The Quick Read: As of September 28, 2026, the spring and summer rush has faded and buyers hold more leverage than they have in years. Existing-home sales slipped in August, supply climbed to its highest level in over a decade, and most builders are handing out incentives. The catch is financing. Freddie Mac’s survey has the 30-year fixed rising four straight weeks, so the leverage on price comes with a higher cost of money.
Key Takeaways
- NAR’s report on September 10 showed August existing-home sales down 2.0% from July, with supply at 4.9 months, which NAR’s chief economist called the highest in over ten years.
- Builders are leaning on incentives. NAHB’s September reading had 66% of builders using them, the highest share since December.
- Freddie Mac’s 30-year average rose four weeks in a row, ending at 7.03% for the week of September 24, 2026.
- Leverage on price is real. It is not free, because financing costs are eating into it.
- Sellers who price for the softer market are the ones getting deals done.
What Changed: The Dated Facts
Existing homes are moving more slowly and sitting longer. NAR’s existing-home sales report, released September 10, showed August sales falling 2.0% from July and 1.2% from a year earlier, to a 3.98 million annual rate. That was the first reading below 4.0 million since June 2025. Year to date, sales are still up 1.6% through eight months. So this is a slowdown, not a collapse.
Inventory is the bigger story. NAR counted 1.62 million homes for sale, up 3.2% from July and 5.9% from a year earlier. It was the first time above 1.6 million since November 2019. Supply stood at 4.9 months, against 4.6 months in July and a year ago. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, called that the highest in over ten years and said it gives buyers better room to negotiate.
The median existing-home price was $429,100, up 1.6% from a year earlier. Hold that number in your head. It matters later.
New homes tell a similar story with a twist. The Census Bureau’s new residential sales report, released September 24, put August new-home sales at a 684,000 annual rate. That was up 6.4% from July and 2.0% below a year earlier. Both changes sit within the margin of error, so I would not read a recovery into them. Months’ supply came in at 8.5, down from 9.0 in July. The median new-home price was $393,700, down 5.8% from a year ago, though Census did not flag that drop as statistically significant.
Builders are paying for their sales. Inman’s report on the NAHB index, dated September 25, said 38% of builders cut prices in September, up from 35% in August. Sixty-six percent used incentives, up from 63%. HousingWire reported on September 24 that Cotality’s Selma Hepp estimates about 80% to 90% of new-home sales now involve rate buydowns. A buydown is when a seller or builder pays money up front to reduce the buyer’s interest cost for a period of time. It is a price cut wearing a different jacket.
Demand is cooling on the resale side too. Redfin’s report for the four weeks ending September 13 (published September 17) showed pending sales down 3.5% week over week, to their lowest in nearly three years. New listings were up 1.5% from a year earlier, and the typical sold home spent 46 days on the market. A week earlier, Redfin’s report for the four weeks ending September 6 found about 21% of sellers cutting their asking price.
Listing prices are softening as well. Realtor.com’s weekly data, as reported by WRE News on September 19, put the median listing price at $419,500. That is down 1.3% from a year earlier, the 36th straight week of annual declines.
Is This Really a Buyer’s Market?
It is a better market for buyers than it has been in years. It is not a fire sale.
Realtor.com’s Best Time to Buy report, published September 10, names September 27 through October 3 as the best week of the year to buy. It projects up to 31.9% more active listings than at the start of the year. It projects listing prices 3.5% below their seasonal peak and competition 30.1% below its annual peak. That is one company’s model, but it lines up with what NAR and Redfin are reporting.
Now the honest counterpoint. “More supply” does not mean “prices are falling.” NAR’s median sale price is still up 1.6% year over year. Only listing prices and new-home prices are down. Sellers are still closing at higher numbers than a year ago, on average. What has changed is the negotiation. Buyers can ask for concessions, repairs and credits again, and sellers are more willing to hear them.
There is also a definitional trap in the numbers. NAR says supply is 4.9 months. Redfin’s own measure puts national months of supply at 4.1, up from 3.9. Those are different methods. Don’t blend them, and don’t let anyone tell you one is right and the other is wrong.
Why Are Rates Rising Right Now?
Rates are rising because inflation is stubborn and the Fed just tightened. The mortgage market is reacting to both.
On September 16, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC statement announced a 12–0 vote to raise the target range by 25 basis points, to 3¾–4%. The statement says inflation remains elevated. The prior range was 3½–3¾%. CNBC reported that updated Fed projections point to the possibility of another hike this year.
