The Quick Read: As of September 28, 2026, borrowing costs are climbing while the choice of homes is widening. Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, 2026, its fourth straight weekly rise. Existing-home sales slipped in August, supply grew, and builders leaned on price cuts and incentives. Buyers have more room to negotiate, but higher financing costs are eating into it.
This is not the usual seasonal cooldown. Sales usually soften after summer, and rates usually drift. This year the rate move is sharp, the Fed raised its target for the first time since 2023, and the supply data points the same way across several sources. Everything below comes from dated public reports. I’ve named each source and its date so you can check the work.
Key takeaways
- Freddie Mac’s 30-year average rose four straight weeks through September 24, 2026. That is up 37 basis points from the prior-week figure in its September 3 release, and 73 basis points above a year earlier.
- The Fed raised its target range by a quarter point on September 16, 2026. Long-term yields had already been climbing before that vote.
- NAR’s report on September 10 showed August existing-home sales down 2.0%, with inventory at 1.62 million homes and 4.9 months of supply.
- Builders are cutting prices and offering incentives at higher rates. Redfin’s data shows sellers outnumbering buyers by a record margin.
- Leverage is up, but prices are not collapsing. Median sale prices are still slightly higher than a year ago.
What changed in the rate market?
Rates rose every week in September, and the pace picked up in the middle of the month. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the 30-year fixed at 6.71% for the week of September 3, 6.76% on September 10, 6.95% on September 17 and 7.03% on September 24. The September 17 jump was 19 basis points, the biggest single-week move of the four. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point.
Freddie Mac’s September 3 release listed 6.66% for the prior week, so the streak likely began before September. Measured from that figure, the 30-year is up 37 basis points. A year ago the same series averaged 6.30%, so the annual gap is 73 basis points. The National Apartment Association says this is the highest 30-year reading of 2026. Freddie Mac’s own page doesn’t make that claim, so treat it as the NAA’s read.
Other gauges tell the same story at different levels. The MBA’s weekly survey, released September 23, put its 30-year contract rate for conforming balances at 7.12% for the week ending September 18, up from 6.97%. Mortgage News Daily’s index showed the average lender at 7.50% on September 28, the first time at that level since April 30, 2024. I can’t give you a dated daily move for that index, so I won’t invent one.
Those three readings differ because they measure different things. Freddie Mac’s survey covers conventional, conforming purchase loans for borrowers with excellent credit and a sizable down payment. The MBA reports contract rates drawn from loan applications. Mortgage News Daily tracks a daily index. None of them reflects what any one borrower pays. Use them for direction, not for a quote. Specifics are subject to lender guidelines and a full review of property, leverage, and credit.
The bond market moved first
The 10-year Treasury yield drives much of mortgage pricing. CNBC reported on September 15 that the 10-year touched 5.041% intraday, the highest since July 2007. CNBC’s September 26 piece said the yield surged to 5.23% on Friday, September 25, after sitting just below 4.8% earlier in the month.
One caution. Another adviser note put Friday’s settle a little lower than CNBC’s figure. I couldn’t reconcile the two against Treasury data, so treat the exact close as unsettled. The direction is not in doubt.
CNBC’s coverage points to heavy government and corporate bond issuance as a bigger driver this year. Other outlets weigh inflation, oil prices and deficits differently. The honest answer is that the sources don’t agree on the mix.
Did the Fed hike push rates up?
Not by itself. The Federal Reserve’s statement on September 16, 2026 shows the FOMC voted 12–0 to raise the target range by a quarter point, to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. The statement calls inflation “elevated.” Kiplinger describes it as the first increase in the federal funds rate since July 2023. In July, the Committee had held steady.
The Fed sets a short-term rate. Mortgage rates follow longer-term yields. Those yields were already rising before the vote. CNBC’s decision-day coverage says the 10-year was up about a quarter point since the August 28 Jackson Hole remarks. Freddie Mac’s survey week that produced the 19-basis-point jump ran through September 16, before the hike took effect. That is my reading of the survey window, and it fits Freddie Mac’s stated schedule.
So the Fed didn’t start this move. It confirmed the direction the bond market had already taken. The signals about what comes next are mixed. TD Economics’ summary says the median projection for the federal funds rate this year rose to 4.1%, which points to another hike by year-end. For 2027, CNBC reports that eight officials pointed to another hike, six to holding steady and four to cuts. Market odds of an October hike vary by source, and they answer different questions, so I’d leave them alone.
What changed in sales and supply?
Sales are softer and there are more homes to choose from. NAR’s existing-home sales report, released September 10, shows August sales fell 2.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million. Inventory rose to 1.62 million homes, or 4.9 months of supply. The median price was $429,100.
That followed a 1.7% drop in July, per NAR’s release on August 11. Two straight monthly declines is a trend, not a blip. HousingWire noted that August was the first time since June 2025 that the pace fell below 4 million.
Context matters here, and the “sales are collapsing” headline misses it. Per NAR’s release, sales are down 1.2% from a year ago but up 1.6% for the year through August. NAR’s chief economist tied the dip directly to rates, saying mortgage rates and home sales move in opposite directions.
