The Quick Read: As of September 28, 2026, borrowing costs are moving the wrong way, and you can’t control that. Freddie Mac’s survey rose for the third straight release on September 24, and the Fed raised its target range on September 16. What you can control is the part of your file a lender reads first: your credit. Pay balances down, protect your payment history, and treat every new account as a risk until you close.
Key Takeaways
- Freddie Mac’s weekly survey rose in the releases of September 10, 17 and 24. The September 24 reading was the first above 7% since January 2025.
- The Fed raised rates on September 16 for the first time since July 2023. Markets were pricing better-than-even odds of another hike in October.
- You can’t move the market. You can move your balances, your payment record and your application timing.
- The lender picks the scoring model, not you. Habits that lift every model beat chasing one number.
- Rate locks matter more in a rising market. Prepare your file first, then lock when the numbers work.
What Changed in September
Rates rose three weeks running in Freddie Mac’s survey. Here is the sequence, with dates.
Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24. The prior week averaged 6.95%, and a year earlier the figure was 6.30%. That is up 73 basis points in twelve months. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.
The week before, the survey jumped 19 basis points to 6.95% from 6.76%. Realtor.com’s Anthony Smith called that the largest one-week move since April 2025, as Fox Business reported. The September 10 release was a smaller step, from 6.71% to 6.76%.
One caveat matters for you. Freddie Mac says its survey is built around conventional, conforming purchase loans for borrowers with 20% down and excellent credit. It is a benchmark, not a quote. Mortgage News Daily, which tracks a daily index, put its reading at 7.45% on September 24 and noted that Freddie’s weekly number lags. Different measures, different days, different borrowers. Don’t expect any of them to match what a lender shows you. Terms vary by lender guidelines, property type, leverage, credit profile, and full file review.
The Fed moved next. The Federal Reserve’s FOMC statement on September 16 raised the target range by a quarter point, to 3¾–4%. The vote was 12–0, and the statement said inflation remains elevated. CNBC reported it was the first hike since July 2023, and that 16 of 18 policymakers expected another one.
Then the bond market took over. The 10-year Treasury yield, which mortgage rates tend to follow, hit 5.23% on September 25, CNBC reported. It was just below 4.8% earlier in the month. CNBC also cited a 64% market-implied chance of an October hike. The next FOMC meeting is October 28.
Does the Fed Set Your Mortgage Rate?
No. The Fed sets a short-term target. Mortgage rates follow longer-term yields, and those respond to inflation, bond supply and oil. CNBC’s reporting shows the 10-year moved lower right after the September 16 hike, then spiked a week later.
That is why the headline “the Fed hiked, so mortgages rose” is only half right. The Fed added to the pressure. The bond market did the rest.
Why Credit Matters More When Rates Climb
Here is the core of my argument. In a falling market, a weak spot in your credit can hide behind a decent rate. In a rising market, it can’t.
Take a plain hypothetical. If a rate moves from 6.5% to 7%, that is half a point, and it costs you the same whether you shopped well or badly. Now stack a credit weakness on top. A lender pricing a file with high revolving balances or a recent late payment adds risk to the price. The two costs compound.
Waiting also has a cost. Every week you spend rebuilding credit is a week the market keeps moving. I can’t tell you where rates go next, and neither can anyone quoted above. CNBC’s own reporting shows analysts split on whether inflation or heavy bond issuance is driving yields. PNC’s economists expected no move in October. Market pricing said otherwise.
So the sensible plan has two tracks. Work on what you control. Stay ready to act when the numbers work for your budget.
What the Score-Model Changes Mean for You
You may have seen headlines about a new credit score. Here is what is actually confirmed.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency says that on September 9, 2026, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac opened VantageScore 4.0 to all approved lenders. Lenders no longer need prior approval to use it on loans they sell to those two companies. VantageScore’s own release, dated September 4, claims its model scores about 33 million more adults than older models. That is a vendor claim, so treat it as one.
What has not changed matters as much. Secondary reporting says lenders still pull credit from all three bureaus. A consumer explainer dated September 19 says FICO 10T is not yet eligible for delivery to the two companies. And the lender, not the borrower, chooses which model to use.
My read: don’t try to game a model you don’t control. Build habits that lift your score under every model. Pay on time. Lower revolving balances. Keep old accounts in good standing. Fix errors. Those work whichever number your lender pulls.
What It Means for Home Buyers
The housing data shows a market that is stalled, not collapsing.