Mortgage rates do not track the Fed’s target directly. They follow long-term yields. Yahoo Finance reported on September 24 that the 10-year Treasury yield topped 5.1% on September 23, a 19-year high, and moved above 5.2% the next day. I could not confirm an official print from FRED or Treasury, so treat that as a market report, not a benchmark.
Here is the sequence from Freddie Mac’s weekly survey:
- Week of September 3: 6.71%, up 5 basis points.
- Week of September 10: 6.76%, up 5 basis points.
- Week of September 17: 6.95%, up 19 basis points.
- Week of September 24: 7.03%, up 8 basis points.
That is 37 basis points above the 6.66% reading of August 27, and 73 basis points above the 6.30% of a year ago. Freddie Mac’s 15-year averaged 6.42% for the week of September 24, up from 6.26%.
Different trackers show different levels, and that confuses people. The MBA’s weekly survey, released September 23, put the average contract rate on 30-year conforming loans at 7.12% for the week ending September 18, up from 6.97%. Mortgage News Daily’s index jumped from 7.26% to 7.45% on September 24, according to CNBC, which called it the highest since April 2024. Mortgage News Daily has said its daily index first broke 7% on September 10. Freddie’s number lags because it averages the prior Wednesday-to-Wednesday window.
So no, rates did not “just cross 7%.” Daily indexes moved past that milestone more than two weeks ago, and the MBA’s weekly survey, released September 23, has only now caught up.
One more correction to the popular story. The Fed hike did not single-handedly send rates higher. CNBC quotes Mortgage News Daily’s Matthew Graham pointing to inflation reports, Fed comments, higher oil prices and stronger economic data. The bond market has been moving on all of it. And the direction from here is unresolved: CNBC noted on September 17 that Treasury yields dipped after the Fed acted, then they climbed again.
For perspective, CNBC reports the 30-year fixed sank to as low as 5.99% at the end of February. It began rising when the war with Iran started, then moved higher again in September. Buyers who were waiting for that February number to come back are now looking at a very different market.
What It Means for Real Estate Investors
Investors face the same tradeoff as everyone else, with a different set of tools. Leverage on price is available. Cheap money is not.
Purchase demand is soft. A published survey for the week ending September 18 showed the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index down 1%, and the unadjusted index 11% below a year earlier. The Refinance Index fell 3% and sits 62% below a year ago. Fewer buyers means fewer competing offers, which is what an investor wants when negotiating a purchase. Final terms depend on lender guidelines, property type, leverage, and the borrower’s complete credit picture.
On the financing side, a secondary-market valuation firm’s September update says DSCR production is solid but investors are more selective. That is one vendor’s market commentary, not a regulator’s dataset, so weigh it accordingly. It also says DSCR and full-documentation loans are performing better than self-employed-borrower loans. I would treat that as something to watch, not a settled trend.
A DSCR loan, for anyone new to the term, is an investor loan that qualifies mainly on whether the property’s rent covers its debt payment, instead of on the borrower’s personal income. When rates rise, the payment rises, and the rent has to carry more. That is why rate direction matters so much to rental math. If you are comparing programs, the loan options page carries the current guidelines, and eligibility remains subject to lender guidelines.
Some background for context: HousingWire, citing BofA analysts in a June 30 article, put 2026 non-QM originations at $175 billion, with DSCR and investor products about half of non-QM collateral. BofA expected a modest second-half slowdown as rates rise. That was a forecast, and it is background, not a September reading.
Investors who own property with equity have another angle. The same September vendor update says first-mortgage lock-in has strengthened, and that second-lien and HELOC economics remain attractive. Lock-in means owners with older, cheaper first mortgages are reluctant to give them up. If you are in that spot, my piece on using a HELOC to invest in real estate walks through the tradeoffs.
My Take
Here is my read. The buyers who win this fall are the ones who stop waiting for the spring of 2021 to return and start pricing deals at today’s cost of money.
I think the negotiating leverage is real and underused. Redfin and Realtor.com both stress that it comes against higher financing costs. Realtor.com’s economist says rates offer little relief and buyers should offset them through price and negotiation. I agree. If you cannot change the rate, change everything around it: the price, the seller credits, the repairs, the closing costs.
It is a genuine toss-up whether waiting pays. Fed projections point to another hike, which argues against waiting. But Redfin’s Portland agent expects bidding wars to return if rates fall below 6%. That cuts the other way. Nobody knows which path we get. What I do know is that today’s inventory and today’s negotiating room are on the table now, and they are not guaranteed to last.
