The Quick Read: as of September 28, 2026, sellers are working in a market that no longer does the work for them. NAR’s August report, released September 10, showed supply at 4.9 months, the highest in over ten years by NAR’s own economist’s description. Mortgage rates climbed through the month. Builders are cutting prices and offering incentives at the highest share since December. Price your home honestly, present it well, and get the listing data right.
Key Takeaways
- Existing-home sales slipped 2.0% in August to a 3.98 million annual pace, and inventory passed 1.6 million for the first time since November 2019 (NAR, September 10).
- Freddie Mac’s weekly survey showed the 30-year fixed rising four weeks running in September. Rate direction is now working against sellers.
- Builders are the competing seller. Per NAHB’s September index, 38% cut prices and 66% used incentives.
- Prices are still up year over year in closed sales. The pressure is showing up as concessions and price cuts, not a crash.
- If you own equity and don’t have to move, borrowing against it is a different path from selling. It deserves a look at the loan options before you decide.
What Changed This Month
The short answer: supply rose, sales fell, and rates moved the wrong way for sellers in the same four weeks.
Start with inventory. NAR’s report on August existing-home sales, dated September 10, put sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million. That was down 2.0% from July and down 1.2% from a year earlier. Inventory reached 1.62 million units, up 5.9% from August 2025. Months of supply rose to 4.9 from 4.6 in July. NAR’s chief economist said the ample supply gives buyers better opportunities to negotiate.
Sales also fell below a 4 million pace for the first time since June 2025, per HousingWire’s recap on the same day.
Now the rate side. Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, up from 6.95% the week before. A year earlier it was 6.30%. The month ran this way:
| Freddie Mac survey week | 30-year fixed | Weekly move |
|---|---|---|
| September 3 | 6.71% | +5 bp |
| September 10 | 6.76% | +5 bp |
| September 17 | 6.95% | +19 bp |
| September 24 | 7.03% | +8 bp |
That is roughly 37 basis points in four weeks, measured from the 6.66% reading before September 3.
Two caveats. Freddie’s survey covers conventional, conforming, fully amortizing purchase loans for borrowers with 20% down and excellent credit, per its September 3 release. It is not a self-employed or investor benchmark. And sources differ on level. The MBA’s weekly survey for the week ending September 18 put its 30-year contract rate at 7.12%, up from 6.97%. Mortgage News Daily’s index read 7.43% on September 25, down 2 basis points on the day. They measure different things on different days. Don’t compare one against another. Terms vary by lender guidelines, property type, leverage, credit profile, and full file review.
Why the jump? On September 16, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC statement said the committee voted 12–0 to raise the target range by a quarter point, to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. The statement said inflation remains elevated. CNBC reported it was the first hike in more than three years, with projections pointing to the possibility of another this year.
One correction to a common misreading. The Fed sets a short-term rate. Mortgage rates track longer-term yields. The two move together often, not one for one. Secondary sources describe the 10-year Treasury yield rising sharply and sitting above 5%. I’d want the official figure from FRED before quoting a number, so I’ll give you the direction only.
What Are Builders Doing to Your Listing’s Competition?
Builders are discounting and buying down rates, which sets the benchmark your resale listing gets measured against.
The NAHB’s September release said 38% of builders cut prices, up from 35% in August, with the average cut holding at 6%. Sixty-six percent used sales incentives, up from 63% and the highest share since December. The index fell three points to 32. Scotsman Guide adds that large builders lean heavily on builder-paid rate buydowns.
One note on wording. You will see “highest in years” in some coverage. The source says highest since December, when the share was 67%. I’ll stay with the source.
Census data, released around September 23, showed August new-home sales at 684,000 annualized, 6.4% above July. New-home supply stood at 8.5 months. The margin of error on that monthly jump is wide, about 19.5%, so don’t read much into it.
Here’s the catch for you. A builder can buy down a buyer’s rate. You probably can’t. So your listing has to win on the things you control: price, condition, presentation and clean information.
Are Prices Falling?
Not in closed sales. Asking prices are softer, and both facts are true at once.
NAR put the August median existing-home price at $429,100, up 1.6% from a year earlier, the 38th straight annual gain. That is below July’s $434,100, per NAR’s July report from August 11. A monthly dip inside a yearly gain.
Realtor.com’s August report, released September 2, tells the asking-price side. The median list price was $424,500, down 1.3% from a year earlier. About 20.4% of active listings had a price reduction, level with last year. Delistings ran 12.6% below last year’s pace.
Read that last number carefully. Sellers are not pulling homes off the market. They are staying listed and cutting. That is how leverage moves toward buyers without a headline crash.
Closed sales and asking prices measure different things. Closed sales reflect deals struck weeks or months ago. Asking prices show where sellers are starting now. My read: the gap between the two is where overpriced listings go to sit.
What It Means for Homeowners With Equity
Higher rates make trading out of a low-rate mortgage harder, so many owners with equity will stay put and look at other uses of that equity.
Refinance demand tells the story. For the week ending September 18, the MBA reported the Refinance Index fell 3% and ran 62% below a year earlier. Three weeks before, for the week ending August 28, it was 19% below. The unadjusted Purchase Index was 11% lower than a year ago. Overall applications fell 1.5%, after a 4.1% drop the week before.
So rate-driven refinancing is off the table for most owners. The equity, though, is still there. HousingWire reported on September 14, citing a white paper, that homeowner equity reached $34.9 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, with about $11 trillion tappable. It also reported nonbank home-equity line originations up about 140% from 2023 to 2025. That is industry-side data, so treat the enthusiasm with some salt.
