The Quick Read: As of September 28, 2026, buyers have more leverage than they’ve had in years, and the cost of money is working against them. Freddie Mac’s survey has the 30-year fixed rising four weeks running. August existing-home sales slipped, supply grew, and builders are cutting prices. My read: negotiate hard on price and terms, then make sure the financing still works at today’s rates.
Key Takeaways
- Freddie Mac’s 30-year average rose four straight weeks, to 7.03% for the week of September 24, 2026, up 37 basis points across the run.
- NAR’s August report, dated September 10, showed sales down 2.0%, inventory at 1.62 million units and supply at 4.9 months.
- Builders are cutting prices and offering incentives, per NAHB’s September 16 survey, yet buyer traffic is not improving.
- Leverage is real but uneven. National supply numbers hide big regional differences.
- Use the leverage on price and terms. Don’t spend it on a deal that only works if rates fall.
What changed
Rates rose for a fourth week. Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, 2026, up from 6.95% the week before. The sequence in the company’s releases runs 6.66%, 6.71%, 6.76%, 6.95%, then 7.03%. That is 37 basis points in four weeks, and the biggest single jump was 19 basis points in the week of September 17. A year ago the same survey averaged 6.30%.
Freddie’s number lags. It averages several days of rates. Mortgage News Daily’s index closed September 28 at 7.50%, its first reading that high since April 30, 2024. The same index had broken back above 7% on September 10, after inflation reports raised the odds of a Fed hike. MND called a half-point rise in two weeks extraordinarily uncommon.
Then the Fed hiked. On September 16, the FOMC voted 12–0 to raise the target range by a quarter point, to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. It kept the range unchanged in July. The move did not surprise anyone. The July minutes show the market already priced a September hike, and MND tied the jump above 7% to inflation data, not to the meeting.
Demand is responding. A published survey for the week ending September 18 showed total applications down 1.5%. The MBA release, dated September 23, put the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index down 1%, and the unadjusted index sat 11% below a year earlier. Refinance applications were 62% below a year ago. Final terms depend on lender guidelines, property type, leverage, and the borrower’s complete credit picture.
On the other side of the table, supply is building. NAR’s report on August existing-home sales, dated September 10, 2026, showed:
- Sales down 2.0% from July, and 1.2% from a year earlier.
- A seasonally adjusted annual pace of 3.98 million, the first reading under 4.0 million since June 2025.
- Inventory of 1.62 million units, up 5.9% from August 2025, the first time above 1.6 million since November 2019.
- Supply of 4.9 months, up from 4.6 in July and a year earlier.
- A median price of $429,100, up 1.6% from a year ago.
NAR’s chief economist said the supply level gives buyers better opportunities to negotiate. I agree with that much.
Builders are the loudest sellers. NAHB’s September index fell three points to 32, and its September 16 release tied the drop to higher rates and costs. According to detail from that survey, 38% of builders cut prices, the average cut held at 6%, and 66% used sales incentives. Buyer traffic sits at 23 on NAHB’s index. Discounts are not unlocking demand.
What does this mean for real estate investors?
Investors get the same leverage and a tougher formula. A rental purchase lives on the relationship between rent and the cost of carrying the loan. Rates went up 37 basis points in four weeks. Rents did not. The gap between them narrowed.
Here’s a plain hypothetical. If a borrower’s rate moves from 6.5% to 7.5%, that’s a full point. It doesn’t sound like much until you run it against a property that was already thin. The coverage number, meaning rent divided by the full monthly debt cost, drops. Some deals that cleared in the summer won’t clear now.
That’s where price becomes the tool. A seller who cuts the price is doing the same job as a rate reduction. A lower price shrinks the loan, and a smaller loan carries an easier coverage number. So the leverage I described above isn’t a nice extra for investors. It’s how a deal gets back to working.
The market for this kind of loan is growing. Optimal Blue data reported in September show investor and DSCR loans at 35% of non-QM production in August 2026, against 28% a year earlier and 22% in August 2022. A DSCR loan is reviewed for the borrower mainly on the property’s rental income rather than personal income documents, subject to lender guidelines. You’ll find the current guidelines on the page for our DSCR loan programs. I state no figures here because the page is the source of truth.
Growth has a cost. The same reporting notes that Cotality’s fraud risk indicators are firing on 1 in 44 investment-property applications. Cotality doesn’t measure confirmed fraud, and the data covers both DSCR and conventional investor loans. Still, expect careful review of investor files. Clean documents matter more when the market is jittery.
One caution on numbers. Freddie’s 7.03%, the MBA’s 7.12% contract rate and MND’s 7.50% all describe the same week, and they measure different things. Freddie’s survey covers conventional conforming loans for borrowers with strong credit and a large down payment. None of the three measures non-QM or DSCR pricing. Don’t take a headline figure and assume it applies to your file.
My take
Buyers are misreading this market in two directions.
The first mistake is the lowball. Supply of 4.9 months is above where it was, but it’s still a moderate reading. That’s my framing, not NAR’s. A seller with a fresh, well-priced listing has no reason to fold. A seller whose home has sat through the summer and taken a couple of price cuts does. Realtor.com’s August report, dated September 2, shows 20.4% of active listings carried a price reduction. That leaves four in five that haven’t.
The second mistake is waiting. Inventory rising while rates rise is an awkward pairing. It tempts people to sit out and hope rates drop. Maybe they will. The Fed’s own projections point to a year-end 2026 range of 4.00% to 4.25%, and markets have priced another quarter-point hike. Nobody is forecasting relief in the next month. Buying at a good price and refinancing later, if rates fall, is a strategy. Waiting for a rate drop and a price drop together is a hope.
