The Quick Read: As of September 28, 2026, buyers hold more leverage than they have in years, and the rate move is taking some of it back. Resale supply is at a level NAR’s chief economist calls the highest in over ten years, and builders are cutting prices and offering incentives. Mortgage rates just crossed 7% in Freddie Mac’s survey. So the agent you hire matters more, and the interview should test one skill above the rest: who can actually negotiate price, credits and builder incentives.
Key Takeaways
- NAR’s report on August existing-home sales, released September 10, 2026, showed supply at 4.9 months. That is the highest in over ten years.
- Freddie Mac’s survey for the week of September 24, 2026 put the 30-year fixed at 7.03%. That is the first reading above 7% in about 20 months.
- Builders lean on incentives more than sticker cuts. NAHB’s September survey shows 66% using incentives and 38% cutting prices.
- Leverage is real but uneven. Ask every agent you interview for proof of negotiated results, not a pitch about “the market.”
- Get your financing picture in order before you interview, so the agent negotiates against your real budget.
What Changed This Month
The short version: more homes, fewer sales, higher rates.
Start with resale. NAR reported on September 10 that existing-home sales fell 2.0% in August to a 3.98 million annual pace. That is the first reading under 4.0 million since June 2025. Inventory reached 1.62 million units, up 5.9% from a year earlier. It is the first time above 1.6 million since November 2019.
Months of supply is the number I’d watch. It tells you how long the current stock would last at the current sales pace. NAR put it at 4.9 months, up from 4.6 in July and 4.6 a year ago. Yun called it the highest in over ten years and said it gives buyers better opportunities to negotiate. Note his wording. “Over ten years” is not “all-time.”
The median existing-home price was $429,100, up 1.6% from a year earlier, per the same NAR report. Prices are not falling. They are just not running away.
Listings tell a similar story from another angle. Realtor.com’s August housing report, released September 2, showed the national median list price at $424,500, down 1.3% from a year earlier. About 20.4% of active listings carried a price cut. Delistings ran 12.6% below last year’s pace, which Realtor.com reads as sellers being more patient than in 2025.
New construction is where the discounting shows most. NAHB’s September builder survey found 38% of builders cut prices, up from 35% in August. The average cut was 6% for a sixth straight month. Some 66% used incentives, up from 63% in August. The sentiment index fell 3 points to 32, its lowest since September 2025.
Then the rate side. Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, 2026, up from 6.95% the prior week. A year earlier it was 6.30%. That is a move of 73 basis points in twelve months. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point.
NPR reported it was the first weekly reading above 7% since January 2025. Realtor.com’s Anthony Smith told Fox Business the prior week’s move was a 19 basis point jump, the largest one-week move since April 2025.
The Fed added pressure. On September 16, the FOMC voted 12–0 to raise its target range by a quarter point, to 3¾–4%. The Fed does not set mortgage rates directly. They track longer-term yields. But a rate hike does not help.
One more data point. The MBA’s weekly survey for the week ending September 18 showed purchase applications down 11% from a year earlier, unadjusted. The same survey put its 30-year contract rate at 7.12%, up from 6.97%. The MBA and Freddie Mac measure different things, so the two levels differ. The direction is the same. Terms vary by lender guidelines, property type, leverage, credit profile, and full file review.
What Does It Mean for Home Buyers?
It means you can ask for more, and the price of money is pushing the other way.
Think of leverage as a tug of war. More inventory and softer builder sentiment pull toward the buyer. A higher rate pulls toward the seller, because the same budget buys less house. Both forces are real. Which one wins depends on the home, the builder and the agent across the table.
Don’t read too much into any one headline. Sales are down just 1.2% from a year ago, and up 1.6% year to date. This is not a frozen market. It is a slower, choosier one. Inman’s coverage of the pending-sales data described buyers as more selective, which fits.
Also keep the measures straight. NAR’s median sale price is up 1.6% year over year. Realtor.com’s median list price is down 1.3%. They measure different things, sold homes versus asking prices, so they can move in opposite directions without contradicting each other.
