The Quick Read: As of September 28, 2026, a pre-qualification letter issued a month ago may overstate what you can afford. Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, after four straight weekly increases. Sellers are giving ground at the same time, because inventory is the deepest in years. Refresh the letter before you write the offer.
Here is the short version of a column that runs a little longer. Rates moved, the Fed moved, and the housing data moved in the other direction. Buyers now have leverage and less borrowing power at once. That mix rewards the buyer who knows the current number.
Key Takeaways
- Freddie Mac’s 30-year average rose four weeks in a row, from 6.66% to 7.03%. That is up 37 basis points, by my arithmetic from its published figures.
- The Fed raised its target range by a quarter point on September 16. It was the first hike since 2023.
- NAR’s report on September 10 showed inventory at 1.62 million units and 4.9 months of supply. Buyers have more room to negotiate.
- A pre-qualification letter is a snapshot, not a lock. An older one may rest on rate assumptions that no longer hold.
- Self-employed and flexible-documentation borrowers should refresh first. Credit for those programs tightened in August.
What Changed: Four Weeks of Rising Rates
The 30-year fixed rose every week in September, and the last two weeks did most of the damage. Freddie Mac’s survey showed 6.66% on August 27. It then moved to 6.71% on September 3, 6.76% on September 10, 6.95% on September 17 and 7.03% on September 24. The September 17 jump of 19 basis points was the largest of the run.
A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point. So 37 basis points is more than a third of a point. That is a real change in what a fixed loan costs a buyer.
The year-over-year picture is starker. A year earlier, Freddie Mac’s 30-year averaged 6.30%. The 15-year fixed stood at 6.42% in the September 24 release, up from 6.26%. Freddie Mac’s chief economist said the housing market remains supported by a solid labor market and an economy growing at a healthy rate. Fair enough. It just costs more to buy into that market than it did a month ago.
Different surveys give different levels, so name the source every time. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey, released September 23 for the week ending September 18, showed its 30-year contract rate moving up from the prior week, a rise of well under a quarter point. Mortgage News Daily’s daily index put the 30-year fixed higher still on September 25, above the MBA’s reading. These are not errors. Each uses its own method. Don’t blend them, and don’t let anyone tell you “rates are the same everywhere.”
Applications tell you how buyers reacted. The MBA said its seasonally adjusted Purchase Index fell 1% that week. The unadjusted index rose 9%, but that reflects the Labor Day holiday adjustment. It is not a demand surge. The Refinance Index fell 3%. Refinancing has mostly gone dormant.
The Fed and the 10-Year
The Fed hiked, but mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield more closely than they follow the Fed’s target. The Federal Reserve’s statement on September 16 said the Committee voted 12-0 to raise the target range by a quarter point, to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. The statement said inflation remains elevated. Kiplinger reported it as the first raise since 2023. The July meeting had held rates unchanged.
The 10-year matters more for your loan. CNBC reported on September 16 that the yield was up about a full percentage point since its February low. Press reports put it above 5.1% on September 23, a 19-year high, and near 5.27% intraday on September 28. I’d treat those as press figures until you check the official Treasury series. The direction is not in doubt.
The outlook is unsettled. The Fed’s projections show a split. CNBC said that for 2027, eight officials pointed to another hike, six to a hold and four to cuts. TD Economics read the median 2026 projection as suggesting the potential for another hike by year-end. Nobody knows where the 10-year settles. WRE News said on September 28 that it had not found a durable ceiling.
What Changed: The Other Side of the Ledger
Buyers have more choice and more negotiating power than they’ve had in years. NAR’s August existing-home sales report, released September 10, put inventory at 1.62 million units. That is up 3.2% from July and 5.9% from August 2025. Supply reached 4.9 months, up from 4.6 months in July. According to the same NAR report, sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million, down 2.0% for the month. NAR’s chief economist said the ample supply is giving buyers better opportunities to negotiate.
Redfin’s data points the same way. In its release of September 17, covering the four weeks ending September 13, pending sales fell 3.5% week over week to their lowest level in almost three years. New listings were up 1.5% from a year earlier. Redfin also said there are hundreds of thousands more sellers than buyers, and the typical home that sold spent 46 days on the market.
