The Quick Read: As of September 28, 2026, buyers have more homes to choose from and less room in their budgets. NAR’s August report showed a 4.9-month supply, the highest in over ten years by its chief economist’s account. Freddie Mac’s 30-year average has risen four weeks in a row. The sellers who move are the ones who price for today’s buyer and stand out from the new-construction sales pitch.
Key Takeaways
- Existing-home sales fell 2.0% in August to a 3.98 million annual pace, and supply reached 4.9 months, per NAR’s report of September 10, 2026.
- Freddie Mac’s survey for the week of September 24, 2026 has the 30-year fixed at 7.03%, up from 6.95% the week before.
- Most builders offer incentives (66%), while 38% cut prices, per NAHB’s September survey. Resale sellers can’t match a buydown easily.
- Price direction depends on the source. Closed sales and asking prices are telling different stories.
- Selling isn’t the only way to use equity. Some owners are borrowing against it instead.
What Changed This Month
Sales slipped and supply rose. NAR’s existing-home sales report, released September 10, 2026, showed August sales down 2.0% from July. That is a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million. Inventory hit 1.62 million units, up 5.9% from a year earlier. Months of supply is how long the current stock would last at the current sales pace. It stood at 4.9, up from 4.6 a year ago.
NAR’s chief economist said the ample supply gives buyers better chances to negotiate. I agree. That is a real shift in leverage.
Keep it in proportion, though. Sales are not collapsing. Year-to-date existing sales are still up 1.6%, per the same NAR release. One soft month is not a crash.
Rates kept climbing. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, 2026. A year earlier it averaged 6.30%, so the rate is up 73 basis points on the year. The four weekly readings this month were 6.71%, 6.76%, 6.95% and 7.03%. That is 32 basis points in three weeks.
One caution on that number. Freddie’s survey covers conventional, conforming purchase loans for borrowers with 20% down and excellent credit. It also lags the daily market. Mortgage News Daily’s index read 7.50% on its page on September 28, 2026, and its September 24 commentary says the daily index first broke above 7% on September 10. So the “rates just crossed 7%” headline is late. The market got there earlier. Every figure here varies by lender and program — guidelines, property type, leverage, and credit profile all apply.
The Fed moved, but it isn’t the whole story. On September 16, 2026, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC statement raised the federal funds target range by a quarter point, to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. The vote was 12–0. CNBC called it the first increase since 2023.
Don’t confuse the Fed hike with the cause of higher mortgage rates. Mortgage rates track longer-term yields, and those were already rising. CNBC reported on September 25, 2026 that the 10-year Treasury yield sat at 5.163%, after touching its highest level since June 2007 the day before. You can track the series at FRED.
Demand is thinner. A published survey for the week ending September 18, 2026 showed purchase applications 11% lower than a year earlier on an unadjusted basis. Refinance applications were 62% lower. The MBA report came out September 23.
Are Home Prices Rising or Falling?
Both, depending on what you measure. NAR’s median sale price for August was $429,100, up 1.6% from a year earlier. Realtor.com’s report of September 2, 2026 showed the median list price at $424,500, down 1.3% from a year earlier. Its data also showed 20.4% of active listings carried a price reduction.
These measure different things. NAR counts closed sales, which reflect deals struck weeks ago. Realtor.com counts asking prices today. Closed sales lag. My read: asking prices are the earlier signal, and they say sellers are adjusting. They haven’t capitulated. Delistings ran 12.6% below last year’s pace, which tells me many sellers would rather wait than cut.
Also, this is a national average. Realtor.com’s data shows price cuts are least common in the Northeast and Midwest and most common in the South and West. Your street may look nothing like the national picture. Don’t read any national number as your local market.
Why New Construction Changes Your Math
Here is what I’d watch most closely. Your buyer is shopping against a builder.
NAHB’s September survey (released about September 16, 2026) found builder confidence fell three points to 32. It found 66% of builders using sales incentives, up from 63% in August. And 38% cut prices, up from 35%, with the average cut at 6%. So incentives are the main tool. Price cuts are the second tool. Anyone writing that “most builders are cutting prices” has the number wrong.
NAHB’s chairman said buyer traffic has weakened across much of the country, largely because of higher mortgage rates. Builders respond with rate buydowns and help with closing costs. A rate buydown means someone pays cash up front to lower the buyer’s interest rate for a period or for the life of the loan. Builders can do that in volume. Most individual sellers can’t.
Census data put new-home supply at 8.5 months at the current sales pace in August. That is more than the 4.9 months in the resale market. Builders have reason to keep discounting.
What It Means for Homeowners With Equity
If you have equity and you’re thinking of selling, the buyer across the table is stretched. Payment is the constraint, not price alone. A small move in the interest rate can change what a buyer can afford more than a modest price cut does. Take a plain hypothetical: if a rate moves from 6.5% to 7.5%, that is a full point, and a buyer on a tight budget feels it.
So the seller’s job is to make the home easy to say yes to. Three levers matter:
1. Price. Price to the buyers who are actually in the market today, not to what a neighbor got last spring.
2. Presentation. When buyers have more choices, condition and photos do more work. A clean, bright, uncluttered home gets the showing.
