The Quick Read: The best time to buy is when the payment works for your budget, not when the calendar says inventory peaks. As of September 28, 2026, mortgage rates have climbed for four straight weekly readings. The Fed raised its target range on September 16, and the 10-year Treasury yield has hit its highest level since 2007. If you have a rate you can carry, lock it. Floating in a rising trend is a bet, and the downside can cost you the house.
I’ve spent eighteen years in lending, and the lesson that holds up is this: rates don’t care about your closing date. They move on inflation, Treasury yields and bond-market demand. This column lays out what moved, what it means for buyers, and what I’d do about it.
Key Takeaways
- Freddie Mac’s 30-year average rose four weeks in a row through September 24, a gain of 37 basis points from the week of August 27.
- The Fed hiked on September 16, but mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield and bond spreads, not the Fed’s short-term rate.
- Purchase applications sit well below last year’s level, and refinancing has largely stopped.
- Buyers have room to negotiate on price. Rates are the tight constraint.
- If the payment works today, lock it. If it only works at a lower rate, you have a planning problem, not a timing problem.
What Changed in September
Rates rose every week this month, and the biggest jump came in the middle of the month. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, up from 6.95% the week before. A year earlier, the same survey showed 6.30%. That is 73 basis points higher than a year ago.
A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point. So 100 basis points is a full point.
Here is the run, week by week, from Freddie Mac’s releases:
| Week | 30-year average | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sept. 3 | 6.71% | +5 bp |
| Sept. 10 | 6.76% | +5 bp |
| Sept. 17 | 6.95% | +19 bp |
| Sept. 24 | 7.03% | +8 bp |
The September 17 release was the largest weekly move, up from 6.76%. Going back one more step, the week of August 27 was 6.66%. That makes the four-week climb 37 basis points.
It’s also a longer climb. Freddie Mac’s February 19 release showed 6.01%, the low of the year. From there to 7.03% is roughly 100 basis points.
Other gauges run higher. Mortgage News Daily’s index, which tracks the average lender day by day, showed 7.50% on September 28, its first reading at that level since April 30, 2024. Freddie Mac and Mortgage News Daily measure different things, so don’t compare them line by line. Freddie Mac averages loan applications from the prior Thursday through Wednesday. Mortgage News Daily reflects where lenders are pricing now.
One more caveat on the Freddie Mac number. Its survey covers conventional, conforming, fully amortizing purchase loans for borrowers with strong credit and a large down payment. That is a narrow slice of the market. If your file looks different, your own quote will differ too.
Why Didn’t the Fed Day Pull Rates Down?
The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates. It sets a short-term policy rate, and mortgage rates track longer-term yields.
On September 16, the FOMC statement raised the target range by a quarter point, to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. The vote was 12–0. CNBC reported it was the first hike in more than three years and that 16 of 18 Fed participants expected another increase. Fox Business put the prior range at 3.50% to 3.75%. The last hike before this one came in July 2023.
Then something odd happened. CNBC’s September 17 market coverage noted Treasury yields moved lower after the Fed began its hiking cycle. Yet Freddie Mac’s survey for that week showed mortgage rates up 19 basis points. Part of that is timing. The survey averages the prior week of applications, so it is partly a look-back and only partly reflects the Fed day.
The bigger point is that the Fed and the bond market are separate forces. Yields resumed climbing. By September 24, the 10-year hit its highest level since June 2007. Per CNBC’s September 25 report, the 10-year yield sat at 5.163% that day. You can check the official daily series at FRED.
The Fed chair’s press conference listed reasons for the rise in long-term yields, starting with economic strength. Coverage from TD Economics also pointed to a hotter-than-expected inflation report and higher oil prices. None of that resolves by itself in a week.
What It Means for Home Buyers
Higher rates hurt demand, and the data shows it. The MBA’s weekly survey, released September 23 for the week ending September 18, showed total applications down 1.5%. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index fell 1%. The unadjusted Purchase Index was 11% below the same week a year earlier.
Refinancing has stalled. The MBA’s release had the Refinance Index down 3% for the week and 62% below a year earlier. Three weeks before, in the MBA’s release of September 2, that gap was 19%. Most owners who might have refinanced no longer have a reason to.
Sales are soft. NAR’s existing-home sales report, released September 10, showed sales down 2.0% from the prior month and 1.2% from a year earlier. Inventory rose to 1.62 million homes, or 4.9 months of supply. The median price rose 1.6% to $429,100. NAR’s own line on the relationship is blunt: “Mortgage rates and home sales move in opposite directions.”