The new-home side
New construction tells a different story. The Census Bureau reported on September 24 that August new-home sales ran at 684,000, up 6.4% from July and 2.0% below August 2025. The median new-home price was $393,700, down 5.8% from a year earlier. Inventory stood at 483,000 homes, or 8.5 months of supply.
Don’t lean too hard on that 6.4% gain. Inman reported that Census flagged the monthly increase as not statistically significant. Census margins of error on this series are wide. The figure flagged as significant was the drop in average new-home price.
Builders are behaving like sellers with too much stock. Inman, citing the NAHB and a large national bank survey, says 38% of builders cut prices in September, up from 35%. And 66% used incentives, up from 63% and the highest share since December. HousingWire says builders are using price adjustments, rate buydowns and lower price points.
A rate buydown is a payment from the seller or builder that lowers the buyer’s financing cost for a set period or for the life of the loan. Terms vary by builder and by loan, and they are set by the lender, so ask what the buydown actually does before you count it as a discount.
Where is buyer leverage showing up?
Leverage shows up in the number of listings, the share of price cuts and the mood of sellers. The data is consistent across sources.
Redfin’s August buyers-versus-sellers report, published September 10, says sellers outnumbered buyers by 58%, the biggest gap in the company’s records. Only five metros were seller’s markets. Redfin’s weekly report on September 3 said new listings hit a four-year high while pending sales sat at their lowest since February.
Realtor.com’s August report, released September 2, put the median list price at $424,500, down 1.3% year over year. That’s the tenth straight annual decline in list prices. It also found 20.4% of active listings had price cuts. Buyers can also negotiate terms. Fortune, citing Redfin on September 26, reports that buyers still in the market face less competition and can negotiate better terms, including concessions.
Demand is thin, though. Redfin’s mid-September report said pending sales fell 3.5% from the prior week to their lowest level in almost three years. The MBA’s September 23 release put its purchase index 11% below a year earlier, unadjusted. HousingWire says the pressure is most acute among first-time and affordability-driven buyers.
Is it a glut or still tight?
Both readings exist. NAR’s supply figure is high. Reuters, on September 24, said there is still a shortage of previously owned homes, especially starter homes. Realtor.com’s report shows delistings ran 12.6% below last year’s pace, which means sellers are showing more patience than in 2025.
That matters for leverage. If sellers pull listings instead of cutting prices, the buyer’s advantage shrinks. Realtor.com’s economist called August a seasonal cool-down. Redfin’s near three-year low in pending sales suggests more than seasonality is at work. I’d say the truth sits between the two, and one more month of data will tell.
Prices are not collapsing
A “buyer’s market” does not mean falling prices. NAR’s median sale price is still up 1.6% from a year ago. Redfin’s median sale price was up 2% year over year in its mid-September report. The declines are in list prices and in new-home prices.
What does this mean for real estate investors?
Investors have more properties to choose from and a higher cost to finance them. That is the whole story, and it cuts both ways. More listings and more price cuts widen the field. A rising 10-year yield raises what it costs to hold a rental.
I found no independent, dated public data on investor-loan volume in this window. The one non-QM number in my research is a projection from an opinion column that non-QM issuance would top $100 billion in 2026. That’s a forecast, not a measurement. I’d treat it as background only.
What I can say is how the math works. Loans built for investors, which qualify mainly on the property’s rent rather than the owner’s personal income, live and die on one comparison: the rent against the monthly debt payment. Every basis point of rate increase makes that comparison harder. Subject to lender guidelines, the details differ by program, and our loan options page carries the current guidelines.
Duplexes and small multifamily can help the comparison, since more rent supports one loan. I wrote about how a duplex can get the same leverage as a single-family home for buyers weighing that route. Property type still matters less than price and rent.
Self-employed borrowers are a group where I have no data. I found no dated, independent public dataset on their volume or approval patterns in this window. I won’t infer one.
Owners sitting on equity
Refinancing is scarce right now. The MBA’s refinance index fell 3% in the week ending September 18 and sat 62% below a year earlier. A rate-and-term refinance only pays when the new rate is meaningfully lower. With the 30-year around 7% in Freddie Mac’s survey, few existing loans qualify on that test.
Sellers aren’t fleeing either, which is why the delisting data matters. Owners with low-rate loans have every reason to stay put. That keeps resale supply tighter than the headline months-of-supply figure suggests.
My take
My read is that this is a real shift, not a September wobble. Rates, supply and sales are all moving in the same direction, and the data comes from independent publishers. That’s rare.
Here is the part that gets missed. Buyer leverage and buyer power are not the same thing. Leverage is the ability to negotiate. Power is the ability to pay. A record gap between sellers and buyers gives you leverage. A 7% 30-year in Freddie Mac’s survey takes some of the power back.
Run a plain hypothetical. If a rate moves from 6% to 7%, the difference is a full point. On a loan that size, a seller’s price cut can be wiped out by the change in financing cost. That’s why concessions like buydowns and closing-cost credits deserve as much attention as list price.
