The Quick Read: as of September 28, 2026, the buyer across the table has more choices and a tighter budget than the one your neighbor met last spring. NAR’s report of September 10 shows inventory and months of supply at multi-year highs, and Freddie Mac’s survey of September 24 shows mortgage rates up four straight weeks. Price for that buyer, not for the calendar. The homes that sell this fall will be priced right on day one.
Key takeaways
- The old rule says list in spring or summer. This fall, leverage matters more than season. Buyers have more listings to choose from and less room in their budgets.
- Prices are not falling nationally yet. Price cuts and seller concessions are showing up first.
- Rates are moving up, and the driver is longer-term Treasury yields. Waiting for a rate drop is a bet, not a plan.
- Homeowners are also borrowing against equity instead of selling. Both paths deserve a look before you list.
- Price on day one for a buyer who is counting every dollar of the monthly budget. Then decide what you can offer to help that buyer.
What changed since the summer selling season?
Three things moved at once. Sales slowed, inventory rose, and borrowing costs climbed. Here are the dated facts.
Sales and inventory. NAR’s existing-home sales report, released September 10, 2026, showed August sales down 2.0% from July and 1.2% from a year earlier. The seasonally adjusted annual pace was 3.98 million. That is the first reading below 4.0 million since June 2025.
Inventory stood at 1.62 million homes. That is up 5.9% from August 2025. It is also the first time since November 2019 that inventory topped 1.6 million.
Supply reached 4.9 months, up from 4.6 months in July. Months of supply is simply how long today’s listings would last at the current sales pace. NAR’s chief economist called this the highest supply in over ten years. He also said it gives buyers better opportunities to negotiate.
Prices. NAR put the median existing-home price at $429,100, up 1.6% from a year earlier. So the national number has not cracked. Look one layer down and you see the pressure. Realtor.com’s August report, released September 2, 2026, showed 20.4% of active listings with a price reduction. The median list price was $424,500, down 1.3% from a year earlier. Pending sales fell year over year for the first time since last November.
Concessions. Redfin data, reported by RISMedia on September 23, 2026, showed 44.7% of buyers received seller concessions in August. A year earlier the figure was 42.6%. That is the highest August share since 2020. A concession is a credit from the seller, often toward closing costs or a rate buydown.
Builders. New construction is your other competitor. The Census Bureau’s new residential sales report, released September 24, 2026, put the August median new-home price at $393,700, down 5.8% from a year earlier. Census flags some of these monthly changes as within the margin of error, so read them as direction, not precision.
The builder survey is clearer. Per Inman’s September 25 report on the NAHB/a large national bank index, 38% of builders reported price cuts in September, up from 35% in August. And 66% used sales incentives, the highest share since December.
Builders have spent much of 2026 buying down mortgage rates and moving toward lower price points. That is what your listing sits next to online.
How far did rates climb?
Four straight weekly increases, and the last one was the steepest in a month.
Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, 2026, up from 6.95% the week before. A year earlier it was 6.30%. The four-week run began at 6.66%, so the cumulative move is 37 basis points. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point.
Different publishers measure different things. The MBA’s weekly survey, released September 23, 2026, put its 30-year contract rate at 7.12%, up from 6.97%. Mortgage News Daily’s index read 7.43% on September 25, 2026. Freddie Mac’s number is a weekly average built on a specific conventional purchase profile. Mortgage News Daily’s is a daily index. None of them is a quote, and I would not average them.
Why the climb? Two forces. First, the Fed. In its implementation note of September 16, 2026, the Federal Reserve set the funds rate target range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent. That is a quarter-point increase from the range held at the June meeting. CNBC reported a 12-0 vote and called it the first hike in more than three years.
Second, and bigger for mortgages, is the 10-year Treasury yield. WRE News, citing Treasury data, reported that the yield crossed 5% on September 14 for the first time since October 2023. I’d treat that figure as trade-press reporting until you check Treasury’s own numbers. The direction is not in doubt. Mortgage pricing follows the long end of the curve, not the Fed’s overnight rate.
Buyers feel it in applications. The MBA reported that purchase applications, unadjusted, were 11% lower than a year earlier. Refinance applications were 62% lower. Rate-driven refinancing has gone quiet.
What does this mean for homeowners with equity?
