The Quick Read: As of September 28, 2026, borrowing costs are climbing and your monthly payment is harder to predict. The Fed raised its target range on September 16, and Freddie Mac’s 30-year average has now risen five weeks in a row. Higher costs mean your savings plan has to cover a bigger payment. Rising inventory and builder incentives are the openings to watch.
What Changed This Month?
The short version: rates rose before the Fed acted, then rose again after. The Fed’s move was one piece of a bigger repricing.
The Federal Reserve’s statement on September 16 raised the target range by a quarter point, to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. The vote was 12–0. The statement says inflation remains elevated. This was the first hike in more than three years, per CNBC’s coverage, and 16 of 18 participants expect another one.
Now the mortgage side. Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, up from 6.95% the week before. A year earlier it was 6.30%. That is up 73 basis points in twelve months.
The path matters. The September 17 print jumped 19 basis points, the first reading after the Fed acted. September 24 added 8 more. Early in the month, the September 3 reading was 6.71%, up only 5 basis points. So this is a five-week climb, not a one-week spike.
Two housekeeping notes. Freddie’s survey covers conventional purchase loans for borrowers with 20% down and excellent credit. It is a market gauge, not a quote for anyone in particular. And other publishers land elsewhere by design: Mortgage News Daily’s index read 7.43% on September 25, a different method on a different day. Exact terms depend on the lender’s guidelines, property type, leverage, and a full review of the borrower’s file.
Key Takeaways
- Freddie Mac’s 30-year average has risen five straight weeks, to 7.03% for the week of September 24, 2026.
- The Fed hiked on September 16, but long-term yields were already climbing. The 10-year Treasury sits above 5%.
- Existing-home supply hit its highest level in over a decade, per NAR’s September 10 report.
- Builders are cutting prices and offering incentives. Those deals have strings.
- Your budget should hold up if rates go higher, not just today’s level.
Did the Fed Push Mortgage Rates Up?
Partly. Mostly not. The Fed sets a short-term rate. Mortgage pricing follows longer-term yields, and the 10-year Treasury is the usual benchmark.
CNBC reported that the 10-year was trading just below 4.8% earlier in September. By September 25, CNBC put it at 5.163%, after touching its highest level since June 2007 the day before. On September 28 it was up more than 5 basis points at 5.234% intraday, per CNBC. That is roughly a 40 basis point climb in a month, against a 25 basis point Fed move.
The drivers CNBC cites: sticky inflation, heavy bond supply, and fiscal worries. University of Michigan year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.6% in September from 4% in August. Markets had priced the hike well before the meeting. Rates started rising before the Fed acted.
Here’s my read. Stop waiting for “the Fed’s next move” as your signal. Long yields have their own drivers, and they haven’t been taking cues from the Fed’s schedule.
Is Another Hike Coming?
Possibly. CNBC’s September 26 piece cited a 64% likelihood of an October hike. The Fed meets next on October 28. The October 14 CPI report could shift those odds either way.
There is a wrinkle. J.P. Morgan Asset Management noted that the median projection shows no change in 2027. So the hikes may be a short burst rather than a long campaign. Nobody knows.
That uncertainty is the point. If you can’t forecast the path, plan for a range of outcomes.
What Does This Mean for Home Buyers?
Your monthly payment is less predictable, and demand is already softening. The MBA’s weekly survey, released September 23, covered the week ending September 18. Purchase applications fell 1% on a seasonally adjusted basis and ran 11% below a year earlier. Refinance applications were 62% lower than a year ago.
Buyers are pulling back. That’s the demand side. The supply side is shifting too.
Existing homes: more choice
NAR’s August report, released September 10, showed existing-home sales fell 2.0% from July, to a 3.98 million annual pace. Inventory rose to 1.62 million homes, a 4.9-month supply. That is up from 4.6 months in July. NAR’s chief economist called it the highest supply level in over ten years and said it gives buyers better chances to negotiate.
But prices haven’t broken. NAR’s median price was still up 1.6% from a year earlier, the 38th straight annual gain. More supply is not the same as falling prices.
And a caution on “buyer’s market.” Realtor.com’s seasonal analysis says active listings remain about 11% below pre-pandemic levels nationally. It also expects the week of September 27 to October 3 to have 13.3% more active listings than the average week. Its model is seasonal. It does not account for rates.
New homes: the builder pitch
The Census Bureau’s new residential sales report, released September 24, showed August sales at a 684,000 annual rate. That is up 6.4% from July but 2.0% below August 2025. The margins of error are wide. Supply was 8.5 months, and the median new-home price of $393,700 was down 5.8% from a year earlier.
Builders are working hard to move product. Per Inman’s report on the NAHB survey, 38% of builders cut prices in September, up from 35%. And 66% used sales incentives, the highest share since December. HousingWire quoted Cotality’s chief economist estimating that roughly 80–90% of new-home sales now involve mortgage-rate buydowns. That is one economist’s estimate, not a survey.
Read the headline gain with care. Inman notes the sales increase was not statistically significant.
My Take
Two things are true at once. Costs went up. Leverage for buyers went up too.
