The Quick Read: Sellers are giving ground while borrowing costs climb, and the second force is beating the first. As of September 28, 2026, supply is at its deepest in over a decade and buyers hold real leverage in a lot of metros. But the 10-year Treasury sits at levels not seen since 2007, and financing cost, not the sticker price, now decides what a big purchase really costs.
Key Takeaways
- NAR’s August report shows a 4.9-month supply, the highest in over a decade, and the median price still up on the year.
- Redfin found 36 of 49 metros were buyer’s markets in August, all ten of the strongest in the Sun Belt.
- The Fed raised its target range on September 16, its first hike since 2023, and the 10-year Treasury has since hit a 19-year high.
- Freddie Mac’s benchmark measures conforming loans only. It says little about what a large loan will cost.
- Negotiate hard on price, but treat the financing as the larger variable.
What Changed?
The short answer: more homes for sale, higher borrowing costs, and a Fed that moved the wrong way for buyers.
Start with supply. NAR’s August existing-home sales report, released September 10, 2026, showed sales down 2.0% on the month to a 3.98 million annual rate. Inventory reached 1.62 million units. That is a 4.9-month supply, the highest in over a decade. The median price was $429,100, up 1.6% on the year and the 38th straight annual gain.
Read that twice. Supply is up, sales are soft, and prices are still rising nationally. All three are true at once.
Redfin’s buyer’s-market report, published September 10, 2026, adds the local picture. Redfin found 36 of the 49 metros it analyzed were buyer’s markets in August. All of the top ten are in the Sun Belt, and four are in Texas. Nashville and Miami sit near the top of that list. Redfin ties part of the softness to buyers being priced out, especially in Miami, where insurance costs, HOA fees and climate risk are rising.
One caution. None of these sources isolates luxury or high-end homes. I found no high-end-specific inventory or price series in the window. So the leverage story for expensive homes is my inference from all-price-tier data. I think it’s a fair inference. It is still an inference.
Now the cost of money. Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, 2026, up from 6.95% the week before. A year earlier it averaged 6.30%. Over four weeks the average rose 37 basis points, from 6.66% in the week of August 27. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point, so 37 of them is a bit over a third of a point.
Mortgage News Daily’s index closed at 7.43% on September 25, 2026. It is a daily index, Freddie’s is a weekly average, and the two measure different things. Don’t compare them line for line.
The Fed moved on September 16. The Federal Reserve’s FOMC statement shows a 12–0 vote to raise the target range by a quarter point, to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. CNBC called it the first increase since 2023. For 2027, eight officials pointed to another hike, six to a hold and four to cuts.
The bond market did the heavier lifting. On September 23, CNBC reported the 10-year Treasury yield rose more than 13 basis points to 5.104%, a level not seen since July 2007. Press reports put it near 5.2% by the following Friday, up from just under 4.8% early in the month. I could not pull the official close from FRED or Treasury.gov, so treat these as press-reported levels.
Why Does the 10-Year Matter More Than the Fed?
Because long-term mortgage pricing tracks long-term yields, not the overnight rate the Fed sets. The 10-year is the benchmark lenders and investors watch when they price long loans.
The Fed’s move was a quarter point. The 10-year moved far more than that in September. CNBC’s account of September 23 attributed the biggest one-day jump in nearly 18 months to strong manufacturing surveys, a hawkish Fed governor and a weak five-year auction. Long yields were already elevated before the Fed acted.
So the common line, “the Fed hike caused the jump in mortgage rates,” gets the order wrong. The market was already leaning that way. The Fed confirmed it.
Inflation is the backdrop. J.P. Morgan reports core PCE inflation above 3% in every month of 2026. That is why the Fed is hiking, and why the long end of the curve has no reason to relax.
What It Means for Home Buyers
Buyers of expensive homes have more room to negotiate than they’ve had in years. NAR says the ample supply is giving buyers better opportunities to negotiate. Realtor.com’s August report, released September 2, 2026, backs that up: 20.4% of active listings had a price cut, and the median list price of $424,500 was down 1.3% on the year. That is a list price, not a sale price. NAR’s median is a sale price. They measure different things, which is why “softer market” does not mean “falling prices.”
Here is the catch. The financing side takes back part of what negotiation gives you.
The 7.03% Freddie Mac figure describes conventional, conforming, fully amortizing purchase loans. It is not a jumbo index and not a non-QM index. Nobody I could cite measures what a large loan costs this month. Big loans price off their own investor demand, and they can move differently from the benchmark. That is a real unknown, and I’d rather say so than guess.
Demand is already reacting. The MBA’s weekly survey for the week ending September 18, 2026, showed applications down 1.5% on the week. Unadjusted purchase applications were 11% below the same week a year ago. Refinance applications were 62% lower than a year ago. The MBA’s own contract rate for 30-year conforming loans rose to 7.12% from 6.97%. That is a separate series from Freddie’s, so I won’t mix the two.
Two more things worth knowing:
- Buyer’s market is a local label. Five of the metros Redfin tracked still favor sellers. A national average hides that.
- Affordability data looks odd. NAR’s Housing Affordability Index was 104.7 in August, up from 101.2 a year earlier, even with rates above 7%. I can’t fully reconcile that, and I’d be wary of leaning on it.