It means your buyer is different from the one you imagined. That buyer is comparing your house to more listings, and to a builder’s incentive package. And the monthly budget is tighter than it was a year ago.
Think about what a full point does. If a buyer’s rate moves from 6% to 7%, the same purchase price costs meaningfully more each month. Rates on this year’s path have moved by that kind of margin. The buyer feels the monthly figure, not your list price. So a price that felt right in April can look stretched in October without your house changing at all.
Now the other side. Your equity is real. NAR’s median price is still up year over year, so an owner who bought years ago is likely sitting on a large gain. This is not a crash story. It is a leverage story. Your price still reflects the gain. The negotiation just tilts toward the buyer.
Here is the part sellers miss. Price cuts and concessions show up long before the national median moves. When you read that the median is up 1.6%, that does not mean your listing gets the median treatment. Your house competes with the ones on the same streets and in the same price bracket. Those are the listings that get cut first.
There’s also a group that decides not to sell at all. ICE’s September 2026 Mortgage Monitor, found nearly 548,000 homeowners tapped a combined $54 billion in equity in the second quarter. That is the most borrowers to tap equity in a quarter, and the second-largest withdrawal volume in a quarter since 2022. Some owners looked at today’s market and chose to borrow against the house instead of listing it.
Tappable equity is not spendable cash, though. Eligibility review depends on the borrower and the property, subject to lender guidelines. I’ll come back to that below.
Should you wait for spring?
Probably not, if you were going to sell anyway. The calendar argument is real but weaker than the rate argument.
Realtor.com’s chief economist described the current moment as higher mortgage rates meeting the point in the year when activity typically slows. That is the seasonal cool-down, and it is real. But it is not the main story. The main story is that supply is rising and buyers are negotiating, and those forces do not reset on March 1.
Waiting for spring assumes rates fall by then. The evidence in the brief points the other way. Per Advisor Perspectives on September 16, the market was pricing another quarter-point hike in December, with more into 2027. CNBC reported that the Fed’s updated projections pointed to the possibility of another increase this year. Reuters tied the rise in rates to the war in the Middle East. Nobody can say whether a 5% 10-year yield is a ceiling.
That is analysis, not a forecast. I can’t tell you where rates go. I can tell you that “wait for lower rates” was the plan of a lot of sellers a year ago, and inventory grew anyway. More sellers waiting means more listings arriving together in spring.
One more point. Delistings, meaning homes pulled off the market, ran 12.6% below last year’s pace this summer. Redfin earlier described near-record delistings. Different months and different methods, so I would not read a trend into either. But it tells me sellers this year are more willing to cut price than pull the sign. If your neighbor cuts, you compete with the cut price.
My take
After eighteen years in lending, I’ve learned to distrust any rule that starts with “always list in.” Rules like that are built on a market that no longer exists.
My read is that this fall rewards the seller who prices to the buyer’s budget, not to a past sale on the block. Neighbors’ 2025 sales are old news. Those buyers bought at a rate roughly 70 basis points lower, going by Freddie Mac’s year-over-year comparison of 6.30% then against 7.03% now. That gap is real money for a buyer, and it does not go away because the comps look good.
Here’s my honest toss-up. Is it better to price at the level you want and negotiate down? Or price at the level you expect to get and hold firm? I lean toward the second in this market. Buyers have twenty other homes to look at. The first two weeks of a listing matter most, and an overpriced home spends them building a price-cut history that everyone can see.
I’m also skeptical of the “the market is broken” story. It isn’t. Sales are near 4 million a year. NAR says year-to-date sales are still up 1.6%. Homes are selling. They’re selling to buyers who feel they got a fair deal. That’s how a market works when supply is finally rising.
And builders? They are the wild card. A builder who can buy down a buyer’s rate has a tool you don’t have unless you offer a concession. Census flagged parts of its data as within the margin of error, so don’t overread it. But Inman’s builder survey is hard to argue with: two out of three builders are using incentives. Your listing is competing with a package, not a price tag. Not ideal.
What I’d do now
Here is what I tell homeowners with equity. It’s practical, not advice to sell or buy any particular property.
1. Price for the payment. Ask what a buyer’s monthly budget can carry today, then work back to a price. Your agent can walk you through that. A price that leaves the buyer stretched will sit.