New construction shows the same softness. Census reported on September 24 that August new-home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 684,000. That was 6.4% above July, but Inman noted the change was not statistically significant. Supply stood at 8.5 months. Inman also cited the National Association of Home Builders: 38% of builders reported price cuts in September.
Now the caution. More inventory does not mean cheap homes. NAR’s median price rose 1.6% from a year earlier to $429,100, the 38th straight year-over-year gain. Redfin’s median sale price was up 2%. Leverage shows up as concessions, repairs and patience at the table. It does not yet show up as headline price cuts.
And existing sales are not collapsing. NAR said sales were up 1.6% year to date through August. The market is slow, not broken.
What Does This Mean for a Home Buyer With a Pre-Qualification Letter?
Your letter is a snapshot of one day’s rate assumptions, and it gets stale as rates move. A pre-qualification is an early estimate of what you might borrow, based on information you supply. A pre-approval goes further, with documents reviewed and a fuller look at your file. Neither is a rate lock. Neither is a commitment to lend. Both rest on the rate in use when the letter was produced.
Take a plain hypothetical. Say a letter was sized when the 30-year average sat at 6.66%. Freddie Mac’s figure is now 7.03%. Every dollar of price you borrow against costs more to carry. The same income supports a smaller loan. I won’t put dollar figures on that, because your file is your own. The direction is clear, though: a letter issued before the September run-up likely overstates your range.
That is why the refresh matters. It is not about credential-collecting. It stops you from writing an offer, and negotiating hard for concessions, on a budget that has quietly shrunk. Losing an accepted offer to a financing surprise is a bad outcome for you and for the seller.
Who Should Refresh First?
Self-employed and flexible-documentation borrowers should go first, because credit for those programs tightened in August. The MBA’s Mortgage Credit Availability Index fell 1% to 107.3 in August, per Scotsman Guide. HousingWire reported the MBA’s Joel Kan saying lenders reduced offerings of programs requiring flexible documentation, and cash-out refinance loans. I’d read that as a reason to confirm which programs are still available before you fall in love with a house.
If you qualify on bank statements, business cash flow or rental income rather than W-2s, these programs still exist. Our loan options page describes what each is reviewed on and carries the current guidelines. Eligibility is subject to lender guidelines, and the page is the source of truth, not this column.
First-time buyers face a quieter version of the same problem. I found no first-time-buyer share figure inside the window, so I’ll stay qualitative. Redfin’s advice is that buyers who can afford to should take advantage of a slow market. The word “afford” carries a lot of weight in that sentence right now.
My Take: Refresh the Letter, Then Use the Leverage
My read is simple. This is a buyer’s market in negotiation and a seller’s market in borrowing cost. Both are true at once, and the smart move is to price the second before you spend the first.
I think many buyers will do the reverse. They’ll see 4.9 months of supply and feel relaxed. They’ll walk into a showing with a letter from August. Then the offer goes in, the lender re-runs the numbers at today’s market, and the budget gap shows up at the worst moment.
Here’s what I’d tell a friend. Don’t wait for rates to fall before you refresh, because nobody can tell you they will. The Fed’s own projections are split between another hike, a hold and cuts. Planning around a hoped-for decline is a bet, not a strategy.
Also, don’t over-read one week. The 10-year has moved sharply, and a sharp move can reverse. But the four-week run in Freddie Mac’s survey, the Fed’s hike and the MBA’s tighter credit read all point the same way. I’d rather build the budget on the worse number and be pleasantly surprised.
One more opinion, and it’s unfashionable. The best use of extra inventory is patience about the right house, not speed to any house. A buyer with a fresh, honest budget and a 46-day median sale time in the Redfin data has room to be picky. Use it.
What I’d Do Now
Do five things this week, in this order. None of them requires you to buy anything. All of them protect the offer you eventually write.
1. Ask for a refreshed letter with today’s market assumptions. Ask the broker or lender to say what rate assumption sized it and when. If the answer is “before September,” you know what to do.
2. Reset your ceiling below the old number. Treat the refreshed figure as a ceiling, not a target. Comfortable is better than approved.
3. Ask about your program before you tour. If you are self-employed, or your income doesn’t fit a standard W-2 file, confirm which programs are open. The August credit data says the menu got smaller.