My Take
Here is my read. This is opinion, not a forecast.
The buyer’s-market headlines are real, but they are a poor guide to the decision in front of a high-end buyer. Price is the variable you can negotiate. Financing is the variable that stays with you. A seller who cuts five figures off the ask gives you a one-time gain. A move of a full point in borrowing cost works on you every month for as long as you hold the loan.
If a rate moves from 7% to 6% on a large balance, the difference is a full point. That is a hypothetical, not a quote. It shows why waiting for rates to fall has a real appeal, and why it is a gamble. Futures put the chance of an October hike at about 64%, per CNBC on September 26. The Fed’s own officials are split on 2027. Nobody knows.
So I’d frame it this way. Buying now means paying today’s cost of money, with the option to refinance if rates fall. Waiting means hoping for lower rates, and hoping prices don’t rise while you wait. Prices are still up on the year in NAR’s data. Sellers are cutting, but the median has not broken.
Honestly, this is close to a toss-up for many buyers. What tips it is your own balance sheet and how long you plan to hold, not the headlines.
The people I’d expect to do best are the ones who don’t need the financing to work at any single rate. If the deal only makes sense at a lower rate, the deal is a bet on the Fed. Bets are fine. Just know which one you’re making.
What I’d Do Now
Start with structure, not price. Before you tour a single house, decide how much of the purchase you want financed and how sensitive you are to the payment moving. Then negotiate.
Compare on the same day. Quotes gathered on different days are not comparable when the 10-year moves more than a tenth of a point in a session. Line them up within the same 24 hours, or you are comparing the market’s mood, not the lenders’ offers.
Know what a lock does. A rate lock is an agreement that holds a quoted rate for a set period while your loan is processed. Floating means leaving it open and taking whatever the market does. In a week when yields set 19-year highs and the direction is unclear, floating is a real risk. If you like the deal at the quoted terms, lock it. That is mechanics, not a promise of any particular pricing.
Use the leverage on non-rate terms. With more supply, sellers in buyer’s-market metros have more reason to concede on price, repairs, closing costs and timing. Ask for those. They cost the seller less than they are worth to you.
Look at more than one kind of loan. Conforming loans are not the only path, and for larger purchases or for self-employed borrowers, other programs can fit better. HousingWire reported in June 2026 on a BofA Securities estimate that non-QM originations would grow from $108 billion in 2025 to a projected $175 billion in 2026. That is a forecast, and I treat it as background. It does say these programs are a growing part of the market. Our loan options page carries the current guidelines. Fit depends on your file, and eligibility is subject to lender guidelines.
If you own a home with equity, think about how you would use it. I wrote on using a HELOC to invest in real estate for readers weighing that route. I found no dated home-equity dataset in this window, so I can’t tell you how that market is moving this month.
Don’t confuse buying a home with chasing a yield. Bonds now pay more than they have in 19 years. That is a fair comparison for anyone with cash. But a house you live in is not a bond. If you are buying to live there, compare the cost of the home against the cost of renting it, not against a Treasury coupon. For readers who are weighing the two, the guide “When Renting Makes You a Better Real Estate Investor” covers that trade-off.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file.
For the end-to-end picture of how these loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it a good time to buy an expensive home right now?
It depends on you, not on the calendar. Leverage is better than it has been in years: NAR shows a 4.9-month supply as of its September 10, 2026 report. Borrowing costs are also at multi-year highs. If the purchase works for you at today’s financing cost, the seller concessions are a bonus. If it only works at a lower rate, you are betting on the Fed.
Does the Freddie Mac rate apply to a large loan?
No. Freddie Mac’s survey covers conventional, conforming, fully amortizing purchase loans. It was 7.03% for the week of September 24, 2026. A larger loan can price differently, and I could not find a published index that tracks it. Get a written quote for your own file.
Why did mortgage rates jump if the Fed only moved a quarter point?
Mortgage pricing follows long-term yields, and they moved more. CNBC reported the 10-year jumped more than 13 basis points on September 23, 2026, to a level not seen since 2007, on strong manufacturing data, hawkish Fed commentary and a weak auction. The Fed’s move mattered less than the market’s reaction to it.
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References
1. NAR existing-home sales, August 2026
2. Redfin buyers vs. sellers, August 2026
3. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
4. Federal Reserve FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
5. CNBC on the Fed decision, September 16, 2026
6. CNBC on the 10-year Treasury yield, September 23, 2026
7. MBA Weekly Applications Survey, week ending September 18, 2026
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: 5 Questions For Interviewing Real Estate Agents · Working with a Local Real Estate Broker · Selling (Or Buying) In Peak Real Estate Season
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
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Compliance and disclosures. Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) is a licensed mortgage broker and is not a direct lender, depository institution, financial advisor, or tax professional. Content in this article is general market analysis and educational information — not financial, legal, or tax advice for any specific situation. Lendmire does not guarantee loan approval; every transaction is subject to underwriting by the funding lender. Mortgage pricing and loan program guidelines are subject to change at any time without notice and vary by borrower characteristics, property type, and state regulations. Lendmire complies with Equal Housing Opportunity. Licensure verification: NMLS Consumer Access.