Builder discounts need the same care. The 6% average cut has held for six months, and incentives are more common than cuts. HousingWire reports builders leaning on rate buydowns and closing-cost help instead of lowering the sticker price. Those incentives can be temporary and conditional. A bigger headline discount is not automatically a cheaper home.
That is why the agent question matters now. In a market where sellers held firm for years, a buyer’s agent mostly needed to get you in the door. Now the job is different. Someone has to know which sellers will move, which credits are realistic, and how a builder’s incentive package really works.
How Do You Interview an Agent in This Market?
Run it like a test, not a chat. Bring the same five scenarios to every candidate and compare answers side by side.
I’ll be plain: the research brief gives me the market data, not a study of agent performance. These questions are my own framework. Treat them as mine.
1. “Walk me through your last three negotiations where the buyer got something beyond a lower price.” You want specifics. Credits, repairs, a longer decision window, a seller paying part of the buyer’s costs. Vague talk about “strong offers” tells you little. A good agent names the lever and the outcome.
2. “What do you look at to decide whether a seller will move on price?” Good answers mention time on market, prior price cuts, whether the listing was withdrawn and relisted, and the seller’s situation. Weak answers say “we’ll just offer low and see.”
3. “How do builder incentives work, and what do you check before I take one?” An agent who has handled new construction will talk about conditions. Is the incentive tied to the builder’s preferred financing? Does it expire? Is it cash at closing, or a rate buydown that only lasts a set period? Watch for someone who has never read an incentive agreement.
4. “What do you tell buyers about rates right now?” This one is a trap, and a useful one. A sound agent says they are not a rate forecaster. They should say they will send you to a loan professional and build your offer around a budget you have confirmed. Be wary of anyone predicting where rates go next. Even the professionals disagree. Advisor Perspectives noted markets were pricing one more hike in December. Others point to oil and inflation. Nobody has a settled answer.
5. “When would you tell me to walk away?” The best agents have a real answer. An agent who cannot name a deal they would pass on will not protect you from a bad one.
Add three practical asks. First, request a few recent transactions in your price range and area, and call the buyers. Second, ask how many clients the agent is working with now, and who answers the phone when they are busy. Third, ask how they are paid and what you will sign. Get that in writing before you commit.
Score each candidate the same way. A simple 1-to-5 on negotiation evidence, new-construction knowledge, local detail, communication and honesty will do. Weight negotiation evidence most heavily. That is the skill the market is asking for.
My Take
My read: this is a good market to be a prepared buyer and a poor one to be a hopeful one.
I’ve spent eighteen years in lending. In that time I have seen buyers make the same mistake after every rate move. They fix on the number, wait for a reversal, and skip the part they can control. You can’t control rates. You can control how you negotiate, what you choose to buy and who sits beside you.
I also think the “7% is a magic line” story is overdone. NPR noted the mark carries no literal significance beyond psychology. A buyer who was comfortable at 6.95% is not a different buyer at 7.03%. The squeeze is gradual. It is the pile-up of eight basis points here and nineteen there that hurts, and that is why the direction matters more than the headline.
Here is where I’m genuinely torn. Yun sees leverage for buyers. Realtor.com’s data shows sellers staying patient and delisting less, which suggests they are not desperate. Both can be true at once. My guess is leverage is real but local, strongest on stale listings and new construction, weakest on clean, well-priced homes. I can’t prove that from the national data. It’s an opinion, and it is why I’d interview for local negotiation evidence over national talking points.
One more view. Builder incentives are the piece I’d study hardest. They are a tool for the builder’s margin, not your benefit, and HousingWire reported one builder’s margin slipping from 23.2% to 17.6%. A builder under that pressure will pay to move homes. But they will pay in the form that protects their sticker prices. Your agent should know that and push for the version that helps you most.
What I’d Do Now
This is general education, not advice to buy or sell anything. Here is the order I would work in.
Get your financing picture first. An agent can’t negotiate against a budget you haven’t confirmed. Talk to a loan professional before you tour, so the agent knows your real ceiling. If you are an investor, or self-employed, it helps to know which loan options fit how you earn. Some programs qualify a file on the property’s cash flow and others on bank deposits, subject to lender guidelines. The linked page carries the current guidelines, and I’m not going to paste figures here.
