The Quick Read: As of September 28, 2026, buyers hold more leverage than they have in years, and less room in the monthly budget. NAR’s report on August sales showed supply at the highest level in over ten years. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey has climbed four straight weeks. My read: negotiating skill is worth more now than at any point since 2019.
Here is the paradox. More homes are for sale. Builders are cutting prices. Yet the cost of money is moving the wrong way. Leverage on price and terms is real. Leverage on payment is not.
Key Takeaways
- Existing-home sales slipped in August while months of supply rose to 4.9, per NAR’s report of September 10, 2026.
- Thirty-eight percent of builders cut prices in September, per NAHB’s release of September 16, 2026.
- Freddie Mac’s 30-year average has risen four straight weeks, through the survey of September 24, 2026.
- Your leverage shows up in repairs, credits and builder incentives more than in headline prices.
- An agent who negotiates those pieces earns more of their keep in this market. That is my view, not a measured result.
What Changed: The Dated Facts
Supply is at a decade high, and sales are soft. NAR reported on September 10, 2026 that August existing-home sales fell 2.0% from July, to 3.98 million at an annual pace. That is 1.2% below a year earlier. Inventory reached 1.62 million homes, up 5.9% from August 2025. Supply stood at 4.9 months, up from 4.6 in July and 4.6 a year ago.
NAR’s chief economist called that the highest level in over ten years. He also said the ample supply gives buyers better opportunities to negotiate. It was the first time sales dipped below 4.0 million since June 2025. It was also the first time since November 2019 that inventory topped 1.6 million.
Rates keep climbing. Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, 2026, up from 6.95% the week before. A year earlier it averaged 6.30%. Freddie’s release for August 20 had the average at 6.65%. That is a rise of 38 basis points in five weeks. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point.
The steps were 6.71% on September 3, 6.76% on September 10 and 6.95% on September 17. Buyers felt the September 17 jump most: 19 basis points in one week.
The MBA’s weekly survey tells the same story on a different measure. For the week ending September 18, the MBA’s 30-year conforming contract rate rose to 7.12% from 6.97%. Purchase applications were 11% lower than a year earlier on an unadjusted basis. The Refinance Index was 62% lower.
Which number is “the rate”? All of them, and none. They measure different things. Freddie’s survey covers conforming purchase loans with 20% down and excellent credit, per its release. The MBA reports a contract figure drawn from applications. Mortgage News Daily runs a daily index of top-tier 30-year fixed loans, which reached its highest level in well over a year at the end of September 2026. If you compare two quotes, make sure they come from the same day and the same method. Final terms depend on lender guidelines, property type, leverage, and the borrower’s complete credit picture.
The Fed moved. The Federal Reserve’s implementation note of September 16, 2026 put the federal funds target range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent. In June the range was 3-1/2 to 3-3/4. CNBC reported a 12-0 vote for a 25-basis-point hike, the first in more than three years.
Don’t read too much into that. The Fed does not set mortgage rates. Mortgage News Daily’s chief operating officer said 7% was first broken on September 10, before the Fed met, as CNBC reported on September 24. Bond yields and inflation worries did most of the work. I could not pull an exact 10-year Treasury figure from FRED for this column. Secondary reporting has it above 5%, the highest since 2007.
Builders are paying to move homes. The NAHB index of September 16, 2026 showed builder confidence down three points, to 32. Thirty-eight percent of builders cut prices in September, up from 35% in August. The average cut held at 6% for a sixth straight month. Sixty-six percent used sales incentives, up from 63%.
The NAHB chairman said buyer traffic has weakened across much of the country, largely because of rising mortgage rates.
Read that 38% carefully. It is the share of surveyed builders cutting prices. It is not the share of homes discounted. And it is slightly below the 39% a year earlier.
Are Prices Falling? Not Yet.
Prices are not collapsing. NAR’s median existing-home price for August was $429,100, up 1.6% from a year earlier. Leverage shows up somewhere else: in repairs, credits, closing-cost help and builder incentives.
That distinction matters for how you shop. A buyer who fixates on a headline price cut may miss the better deal. Ask for a seller credit. Ask for repairs after the inspection. Ask a builder for an incentive instead of a smaller price cut. Which one is worth more depends on your file and your timeline.
Supply is also not “normal.” Realtor.com’s release says active listings remain about 11% below pre-pandemic levels nationally. National numbers hide wide differences between places. I won’t present any one market as typical.
New construction tells a similar story. Census data put August new-home sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 684,000, with 483,000 new houses for sale, an 8.5-month supply. The monthly gain carries a wide margin of error, so I would not lean on it.
What It Means for Home Buyers
Buyers can negotiate more, but afford less. More listings and longer waits give you time and bargaining power. Rising rates squeeze the monthly budget at the same moment. Both are true, and a buyer who sees only one gets hurt.
Take a plain hypothetical. If a rate moves from 6.65% to 7.03%, that is a difference of 38 basis points. It sounds small. On a large balance held for decades, it is not. The move changes what a buyer’s budget supports before any negotiation starts. That is why price alone is the wrong scoreboard.
Demand is soft, which is what gives you room. Purchase applications ran 11% below last year. Builders report weak traffic. Sellers who priced for last year’s market are meeting buyers who can wait.
