The Quick Read: Sellers are giving way on price while borrowing costs keep climbing, and the two forces pull in opposite directions. As of September 28, 2026, Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, the first reading above 7% in about twenty months. Inventory is the widest in years. Negotiate hard on the price, but underwrite your own carrying cost at today’s rates, not last spring’s.
I’ll say it up front: this is a better negotiating market and a worse financing market, both at once. Most buyers I read about are only looking at one of the two.
Key Takeaways
- Freddie Mac’s 30-year average rose for several straight weeks through its September 24 release, up 8 basis points that week alone.
- NAR reported months of supply at 4.9 in August, with inventory above 1.6 million units for the first time since November 2019.
- Redfin’s August report found sellers outnumbering buyers by 58% nationally, the widest gap in its records.
- A price cut is a one-time discount. A higher rate hits every month you own the place.
- The Freddie Mac figure covers conforming primary-home loans. Second-home and non-QM financing prices differently.
What Changed This Month
Rates rose again, and the milestone is real. Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, up from 6.95% the week before. A year earlier it was 6.30%. NPR reported it was the first reading above 7% since January 2025.
How long has the streak run? Sources disagree on the count, and I couldn’t confirm it on a primary source. So I’ll say what I can verify: rates rose for several weeks running. The September 17 reading was up 19 basis points from the week before, per Freddie Mac’s release for that week.
Other gauges run higher. The MBA’s weekly survey, released September 23, put its 30-year contract rate at 7.12% for the week ending September 18, up from 6.97%. Refinance applications were 62% below a year earlier. Unadjusted purchase applications were 11% below.
Why do the numbers differ? They measure different things on different days. Freddie Mac averages a week of conforming purchase applications from borrowers with 20% down and excellent credit. The MBA counts contract rates on applications. Don’t average them. Pick one, note its date, and stay consistent. These specifics are subject to lender guidelines and a full review of property, leverage, and credit.
The Fed moved too, but it isn’t the main story. The Federal Reserve’s implementation note of September 16 raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points, to 3¾ to 4%. That matters, but mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury more than the Fed’s overnight rate. CNBC reported the 10-year reached 5.23% on Friday, September 25, its highest since 2007, after trading just under 4.8% earlier in the month. That is a bigger move than the Fed’s quarter point.
Sellers are softening. NAR’s existing-home sales snapshot, released September 10, showed August sales at a 3.98 million annual pace and inventory at 1.62 million units. Months of supply hit 4.9, up from 4.6 a year earlier. That is a decade-high supply read on one measure, though it’s still well short of a glut.
Redfin’s August buyer-versus-seller report, also out September 10, found 36 of 49 metros were buyer’s markets. Nashville had 139% more sellers than buyers, Miami 138% and Houston 131%. The rest of the top ten sits in the Sun Belt, with four of the ten in Texas. Redfin ties part of that to builder pipelines in Nashville, Texas and Florida.
Those are Redfin’s metros. They are not the country. I won’t present any one market’s gap as typical.
What Does This Mean for Vacation Home Buyers?
You have more room on price and less room on financing. Resort-adjacent Sun Belt metros show some of the widest seller surpluses in Redfin’s data. That gives a buyer leverage on the sticker price, on seller credits and on repairs. It doesn’t make the purchase cheap.
Here’s the catch. Redfin’s own commentary, as reported by Yahoo Finance on September 11, notes that buyers who can’t afford to buy get no benefit from a buyer’s market. Rates and prices are both still high. A buyer’s market describes the ratio of sellers to buyers. It says nothing about affordability.
Vacation homes add their own carrying costs on top of the loan. Redfin flagged rising insurance costs, HOA charges and climate risk for Miami buyers. Those costs don’t fall when the asking price does. Budget for them qualitatively now, then get real quotes before you write an offer.
Second-home financing is its own product. The Freddie Mac survey, per its own methodology, covers conventional, conforming purchase loans with 20% down and excellent credit. It isn’t a second-home rate and it isn’t a non-QM rate. I found no official series for second-home rates. What I can say is that second-home financing generally prices differently from primary-home financing. Anyone quoting you a precise second-home number off a national average is guessing.
The buyer pool skews wealthy. A Redfin analysis of 2025 mortgage data, published July 28, found second-home mortgage purchases rose 4.1% in 2025, the first annual increase in four years. About 85% of vacation-home mortgages went to high earners. Redfin says demand remains low next to pre-pandemic levels. That report is older than a month, so treat it as background. It does explain why some sellers of higher-priced second homes can wait: their buyers are less rate-sensitive.
My Take: Price Cuts Don’t Cancel a Rate Rise
A discount happens once. A rate applies every month. That is the whole argument, and it’s where I think buyers go wrong this fall.
Say a seller drops the price a few percent and you feel like you won. Now run a hypothetical. If a rate moves from 6.5% to 7.5%, the difference is a full point on the balance, charged every month for as long as you hold that loan. A price concession, by contrast, gets paid off in the first negotiation. Over a long hold, the rate usually matters more.
So I’d push back on two common misreadings. One: “Buyer’s market means cheap.” It doesn’t. Two: “The Fed sets my mortgage rate.” It doesn’t either. The Fed’s move was small next to what the 10-year did over four weeks.
