The Quick Read: as of September 28, 2026, the balance has tilted toward buyers. Existing-home sales slipped in August while listings and months of supply climbed. Builders are cutting prices and handing out incentives. Mortgage rates have risen four weeks running. If you own a home with equity and plan to sell, condition and pricing discipline now matter more than they did a few months ago.
Key Takeaways
- Existing-home sales fell 2.0% in August, and inventory topped 1.6 million units for the first time since November 2019 (NAR, September 10, 2026).
- Freddie Mac’s 30-year average has risen four weeks in a row, from 6.66% to 7.03%. That is a dent in buyer budgets.
- Builders are competing with you. Most are using incentives, and more than a third cut prices in September.
- Prices are still up year over year nationally. Asking prices, though, have been drifting lower for 36 straight weeks.
- Overpricing costs more than it did in the spring. Prepare the house, price it to the market, and don’t count on a rebound in demand.
What Changed
Sales slowed and supply grew. NAR’s August existing-home sales report, released September 10, 2026, showed sales down 2.0% from July and 1.2% from a year earlier, at a 3.98 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. That was the first reading below 4.0 million since June 2025.
Supply is the bigger story. Inventory reached 1.62 million units, up 3.2% from July and up 5.9% from August 2025. It was the first time since November 2019 that inventory exceeded 1.6 million. Months of supply (how long current inventory would last at the current sales pace) rose to 4.9, from 4.6 in July. NAR’s chief economist said the ample supply is giving homebuyers better opportunities to negotiate.
The median existing-home price was $429,100, up 1.6% from August 2025. That was the 38th straight month of year-over-year gains. So this is not a price collapse. It is a market where buyers have choices.
Now the rate side. Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, 2026, up from 6.95% the week before. A year earlier it averaged 6.30%. The path since late August tells the story: 6.66%, then 6.71% on September 3, 6.76% on September 10, 6.95% on September 17 and 7.03% on September 24. That is 37 basis points in four weeks. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.
One caution on that number. Freddie describes its survey as focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing purchase loans for borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit. It is a benchmark. It is not what every buyer is offered. These specifics are subject to lender guidelines and a full review of property, leverage, and credit.
Other gauges run higher. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey, released September 23, 2026, put its 30-year contract rate at 7.12%, up from 6.97%. Mortgage News Daily’s index, which is a daily reading, showed 7.43% on September 25, 2026. Different borrower profiles and different timing explain the gaps. The direction is the same.
The Federal Reserve raised its target range by a quarter point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent on September 16, 2026, in a 12–0 vote. The statement said inflation remains elevated. I would not blame the Fed alone for mortgage rates. Long-term yields were already climbing before that meeting.
The buyer’s demand signal is soft. A published survey for the week ending September 18 showed the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index down 1%. The unadjusted index was 11% lower than a year earlier. Refinance applications were 62% lower than a year ago. Terms vary by lender guidelines, property type, leverage, credit profile, and full file review.
Who Are You Competing With Now?
You are competing with other sellers, and with builders. That second group is the one many owners overlook.
A published report for August, released September 24, 2026, put the new-home median price at $393,700. That is 5.8% below the August 2025 figure of $417,900. Census notes wide margins of error, and says neither monthly nor yearly change is statistically significant. Part of any drop also reflects the mix of homes sold. So don’t read it as “new homes are cheap.”
New-home supply stood at 8.5 months, with 483,000 homes for sale. According to the Census Bureau’s August report, the pace of new-home sales rose from July and slipped slightly from a year earlier.
Builder behavior matters more than the median. Per the NAHB survey reported by Inman on September 25, 2026, 38% of builders reported price cuts in September, up from 35% in August. Sixty-six percent used sales incentives, the highest share since December. The average price cut held at 6% for a sixth straight month. Incentives often include mortgage rate buydowns. That is a tool most resale sellers can’t match dollar for dollar.
Here’s the catch. The new-home median sits about $41,100 below the existing single-family median, per Inman’s reading of NAR data. A buyer who is payment-sensitive can look at your listing and a new build in the same afternoon.
What Are Listings and Price Cuts Telling Sellers?