Understand how a rate lock works. A lock is an agreement to hold a quoted rate for a set period while your purchase moves forward. If the market is rising and you like the terms, lock. Floating means you are betting on a drop, and with rates climbing for several weeks, that bet has been costly. Also, compare quotes only when they were gathered on the same day. A quote from last Tuesday and one from this Friday are not the same product.
Interview two or three agents, not ten. More than that and you’ll blur the answers. Use the same questions. Write down the answers. Decide after a night’s sleep.
Ask for a new-construction and resale view. If you are open to both, hire someone who can work both. NAHB and NAR show leverage on each side. A buyer who looks at only one is leaving options on the table.
Ask about credits before price. In a rate-sensitive market, a seller credit or builder concession can help more than a small price cut, because it targets costs at closing. Have your agent explain which is worth more on your specific home and why.
If you own a home with equity, think before refinancing. MCT, a trading firm, argues in its September 28 update that the lock-in effect has strengthened. That means owners with low-rate first mortgages have little reason to refinance near 7%, so demand for second liens and credit lines is favored. That is one firm’s commentary, not a dataset. But it fits the math. If you are weighing it, here is my piece on using a HELOC to invest in real estate.
Watch the next few data points. The next Freddie Mac survey, the next NAR report and NAHB’s October reading will show whether leverage is widening or shrinking. Until then, treat this month’s numbers as a snapshot, not a trend.
Where I Can Help
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file. I’m a mortgage broker, so the job is arranging and comparing options with the lenders we work with. You can reach the team at 828-256-2183 or request a quote when you’re ready.
For the end-to-end picture of how these loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Should I interview more than one agent even when the market slows?
Yes, and a slower market makes it more useful. Two or three interviews with identical questions show you who has negotiation evidence and who has a script. Keep the comparison simple, and ask each for recent transactions in your price range you can verify.
Does a higher inventory mean home prices are falling?
Not from the data in hand. NAR’s median sale price for August was $429,100, up 1.6% from a year earlier, even as supply reached 4.9 months. Median price and months of supply measure different things, so both can be accurate at once.
Are builder incentives better than a price cut?
It depends on the terms. NAHB’s September survey shows 66% of builders using incentives and 38% cutting prices, and the average cut has held steady at 6%. Incentives can be temporary or tied to conditions. Have your agent read the fine print before you compare a credit against a lower sticker price.
Why do different sources show different mortgage rates?
They measure different things. Freddie Mac reports a weekly average from its survey, while the MBA reports a figure drawn from loan applications. Daily indexes track yet another slice. Compare the direction across sources, and compare quotes only when they were gathered on the same day.
About Lendmire
Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) is a non-QM mortgage brokerage arranging DSCR investor loans in 41 markets — 40 states plus Washington, D.C. — and consumer mortgage programs, including bank statement, HELOC and down payment assistance options, in 16 states through wholesale lenders. Lendmire is the broker, never the lender; every file is underwritten by the lender under its own guidelines. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
1. NAR existing-home sales report for August 2026
3. NAHB builder sentiment, September 2026
4. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
5. NPR on the 7% mortgage rate reading
6. Federal Reserve FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
7. MBA Weekly Applications Survey, September 23, 2026
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: Choosing A Real Estate Agent In A September Market Tilting To Buyers · September 2026: Buyers Need A Real Estate Agent As Supply Grows, Rates Climb · Eco-friendly Home Features Worth Negotiating As Builders Push September Incentives
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
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Disclosures. The information presented in this article is general market commentary, not financial, legal, or tax advice. Lendmire is a mortgage brokerage (NMLS# 2371349) — not a direct lender or depository institution — and loan placement is subject to lender underwriting. Nothing in this content represents a commitment to lend. Loan terms, pricing, and program availability vary based on borrower qualifications, property characteristics, and state of subject property, and are subject to change at any time. Lendmire complies with Equal Housing Opportunity requirements. Consumer access: nmlsconsumeraccess.org.