3. Terms. A seller credit toward closing costs or a rate buydown can do more for a payment-stretched buyer than the same money taken off the price. Ask your agent to model both against your likely buyer.
My Take
I think the “wait for spring” instinct is a bet, not a plan. Nothing in this month’s data says rates are headed down. The Fed’s own statement says inflation remains elevated, and CNBC reports projections pointing to possible further hikes. I can’t tell you where rates go. Neither can anyone else.
My opinion on pricing: overpricing to “leave room to negotiate” is a poor tactic right now. Buyers have options, and a listing that looks too high gets passed over. Fresh listings get their best attention early. A price that needs a cut in three weeks has already lost its best audience.
This one’s a toss-up, honestly: whether more sellers cut price or simply pull their listings off the market. NAR frames supply as buyer leverage. Realtor.com sees patient sellers. Neither source says which way it breaks this fall.
Another Path: Borrow Against the Equity
Selling isn’t the only way to use equity. HousingWire reported around September 14, 2026 that tappable equity has reached $11 trillion, and that nearly 79% of mortgage holders have a rate below 6%. Those owners have a reason not to sell and take on a new mortgage at a higher rate.
That is why home equity lines are gaining share. CreditUnions.com reports credit union HELOC balances grew 13.4% year over year in the second quarter, though growth is moderating. A HELOC is a line of credit secured by your home, separate from your first mortgage. Owners who are self-employed or who don’t fit a standard file may look at other products instead. You can see what we broker on our loan options page, which carries the current guidelines, all subject to lender guidelines.
I’m not telling you to sell or to borrow. The right answer depends on why you want to move. If you want a different house, you sell. If you want cash for a project or a cushion, borrowing may beat selling at today’s rates. A broker can compare options across the lenders we work with.
What I’d Do Now
- Get the local data. Ask your agent for recent sold and pending comps within your area, plus the current active listings you’d compete with. National numbers are context, not a price.
- Check the builders. If new communities are near you, find out what incentives they’re advertising. That is your real competition.
- Set a review date. Decide before you list when you’ll reassess if there’s no offer activity. Two to three weeks is a common trigger among agents.
- If you’re buying too, mind the lock. A rate lock is an agreement that holds your quoted rate for a set period. Quotes gathered on different days aren’t comparable, because the market moved between them. If you like the deal and the payment works, lock it.
- Weigh equity options. Compare selling, a home equity line and other products before you decide.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file.
For the end-to-end picture of how DSCR loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Should I wait for rates to fall before I sell?
No. Waiting is a bet on something no one can forecast. Freddie Mac’s survey rose four weeks running through September 24, 2026, and the Fed raised its target range on September 16. If your reasons for selling are real, plan around today’s market.
Does 4.9 months of supply mean it’s a buyer’s market?
It means buyers have more leverage than a year ago, when supply was 4.6 months. It’s a national average, though. Price cuts are least common in the Northeast and Midwest and most common in the South and West. Your local supply figure matters more.
Is 7.03% what buyers are actually paying?
Not exactly. That is Freddie Mac’s weekly average for conventional, conforming loans with 20% down and excellent credit. Mortgage News Daily’s daily index read 7.50% on September 28, 2026. Individual borrowers’ offers vary by file, loan type and the day quoted. Final terms depend on lender guidelines, property type, leverage, and the borrower’s complete credit picture.
Should I cut my price or offer a credit?
It depends on your buyer, and you should ask your agent to model both. Builders lean on incentives such as buydowns and closing-cost help because they fit a payment-stretched buyer. A credit can ease the monthly payment without lowering your recorded sale price.
Are prices falling yet?
Sources disagree. NAR’s median sale price was up 1.6% year over year in August. Realtor.com’s median list price was down 1.3%. Closed sales lag asking prices, so the asking-price drop may be the earlier signal.
Investors who want the broader program framework can review how DSCR loans work.
About Lendmire
Lendmire — NMLS# 2371349 — is a mortgage brokerage whose founder writes this column. DSCR investor programs reach 41 markets, including Washington, D.C.; consumer programs such as bank statement, HELOC and down payment assistance loans are arranged in 16 states; every loan is placed with, and underwritten by, a wholesale lender under that lender’s guidelines. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
1. NAR existing-home sales report, August 2026
2. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
3. Federal Reserve FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
4. MBA Weekly Applications Survey, September 23, 2026
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: Walkable Neighborhood Selling Points In A Softening September 2026 Market · Listing Your Home For Sale This Fall As Inventory Climbs And Rates Rise · Extras Included When You Buy Real Estate: September 2026 Buyer Leverage
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
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Legal disclosures. Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) is a state-licensed mortgage brokerage that arranges financing through wholesale lender relationships. Lendmire is not a direct lender, depository institution, or registered financial advisor. The discussion above is general informational content about real estate financing — it is not financial, legal, or tax advice, and readers should consult licensed professionals for guidance on their individual circumstances. Loan inquiries are subject to lender underwriting; this article does not represent a commitment to lend. Loan terms, rates, and qualification standards vary by borrower, property, and state, and are subject to change at any time. Equal Housing Opportunity. NMLS Consumer Access: nmlsconsumeraccess.org.