Listings are growing faster, and asking prices are sliding. Realtor.com’s weekly data, as reported by WRE News around September 19, 2026, showed active inventory up 5.8% year over year, accelerating from 5.0% the prior week. It was the 36th consecutive week of year-over-year listing-price declines.
That is asking prices, not closed sales. The two can diverge for a while. NAR shows closed prices still up 1.6%. Sellers are getting paid, but the list-price trend says many are starting lower or cutting.
On price cuts, the share of active listings with a cut was 20.4% in August, per Realtor.com data reported by Inman on September 1, 2026. It matched last year’s rate for the first time in 2026. You will see bigger numbers elsewhere, including a “record 42%” figure. Trackers measure different things, and I can’t verify that one. When someone quotes a price-cut statistic, ask which source and which metric.
Inventory context helps, too. Realtor.com says active listings remain about 11% below pre-pandemic levels. So this is not a glut. It is a market that has shifted from scarce to ordinary.
What It Means for Homeowners With Equity
Your equity is real, but your leverage has shrunk. If you bought years ago, you likely have a large cushion. That cushion lets you price sensibly and still walk away whole. It does not make a mispriced house sell.
Equity is also why many owners are not selling at all. HousingWire, citing an industry white paper on September 14, 2026, reported that homeowners held $34.9 trillion in equity in the first quarter of 2026, about $11 trillion of it tappable. The authors are industry vendors, so treat that as an industry view. Still, it fits what the listing data shows: delistings were down 12.6% year over year per Inman’s September 1 report, so sellers are not withdrawing en masse, but plenty of owners simply stay put and borrow against their homes.
That is the first decision. Sell, or stay and use the equity? With rates where they are, some owners will prefer to keep a lower-rate first mortgage and explore other ways to reach their goal. I’m not going to tell you which is right. It depends on your loan, your plans and your tolerance for carrying cost. If you want to see how different structures work, our loan options page carries the current guidelines, and a program’s fit is always subject to lender guidelines.
My Take
Buyers have more leverage, but not total leverage. I think the lazy read is “it’s a buyer’s market, so panic.” The data doesn’t say that. Prices are still rising year over year. Sales are still up for the year so far. The job is to stop being the most expensive, least prepared house on the block.
Three points I’d stand behind.
First, condition is now a pricing tool. When supply was thin, buyers forgave a lot. At 4.9 months of supply, they have options. A clean, repaired, neutral home competes against the new build down the road. A tired one competes against a discount.
Second, pricing discipline beats optimism. Weekly listing data shows asking prices falling for 36 straight weeks. If you price off a spring comp and the market has moved, you will end up cutting anyway, and a price cut signals stress. I’d rather price right once.
Third, the rate move is a headwind you can’t fix, but you can plan around. A quarter-point rise doesn’t sound like much. In my view it shows up at the margin, in the buyers who were stretching. Freddie’s rate is up 73 basis points from a year ago. Put another way, the same buyer has less room for your price. A plain hypothetical makes the point: if a rate moves from 6% to 7%, the difference is a full point, and that is felt in every monthly budget.
This one is a genuine toss-up: some sellers should wait for a better market, and some should move now. Waiting isn’t free. It depends on whether rates are likely to fall, and nobody knows that. Freddie’s chief economist said the housing market remains supported by a solid labor market and an economy growing at a healthy rate. The Federal Reserve has just tightened, though, and trade press says markets price another quarter-point in December. That is a secondary source’s read on market pricing, not a forecast I’d bank on.
What I’d Do Now
Start with the house. Here is how I’d sequence it, without telling you to sell or buy anything.
1. Get a clear-eyed condition list. Walk the house like a buyer who has seen six others that week. Note what is broken, dated, stained or smells. Then sort it: safety and systems first, cosmetic second, taste last.
2. Fix what a buyer will use against you. Leaks, failing fixtures, cracked caulk, peeling paint and tired hardware hand a buyer a negotiating script, so repair those items before listing. Skip the big remodel. A major project rarely pays back before you sell, and it adds carrying time in a market where demand has softened.
3. Clean and declutter before photos. Buyers see your listing online first. Neutral, bright and empty wins the scroll.
4. Price against current sales, not last spring. Look at recent closed sales and what is actually pending in your area, adjusted for condition. A national median tells you nothing about your street. Weigh homes that sold, not homes that are merely listed.
