The Quick Read: A listing now competes with more inventory, more price cuts and builders handing out incentives. Rates have also climbed for six straight weeks, so buyers count every dollar of carry. As of September 28, 2026, the winning listing is priced to the current market, backed by verified facts, and ready for buyers who run the numbers twice.
One correction to the working angle. When I started this column, the rate streak read as four weeks. Freddie Mac’s latest survey, released October 1, extends it to six. The numbers below run through that release.
Key Takeaways
- NAR’s report on September 10 put August existing-home sales at a 3.98 million annual pace, with supply at 4.9 months.
- Freddie Mac’s survey for the week of October 1 put the 30-year fixed at 7.28%, up 25 basis points in a week.
- Builders are cutting prices and using incentives, which gives your listing a rival you may not see coming.
- Sellers are cutting asking prices, not delisting. Closed prices are still up slightly on the year.
- If you hold equity and are weighing a sale, a refinance or a cash-out, the rate path matters as much as the list price.
What changed
Rates: The 30-year fixed averaged 7.28% for the week of October 1, according to Freddie Mac’s survey release. The prior week was 7.03%. A year earlier it was 6.34%. That is 94 basis points in twelve months.
FRED’s copy of the series shows the path. The week of September 3 averaged 6.71%. Then came gains of 5, 19, 8 and 25 basis points. The Real Deal, citing AP, calls the latest print the sixth consecutive weekly increase. Real Estate News reports it as the highest weekly average since November 2023 and the biggest one-week jump since October 2022.
A weekly average is not anybody’s quote. Freddie Mac’s survey and Mortgage News Daily’s daily index measure differently. The index closed at 7.60% on September 30. Don’t treat the two as one number.
The Fed: The FOMC voted 12–0 on September 16 to raise the target range by 25 basis points, to 3¾–4%. The Federal Reserve’s implementation note calls it the first hike since 2023. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.26% on September 29.
Buyer demand: A published survey for the week ending September 25 showed total applications down 6.0%. Its weekly release described the contract rate as higher on the week, with the share of adjustable-rate applications at 10.3%, the highest since October 2025. Year over year, purchase applications are down 14% and refinance is down 56%. These specifics are subject to lender guidelines and a full review of property, leverage, and credit.
Resale supply: NAR’s report on September 10 showed August existing-home sales at a 3.98 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. That is down 2.0% on the month. Inventory was 1.62 million units, up 5.9% on the year. Supply reached 4.9 months, up from 4.6 in July. The median price was $429,100, up 1.6% on the year.
Price cuts: Realtor.com’s September report, covered by Inman, found 20.8% of active listings with a price cut. Inman also cites Redfin at 21.1% of sellers cutting asking prices in September. Realtor.com’s median list price was $419,250, down 1.4% on the year.
New construction: The NAHB builder index fell three points to 32 in September. Per NAHB, 38% of builders cut prices and 66% used incentives. The average cut held at 6%. Census figures via Inman show August new-home sales at 684,000 and new-home supply at 8.5 months. Those are subject to revision.
Is this a buyer’s market?
Not everywhere, and not on one number. The 4.9 months of supply is NAR’s national figure. It is the highest in over ten years. But Realtor.com says inventory remains below pre-pandemic norms, so the two sources measure different things. A national average hides your street.
Two more cautions. August closings mostly reflect contracts signed before September’s rate surge. The more current signal is Realtor.com’s count of homes under contract, down 4.1% on the year. And price cuts are not a collapse. Closed prices are still up 1.6% on the year. Sellers are cutting asking prices, not pulling listings.
Closed versus listed prices also tell different stories. NAR’s median sale price is up. Realtor.com’s median list price is down. When someone says “prices are falling,” ask which one they mean.
What it means for homeowners with equity
Your equity is a number on paper until you sell, borrow against it or refinance. The softer market changes each of those paths.
If you sell. Your listing now competes with a bigger pile of resale homes. It also competes with new construction, where builders are offering buydowns and design upgrades. Realtor.com’s median time on market was 61 days, per a press-release repost. A buyer touring three listings and a model home is comparing carry costs, not just kitchens.
If you refinance. Refinance applications are down 56% from a year ago. That tells you most owners with low-rate loans are staying put. If you hold a loan from the cheaper years, think hard before touching it. Terms vary by lender guidelines, property type, leverage, credit profile, and full file review.
If you want cash without selling. A second lien or a home-equity line leaves the first mortgage alone. A trade headline from HELN News on September 25 says delinquency on home-equity products backing bonds rose year over year, while non-QM improved. It is a headline summary, so I treat it as a mood, not a measurement. Our loan options page lays out the programs we broker for equity borrowers, and each is subject to lender guidelines. I also wrote about using a HELOC to invest in real estate for owners who want to put equity to work.
My take
Here is my read: the listing is the product, and the price is the headline. In a softer market, buyers have leverage. Realtor.com’s chief economist, Danielle Hale, put it this way on September 30, per MortgagePoint: higher mortgage rates limit how much of that opportunity buyers can use. So buyers have options and a smaller budget at once. That is why they shop hard.
I think sellers make three mistakes in a market like this.
1. They price off last spring. A listing that anchors to a spring sale is quoting a market that no longer exists. 2. They ignore the builder next door. A new home with a buydown can undercut a resale on monthly carry even at a higher sticker price. 3. They treat the first two weeks as a warm-up. The first listing price is your best shot at attention. Cuts later work, but they carry a stale-listing tag.
Is waiting a better play? It can be, depending on your situation. If you don’t have to sell, you can wait for a calmer rate market. But the Fed’s own projections point to another hike, according to a large national bank’s summary of those projections. Nobody knows where rates settle. Waiting is a bet, not a plan.