The National Association of Realtors reported on September 10 that August existing-home sales ran at a 3.98 million annual pace. That was down 2.0% from July and down 1.2% from a year earlier. Inventory reached 1.62 million homes, or 4.9 months of supply, which NAR’s Lawrence Yun called the highest in over ten years. The median price was $429,100, up 1.6% from a year ago.
That is the third straight monthly sales decline. NAR reported drops of 2.4% in June and 1.7% in July. Pending sales did tick up 0.3% in August, which suggests buyers haven’t left entirely.
Demand is thinner because financing costs more. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey, published September 23 for the week ending September 18, showed purchase applications 11% below a year earlier on an unadjusted basis. The composite index fell 1.5% on the week. The MBA’s own 30-year contract rate, which includes points, rose to 7.12% from 6.97%.
There is a silver lining for buyers with prepared files. More inventory means more choice and more room to negotiate. Census data released September 24 showed new-home sales at 684,000 on an annual pace, and Inman reported that 38% of builders offered price cuts in September and 66% used incentives. The monthly sales change wasn’t statistically significant, so read that as a mood, not a trend.
Sellers are giving ground on price and terms. That helps you only if you can qualify cleanly.
My Take
Here’s my opinion, labeled as one. Most buyers spend too much energy predicting rates and too little on their own file.
I can’t predict the October Fed meeting. Nobody can, and the forecasters disagree with each other. But I know how a lender reads a file. Balances, payment history and recent credit activity are the first things on the page. Those are in your hands. The market isn’t.
I’d also push back on two common ideas. The first: “Improving credit is a slow, multi-year project.” Sometimes it is. But I won’t promise a timeline, because no source in my research supports one, and your starting point decides the answer. What I will say is that some steps start helping your file as soon as your creditors report the change. Others, like rebuilding a thin history, take real time.
The second: “Rates just crossed 7%.” Mortgage News Daily says its daily index first broke 7% on September 10. Freddie Mac’s weekly average crossed it on September 24. Both are true. Neither is your rate.
Some buyers will read this and decide to wait for the market to calm down. That is a reasonable choice. Just make it on purpose, and use the waiting time to improve your file rather than to refresh a rate tracker.
What Should I Fix First?
Start with the things a lender can see in a single pull. Here is the order I’d work in.
1. Pull all three credit reports and read them line by line. Look for accounts you don’t recognize, balances that are wrong, and late payments that never happened. Errors are the one problem you can dispute with the bureau and creditor directly. Start here because it can take the longest to resolve.
2. Protect your payment history. Don’t miss a due date. Set every account to autopay at least the minimum. One new late payment can undo months of careful work, and lenders look for recent ones.
3. Pay down revolving balances. Credit card balances relative to their limits weigh on your score. Paying them down is the most direct lever most buyers have. Target the cards with the highest balance-to-limit ratio first.
4. Hold off on new credit. Don’t open a card, finance a car or co-sign a loan while you’re shopping for a mortgage. New accounts and hard inquiries can change your file mid-process. Buyers get caught by this more than any other mistake.
5. Keep old accounts open and in good standing. Closing a long-standing card can shorten your history and shrink your available credit. Leave it alone unless it carries a fee you can’t justify.
6. Track your debt load, not just your score. Your monthly obligations relative to income matter separately from your score. A higher score doesn’t erase a heavy debt load, and a modest score isn’t always a dealbreaker if the rest of the file is strong.
7. Don’t stop at closing day. Lenders can re-check your credit before closing. A new account or a missed payment between approval and closing can change the outcome.
Should I Lock My Rate Now or Float?
A rate lock is an agreement that holds your quoted rate for a set period while your loan is processed. Floating means you leave it unlocked and take whatever the market does.
In a rising market, floating is a bet that rates will fall before you close. Sometimes that bet pays. Sometimes it doesn’t. My rule of thumb: if the numbers work for your budget, lock. If you like it, lock it.
One practical point for rate shopping. Quotes gathered on different days aren’t comparable, because the market moves daily and sometimes within the day. Get your quotes on the same day, using the same assumptions, or you’re comparing the market’s mood, not the lenders.
Prepare the file first, then lock. Locking before your credit is ready means you might need to extend or re-lock if something changes, and lenders don’t treat that as a formality.
Which Loan Types Fit Different Credit Profiles?
Different programs weigh credit differently. Some lean heavily on your score and your income documents. Others look at different parts of the file. Which one fits depends on your situation, and eligibility stays subject to lender guidelines.
