The Quick Read: As of September 28, 2026, the 10-year Treasury yield sits at its highest level since 2007, and mortgage rates have risen four weeks in a row. An opportunity zone tax benefit does not lower the cost of debt or change how a rental covers its payment. Softer sales and more inventory give buyers some room to negotiate. Price the deal on debt cost and rent coverage first, and treat the tax break as a bonus.
Key Takeaways
- Freddie Mac’s survey has climbed every week since early September, and the 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007 in the week of September 21.
- The opportunity zone benefit is a tax outcome that depends on how long you hold. It does not change the loan or the rent.
- Existing-home sales slowed in August while inventory rose, and builders are leaning harder on incentives.
- The room to negotiate is real but uneven, and the sources disagree on how much of it there is.
- Conventional benchmark rates are not investor loan rates. Get quotes for your own deal, on the same day.
What changed
Mortgage rates rose for a fourth straight week. Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, 2026, up from 6.95% the week before. A year earlier it averaged 6.30%. Four weeks ago, the survey stood at 6.66%, so the climb is 37 basis points in a month.
Freddie’s survey has a narrow scope. It covers conventional, conforming, fully amortizing purchase loans for borrowers putting 20% down with excellent credit, per Freddie Mac’s September 17 release. It is not an investor rate. It is a thermometer, not a price tag. Terms vary by lender guidelines, property type, leverage, credit profile, and full file review.
Other gauges run higher. The MBA’s weekly survey, released September 23 for the week ending September 18, put its 30-year contract rate at 7.12%, the highest since May 2024. Applications fell 1.5%. The refinance index fell 3% and sat 62% below a year earlier. The adjustable-rate share of applications rose to 9.8%.
The driver is the long end of the bond market. CNN reported the 10-year Treasury closed at 5.11% on September 23, up 15 basis points on the day and the highest since 2007. CNBC reported 5.23% on Friday, September 25, and noted that earlier in the month the yield was just below 4.8%. That is a big move in a short window.
The Fed added to the mood. In its statement of September 16, the Committee voted 12–0 to raise the target range by a quarter point, to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, and said inflation remains elevated. CNBC called it the first increase since 2023 and said the projections leave room for another this year.
One caution on the Fed. It controls short rates. Mortgage rates follow long yields. The MBA’s chart of the week, dated September 25, says the 10-year was around 4% in early 2026, with mortgage rates a little above 6%. The mortgage rate has tracked the 10-year up.
What does the opportunity zone break actually change?
It changes your tax bill, not your loan. The opportunity zone program lets investors defer or reduce tax on capital gains when they put that money into designated neighborhoods. Whatever the tax outcome, the lender still looks at debt cost, the property and the rent.
Here is the timing point that trips people up. The program was made permanent under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, per Forvis Mazars’ July 9 summary. Treasury and the IRS issued Rev. Proc. 2026-14 on April 6, 2026. The nomination window opened July 1 for 90 days. New designations run from January 1, 2027 through 2036. So the new round is not in effect yet. A purchase this fall runs under the existing rules.
Those existing rules are changing at the edges. HUD’s opportunity zone page says that after December 31, 2026, the original deferral and step-up benefits cease for new investments. The 10-year exclusion may still apply. That exclusion needs a long hold.
Read that again. The benefit that survives pays off at the end of a long hold. The debt cost hits you every month until then. I won’t walk through anyone’s tax situation here, and I’m not giving tax advice. Talk to your tax advisor about your own gains. My point is about sequence: the loan has to work first, or there is no long hold to reward.
What it means for real estate investors
Debt cost now decides more deals than tax treatment does. When the benchmark is near 7% and the 10-year is above 5%, the rent has to cover the debt with real room. A revitalizing neighborhood often means rents that are still catching up to prices. That is the gap to stress-test.
Investor lending is growing as a slice of the market. HousingWire, citing Optimal Blue, reported in mid-September that investor and DSCR loans were 22% of non-QM production in August 2022, 28% in August 2025 and 35% in August 2026. That tells me more borrowers are being underwritten on the property’s income than on their own pay stubs. A DSCR loan, short for debt service coverage ratio, compares a rental’s income to its debt payment. You can read how these DSCR loan programs qualify a file, and the page carries the current guidelines. Approval and terms remain subject to lender guidelines.
Two practical points follow.
Rent coverage is the test, in any zone. A tract designation says nothing about whether rent covers debt. Run it as if the tax break did not exist. If the deal only works with the break, it does not work yet.
Rate quotes go stale. A quote gathered on September 17 and one gathered on September 25 are not comparable. The market moved in between. When you compare, compare on the same day, and remember that a lock is a mechanical agreement that fixes terms for a set period. If you like a deal at today’s terms, lock it.
If you are new to short-term rentals in this kind of neighborhood, the terms can get stricter still. I covered that in “Why First Time Airbnb Buyers Face Stricter DSCR Terms”.
Is there room to negotiate?
Some, and it depends on the segment. Existing-home sales fell 2.0% in August to a 3.98 million annual pace, per NAR’s report of September 10. Sales were down 1.2% from a year earlier. Inventory rose to 1.62 million homes and months of supply rose to 4.9. The median price still rose 1.6% to $429,100. Prices are not falling nationally. They are just rising more slowly.
Pending sales tell a mixed story. NAR showed them up 0.3% in August. The MBA, meanwhile, says purchase applications have dropped off after rates rose. The MBA’s week ending September 11 survey said higher rates caused many buyers to pause purchase decisions.