Is this a real slowdown or just a seasonal dip? Fair question. Yun notes that year-to-date sales are still up 1.6%. September always cools off. The difference this year is the combination: cooling demand, the most supply in over a decade, and a rising rate. That mix is why I call it a shoulder season with a catch, not a crash.
For sellers, the message is simple. Price for the market you have, not the one you remember. About one in five sellers are already cutting, and listing prices have fallen year over year for 36 weeks. Redfin’s agents advise pricing realistically from the start, and I would too. A home priced right on day one usually beats a home that chases the market down.
What I’d Do Now
None of this is advice to buy or sell any specific property. It is how I would think about the next few weeks.
If you are a buyer:
- Get your financing picture settled first. Know what you can carry at today’s market, not last spring’s.
- Shop the negotiation, not just the price tag. Ask about seller credits, repair requests and, on new construction, buydowns or other incentives.
- Watch days on market and price-cut history on any listing you like. A home that has sat and dropped is a home with a motivated seller.
- Treat the rate as a decision you can time. If you like the deal, you can lock. A rate lock is an agreement that holds a rate for a set period while your loan is processed. If rates are climbing, floating means accepting the risk that they climb further before you lock.
If you are an investor:
- Run the rent math at today’s financing costs, not at a number you hoped for. If the deal only works at a lower rate, it doesn’t work yet.
- Ask what the property needs. Some deals that fail at asking price start to pencil with a seller concession.
- If you are considering a rental near a seasonal draw, remember that ski cabins and peak-season rent can affect whether the property covers a DSCR loan, which is why timing and income seasonality matter in the coverage math.
A quick word on quotes. Rates moved 19 basis points in a single day on September 24. A quote gathered on a Tuesday and one gathered the following Monday are not comparable. If you are shopping, get your quotes on the same day, or you are comparing the market to itself.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file. Call 828-256-2183 or request a quote.
For the end-to-end picture of how these loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is September a good time to buy a home in 2026?
For negotiating room, yes. NAR reported supply at 4.9 months for August, and Realtor.com’s report names September 27 through October 3 as the best week of the year to buy. The offset is financing. Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, so the total cost still deserves a close look.
Have mortgage rates crossed 7%?
Depends on which measure you use. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey reached 7.03% for the week of September 24. Mortgage News Daily’s index, a daily measure, first broke 7% on September 10 and stood at 7.45% on September 24. The weekly figure lags because it averages the prior week.
Are home prices falling because inventory is up?
Not on average. NAR’s median existing-home price for August was $429,100, up 1.6% from a year earlier. Listing prices are down 1.3% year over year per Realtor.com data, and new-home prices are down, but those are different measures. More supply gives buyers leverage on the deal, not a guaranteed lower price.
Did the Fed hike cause mortgage rates to jump?
Partly, but not alone. The Fed raised its target range by 25 basis points on September 16. Mortgage News Daily’s Matthew Graham points to inflation reports, Fed comments, higher oil prices and stronger data as well. Mortgage rates follow long-term yields more than the Fed’s target.
What should sellers do in a shoulder-season market?
Price realistically from day one. Redfin reported about 21% of sellers cutting prices in early September, and the typical sold home took 46 days to sell in its mid-September report. Buyers now expect room to negotiate, and a well-priced home gets more attention than one that starts high and drops.
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As a mortgage broker (NMLS# 2371349), Lendmire arranges DSCR investor loans in 40 states plus Washington, D.C. — 41 markets — and, on its consumer platform, bank statement, home equity and down payment assistance financing in 16 states, through wholesale lenders. Lendmire never underwrites or funds a loan itself. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
1. NAR Existing-Home Sales report, August data
2. Census Bureau New Residential Sales
3. Inman’s report on the NAHB index
4. HousingWire
7. Federal Reserve FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
8. MBA Weekly Applications Survey, September 23, 2026
9. CNBC on the Mortgage News Daily index, September 24, 2026
10. September update
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
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Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
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Legal disclosures. Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) is a state-licensed mortgage brokerage that arranges financing through wholesale lender relationships. Lendmire is not a direct lender, depository institution, or registered financial advisor. The discussion above is general informational content about real estate financing — it is not financial, legal, or tax advice, and readers should consult licensed professionals for guidance on their individual circumstances. Loan inquiries are subject to lender underwriting; this article does not represent a commitment to lend. Loan terms, rates, and qualification standards vary by borrower, property, and state, and are subject to change at any time. Equal Housing Opportunity. NMLS Consumer Access: nmlsconsumeraccess.org.