Two datapoints look contradictory and aren’t. NAR’s median price is up 1.6% from a year ago, while Realtor.com’s median list price is down 1.3%. One measures closed sales. The other measures asking prices. Inventory up doesn’t mean prices are falling. It means the asking side is softer than the closing side, and that gap is where a buyer can work.
Builders complicate things. Census data show new-home sales in August at 684,000 annualized, up 6.4% from July, with margins of error that are wide. So the builder-weakness story runs only one way in the sentiment survey. Read the two together. Sentiment is poor and sales are noisy.
Honestly, this one’s a toss-up on timing. The leverage argues for moving now. The rate trend argues for caution. My answer is to move only on a deal that would still make sense if rates stayed where they are for a year.
What I’d do now
Price the deal at today’s cost of money. Use a current rate benchmark from a dated source, or a hypothetical a full point higher, and see if the purchase still works. If it works only at last summer’s rates, it doesn’t work.
Read the listing before you read the market. National supply doesn’t buy you anything on a single house. Look at how long it has sat, how many times the price has moved, and whether the seller is a builder. Realtor.com’s regional split shows the gap: Midwest active listings were up 10.5% in August, and the South’s up only 1.1%. Your leverage depends on where you shop.
Ask for more than price. Builders are already using rate buydowns and closing-cost help. Resale sellers can offer credits, repairs or flexible timing. A concession that reduces your cash need can be worth more than a small price cut. Ask what the seller values, then trade for it.
Keep your protections. In a market with more supply, you don’t need to waive an inspection or a financing contingency to win. Leverage is the reason to keep them.
Lock when the numbers work. A rate lock holds a quoted rate for a set period, and floating means you leave it open and take the market as it moves. With four weekly increases and a Fed that just hiked, I don’t like floating on a deal that’s already tight. If you like the deal and the math works, lock it. Also, quotes gathered on different days aren’t comparable. A quote from two weeks ago describes a market that’s gone.
Get your financing numbers before you offer. For investors, that means comparing DSCR structures side by side before you write the number, not after. That’s the part of the job a broker does: arrange and compare options across the lenders we work with, and lay out how each fits the file. Lenders review and approve, subject to their guidelines.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file. Call 828-256-2183 or request a quote.
Refinancing is a different conversation right now. Refi applications are at their slowest pace since February 2025, per MND’s summary of the MBA data. Owners with older, cheaper loans have no reason to move, which limits supply. That’s my inference, not a sourced number. But it helps explain why inventory is building slowly, not in a flood.
For the end-to-end picture of how these loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Should I wait for rates to come down before making an offer?
Only if the deal fails at today’s rates. Freddie Mac’s survey rose four straight weeks through September 24, 2026, and the Fed hiked on September 16. Nobody can time the turn. Buy a property whose numbers hold at current rates, and treat any later drop as a bonus you can refinance into.
How much room is there to negotiate right now?
More than in the last few years, but it varies by listing. NAR’s August report showed 4.9 months of supply and said buyers have better chances to negotiate. Realtor.com’s report found 20.4% of listings with price cuts. Stale listings and builder inventory give the most room. Fresh, well-priced homes give the least.
Does the Freddie Mac rate tell me what an investor will pay?
No. Investor and DSCR loans are priced separately, and terms vary by lender, borrower and property. Use the survey as a direction signal, not a quote.
Are builder incentives a better deal than a resale price cut?
It depends on the deal. NAHB’s September survey found 66% of builders using incentives and 38% cutting prices. Buydowns and closing-cost help can lower your carrying cost. But compare the total cost of each offer, and get any builder incentive in writing before you count on it.
What should I watch before the next report?
The MBA’s weekly applications survey is due September 30, and NAR’s September existing-home sales report is due October 13. The September rate jump will show up in contracts signed now. Watch whether purchase applications keep sliding and whether supply keeps climbing.
About Lendmire
Lendmire, NMLS# 2371349, is a mortgage broker with two platforms: DSCR investor lending across 41 markets, including Washington, D.C., and consumer mortgage programs in 16 states, all arranged through wholesale lending partners. This column is written by Lendmire’s founder and reflects the market as of its publication date; program terms and availability are set by the lender on each file. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
Get Started
Ready to find the right loan for you?
In about 30 seconds you can review financing options available for your home or investment property. No commitment required.
Informational only. Not a Loan Estimate, approval, or commitment to lend. Program availability and eligibility are subject to lender guidelines, credit approval, property review, and underwriting.
References
1. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
2. Federal Reserve FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
3. MBA Weekly Applications Survey, September 23, 2026
4. NAR August existing-home sales report
5. NAHB builder sentiment release, September 16, 2026
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: How Long Does It Take to Buy a Home? · What to Include in a Real Estate Listing · What is a Property Sales Report?
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
- Mortgage Loan Originator · NMLS# 1129696 · Verify on NMLS Consumer Access
- North Carolina Real Estate Broker · License# 343312 · Verify on NCREC
- North Carolina Insurance Producer · License# 19053198 · Property, Casualty, Life, Health · Verify on NAIC SBS
- Lendmire LLC · Firm NMLS# 2371349 · Verify firm licensure
Required disclosures. Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) operates as a licensed mortgage broker, not a direct lender or depository. The discussion in this article is general in nature and should not be relied upon as financial, legal, or tax advice — every investment scenario is unique and should be reviewed by a qualified professional. Any loan inquiry is subject to lender underwriting, and this article is not a commitment to lend or a guarantee of approval. Mortgage rates, loan terms, and program guidelines vary by borrower, property, and state, and may change without notice. Equal Housing Opportunity. Verify licensure at NMLS Consumer Access.