I can’t tell you from these sources how self-employed or investor borrowers are behaving. The data simply isn’t in the brief. What I can say is what the structure offers. If you would rather keep a low-rate first mortgage and tap equity another way, there are products built for that, including options for borrowers whose income doesn’t fit a standard W-2 file. Which one fits depends on your file and lender guidelines. The loan options page carries the current guidelines, and I won’t restate figures here.
My Take
Sellers who price for September 2026 will sell. Sellers who price for 2021 will watch the listing age.
Here is my opinion, and it’s an opinion. The data in the brief doesn’t measure photography or listing accuracy, so what follows is judgment, not a cited finding.
When supply is at a decade-plus high and buyers have room to negotiate, a listing gets compared against every other listing in seconds. Weak photos lose the click. Wrong square footage, a missing detail or a stale description costs you trust, and a buyer with options simply moves on. In a market where homes sat a median of 60 days per the Realtor.com data, you can’t afford to waste the first two weeks.
Pricing matters most. NAR says buyers can negotiate. Builders are cutting 6% on average. If your price assumes a bidding war, you are competing against a builder with a rate buydown. Not ideal.
I also think the “it’s a crash” and “it’s still a seller’s market” camps are both wrong. The middle is boring and accurate: prices are roughly flat to slightly up in closed sales, concessions are rising, and time on market is stretching. Honestly, the hardest part for sellers is psychological. The last few years trained everyone to expect multiple offers.
One genuine toss-up: whether the softness is buyer-driven or rate-driven. NAR frames it as rates and sales moving in opposite directions. Realtor.com’s economists, per Inman on September 1, describe a seasonal cool-down plus selective buyers. The two are hard to separate yet. If rates keep rising, I lean toward rates as the bigger driver. I could be wrong.
What I’d Do Now
Price to the market you have, present the home cleanly, and decide early whether selling is even your best use of equity.
Here is the practical list.
- Price from recent closed sales, not from last year’s headlines. Look at homes that sold, not just homes that listed. Then check how many nearby listings carry a price cut. About one in five do nationally, per Realtor.com’s August report.
- Fix your listing data before you publish. Square footage, bedroom count, lot size, year built, upgrades. Get them right the first time. A correction later looks like a problem.
- Treat photos as your first showing. Buyers with choices scroll fast. Clean, bright, uncluttered images give them a reason to stop.
- Decide your concession plan before the first offer. Builders are using buydowns and price cuts. You may end up weighing a price cut against helping with a buyer’s closing costs. Know your floor in advance.
- If you like a buyer’s offer, don’t assume it will get better. Delistings are down, so competing listings stay on the market with you.
- If you’re buying another home at the same time, talk to a broker about rate mechanics early. A rate lock holds a quoted rate for a set period. Quotes gathered on different days are not comparable, because the market moved in between. With the 30-year average up 37 basis points in four weeks, that matters. If you like it, lock it.
- Ask whether you need to sell at all. If your goal is cash for a renovation, a business need or a purchase, compare selling against borrowing on the equity.
The next NAR existing-home sales release is Tuesday, October 13, 2026. Watch whether supply holds near these levels.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file.
For the end-to-end picture of how DSCR loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Should I cut my price or offer concessions?
Start with price, because it’s the first filter buyers apply. Realtor.com reported on September 2 that about 20.4% of active listings carried a price reduction. A reduction early in the listing usually looks stronger than one after weeks of silence. Concessions such as closing-cost help can work alongside it. Builders lean on buydowns, so expect buyers to ask.
Do higher mortgage rates hurt sellers too?
Yes. Higher rates shrink the pool of buyers who can afford your price. Freddie Mac’s survey showed the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, versus 6.30% a year earlier. Owners with low-rate mortgages also think twice before trading up. That combination slows demand and keeps supply building.
Does the Fed hike set my mortgage rate?
Not directly. The Fed’s September 16 decision raised the short-term target range by a quarter point. Mortgage rates follow longer-term yields, which also rose. They often move together, but not one for one. Rate figures from Freddie Mac, the MBA and Mortgage News Daily differ because each measures something different.
If I have equity but don’t want to sell, what are my choices?
You can keep your current mortgage and borrow against the equity, or restructure the loan. The right path depends on your income documentation, your property and lender guidelines. Refinancing is down sharply, with the MBA showing the Refinance Index 62% below a year ago for the week ending September 18. Start with the loan options page for current guidelines.
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References
1. NAR August existing-home sales
3. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
4. Federal Reserve FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
6. NAHB builder sentiment release, September 2026
8. NAR July existing-home sales
9. HousingWire, nonbank HELOC share
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: Preparing Your Home For Sale As September 2026 Buyers Gain Leverage · The Value Of Hardscaping In A September 2026 Market With More Listings · Getting Your House Ready To Sell In A September 2026 Buyer-leaning Market
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
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Compliance and disclosures. Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) is a licensed mortgage broker and is not a direct lender, depository institution, financial advisor, or tax professional. Content in this article is general market analysis and educational information — not financial, legal, or tax advice for any specific situation. Lendmire does not guarantee loan approval; every transaction is subject to underwriting by the funding lender. Mortgage pricing and loan program guidelines are subject to change at any time without notice and vary by borrower characteristics, property type, and state regulations. Lendmire complies with Equal Housing Opportunity. Licensure verification: NMLS Consumer Access.