The Quick Read: As of September 28, 2026, buyers have more choice than they’ve had in years, and more negotiating room with it. Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, the fourth straight weekly increase. So the search can take its time, but the stretch between an accepted offer and the closing table is now where the risk sits. My read: shop patiently, then lock the day you like the deal.
Key Takeaways
- Existing-home inventory hit 1.62 million units in August, the most since November 2019, per NAR’s report of September 10, 2026.
- Freddie Mac’s weekly 30-year average rose four weeks running, from 6.71% (week of September 3) to 7.03% (week of September 24).
- The Fed raised its target range by 25 basis points on September 16, 2026.
- Builders are leaning on incentives, not list-price cuts, to move homes.
- Waiting for the perfect house is cheap. Waiting to lock a rate is not.
What changed
Inventory is the good news. NAR’s August existing-home sales report, released September 10, 2026, showed inventory at 1.62 million units. That’s up 3.2% from July and 5.9% from August 2025. Months of supply rose to 4.9 from 4.6 in July. Sales slipped 2.0% on the month to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 3.98 million.
Months of supply is simple. It’s how long current inventory would last at the current sales pace. A higher number means buyers hold more cards.
Prices haven’t caught up to that shift. HousingWire reported NAR’s August median at $429,100, up 1.6% from a year earlier. More listings, softer demand, prices still edging up. Hold that thought, because it matters below.
New construction tells a similar story. The Census Bureau’s new residential sales release for August showed a 684,000 annual pace and 8.5 months of new-home supply. Census flags the monthly change as within the margin of error, so don’t read a trend into it. The NAHB builder survey for September found 66% of builders using sales incentives, up from 63% in August. Another 38% cut prices, with the average cut holding at 6%. NAHB’s chairman blamed weaker buyer traffic on rising mortgage rates.
Now the other side. Here is the weekly path in Freddie Mac’s survey:
| Week of | 30-year fixed average | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Sept. 3 | 6.71% | up 5 bp |
| Sept. 10 | 6.76% | up 5 bp |
| Sept. 17 | 6.95% | up 19 bp |
| Sept. 24 | 7.03% | up 8 bp |
A year ago the same survey read 6.30%, so the average is up 73 basis points on the year. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point. The survey measures conventional, conforming loans for borrowers with excellent credit and a 20% down payment, so treat it as a benchmark, not a quote. Final terms depend on lender guidelines, property type, leverage, and the borrower’s complete credit picture.
Other gauges run higher. The MBA’s weekly survey, released September 23, 2026 for the week ending September 18, put its 30-year contract rate at 7.12%, up from 6.97%. The Mortgage News Daily index sat at 7.50% on September 28, its highest since April 30, 2024. That index tracks lender rate sheets in real time. The gaps come from timing and method, not disagreement.
What drove it? The Fed’s September 16 implementation note set the federal funds target at 3-3/4 to 4 percent, up from 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent at the June meeting. CNBC reported a 12-0 vote, with projections pointing to the possibility of another hike this year. But the Fed sets the overnight rate, not your mortgage. Mortgage pricing follows longer-term bond yields. CNBC reported the 10-year Treasury near 5.23% on September 28, after trading just below 4.8% earlier in the month. That’s a climb of roughly 40 basis points in September.
What it means for home buyers
Buyers have leverage on price and terms. They have no leverage on the rate.
That split is the whole column. NAR’s chief economist said ample supply is giving buyers better opportunities to negotiate. I agree. Sellers sitting on a listing longer are easier to talk to about repairs, credits and timing. Builders are already doing this, with 66% offering incentives.
But here’s the catch. A concession from a seller or builder is a one-time dollar amount. A rate move lasts for the life of the loan. If the average moves from 7% to 7.5%, that half point doesn’t go away because the seller fixed the roof.
Demand is already thinner. The MBA’s seasonally adjusted Purchase Index fell 1% for the week ending September 18 and sat 11% below a year earlier on an unadjusted basis. Its Refinance Index was 62% lower than a year ago. Fewer buyers means less competition for the homes you’re touring. It also means a market that has already flinched.
What about prices? I wouldn’t count on a drop. NAR’s median is still up year over year. The Realtor.com data shows listing prices softer than a year ago, so asking prices are leading and closed prices may follow. But “may” is carrying that sentence. Plan for flat, and treat any drop as a bonus.
Is the “best week to buy” real?
Partly. Realtor.com’s 2026 Best Time to Buy Report, published September 10, 2026, names September 27 through October 3 as the best balance of inventory, price and competition. It cites up to 31.9% more active listings than at the start of the year and listing prices about 3.5% below their seasonal peak.
I take that seriously as a seasonal pattern. I don’t take it as a deadline. The same report’s economist noted that rates remain above year-ago levels, offering buyers little financing relief. A good week for selection isn’t a good week for financing, and the report itself says so.
National numbers also say little about your street. Some markets are loaded with listings. Others are still tight. A national average of 4.9 months of supply hides both.
My take
Conditions right now favor patient buyers, who can take time to compare properties and negotiate, and they work against buyers who float their rate and hope the market moves in their favor.
Floating means leaving your rate unlocked and hoping the market helps you. In a falling market, that works. Four straight weekly increases, a Fed that has raised its target and projections pointing to more, and an October hike priced by CME FedWatch at about 64% (per CNBC on September 26) are not a falling market. I’m not predicting the next move. Nobody can. I’m saying the direction of the last month argues against gambling on the next one.
There’s also a common misreading to clear up. A headline saying rates have just crossed a major round-number milestone is usually describing a lagging weekly average. Mortgage News Daily’s daily index had already been running higher. The weekly survey is useful, but it trails the market by design.
