The Quick Read: rates moved against buyers for four straight weeks, the Fed just hiked for the first time since 2023, and existing-home sales slipped under 4 million. My answer, as of September 26, 2026: stop collecting quotes and lock. The cost of waiting has already outrun the savings most buyers were chasing.
If you’ve been gathering rate quotes since August hoping the market softens, here’s the direct answer: it hasn’t, and the data says it’s not likely to soon. Lock when you have a strong number in hand. Don’t keep shopping for a better one that may not show up.
What Changed
Mortgage rates climbed every week this September, and the move has been sharp enough to change the calculus for anyone still comparison-shopping. Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, 2026, up from 6.95% the week before. Go back four weeks and the climb is a straight line: 6.71% on September 3, 6.76% on September 10, 6.95% on September 17, 7.03% on September 24. That’s a nearly uninterrupted rise through the entire month.
Daily pricing moved even faster than Freddie’s weekly survey. Mortgage News Daily’s index closed at 7.45% on September 24 and ticked up again to 7.49% the next day. Their own reporting flagged that daily rates broke 7% back on September 10 — two weeks before the weekly average caught up. If you were checking Freddie’s number and thinking rates were still in the 6.9s, you were looking at old data.
Behind the mortgage market sits the bond market, and it’s been ugly. The 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 5.17% on September 25, per TradingEconomics — near its highest level since the mid-2000s. That yield has been rising since late August, and it’s the engine pulling mortgage rates up with it.
Then came the policy shock. On September 16, 2026, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range a quarter point, to 3.75%-4%. That’s the first hike since 2023 — a reversal, not a continuation, after two years of cuts. Markets are now pricing in another quarter-point move in December, with more possible into 2027. This wasn’t a garden-variety adjustment. It was a regime change, and a lot of buyers who’d gotten used to falling-rate headlines weren’t positioned for it.
Sales activity is already responding. NAR reported existing-home sales fell 2.0% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million — the first sub-4-million print since June 2025. Inventory rose to 1.62 million units, a 4.9-month supply, the highest in over a decade. Home prices have continued to climb modestly year over year even as the market cools. Per the MBA’s weekly survey for the week ending September 11, mortgage applications fell 4.1% as average conforming 30-year rates moved higher; the MBA’s following week’s survey showed applications down again as rates climbed further. Refinance activity is down sharply from a year ago — nobody’s refinancing into this.
New-home sales did jump 6.4% in August to a seasonally adjusted rate of 684,000. But the Census Bureau itself flags that move as not statistically significant given the margin of error on the monthly change. Builders are leaning on incentives to move inventory — 38% offering price cuts, 66% using some form of sales incentive, the highest share since December. That’s a builder discount market, not proof the broader housing slowdown has turned a corner.
What I’m Seeing
I quoted a client about six months ago. He agreed it was a strong number. He kept shopping anyway, hoping for something better.
Three months later he came back. I quoted him again. The market had moved about half a point higher in the meantime. He kept shopping.
Three months after that, he’s back a third time. The market is now a full point above where I first quoted him. He’s kicking himself for not taking that first number when he had it.
That’s not a one-off. It’s the pattern I see most often with buyers who treat rate-shopping like a project with no deadline. In a rising-rate environment, time isn’t neutral. It’s a cost.
I also see the spreadsheet problem constantly — clients showing up with quotes from twenty or thirty lenders, collected over weeks. One lender on a Tuesday, two more Thursday, another batch the following Monday. The problem is that rates move daily, and we’re in a rising environment right now. Quotes gathered over three weeks aren’t comparable to each other. You’re not comparing lenders at that point — you’re comparing different days in a moving market, and the spreadsheet can’t tell you that.
I get the instinct. Everybody wants to save money. But the spreadsheet is fighting the market, and the market usually wins.
What It Means For Home Buyers
The math on waiting has flipped. Buyers who assumed rates would keep drifting down, the way they had through parts of 2024 and 2025, are now watching that assumption get contradicted in real time by a Fed that just hiked instead of cutting. Mortgage applications fell for two straight weeks in September as rates rose, which tells you plenty of buyers are already pulling back rather than locking in.
Here’s the part that gets missed: more inventory doesn’t mean lower rates. NAR’s 4.9-month supply is genuinely useful for negotiating leverage — more homes to choose from, more room to ask for concessions. But it has nothing to do with what the loan costs. Those are two separate levers, and conflating them is a common mistake. You can have real bargaining power on price and still be facing a materially higher rate than you’d have gotten in August.
The refinance data is the tell. When refinance volume drops 65% year over year while purchase demand only softens modestly, that tells you existing homeowners with locked-in low rates aren’t going anywhere. They’re not listing, because moving means trading their old rate for whatever’s on offer today. That’s the “lock-in effect,” and it’s part of why inventory, even at a decade-high level, still isn’t loosening up the way you’d expect.
