The Quick Read: As of September 28, 2026, mortgage rates have risen every week this month, and Freddie Mac’s survey topped 7% for the first time since January 2025. A buyer with little cash saved should budget for a higher payment than the headline number suggests. The offset is leverage at the negotiating table: inventory is growing and builders are cutting prices and offering incentives. Buying with almost nothing down works best when you plan for a thin equity cushion, not when you ignore it.
Key Takeaways
- Freddie Mac’s 30-year average rose again for the week of September 24, 2026, and that survey assumes a buyer with 20% down and excellent credit. Low-down buyers should expect worse pricing than the headline.
- Buyers have more room to negotiate. NAR’s August report shows supply at 4.9 months, and builders are leaning on incentives.
- A purchase with almost no equity leaves almost no cushion. ICE’s latest report shows underwater loans climbing.
- Locking is a mechanic, not a prediction. If you like the deal and the payment fits, lock it.
- Down payment assistance programs exist for exactly this buyer. The product page carries the current guidelines. Exact terms depend on the lender’s guidelines, property type, leverage, and a full review of the borrower’s file.
What Changed This Month
Rates rose every week this month, and September 24 was the sharpest headline of the run. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, 2026, up from 6.95% the week before. A year earlier it was 6.30%, according to the same survey. The 15-year fixed also moved higher over the month, though it stayed well below the 30-year.
Look at the path. Freddie Mac’s September 10 release showed 6.76%, up from 6.71%. The September 17 release showed 6.95%, a jump of 19 basis points. Then came the 7% mark, the first reading above it since January 2025, per Fox Business.
The headline says four straight weeks. One trade outlet says five. I confirmed rises on September 10, 17 and 24 and a rise into September 10 from the prior week. I couldn’t verify the earlier week, so I’ll say what I can prove: rates rose every week this month.
A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point. The survey rose about 32 basis points from September 3 to September 24.
The Mortgage Bankers Association saw the same move. In its September 23 weekly survey, the MBA’s 30-year contract rate rose to 7.12% from 6.97% for the week ending September 18. Purchase applications fell 1% on a seasonally adjusted basis and ran 11% below a year earlier. Refinance applications were 62% lower than a year ago.
Mortgage News Daily’s daily index reads higher still. Its page showed the average lender at 7.50%, the first time since April 30, 2024. That page carried no clear date in my research, so treat it as direction, not a print. A weekly survey and a daily index measure differently. A gap of about half a point between them is expected.
Why Rates Moved
Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury yield more than the Fed’s policy rate. CNBC reported the 10-year rose more than 13 basis points to 5.104% on September 23, a level not seen since July 2007. By CNBC’s September 26 account, it reached 5.23% on Friday, September 25, after trading just below 4.8% earlier in the month.
The Fed added to the mood. In its September 16 statement, the FOMC voted 12–0 to raise the target range by a quarter point, to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. In July, nine members had voted to hold. Policy went from cutting to hiking inside a year. Markets now price about a two-in-three chance of another quarter-point hike in October, per CNBC’s September 23 report.
What It Means for Home Buyers
The rate you see in headlines is not the rate a low-down buyer should expect. Freddie Mac says its survey covers conventional, conforming, fully amortizing purchase loans for borrowers with 20% down and excellent credit, per its September 24 release. A buyer with little cash down sits outside that box. I have no survey figure for that buyer, so I won’t invent one. Budget above the headline. Every figure here varies by lender and program — guidelines, property type, leverage, and credit profile all apply.
That’s the bad news. Here’s the other side.
Buyers Have More Room to Negotiate
NAR’s August existing-home sales report, dated September 10, showed sales down 2.0% from July and 1.2% from a year earlier. The seasonally adjusted pace was 3.98 million, with 1.62 million homes for sale, per NAR’s housing snapshot. Supply stood at 4.9 months, up from 4.6 in July. NAR’s chief economist said this should give buyers more room to negotiate. The median existing-home price was $429,100, up 1.6% from a year earlier.
Realtor.com’s August housing report, released September 2, showed 20.4% of active listings carried a price cut. The median list price was $424,500, down 1.3% from a year earlier. Active listings were up 3.6% from a year ago, though the release says inventory is still about 11.1% below typical pre-pandemic levels. Part of that gain is a base effect from a delisting wave in August 2025. Inventory is better. It isn’t back to normal.
Builders Are Paying to Move Homes
New construction is where the deals are loudest. Per the Inman report of September 25 on the NAHB index, 38% of builders reported price cuts in September, up from 35%. And 66% used incentives, the highest since December. HousingWire reports builders are buying down mortgage rates and shifting to lower price points.
Census data for August, released September 24, showed new-home sales at 684,000, up 6.4% from July but 2.0% below a year earlier. The median new-home price was $393,700, down 5.8% from a year ago, with 483,000 homes for sale, or 8.5 months of supply. Be careful here. Census notes its margins of error are wide, and the monthly sales gain isn’t statistically significant. The average-price drop of 8.8% is the one change Census flagged as significant.
Incentives are the bigger lever than sticker cuts. And they may not last. HousingWire warns that builders may not have the margin to keep buying down rates if rates keep rising.
Why a Thin Cushion Matters
Here’s the part buyers skip. Put almost nothing down and you start with almost no equity. Any dip in price and you owe more than the house is worth.
That’s not a forecast. It’s arithmetic. And the data shows the edge of it. ICE’s Mortgage Monitor, in its August report dated August 10, found underwater borrowers up 44% from a year earlier to 813,000 at the end of June, with 320,000 of them also behind on payments. The same report found mortgage holder equity at $18 trillion and negative equity at a ten-month low.