Another one: builder incentives don’t lower rates. They offset financing costs, which is a different thing. A builder buydown or credit can help, but it doesn’t change where the market sits on the day you lock. Ask what the incentive is worth and what it’s tied to.
Thinking out loud: is the better move to buy now or wait for the inventory to keep building? Honestly, it’s closer than the headlines suggest. More inventory could keep coming, and that favors waiting. But rates have been rising, and that favors moving once you find the right house. For a buyer who finds a home that fits the budget today, I lean toward acting and locking. For a buyer who’s still unsure of the budget, I lean toward using the extra time to get the file ready.
What I’d do now
Nothing here is advice to buy or sell any particular property. It’s how I’d sequence the decisions.
1. Get the financing sorted before you tour. Compare loan options with a broker before you fall for a house. A pre-approval is only as useful as the file behind it, and some borrowers fit programs beyond the standard conforming box. Self-employed buyers and investors, for example, may fit products that qualify on bank statements or rental income rather than tax-return income, subject to lender guidelines. Our loan options page carries the current guidelines.
2. Use the leverage where you have it. Ask for repair credits, closing-cost help and flexible dates. Sellers have more reason to say yes than they did last spring.
3. Shorten your exposure. Every week between accepted offer and closing is a week of rate risk if you haven’t locked. A rate lock is an agreement that holds a quoted rate for a set period, subject to its terms. If you like the deal, lock.
4. Ask about lock terms, not just the rate. Lock length, extension costs and what happens if the closing date slips all matter more when rates are rising.
5. Compare quotes on the same day. Quotes gathered on different days aren’t comparable. Bond markets move daily, and a number from last Tuesday is history.
6. Don’t count on a refinance to rescue you. The MBA’s Refinance Index is 62% below a year ago. A refi can work out, but it’s a plan that depends on a future you can’t see.
If you own a home with real equity, the lock-in effect matters too. Many owners hold a first mortgage they don’t want to give up, so equity is increasingly tapped some other way. I’ve written about using home equity to buy a rental property and the tradeoffs involved. MCT, a mortgage-servicing valuation firm, noted in its September 2026 update that non-QM demand keeps rising and that equity extraction is steering toward HELOCs and second liens. That’s a market observation, not a recommendation.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file.
What I can’t tell you
Three things are open, and I’d rather say so than fake confidence.
First, where rates go next. The Fed’s own projections lean toward another hike, and futures markets lean the same way, but a lot of that may already sit in the 10-year yield.
Second, whether rising inventory turns into lower closed prices. NAR’s median is still up. Realtor.com’s listing prices are down. Those two can’t both lead forever.
Third, how much of your local market looks like the national one. It may look nothing like it.
For the end-to-end picture of how DSCR loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is September 2026 a good time to buy a home?
For selection and negotiating room, yes. NAR’s August report showed inventory at its highest since November 2019, and builders are offering incentives at a rising rate. For financing, it’s a tougher month, because Freddie Mac’s weekly 30-year average rose four weeks in a row. Whether it’s good for you depends on your budget and your local market.
Should I wait for mortgage rates to come down?
Nobody can time that reliably. The Fed raised its target range on September 16, 2026, and its projections point to the possibility of another hike this year. If you find a home that fits your budget, waiting for a rate drop is a bet. Locking removes the bet. If rates do fall later, a refinance may be an option, but it isn’t a promise.
Why do Freddie Mac, the MBA and Mortgage News Daily publish different figures?
They measure different things on different schedules. Freddie Mac’s survey is a weekly average for strong-credit, conforming borrowers. The MBA reports a contract figure from its application survey. Mortgage News Daily’s index tracks lender pricing sheets daily. The difference is timing and method, not a contradiction. None is a quote for any individual borrower.
Do builder incentives make buying new construction a better deal?
Sometimes. NAHB reported that 66% of builders used incentives in September 2026, and 38% cut prices. An incentive can offset financing costs, but it doesn’t change the market rate on the day you lock. Compare the incentive’s value with what you’d negotiate on an existing home, and ask what conditions come with it.
When should I lock my mortgage rate?
Once you have an accepted offer and you’re comfortable with the terms, ask your loan officer or broker about locking. A lock is a mechanic that protects you from rate moves during the loan process, subject to its length and conditions. In a month when the survey average climbed every week, leaving it unlocked has been the costlier choice so far.
About Lendmire
Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) is a non-QM mortgage brokerage arranging DSCR investor loans in 41 markets — 40 states plus Washington, D.C. — and consumer mortgage programs, including bank statement, HELOC and down payment assistance options, in 16 states through wholesale lenders. Lendmire is the broker, never the lender; every file is underwritten by the lender under its own guidelines. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
1. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
2. NAR August 2026 existing-home sales report
3. Census Bureau new residential sales
4. NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, September 2026
5. 2026 Best Time to Buy Report
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: Housing Market This September: Rates Rise As Inventory And Buyer Leverage Grow · Home Inspection Process In September 2026: Buyers Regain Leverage As Supply Grows · Getting Your House Ready To Sell In A September 2026 Buyer-leaning Market
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
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Important disclosures. Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) is a licensed mortgage brokerage. Lendmire is not a direct lender, depository institution, or financial advisor. All loan inquiries are subject to lender underwriting; this article does not constitute a commitment to lend. Rates, terms, and program guidelines are subject to change without notice and vary by borrower profile, property type, and state. Information in this article is general in nature and is not financial, legal, or tax advice. Equal Housing Opportunity. NMLS Consumer Access: nmlsconsumeraccess.org.