Builders are giving more. According to Inman’s report on the new-home data, the September builder survey showed 38% of builders cutting prices, up from 35%, and 66% using sales incentives, up from 63% and the highest since December. The Census Bureau put August new-home sales at a 684,000 annual rate, with a median price of $393,700, down 5.8% from a year earlier, and 483,000 homes for sale. That is an 8.5-month supply. Inman notes the monthly sales and median-price changes sit within the margin of error. Don’t read that as discounting everywhere.
On price cuts, the sources split. Realtor.com’s August report, released September 2, showed 20.4% of listings with a price cut, level with last year. Delistings were down 12.6% year over year, which says sellers are still patient. Zillow’s August report put the price-cut share at 26.3%, but it measures differently. I would not average the two. I would read both as saying the same thing: there is room in some listings and not in others.
One more caution. Analysts say the year-over-year jump in inventory is flattered by last August’s wave of delistings. More listings is true. More listings than it looks is not.
My take
The yield spike is a debt-cost story, and the opportunity zone label is a tax story. Mixing them is the mistake I expect to see this fall. A buyer who reads “permanent program” and “motivated sellers” and concludes the deal is cheaper than it looks has skipped the step where the lender looks at the rent.
I think the opportunity zone angle is worth having. It may reward a patient holder. But patience costs money every month, and rates at these levels make a thin deal thinner. My read: the investors who do well from here buy on rent coverage, use the extra inventory and builder incentives to negotiate on price, and count the tax benefit only after the loan holds up without it.
There is a genuine toss-up here on timing. Waiting could bring better negotiating room if sales keep sliding. But the sources disagree on how patient sellers are, and the Fed path is open. The CNBC piece of September 26 lists competing explanations for the yield jump. One is bond issuance. Others are oil, the war with Iran and Fed expectations. Markets price at least one more hike, and the Fed’s own projections allow one. Nobody knows which way the next month goes. I won’t pretend to.
What I’d do now
Nothing here is advice to buy or sell any property. These are habits I would keep.
1. Underwrite without the tax break. Run the deal on debt cost and rent only. Add the tax benefit last, and only as a bonus.
2. Know which benchmark you are reading. Freddie Mac’s survey, the MBA’s contract rate and Mortgage News Daily’s index differ by up to about 40 basis points because they measure different things. None of them is an investor quote.
3. Compare quotes on one day. With the 10-year moving 15 basis points in a single session, a week-old quote is history.
4. Use the softer market for price, not hope. Ask for concessions where inventory is building. Builder incentives are a place to start, and so are sellers who have sat on the market.
5. Mind the calendar. The original deferral benefits end for new investments after December 31, 2026, and the new round starts in 2027. Sort out with your tax advisor which rules your purchase falls under.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file. You can reach the team at 828-256-2183 or request a quote.
For the end-to-end picture of how these loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the opportunity zone tax break lower my mortgage cost?
No. The tax benefit affects what you owe on capital gains, depending on your hold. It has no effect on the loan’s cost or on how the rent covers the debt. A lender looks at the property and the borrower, not the tract designation, subject to lender guidelines.
Is the new opportunity zone program already in effect?
No, the new program is not yet in effect. New designations run from January 1, 2027, through 2036. Investments made in 2026 fall under the existing rules. HUD says the original deferral and step-up benefits cease for new investments after December 31, 2026.
How high are Treasury yields right now?
CNBC reported the 10-year at 5.23% on September 25, 2026, the highest since 2007. Earlier in September it was just below 4.8%. I have not pulled the primary FRED series, so I attribute the figure to the press report.
Can I use the Freddie Mac rate to plan an investment property loan?
Use it as a direction signal only. Freddie Mac’s survey covers conventional purchase loans for borrowers putting 20% down with excellent credit. Investor and non-QM pricing is a separate market, so get a quote for your own deal. Exact terms depend on the lender’s guidelines, property type, leverage, and a full review of the borrower’s file.
About Lendmire
Lendmire — NMLS# 2371349 — is a mortgage brokerage whose founder writes this column. DSCR investor programs reach 41 markets, including Washington, D.C.; consumer programs such as bank statement, HELOC and down payment assistance loans are arranged in 16 states; every loan is placed with, and underwritten by, a wholesale lender under that lender’s guidelines. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
1. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
2. Freddie Mac release, week of September 17, 2026
3. MBA weekly applications survey, released September 23, 2026
4. CNN on the 10-year Treasury yield, September 23, 2026
5. CNBC on how the 10-year yield got here, September 26, 2026
6. Federal Reserve FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
7. CNBC on the Fed decision, September 16, 2026
8. MBA chart of the week, September 25, 2026
9. Forvis Mazars on opportunity zones under OB3, July 9, 2026
11. Inman on August new-home sales, September 25, 2026
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: Prepare Financially For Buying A Home After September’s Rate Jump · Closing-ready Home Buyers Face A September Rate Climb After The Fed Hike · Home Buying Power In September 2026: Rates Are Outrunning Prices
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
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Required disclosures. Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) operates as a licensed mortgage broker, not a direct lender or depository. The discussion in this article is general in nature and should not be relied upon as financial, legal, or tax advice — every investment scenario is unique and should be reviewed by a qualified professional. Any loan inquiry is subject to lender underwriting, and this article is not a commitment to lend or a guarantee of approval. Mortgage rates, loan terms, and program guidelines vary by borrower, property, and state, and may change without notice. Equal Housing Opportunity. Verify licensure at NMLS Consumer Access.