Read both halves. Equity overall is strong. The underwater count is still climbing. Don’t call it a crash. Don’t ignore it either.
One caution on measures. ATTOM’s first-quarter 2026 figure, 3.2% of mortgaged homes seriously underwater, uses a share and a threshold. ICE reports a count. They are different measures, so I won’t stack them. I also found no national data showing that low-down buyers specifically drive the rise. That link is common sense, not a finding.
My Take
My read: this is a market for patient, well-prepared buyers, not for the ones who stretch. Rising rates raise the price of every dollar borrowed. Rising inventory and builder incentives give you a chance to claw some of that back. You can only use the leverage if your file is clean and your budget has room.
Thinking out loud: the tempting move is to grab a builder incentive because it feels like free money. It isn’t free. It’s a trade. A rate buydown helps the early years, and a price cut helps the whole life of the loan. Which is worth more depends on how long you’ll own the home and whether you’d refinance if rates fall. Honestly, that’s a genuine toss-up, and I’d want both versions priced side by side before choosing.
Buying with little down is legitimate. Many buyers do it. First-time buyers were 30% of August existing-home sales, up from 28% a year earlier, per HousingWire’s coverage of NAR’s report. The point isn’t to avoid it. The point is to do it with your eyes open.
The National Apartment Association argues buyers are being priced out and will have to scale back their budgets. That’s advocacy from a group with a stake in renting, and I’d read it that way. It does point at something real: the budget you set in June may not fit in September.
What I’d Do Now
Advice here stays general. I’m not telling anyone to buy or sell a specific asset.
Start with down payment assistance. If cash is the constraint, look at down payment assistance programs before you assume you must wait. What each program is reviewed on, and who it fits, varies by lender guidelines. The product page carries the current details.
Budget above the headline. Freddie Mac’s 7.03% belongs to a 20%-down borrower. If your down payment is small, plan for pricing that differs, and ask for a quote based on your actual file.
Understand the lock. A rate lock is an agreement that holds a quoted rate for a set period while your purchase moves forward. Floating means you haven’t locked and the rate can move. Quotes gathered on different days aren’t comparable, because the market moved between them. If you like the deal and the payment fits your budget, lock it. Don’t try to time an October Fed meeting.
Negotiate the incentive, then the price. Ask what the seller or builder will do on closing costs and on rate buydowns, and ask what a price cut would be worth instead. Then compare.
Keep a reserve. A thin equity cushion is easier to live with if you have cash left after closing. Leave yourself room for repairs and a bad month.
Plan the exit. Ask how long you’d have to stay to come out ahead. If the answer is longer than your life plans, the deal is weaker than it looks.
Homeowners with equity face a different set of choices. Some are drawing on it instead of refinancing. If that’s you, our piece on using a HELOC as a down payment covers how that works, though it’s written with investment purchases in mind.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file. Call 828-256-2183 or request a quote.
For the end-to-end picture of how these loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is 7.03% the rate I’ll pay if I put almost nothing down?
No. That figure is Freddie Mac’s weekly average for the week of September 24, 2026, and it covers borrowers with 20% down and excellent credit. Other measures ran higher that month: the MBA’s contract rate was 7.12% for the week ending September 18. Your pricing depends on your file and the program, so get a quote built on your details. Final terms depend on lender guidelines, property type, leverage, and the borrower’s complete credit picture.
Should I lock now or wait for rates to fall?
Lock when the deal works and the payment fits your budget. Rates rose every week this month, but no one can promise what October brings. Markets priced about a two-in-three chance of another Fed hike as of September 23, and rates could ease or rise further. Waiting is a bet, and a lock is a decision.
Do rising rates mean home prices are falling?
Not cleanly. NAR’s August median existing-home price was up 1.6% from a year earlier, while Realtor.com’s median list price was down 1.3% and Census showed the new-home median down 5.8%. These use different samples and methods. Census flagged only its average-price change as significant.
Does a builder incentive beat a price cut?
It depends on how long you’ll keep the loan. A rate buydown helps most in the early years. A lower price helps for the life of the loan and can affect your equity from day one. Ask for both options in writing and compare them side by side.
Does more inventory mean the market is back to normal?
Not quite. Realtor.com’s August report showed active listings up 3.6% from a year earlier but still about 11.1% below typical pre-pandemic levels. NAR’s 4.9 months of supply is better for buyers than a year ago, but better isn’t the same as normal.
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References
1. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
2. Freddie Mac release, September 10, 2026
3. Freddie Mac release, September 17, 2026
5. MBA Weekly Applications Survey, September 23, 2026
8. Federal Reserve FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
9. Freddie Mac release, September 24, 2026
10. NAR August existing-home sales
13. Housingwire.com — August New Home Sales Incentives
14. HousingWire’s coverage of NAR’s report
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: How Much Do I Need For a Down Payment? · Popular Loans For Buying a Home · How To Know When You Should Buy a House
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
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Disclosures. The information presented in this article is general market commentary, not financial, legal, or tax advice. Lendmire is a mortgage brokerage (NMLS# 2371349) — not a direct lender or depository institution — and loan placement is subject to lender underwriting. Nothing in this content represents a commitment to lend. Loan terms, pricing, and program availability vary based on borrower qualifications, property characteristics, and state of subject property, and are subject to change at any time. Lendmire complies with Equal Housing Opportunity requirements. Consumer access: nmlsconsumeraccess.org.