2. Compare with active listings, not only sold homes. Sold prices tell you what buyers paid under earlier conditions. Active listings tell you who you’re up against right now. About one in five listings nationally has a price cut. Check how many on your street do.
3. Think concessions before cuts. A concession can be a seller credit toward closing costs or toward a buyer’s rate buydown. A buydown lowers the buyer’s rate for a set period or for the life of the loan, depending on how it is structured. For a payment-sensitive buyer, help with the monthly cost can land better than the same money off the price. Ask your agent to model both. The best choice depends on your local market and the buyer’s loan.
4. Understand the buyer’s rate lock. A rate lock holds a rate for a set period while a buyer’s loan is processed. If a buyer’s lock is about to expire or the market is rising, the terms of your contract matter. Talk with your agent about timelines and extensions. A buyer who locked before this month’s climb is in a better position than one who floated. If you’re a buyer as well as a seller, my rule is simple: if you like the deal, lock it. Floating in a market that has risen four weeks straight is a gamble.
5. Keep the hold-or-rent option on the table. Some owners decide the math on selling doesn’t work and keep the house as a rental. Rental loans qualify primarily on the property’s income rather than personal income, subject to lender guidelines. If you’re weighing that, Lendmire’s DSCR loans guide explains how it works.
6. If you’re borrowing against equity, read the terms. Equity is not spendable cash. Your ability to tap it depends on the property, your credit profile and lender guidelines. Our loan options page carries the current guidelines and is the place to start. I don’t state program figures in a column like this because they change.
7. Have a repricing plan before you list. Decide in advance what would make you cut price and when. Showing traffic without offers is a price message. Silence is a bigger one. It is easier to make that call with a plan than with a stack of buyer feedback and a sinking feeling.
The next NAR release is October 13, 2026, covering September sales. Watch inventory and months of supply. If supply keeps climbing, the leverage stays with buyers.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file. Reach us at 828-256-2183 or request a quote.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is fall a bad time to sell a house?
No, but it is a different time. Realtor.com’s chief economist describes a seasonal slowdown as higher rates meet the time of year when activity typically cools. Serious buyers are still active. Pending sales fell year over year in August, so expect fewer showings and more selective buyers. Price accordingly.
Are home prices falling nationally?
Not yet, according to the latest national data. NAR reported that the median existing-home price was still higher than a year earlier as of September 10, 2026. What has changed is the pressure around the median. About one in five listings carries a price cut, and the share of buyers getting concessions is at its highest for an August since 2020. Local markets differ, so check your own street.
Should I wait for mortgage rates to fall before I list?
That is a bet, and the evidence doesn’t favor it. Freddie Mac’s rate rose four straight weeks through September 24, 2026. The Fed raised its target range on September 16, and market pricing pointed toward another hike. If rates do fall, more buyers may return, but so will more sellers who waited. I can’t forecast the path.
What is the difference between a price cut and a seller concession?
A price cut lowers the number on the contract. A concession is a credit, often toward the buyer’s closing costs or a rate buydown, and it leaves the price where it is. Concessions can help a buyer’s monthly budget without changing the recorded sale price. Which is better depends on your comps and the buyer’s loan, so ask your agent to model both.
Can I borrow against my equity instead of selling?
It is sometimes possible. Homeowners did so in large numbers in the second quarter, per ICE’s September 2026 Mortgage Monitor. But qualifying depends on the borrower, the property and lender guidelines, and rates are higher than they were. Our loan options page has the current program details.
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References
1. NAR existing-home sales report, September 10, 2026
3. RISMedia on September 23, 2026
4. Census Bureau new residential sales
5. Inman on new-home sales and builder incentives
6. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
7. Advisor Perspectives on the Fed decision
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
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Compliance and disclosures. Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) is a licensed mortgage broker and is not a direct lender, depository institution, financial advisor, or tax professional. Content in this article is general market analysis and educational information — not financial, legal, or tax advice for any specific situation. Lendmire does not guarantee loan approval; every transaction is subject to underwriting by the funding lender. Mortgage pricing and loan program guidelines are subject to change at any time without notice and vary by borrower characteristics, property type, and state regulations. Lendmire complies with Equal Housing Opportunity. Licensure verification: NMLS Consumer Access.