My Take
I think most buyers overvalue the marginal savings from one more quote and underestimate the cost of the market moving against them while they collect it. That’s not a knock on shopping around — it’s smart to get a handful of quotes from reputable lenders. Research them properly; a tool like ChatGPT, Claude, Google or Perplexity can help you vet a lender’s standing in minutes. Get three, four, five real quotes. Then decide.
What doesn’t help is thirty or fifty quotes. Past a certain point you’re not learning anything new about the market — you’re just burning weeks while the market moves on without you. Once you’ve talked to a handful of reputable lenders, you know roughly where the market sits. Stop shopping. Start locking.
The line I keep coming back to: you can lose thousands of dollars trying to save a couple hundred. A quarter point on a mortgage compounds over the life of the loan in a way that dwarfs whatever marginal discount you were chasing from lender number thirty-one.
What I’d Do Now
If you have a quote you’re comfortable with, from a lender you’ve actually vetted, my advice is to lock it. Not because I can promise rates will keep rising — nobody can — but because the trend this month has been consistently one direction, and the Fed just signaled it’s not done. Waiting to see if rates soften is a bet, and right now the data doesn’t favor that bet.
If you haven’t started shopping yet, do it with a plan. Pick a handful of reputable lenders, get quotes within the same short window (same day or two, ideally, given how fast daily pricing moves), compare them apples to apples, and decide. Don’t let the process drag into weeks.
As a broker, we work with the majority of DSCR lenders and the majority of bank-statement lenders in the non-QM space, which takes a lot of the shopping burden off self-employed and investor borrowers specifically — they don’t need to call thirty lenders because we already know who’s active and competent in that lane. For anyone weighing options across purchase, refinance or investor programs, the current loan options page lays out what each program is reviewed on.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how current programs fit your file — no rate promises, just a clear read on what’s available.
For self-employed buyers specifically, keeping your finances clean matters more than ever in this rate environment — it pays to keep inter-company transfers off a second home bank statement if you’re managing multiple properties or business accounts alongside a home purchase.
For the end-to-end picture of how DSCR loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Should I lock my rate right now or wait to see if rates come down?
Lock it if you have a quote you trust from a lender you’ve vetted. The trend through September has been up for four straight weeks per Freddie Mac’s survey, and the Fed just hiked instead of cutting for the first time since 2023. Waiting on a hope that rates reverse is a bet against the current data, not a strategy backed by it.
How many mortgage quotes should I actually get?
A handful — three to five from reputable, vetted lenders is plenty. Thirty or fifty quotes doesn’t get you a better deal; it just burns weeks while the market moves. Get your quotes within a tight window, ideally the same day or two, since rates move daily and quotes gathered over separate weeks aren’t comparable.
Does more housing inventory mean I’ll get a lower rate?
No. Inventory and rates are separate. NAR reported a 4.9-month supply in August, the highest in over a decade, which gives buyers more negotiating room on price. But the rate you’re quoted depends on the bond market and lender pricing that day, not on how many homes are listed.
Why did mortgage rates jump so much this September?
The 10-year Treasury yield has been climbing, sitting near 5.17% as of September 25, and the Fed’s September 16 rate hike reinforced the move. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey shows the 30-year fixed rising from 6.71% on September 3 to 7.03% by September 24 — a steady four-week climb, not a single-week spike.
Is now a bad time to buy because sales are falling?
Falling sales volume (NAR reported 3.98 million in August, the first sub-4-million reading since June 2025) reflects buyers pulling back at these rates, not necessarily bad conditions for you individually. Inventory is up and sellers have more competition for buyers, which can work in a prepared buyer’s favor even as overall volume slows.
About Lendmire
As a mortgage broker (NMLS# 2371349), Lendmire arranges DSCR investor loans in 40 states plus Washington, D.C. — 41 markets — and, on its consumer platform, bank statement, home equity and down payment assistance financing in 16 states, through wholesale lenders. Lendmire never underwrites or funds a loan itself. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
2. Federal Reserve FOMC statement
3. NAR Existing-Home Sales report
4. 2025
5. 2026
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: How To Get Pre-Approved For a Mortgage · How Long Does It Take To Buy a House? · 5 Strategies To Save For a Home
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
- Mortgage Loan Originator · NMLS# 1129696 · Verify on NMLS Consumer Access
- North Carolina Real Estate Broker · License# 343312 · Verify on NCREC
- North Carolina Insurance Producer · License# 19053198 · Property, Casualty, Life, Health · Verify on NAIC SBS
- Lendmire LLC · Firm NMLS# 2371349 · Verify firm licensure
Compliance and disclosures. Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) is a licensed mortgage broker and is not a direct lender, depository institution, financial advisor, or tax professional. Content in this article is general market analysis and educational information — not financial, legal, or tax advice for any specific situation. Lendmire does not guarantee loan approval; every transaction is subject to underwriting by the funding lender. Mortgage pricing and loan program guidelines are subject to change at any time without notice and vary by borrower characteristics, property type, and state regulations. Lendmire complies with Equal Housing Opportunity. Licensure verification: NMLS Consumer Access.