I also think the “wait for rates to fall” crowd is betting on something the data doesn’t support. The Fed’s median projection points to another hike this year. Long yields are driven by bond supply and inflation worries the Fed doesn’t control. Waiting for 2021 is not a plan.
Where I could be wrong: the new-home rebound could prove real if the revisions hold, and sellers could keep pulling listings, which would shrink supply again. This one’s a genuine toss-up on timing. It isn’t a toss-up on direction for this month.
What I’d do now
I can’t tell you to buy or sell a specific asset. I can tell you how I’d think about it.
If you’re buying a home to live in: Price the deal at today’s cost of money. Don’t count on a refinance to fix the payment. Ask for concessions, then compare them by total value, not just headline price. Builders are the most motivated sellers in this data, so their incentives are worth a look. If you’re using assistance programs, note that down payment assistance programs treat borrowers who’ve owned before differently, so check how each one defines a repeat buyer.
If you’re buying a rental: Underwrite the property on rent and today’s financing cost only. If it works at today’s cost, more listings mean a better shot at a good one. If it only works with a lower rate, it doesn’t work.
If you’re shopping loans: Quotes gathered on different days are not comparable. The 10-year moved by double-digit basis points inside a single month. A quote from September 10 and one from September 24 measure different markets. Get quotes on the same day, then compare.
On locking: A rate lock is an agreement that holds a quoted rate for a set period, subject to the lender’s terms. Floating means you’re leaving it open. When rates are rising, floating is a bet that the trend turns. If you’ve found a home and the payment works, lock it. If you can’t afford the loan at today’s market, floating won’t fix that.
If you own with equity: A cash-out move is a bigger commitment than it was a year ago, because you’d be replacing an existing loan at a higher rate. Think hard about whether a second-lien option fits better. That’s a conversation to have with a broker who can compare structures.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file.
For the end-to-end picture of how these loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are mortgage rates going to keep rising?
Nobody knows, and the sources disagree. The Fed’s median projection points to another hike this year, per TD Economics’ summary of the September 16 meeting. For 2027, CNBC reports that eight officials pointed to a hike, six to a hold and four to cuts. Long-term yields depend on bond supply and inflation as well as the Fed. Plan for today’s rates, not a forecast.
Why did home sales fall if there are more homes for sale?
Financing costs. NAR reported on September 10 that August existing-home sales fell 2.0% while inventory rose to 1.62 million homes. NAR’s chief economist said mortgage rates and home sales move in opposite directions. Higher rates keep some buyers out even when the choice improves.
Did the Fed’s rate hike raise my mortgage rate?
Not directly. The Fed raised its short-term target range by a quarter point on September 16, 2026. Mortgage rates track longer-term yields, and the 10-year had been rising before that vote. The hike confirmed the direction. It didn’t create it.
Why do different sources show different mortgage rates?
They measure different things. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey covers conforming purchase loans for borrowers with strong credit and a sizable down payment. The MBA reports contract terms from applications, and Mortgage News Daily runs a daily index. None of them is a quote for you. Your own pricing depends on your file and the lender’s terms, so get quotes on the same day. Terms vary by lender guidelines, property type, leverage, credit profile, and full file review.
About Lendmire
Lendmire — NMLS# 2371349 — is a mortgage brokerage whose founder writes this column. DSCR investor programs reach 41 markets, including Washington, D.C.; consumer programs such as bank statement, HELOC and down payment assistance loans are arranged in 16 states; every loan is placed with, and underwritten by, a wholesale lender under that lender’s guidelines. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
1. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
2. Freddie Mac release, week of September 3, 2026
3. National Apartment Association on Freddie Mac rates
4. MBA Weekly Applications Survey, September 23, 2026
5. CNBC: 10-year yield, September 15, 2026
6. CNBC: 10-year yield, September 26, 2026
7. Federal Reserve FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
8. Kiplinger: Fed meeting updates
9. CNBC: Fed rate decision, September 16, 2026
12. NAR July release, August 11, 2026
13. Inman: August new-home sales, September 25, 2026
14. HousingWire: builder incentives, September 24, 2026
15. Redfin buyers versus sellers, September 10, 2026
16. Redfin weekly report, September 3, 2026
17. August report
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: Labor Day and Your Loan: Strategic Steps for Homebuyers Eyeing a September Move · Spring 2025 Housing Market: What Buyers Need to Know · Summer Solstice Savvy: Timing Your Home Purchase for Maximum Benefit in the Longest Days of the Year
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
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Required disclosures. Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) operates as a licensed mortgage broker, not a direct lender or depository. The discussion in this article is general in nature and should not be relied upon as financial, legal, or tax advice — every investment scenario is unique and should be reviewed by a qualified professional. Any loan inquiry is subject to lender underwriting, and this article is not a commitment to lend or a guarantee of approval. Mortgage rates, loan terms, and program guidelines vary by borrower, property, and state, and may change without notice. Equal Housing Opportunity. Verify licensure at NMLS Consumer Access.