If you’re weighing your options, the loan options page carries the current guidelines. I’m not going to recite figures here, because programs change and that page is the source of truth.
Two related notes for borrowers whose situations differ from a standard purchase. If you own a home and are thinking about tapping equity, the credit question looks a little different. I’ve covered the minimum credit score question for a cash-out refinance separately. If you’re self-employed, income documentation shapes the process, and lenders see that borrower differently. I wrote separately about the credit score a self-employed borrower needs for a HELOC too.
One data point on the wider market: MCT’s September 28 update says bank-statement loans for self-employed borrowers are performing worse than full-doc and DSCR loans. That is one valuation firm’s opinion, not a regulator’s finding. But it hints that lenders may look harder at self-employed files. If that’s you, clean credit and tidy documentation matter even more.
A Word on Timing
I’d rather be direct. If your credit needs serious repair, buying this fall may not be realistic, and that is fine. A weaker file and a rising market is a poor combination to rush.
But if your credit is decent and you’re carrying a few high card balances or an unreviewed error, you may be closer than you think. That is the group I’d urge to act now. The work is simple. It just requires doing it before you apply, not after.
Prepare, then decide. Don’t let a headline decide for you.
Ready to Talk It Through?
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file. Call 828-256-2183 or request a quote. We work with a range of lenders, so we can compare options for your situation.
For the end-to-end picture of how these loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Should I wait to buy until rates come down?
That depends on your budget and your tolerance for risk, and I can’t call the market. Freddie Mac’s survey has risen three releases running, and analysts cited by CNBC disagree on what comes next. If waiting is your choice, use the time to strengthen your credit and cut debt. Those gains stay with you whatever rates do.
Is Freddie Mac’s 7.03% the rate I’ll be offered?
No. Freddie Mac says its survey reflects conventional, conforming purchase loans for borrowers with 20% down and excellent credit. Lower scores or smaller down payments can price differently, and rates shift daily. Treat the survey as a market barometer, not a quote. Exact terms depend on the lender’s guidelines, property type, leverage, and a full review of the borrower’s file.
Can I choose which credit score model my lender uses?
No. The lender picks it. FHFA opened VantageScore 4.0 to all approved lenders on September 9, but lenders adopt at different speeds, and FICO 10T is not yet eligible for delivery to the two big mortgage companies. Focus on habits that help every model, such as on-time payments and lower balances.
Should I close old credit cards before applying?
Usually not. Closing a long-held card can shorten your credit history and reduce your available credit, both of which can hurt. The exception is a card with a fee you can’t justify. Talk to a loan officer before closing anything during the shopping period.
Should I apply for new credit to build my score before buying?
Be careful. New accounts and hard inquiries can change your file, and buyers get caught by that. If your history is thin, ask a loan officer how to build it without disrupting an application. Once you’re in the process, avoid new debt until after closing.
About Lendmire
Lendmire, NMLS# 2371349, is a mortgage broker with two platforms: DSCR investor lending across 41 markets, including Washington, D.C., and consumer mortgage programs in 16 states, all arranged through wholesale lending partners. This column is written by Lendmire’s founder and reflects the market as of its publication date; program terms and availability are set by the lender on each file. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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Informational only. Not a Loan Estimate, approval, or commitment to lend. Program availability and eligibility are subject to lender guidelines, credit approval, property review, and underwriting.
References
1. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
2. Freddie Mac release, September 17, 2026
3. Fox Business, mortgage rates, September 24, 2026
4. Federal Reserve FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
5. CNBC, Fed rate decision, September 16, 2026
6. CNBC, 10-year Treasury yield, September 26, 2026
7. NAR Existing-Home Sales, August 2026
8. MBA Weekly Applications Survey, September 23, 2026
9. Inman, new-home sales, September 25, 2026
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: Conventional Mortgage Requirements Have A New Problem This Fall · Easy Storage Solutions for the Homeowner · What Your First Mortgage Consultation Should Cover This Fall?
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
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Legal disclosures. Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) is a state-licensed mortgage brokerage that arranges financing through wholesale lender relationships. Lendmire is not a direct lender, depository institution, or registered financial advisor. The discussion above is general informational content about real estate financing — it is not financial, legal, or tax advice, and readers should consult licensed professionals for guidance on their individual circumstances. Loan inquiries are subject to lender underwriting; this article does not represent a commitment to lend. Loan terms, rates, and qualification standards vary by borrower, property, and state, and are subject to change at any time. Equal Housing Opportunity. NMLS Consumer Access: nmlsconsumeraccess.org.