I don’t think the answer is to rush or to freeze. The buyers who do well this fall will be the ones who stress-tested a budget before they fell in love with a house.
On builder deals, I’d be skeptical of anything that looks like free money. A buydown is a cost that moves somewhere: into the price, or into the builder’s margin. HousingWire’s analysis flags that thinning margins make the durability of that support the key risk. A deal that depends on the builder’s generosity next quarter is not something to build your budget around. Shop the price and the financing together, not one at a time.
And on inventory: it’s a real opening, but a local one. National averages hide big differences between markets. What the country’s supply looks like tells you little about the street you’re shopping.
Here is where I honestly go back and forth. Waiting has a case: more listings, more concessions, maybe a softer market in winter. Buying now has a case too: less competition than a normal spring, and a chance to refinance later if rates fall. Nobody can time it. What you can control is whether your budget survives the wrong guess.
What I’d Do Now
Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or to wait. It’s how I’d prepare either way.
1. Rebuild your budget around a higher payment. Use today’s market level as a floor, not a ceiling. If a rate moves from 7% to 8%, that is a full point, and it changes what a given price costs you every month. Build a budget that still works at the higher figure.
2. Let savings cover the gap. If you’ve been saving toward a purchase, your discipline now has to fund a bigger payment as well as a down payment and cash reserves. Keep the emergency fund separate. Don’t drain it to close a gap.
3. Tighten your file before you shop. Pay down revolving balances, avoid new credit, and keep your income documentation clean. Buyers with documentation that’s easy to follow have an easier path. If you’re self-employed or your income is uneven, tell your broker early. Programs for flexible documentation exist, though availability shifts with the market. Our loan options page carries the current guidelines, subject to lender guidelines and your file.
4. Compare quotes on the same day. A quote is a snapshot. Rates move daily, sometimes hourly. Two quotes gathered a week apart are not comparable. Gather them within the same day, on the same loan structure, and compare the full cost, not just one number.
5. Know what a lock does. A rate lock holds your pricing for a set period so a move in the market doesn’t change your terms. If your budget only works at a specific level and you’ve found the house, lock. If you’re months out, floating is a bet. Only float if you can afford to lose it. If you like it, lock it.
6. Use the openings. Rising inventory can give you room to negotiate on price, repairs, or closing credits on resale homes. On new construction, ask exactly what the incentive is, who pays for it, and what happens to the price without it.
7. Watch four dates. NAR’s next existing-home sales report is October 13. CPI lands October 14. The Fed meets October 28. Freddie Mac’s survey publishes every week. These will tell you more than any headline.
Investors weighing rentals face the same rate pressure. If that’s you, start by preparing the documents a jumbo DSCR rental loan file needs.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file. Call 828-256-2183 or request a quote.
For the end-to-end picture of how these loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the 7.03% figure mean I’ll pay 7.03%?
No. Freddie Mac’s survey for the week of September 24 covers conventional purchase loans for borrowers with 20% down and excellent credit. Your own pricing depends on your credit, down payment, property, loan type and the day you lock. Use it as a market gauge, then get a real quote. Every figure here varies by lender and program — guidelines, property type, leverage, and credit profile all apply.
Is this a buyer’s market now?
Not everywhere. NAR’s September 10 report shows supply at 4.9 months, the highest in over ten years, which helps buyers negotiate. But Realtor.com says active listings are still about 11% below pre-pandemic levels nationally, and NAR’s median price is still rising. It varies a lot by local market.
Are builder incentives worth taking?
Sometimes. Buydowns and price cuts can help, but they aren’t free. The cost moves into the price or the builder’s margin. Ask for the incentive and the price without it in writing, then compare both against a resale home. HousingWire flags that thinning margins put the durability of these deals at risk.
What should I watch in October?
Three things. CPI on October 14, NAR’s existing-home sales report on October 13, and the Fed’s meeting on October 28. CME FedWatch showed a 64% chance of an October hike as of CNBC’s September 26 report, so a surprise either way could move yields.
About Lendmire
Lendmire, NMLS# 2371349, is a mortgage broker with two platforms: DSCR investor lending across 41 markets, including Washington, D.C., and consumer mortgage programs in 16 states, all arranged through wholesale lending partners. This column is written by Lendmire’s founder and reflects the market as of its publication date; program terms and availability are set by the lender on each file. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
1. Federal Reserve FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
3. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
4. CNBC: 10-year Treasury yield, September 26, 2026
6. CNBC
7. J.P. Morgan Asset Management
8. MBA Weekly Applications Survey, September 23, 2026
9. NAR existing-home sales report, August 2026
10. Inman: August new-home sales, September 25, 2026
12. HousingWire: builder buydowns, September 24, 2026
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
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Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
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Important disclosures. Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) is a licensed mortgage brokerage. Lendmire is not a direct lender, depository institution, or financial advisor. All loan inquiries are subject to lender underwriting; this article does not constitute a commitment to lend. Rates, terms, and program guidelines are subject to change without notice and vary by borrower profile, property type, and state. Information in this article is general in nature and is not financial, legal, or tax advice. Equal Housing Opportunity. NMLS Consumer Access: nmlsconsumeraccess.org.