Owners face the opposite problem. Refinancing is far weaker, with the index 62% below a year ago. Homeowners sitting on lower rates have little reason to sell or refinance. That is one reason supply could stall if rates keep rising, and the sources I reviewed do not settle it.
Why an Agent Matters More Right Now
A good agent earns the most when the deal has moving parts. This is my opinion. None of the sources I reviewed measures what an agent saves a buyer. They document negotiating room. They do not measure who captures it.
In a bidding-war market, the agent’s job was to get you in the door. In this market the door is open. The work shifts to what happens next.
- Comparing options. More inventory means more homes to weigh, and some are sitting for a reason.
- Reading a price history. A cut listing tells you something. So does a relisting.
- Negotiating repairs. After the inspection, the ask matters as much as the offer.
- Working builder incentives. With 66% of builders using them, the terms on new construction are open to negotiation. Builder sales staff work for the builder. An agent works for you.
- Structuring contingencies. When you have leverage, you do not need to give up protections to win.
I lean toward saying the agent’s value is highest on new construction and on homes that have sat. Those are where the flexibility lives. On a fresh listing in a tight pocket, the case is weaker, though a buyer’s agent still handles the paperwork and the negotiation. It is a close call, and I would not tell anyone it is a rule.
The other half is the money. An agent negotiates the house. A mortgage broker helps you compare financing. The two jobs fit together, and rates this volatile make the second job matter more.
What I’d Do Now
Lock the financing side down first. This is general guidance, not advice to buy or sell any particular home.
1. Get preapproved and compare. A rate lock is an agreement that holds a quoted rate for a set period while your loan moves forward. If you like the terms and you have a contract, lock. Rates have risen four straight weeks, and floating is a bet on direction that nobody wins every time.
2. Compare quotes from the same day. Quotes gathered a week apart are not comparable when the market moves 19 basis points in a week.
3. Ask for concessions before price. A seller credit or a repair can be worth more than a small price cut. Decide which matters to your budget.
4. Look at your loan options early. Different programs qualify on different things, and the page carries the current guidelines, subject to lender guidelines. I state no figures here on purpose.
5. Don’t wait for a crash. Prices are still up on the year, and rates are the bigger swing factor. Waiting is a bet on two things at once.
6. Keep the rent-versus-buy option honest. Some readers may be better off renting a while. I wrote about when renting makes you a better real estate investor, and the same logic applies to timing a first purchase.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file.
What Could Change
Three open questions. First, will the Fed hike again? One outlet says markets price one more 25-basis-point hike in December. Nobody knows. Second, will supply keep building? Weekly listing growth has accelerated, but higher rates could lock in more owners. Third, will the next data confirm the dip? NAR’s September report is due October 13. I would watch sales and months of supply together.
I also found no dated, primary-source data on self-employed or bank-statement borrowers in this window. I would rather say so than guess.
For the end-to-end picture of how these loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Do I need a real estate agent if there are more homes to choose from?
More homes means more comparison work, more negotiation and more paperwork, so I would say yes for most buyers. Builders are using incentives at a 66% rate, and someone should be negotiating those for you. No source I reviewed measures an agent’s dollar value, so treat this as my view.
Why does the mortgage rate I see online differ from Freddie Mac’s number?
Different publishers measure different things. Freddie Mac reported 7.03% for the week of September 24. The MBA reported a 7.12% contract rate for the week ending September 18. Mortgage News Daily’s index closed at 7.50% on September 28. Always note the source, the date and the loan type.
Did the Fed’s September hike cause mortgage rates to jump?
Only partly. Mortgage News Daily said 7% was first broken on September 10, before the Fed’s September 16 decision. Bond yields and inflation concerns moved rates too, per MBA commentary. The Fed sets a short-term target. Mortgage rates follow the bond market.
About Lendmire
Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) is a non-QM mortgage brokerage arranging DSCR investor loans in 41 markets — 40 states plus Washington, D.C. — and consumer mortgage programs, including bank statement, HELOC and down payment assistance options, in 16 states through wholesale lenders. Lendmire is the broker, never the lender; every file is underwritten by the lender under its own guidelines. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
1. NAR: August existing-home sales
2. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
3. MBA Weekly Applications Survey, September 23, 2026
4. Federal Reserve implementation note, September 16, 2026
5. CNBC: Fed rate decision, September 16, 2026
6. NAHB builder sentiment release, September 16, 2026
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: Choosing the Right Real Estate Agent · How to save for a down payment · Navigating Home Buying in the Winter Market: Advantages & Strategies
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
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Legal disclosures. Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) is a state-licensed mortgage brokerage that arranges financing through wholesale lender relationships. Lendmire is not a direct lender, depository institution, or registered financial advisor. The discussion above is general informational content about real estate financing — it is not financial, legal, or tax advice, and readers should consult licensed professionals for guidance on their individual circumstances. Loan inquiries are subject to lender underwriting; this article does not represent a commitment to lend. Loan terms, rates, and qualification standards vary by borrower, property, and state, and are subject to change at any time. Equal Housing Opportunity. NMLS Consumer Access: nmlsconsumeraccess.org.