What should a listing lead with?
Verified facts. Buyers who worry about monthly carry want answers up front, and a listing that supplies them earns trust.
Lead with what a buyer can check:
- Recent big-ticket work, such as a roof, HVAC, water heater or windows, with dates and paperwork.
- Utility history, so buyers can see the true cost of running the house.
- A recent inspection or permit record, where one exists.
- Anything that lowers carry cost: an assumable-loan opportunity if your loan allows it, or seller-paid concessions your agent can structure.
- Clean, honest photos and a floor plan.
Why does this work? A buyer at today’s rates is underwriting your house in their head. Every unknown becomes a cost in the buyer’s math. Verified facts remove unknowns. Not glamorous. Effective.
Concessions deserve a plain look. A price cut and a concession are different tools. A cut lowers the price on every later offer. A concession, such as help with closing costs or a rate buydown, targets the buyer’s monthly cost without resetting the comps. I’d talk through both with your agent. Which one fits depends on your local market, not a national chart.
What I’d do now
None of this is advice to buy or sell a specific asset. It is how I would sequence the decisions if I held equity today.
Read your local market, not the national one. Ask your agent for three numbers from your local listing service: active inventory, pending sales and median days on market. Compare each with last year. That tells you whether your street looks like NAR’s average.
Price for the buyer who exists. Look at recent closed sales and current competing listings, not asking prices from months ago. The Realtor.com and Redfin data say about one in five listings carries a cut. If your neighbors are cutting, you are being compared to the cut price.
Check the new-construction map. Builders cut prices and offered incentives across the country this month. Ask your agent whether a builder near you is running a promotion. If so, your listing needs a plan against it.
Know the mechanics if you’re also buying. If you sell and buy in the same stretch, you will meet a rate lock. A lock holds a quoted rate for a set period, so a later move in the market doesn’t change your quote. Quotes gathered on different days aren’t comparable, because rates moved in between. If a quote works for you and your file is ready, lock it. Floating means leaving the quote unlocked and betting rates fall. This month, that bet has lost six weeks running.
Don’t borrow against equity out of panic. A second lien or a cash-out refinance is a tool, not a rescue. Renting, in some situations, makes you a better investor, and so can staying put in a low-rate loan. Compare the full cost of each path before you move.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file.
Where do rates go from here?
I don’t know, and neither does anyone else. The Fed’s September statement is clear about the hike. The projections suggest another. Sixteen of eighteen participants see one more. But the mortgage market prices off the 10-year Treasury yield, which CNBC reported this week at its highest since 2007. Mortgage rates track that yield more than they track the Fed’s target.
So here is how I would think about it. A seller who lists today is selling into a market where buyers see a rate far above last year’s. Seven months ago, buyers were celebrating rates that had dipped to a recent low. That gap shapes every offer. If a buyer’s rate moves from 6.34% to 7.28%, the difference is nearly a full point. Buyers feel that on every showing.
For the end-to-end picture of how these loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is now a bad time to list my house?
Not automatically. Sales are still happening, and the median closed price is up 1.6% on the year, per NAR’s September 10 report. But buyers have more choices and a tighter budget. A well-priced, well-documented listing still draws interest. An overpriced one sits.
Should I cut my price or offer a concession?
It depends on the buyer pool. A price cut resets your comparison point for every buyer. A concession, such as help with closing costs, aims at the buyer’s monthly cost. Many sellers try a concession first when the price is already near recent sales. Talk to your listing agent about which fits your local market.
Do 4.9 months of supply mean it’s a buyer’s market everywhere?
No. That is NAR’s national existing-home figure as of the September 10 report. Local supply varies widely. Realtor.com measures inventory differently and still finds it below pre-pandemic norms. Pull the numbers for your own area before you decide how to price.
Will rates fall if I wait to sell?
Nobody can say. Freddie Mac’s survey rose for six weeks through October 1, and the Fed’s own projections point to another hike. If you don’t need to sell now, waiting is possible. But it is a bet on a rate path no one controls.
Can I use my equity without selling?
Often, yes, through a home-equity line, a second lien or a cash-out refinance, subject to lender guidelines. Each has different costs and risks. Our loan options page is the place to see which programs we broker.
About Lendmire
Lendmire, NMLS# 2371349, is a mortgage broker with two platforms: DSCR investor lending across 41 markets, including Washington, D.C., and consumer mortgage programs in 16 states, all arranged through wholesale lending partners. This column is written by Lendmire’s founder and reflects the market as of its publication date; program terms and availability are set by the lender on each file. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
1. The Real Deal, mortgage rates and the sixth weekly increase
2. Real Estate News, housing activity and mortgage rates
3. Federal Reserve, September 16, 2026 implementation note
4. MBA weekly applications survey, September 30, 2026
5. NAR existing-home sales report, August
6. Inman, September price cuts
8. Inman, August new-home sales
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: Buying A Home In A Seller’s Market Gone Soft, September 2026 · When To Buy A House As Rates Climb And Inventory Builds, September 2026? · Peak Real Estate Season Is Over, And September 2026 Favors Buyers
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
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Required disclosures. Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) operates as a licensed mortgage broker, not a direct lender or depository. The discussion in this article is general in nature and should not be relied upon as financial, legal, or tax advice — every investment scenario is unique and should be reviewed by a qualified professional. Any loan inquiry is subject to lender underwriting, and this article is not a commitment to lend or a guarantee of approval. Mortgage rates, loan terms, and program guidelines vary by borrower, property, and state, and may change without notice. Equal Housing Opportunity. Verify licensure at NMLS Consumer Access.