4. Learn how a lock works, and decide when to use one. A rate lock is an agreement that holds a quoted rate for a set period once you have a property under contract. It protects you if the market moves against you. It also means you don’t benefit if the market moves your way. My rule, and it is only a rule of thumb: if the numbers work and you like the house, lock. Floating is a bet on the 10-year, and the 10-year has been unkind.
5. Compare quotes on the same day. Quotes gathered on different days are not comparable, and this month a week’s gap can hide a big move. Get every quote within a narrow window, on the same loan type, with the same assumptions. Then compare.
On the offer itself, use the leverage where it actually exists. Ask for concessions, repairs and a fair inspection window before you chase a price cut. NAR’s median price is still rising, so a price cut is the hardest thing to win. A repair credit or a seller-paid item is easier.
I would not tell anyone to buy or sell a specific asset. I’ll tell you to know your number before you make an offer.
What About Investors and Owners With Equity?
The dated data in this window is thin for investors, so I’ll keep this review short. The MBA said lenders cut cash-out refinance programs in August. If you were planning to tap equity this fall, confirm what is still on offer before you plan around it.
For background only, a HousingWire report from June 30 projected non-QM production of $175 billion in 2026, against $108 billion in 2025. It said DSCR and investor products are about half of all non-QM collateral. That is older than the 45-day window and says nothing about September. For how those loans work, see our complete DSCR loans guide.
A Word if You’re Weighing a Purchase or Refinance
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file. Start with the loan options page and bring your questions.
Frequently Asked Questions
Do I need a new pre-qualification if mine is only a few weeks old?
Probably, if it was sized before the September rate run. Freddie Mac’s 30-year average moved 37 basis points in four weeks, from 6.66% on August 27 to 7.03% on September 24. A letter built on the earlier level may overstate your range. Ask what rate assumption sized it and when.
Is a pre-qualification the same as a rate lock?
No. A pre-qualification is an estimate based on the information you provided and the market on the day it was produced. A lock is a separate agreement that holds a quoted rate for a stated period once you have a property under contract. The letter can be weeks stale while the market has moved.
Does the Fed hike mean my mortgage rate goes up by the same amount?
Not directly. The Fed voted 12-0 on September 16 to raise its target range by a quarter point. Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury yield more closely, and that yield has risen about a full point since February. The Fed’s move is one input among several.
With inventory this high, should I wait for lower prices?
Waiting is a bet, and the data doesn’t back it strongly. NAR’s report of September 10 showed the median price up 1.6% from a year earlier, the 38th straight annual gain. What buyers have is negotiating room: concessions, repairs and time. If prices soften later, you’ll have lost nothing by getting your budget straight now.
I’m self-employed. Does this change anything for me?
It gives you a reason to refresh early. The MBA’s credit availability index fell 1% in August, and the MBA’s Joel Kan said lenders reduced offerings of programs requiring flexible documentation. Check which programs are open now. Eligibility is subject to lender guidelines, and the loan options page carries the current details.
About Lendmire
Lendmire — NMLS# 2371349 — is a mortgage brokerage whose founder writes this column. DSCR investor programs reach 41 markets, including Washington, D.C.; consumer programs such as bank statement, HELOC and down payment assistance loans are arranged in 16 states; every loan is placed with, and underwritten by, a wholesale lender under that lender’s guidelines. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
1. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
2. Federal Reserve FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
3. Kiplinger Fed coverage, September 16, 2026
4. NAR August existing-home sales, September 10, 2026
5. Inman on August new-home sales, September 25, 2026
6. Scotsman Guide on mortgage credit availability, September 10, 2026
7. HousingWire on mortgage credit availability, September 10, 2026
8. HousingWire non-QM outlook, June 30, 2026 (background)
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: Getting Pre-Approved for a Home Loan · Brighter Days Ahead: Preparing Your Finances for a Smooth Mortgage Pre-Approval Before Easter · First Steps to Buy a Home
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
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Disclosures. The information presented in this article is general market commentary, not financial, legal, or tax advice. Lendmire is a mortgage brokerage (NMLS# 2371349) — not a direct lender or depository institution — and loan placement is subject to lender underwriting. Nothing in this content represents a commitment to lend. Loan terms, pricing, and program availability vary based on borrower qualifications, property characteristics, and state of subject property, and are subject to change at any time. Lendmire complies with Equal Housing Opportunity requirements. Consumer access: nmlsconsumeraccess.org.