5. Plan for concessions. With builders using rate buydowns and incentives, some buyers will ask you for help. Decide in advance what you’ll give, whether price, repairs or a credit, so you aren’t improvising under pressure.
6. Know your own payoff path. Before you list, understand what you owe, what the sale nets and what comes next. If you’re buying again, that matters as much as the sale. Talk to a broker early about how the next purchase would be financed.
7. If you like a quote, lock it. A rate lock is an agreement that holds a quoted rate for a set period. Quotes gathered on different days are not comparable, because the market moved between them. With rates rising four weeks in a row, floating is a bet. You may win it. You may not.
If your next move involves a second home or an investment property, two of our related pieces cover how lenders look at reserves and leverage: using business cash as reserves on a second home and our guide to cash-out leverage on a second home with a bank statement loan. Both apply subject to lender guidelines.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file.
What Could Change This Picture?
Three open questions, in order of importance.
Do rates keep rising? Freddie’s weekly average lags the daily indexes, so the survey may catch up to the higher daily readings. The 10-year Treasury first crossed 5% on September 14, for the first time since October 2023. A secondary report put it as high as 5.27% on September 28. I’d check Treasury or FRED for the exact close before relying on it.
Is the new-home rebound real? One month of sales up 6.4% with wide margins of error is not a trend. WRE News argues the wide margins and elevated supply argue against calling it a turnaround. I agree.
Will inventory pressure turn into lower closed prices? Not yet, based on what the data shows so far. List prices are sliding, but closed prices are still positive. If the gap closes, it will close from the top.
For the end-to-end picture of how these loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Should I fix things before listing or sell as-is?
Fix the small, visible and safety-related items, and skip large remodels. With more listings and builder incentives, a home that looks neglected competes badly. A major project adds time and cost, and a buyer may not pay for it. Consider an as-is sale only if repairs are beyond your budget, and price it to reflect that.
Does the Fed’s September rate hike mean mortgage rates jump further?
Not automatically. The Fed raised its target range to 3-3/4 to 4 percent on September 16, 2026. Mortgage rates follow long-term yields more closely than the overnight rate. Long yields were already climbing before that meeting, so the hike is context, not the cause.
What does Freddie Mac’s 7.03% mean for my buyer?
It is a benchmark for borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit. Your buyer could see a higher or lower figure depending on credit, down payment and loan type. The MBA and Mortgage News Daily measure differently and ran higher in the same weeks. Exact terms depend on the lender’s guidelines, property type, leverage, and a full review of the borrower’s file.
Are price cuts common right now?
Yes, but the number depends on the source. Realtor.com’s data showed 20.4% of active listings had a price cut in August 2026. Other trackers use different measures and report different figures. When you see a statistic, ask who produced it and what it counts.
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Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) is a non-QM mortgage brokerage arranging DSCR investor loans in 41 markets — 40 states plus Washington, D.C. — and consumer mortgage programs, including bank statement, HELOC and down payment assistance options, in 16 states through wholesale lenders. Lendmire is the broker, never the lender; every file is underwritten by the lender under its own guidelines. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
1. NAR, August existing-home sales (September 10, 2026)
2. Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey (week of September 24, 2026)
3. Federal Reserve FOMC statement (September 16, 2026)
4. Inman, new-home sales and builder survey (September 25, 2026)
5. WRE News, weekly inventory (about September 19, 2026)
6. Inman, pending sales and price reductions (September 1, 2026)
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: Marketing Your Home In September 2026 As Supply Climbs And Buyers Gain Leverage · Listings Swell And Sellers Blink: Buyers Gain Negotiating Room This Fall · Why A Local Real Estate Broker Matters As Buyers Gain Leverage, September 2026?
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
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Disclosures. The information presented in this article is general market commentary, not financial, legal, or tax advice. Lendmire is a mortgage brokerage (NMLS# 2371349) — not a direct lender or depository institution — and loan placement is subject to lender underwriting. Nothing in this content represents a commitment to lend. Loan terms, pricing, and program availability vary based on borrower qualifications, property characteristics, and state of subject property, and are subject to change at any time. Lendmire complies with Equal Housing Opportunity requirements. Consumer access: nmlsconsumeraccess.org.