New construction tells a messier story. Census reported that August new-home sales rose from July, though Inman noted that the Census Bureau did not consider that monthly change statistically significant. In other words, it’s within the margin of error, so don’t read a rebound into it. The same report said 38% of builders cut prices in September and 66% used incentives.
So buyers have leverage on price and on terms. That leverage is real, particularly in new construction. But it’s a bargaining chip, not a fix for the financing cost.
Is the “Best Week to Buy” Real?
Realtor.com says the week of September 27 through October 3 offers the most favorable mix of inventory, prices and competition this year. Its press release is dated September 10. I think that’s a reasonable read on the for-sale market. More listings and less bidding pressure do help a buyer.
But read the rest of the release. It says rates are elevated versus a year ago and offer little relief. The best-week framing is about offsetting high rates through price and inventory. It doesn’t forecast lower rates. Some readers take “best week to buy” to mean “good conditions overall.” That’s a misreading.
Listing data from Realtor.com also points to a market where sellers are adjusting. Inventory has improved, though it remains below pre-pandemic norms, per Calculated Risk’s summary of Realtor.com data in mid-September. Improving, not flush.
Should You Float or Lock?
A rate lock is an agreement that holds your quoted rate for a set period while your loan moves toward closing. You usually pick it with your loan officer or broker. The terms, including how long it lasts and whether it has any float-down feature, depend on the lender.
Floating means you leave the rate unlocked and watch the market. You’re betting it won’t rise before you lock.
In a rising trend, that is a bet with lopsided odds. I can’t promise rates keep climbing. No one can. But the data from the past month gives you facts to weigh. Four straight weekly increases. A Fed that just hiked, with most of its participants expecting another. A 10-year yield at a multi-decade high.
Now consider the two outcomes. If rates fall a little while you float, you save a bit. If rates rise a little, your cost goes up. If they jump, say 20 or 30 basis points in a week, you can go from a payment that works to one that doesn’t. Freddie Mac recorded a 19-basis-point jump in a single week this month.
The worst case is the one people skip. If your debt-to-income ratio is tight, a rate jump can push you past what the lender’s guidelines allow. Then you don’t just pay more. You lose the deal. Debt-to-income is your monthly debts divided by your monthly gross income, and lenders review it closely. I don’t have a sourced statistic on how many buyers sit near that line, so this is reasoning, not data. But the mechanics are plain.
Two more points on locks:
- Quotes gathered on different days aren’t comparable. If one quote is from September 10 and another is from September 24, the market moved between them. Compare quotes from the same day, on the same terms.
- A lock protects you on the way up, not on the way down. That’s the trade. Some lenders offer a float-down option, usually with conditions. Ask before you lock, not after.
My Take
My read: the buyers waiting for a cut are waiting for something the data doesn’t support. The Fed’s September projections point toward another hike this year. CNBC reported 16 of 18 participants expected one. Waiting for a cut isn’t the base case.
That doesn’t mean rates only go up from here. Yields dipped the day after the Fed decision. Markets turn. A peak could be in already, and I can’t tell you otherwise. What I can tell you is that nobody times this reliably, including economists, and the asymmetry favors locking once your payment works.
I’d also push back on two common ideas.
The first is “I’ll refinance later.” It’s a fair plan if you can afford the payment today. It’s a bad plan if you can only afford the house at a lower rate. Refinancing depends on a lower rate actually becoming available, and refinance activity has dropped sharply from last year’s level for a reason.
The second is “the best-week data says buy now.” The data says conditions for negotiating are decent. It doesn’t say the financing is cheap. Those are different questions, and the answer to the second one is no.
One more view, and this one is a genuine toss-up. Some buyers could reasonably wait through the fall if they have a stable rental situation and no deadline. Inventory is up, and prices are soft. The cost of waiting is real but bearable. The cost of stretching into a payment you can’t carry is not. If you’re in the first group, waiting is a defensible call. If you’re in the second, the math decides, not the calendar.
What I’d Do Now
Start with the payment, not the price. Figure out what monthly cost you can carry comfortably at today’s market level, with room to spare. Then look for homes that fit. Don’t plan around a rate cut that isn’t on the calendar.
Get your quotes on the same day. Ask for the same loan type and terms from each source. A quote from two weeks ago is stale in a market like this one.