Is more inventory the same as better deals? Not necessarily. NAR’s median existing-home price still rose 1.6% to $429,100, per HousingWire’s report on the August data. Redfin’s record buyer’s market reflects fewer buyers as much as more listings. My read: sellers soften on price without prices falling nationally. Individual markets with builder oversupply are different, and that’s where the biggest concessions are showing up.
I’ll admit one thing I can’t call. Will rates keep climbing? CNBC reported that CME FedWatch put the odds of an October hike at 64%. The next FOMC meeting is October 27 to 28. Oil, inflation and debt supply all drive the 10-year, and none is settled. Anyone who tells you where rates go next is selling something.
What I’d Do Now
Run every deal at today’s rate, then test a worse one. Don’t underwrite a vacation home on last spring’s borrowing costs. Take the current market level, add a cushion, and see whether the purchase still works. If it only works at last April’s rate, it doesn’t work.
Negotiate the things that don’t reset. Price is the obvious one. Also ask about seller credits, repairs and closing-cost help. Those are one-time items, which suits a buyer facing higher monthly costs.
Get quotes on the same day. Rates move daily now. A quote from Tuesday and one from Friday aren’t comparable. If you gather offers from several sources, gather them within the same day or two, and compare the terms rather than just the headline number. Mortgage News Daily’s index page is a live feed that reflects the average lender’s top-tier 30-year fixed, and it sits above the weekly averages because it moves faster. It is a data series, not a commitment to lend.
Learn what a lock does. A rate lock holds a quoted rate for a set period so a market move doesn’t change your terms before you finish the purchase. If the numbers work for you today and you like the property, lock it. Floating means betting the market moves your way. After four weeks like this one, I wouldn’t bet on it with money I can’t afford to lose.
Know which product fits. Second homes, investment-use properties and vacation homes with rental income don’t all sit in the same loan category. How you plan to use the property, and whether guests pay to stay, can change how a lender treats the loan. I wrote about how loan status shifts when guests pay for exactly this reason. For buyers who don’t fit a standard box, including self-employed borrowers and investors who qualify on property income, the loan options page carries the current guidelines. Eligibility is subject to lender guidelines, credit review and the property itself.
The Optimal Blue data cited by Stacker on September 28 puts non-QM above 11% of rate locks in August, against 8.34% a year earlier. I only reached that through a syndicated piece, so treat it as context. It suggests more borrowers are landing outside the conforming box.
Watch the ARM pull. The MBA reported adjustable-rate share of applications at 9.8% for the week ending September 18, per MBA Newslink. Its chief economist called the 7.12% contract rate the highest since May 2024. An adjustable loan lowers the starting cost and hands you the risk later. On a vacation home you plan to carry for years, I’d want a clear exit before choosing one.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file.
For the end-to-end picture of how these loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are mortgage rates going up or down right now?
Up, as of the latest readings. Freddie Mac’s survey showed the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, up 8 basis points on the week. The next release is Thursday, October 1, so check it before you assume anything has changed.
Is this a good time to buy a vacation home?
It’s a better time to negotiate and a harder time to finance. Inventory is up, and NAR put months of supply at 4.9 in August. Redfin’s data shows sellers outnumbering buyers in many Sun Belt metros. But higher rates raise the carrying cost of every purchase. Whether it’s good for you depends on whether the numbers still work at today’s rates.
Does the Freddie Mac rate apply to a second home?
No, not directly. Freddie Mac says its survey is built from conforming purchase applications with 20% down and excellent credit. Second-home financing generally prices differently from primary-home financing. Ask for a quote that matches your actual property and use.
Will prices drop because sellers are softening?
Not nationally, based on the August data. NAR’s median price still rose 1.6% year over year. Softness shows up as concessions and longer listings, mostly in markets with heavy new construction. Local conditions decide it, so read your own market’s data.
About Lendmire
Lendmire — NMLS# 2371349 — is a mortgage brokerage whose founder writes this column. DSCR investor programs reach 41 markets, including Washington, D.C.; consumer programs such as bank statement, HELOC and down payment assistance loans are arranged in 16 states; every loan is placed with, and underwritten by, a wholesale lender under that lender’s guidelines. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
1. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
3. MBA Weekly Applications Survey, September 23, 2026
4. Federal Reserve implementation note, September 16, 2026
5. CNBC on the 10-year Treasury, September 26, 2026
6. NAR existing-home sales snapshot, September 10, 2026
7. Redfin analysis of 2025 mortgage data
8. as reported by Yahoo Finance
10. Optimal Blue data cited by Stacker
11. MBA Newslink, September 23, 2026
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: DSCR Loans Florida: Investor Financing for Rental Properties, Airbnb, and Real Estate Investors · DSCR Loans Pigeon Forge: Investor Financing for Dollywood, Cabin STR Properties, The Island, Parkway Corridor & Real Estate Investors · DSCR Loans Walla Walla: Investor Financing for Wine Country STR, Whitman College, Blue Mountains & Real Estate Investors
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
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Legal disclosures. Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) is a state-licensed mortgage brokerage that arranges financing through wholesale lender relationships. Lendmire is not a direct lender, depository institution, or registered financial advisor. The discussion above is general informational content about real estate financing — it is not financial, legal, or tax advice, and readers should consult licensed professionals for guidance on their individual circumstances. Loan inquiries are subject to lender underwriting; this article does not represent a commitment to lend. Loan terms, rates, and qualification standards vary by borrower, property, and state, and are subject to change at any time. Equal Housing Opportunity. NMLS Consumer Access: nmlsconsumeraccess.org.