Know your debt-to-income position before you shop. If it’s tight, you have little room for a rate jump, and that’s the strongest argument for locking early. Pay down revolving balances if you can, but talk to your broker about what helps and what doesn’t.
Use the seller’s side of the market. Ask for concessions. In new construction, builder incentives can cover part of the financing cost. Builders cut prices and offered incentives in large numbers this month, per the NAHB survey Inman reported on September 25.
Look beyond the standard conventional path if your file calls for it. Self-employed buyers, investors and borrowers with unusual income often fit better in non-QM programs, which qualify on different documentation, subject to lender guidelines. Our loan options page carries the current details for each program. I won’t put program figures in a column. They change, and the page is the source of truth.
If you own a home with equity and want to buy a second property without selling, read our piece on using home equity to purchase a second home. I’d be cautious here. I found no current official dataset on home-equity borrowing, so I’m not going to tell you it’s trending one way or the other. The decision should rest on your own numbers.
Finally, have a plan for after the lock. A lock covers a set period. If your purchase gets delayed, the lock can expire, and you’d re-price at whatever the market is doing then. Ask your broker how extensions work before you need one.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file. You can reach the team at 828-256-2183 or request a quote.
For the end-to-end picture of how DSCR loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Should I lock my mortgage rate now or wait?
Lock if the payment works at the rate you’re quoted. Rates rose four straight weekly readings through September 24 per Freddie Mac, and the Fed signaled another hike. Floating in that setting is more likely to cost you than save you. No one can forecast the next move, so the decision should rest on what you can afford.
Did the Fed’s September hike cause mortgage rates to rise?
Not directly. The Fed raised its short-term target range on September 16, but mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield and bond spreads. Yields fell the day after the Fed decision, while Freddie Mac’s survey for that week still showed a 19-basis-point increase. The two move together over time, but not in lockstep.
Is the week of September 27 really the best time to buy?
For inventory, prices and competition, Realtor.com says yes. Its September 10 release calls it the most favorable mix of the year. But the same release says rates offer little relief. So it’s a good week to negotiate, not a signal that financing has gotten cheaper.
Why is Freddie Mac’s rate different from what I’m quoted?
Freddie Mac’s survey measures a narrow group: conventional, conforming, fully amortizing purchase loans for strong-credit borrowers with a large down payment. It also averages the prior week’s applications. Your quote reflects today’s market, your credit, your property and your loan type. Mortgage News Daily’s index showed the average lender at 7.50% on September 28, which shows how far the gauges can differ.
Is refinancing later a safe plan if I buy now?
It’s an option, not a plan. Refinancing needs a lower rate than the one you have, and nothing in the data says that’s coming soon. The MBA’s September 23 release put the Refinance Index 62% below a year earlier. Buy a payment you can carry without the refinance.
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Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) is a non-QM mortgage brokerage arranging DSCR investor loans in 41 markets — 40 states plus Washington, D.C. — and consumer mortgage programs, including bank statement, HELOC and down payment assistance options, in 16 states through wholesale lenders. Lendmire is the broker, never the lender; every file is underwritten by the lender under its own guidelines. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
1. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
2. Freddie Mac, September 17, 2026 release
3. Freddie Mac, February 19, 2026 release
4. Federal Reserve FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
5. CNBC, Fed rate decision, September 16, 2026
6. CNBC, Treasury yields, September 25, 2026
7. MBA Weekly Applications Survey, September 23, 2026
8. Inman, new-home sales, September 25, 2026
9. PR Newswire — Realtor.com September 27th October 3rd Marks the Best Time to Buy a Home in 2026
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: How A Mortgage Works In A September Rate Climb: If You Like It, Lock It? · September Homebuyer Checklist: Lock The Rate Before The Trend Bites · Home Buying In Autumn 2026: Rates Are Climbing, And Floating Is A Bet
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
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Compliance and disclosures. Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) is a licensed mortgage broker and is not a direct lender, depository institution, financial advisor, or tax professional. Content in this article is general market analysis and educational information — not financial, legal, or tax advice for any specific situation. Lendmire does not guarantee loan approval; every transaction is subject to underwriting by the funding lender. Mortgage pricing and loan program guidelines are subject to change at any time without notice and vary by borrower characteristics, property type, and state regulations. Lendmire complies with Equal Housing Opportunity. Licensure verification: NMLS Consumer Access.