The Quick Read: As of September 28, 2026, borrowing costs have climbed for several weeks running, and the Fed raised its target range on September 16 for the first time since 2023. A pre-approval run on last spring’s numbers can overstate what you qualify for today. Refresh your debt-to-income math and ask your loan officer to re-run the approval. Then decide whether you are ready to lock once you have a contract.
I’ve spent eighteen years in lending, and the rule I trust most in a month like this one is simple. A pre-approval is a snapshot. It is not a promise. When the market moves, the snapshot goes stale.
Key Takeaways
- Freddie Mac’s survey has the 30-year average up five straight weeks, through the week of September 24, 2026.
- The Fed’s September 16 hike was its first since 2023, and the vote was unanimous.
- Spring’s pre-approvals were built on a lower rate environment. Refresh yours before you write an offer.
- Rising supply gives buyers more room to negotiate, but it does not make waiting free.
- A pre-approval does not lock a rate. A lock comes later, and it is a separate step.
What Changed This Month
The short version: rates rose almost every week in September, and the long end of the market moved faster than the Fed did.
Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the 30-year fixed average at 7.03% for the week of September 24, 2026. The week before it was 6.95%. A year earlier the figure was 6.30%. That reading was the first above 7% since January 2025, per Fox Business’ coverage of the release.
The path is worth seeing in full. Freddie’s average fell slightly on August 20, then rose each week after that. It added 5 basis points on September 3 and another 5 on September 10. Then came a 19-basis-point jump on September 17, which Realtor.com’s Anthony Smith called the largest one-week move since April 2025. The September 24 reading added 8 more. From August 20 to September 24, the cumulative climb is 38 basis points.
A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point. So 38 of them is a bit more than a third of a point.
Here is the catch. Freddie’s number is a weekly average. It lags. The survey also covers a prime borrower: conventional, conforming, with 20% down and excellent credit. It is a useful gauge, not a quote. Exact terms depend on the lender’s guidelines, property type, leverage, and a full review of the borrower’s file.
The daily picture is higher. On September 24, the day Freddie printed 7.03%, Mortgage News Daily’s index moved from 7.26% to 7.45%. It then closed September 30 near 7.5% to 7.6%, depending on which page of its site you read. That is the highest since November 2023. I would treat the exact close as unsettled and the direction as clear.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey tells the same story from the demand side. For the week ending September 25, released September 30, applications fell 6%. In that survey, the contract rate on a 30-year fixed rose for the sixth straight week. Purchase applications fell 4% and refinance applications fell 9%, both seasonally adjusted.
The Fed Did Its Part, but Not All of It
The Federal Reserve raised its target range by a quarter point on September 16, to 3¾ to 4%, per its implementation note. The prior range was 3.50 to 3.75%. Advisor Perspectives reports the vote was 12–0 and that it was the first increase since 2023. The median projection for year-end rose to 4.1% from 3.8%, per TD Economics. That implies one more hike.
Now a common misreading. The Fed does not set mortgage rates. Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury yield far more closely than the policy rate, as Fox Business notes. The policy rate rose a quarter point. Mortgage News Daily’s index is up roughly 70 basis points since the end of August. The long end moved faster than the Fed.
Why did yields rise? TD Economics pointed to a hotter-than-expected inflation report and higher oil prices. Mortgage News Daily offered a wrinkle: rates rose on September 29 even as oil fell. So oil alone is not the whole story. I would not pretend anyone knows the full cause.
What Does a Stale Pre-Approval Actually Cost You?
It costs you accuracy. A pre-approval is built from your income, your debts, your credit and the rate environment on the day it was run. Change the rate, and the same income supports a smaller loan.
Look at the spring comparison. Freddie’s survey stood at 6.22% in mid-March and 6.30% on April 30, per its March 19 and April 30 releases. Today’s 7.03% is 73 basis points above the April 30 reading and 81 above the March 19 reading. That is my arithmetic from Freddie’s own numbers.
Run it as a plain hypothetical. If a rate moves from 6.3% to 7.0%, the gap is seven tenths of a point. Debt-to-income ratio compares your monthly debts to your monthly gross income. Lenders cap it. When the rate rises, the monthly cost of the same loan rises, and your ratio climbs with it. Something has to give: a smaller loan, a bigger down payment, or less other debt.
I won’t tell you what you qualify for. Nobody can without your file. But the direction is not in doubt. A letter dated April or May was written for a cheaper market.
That argument is mine, not a sourced finding. The rate comparison is sourced. The conclusion is my read of it.
What It Means for Home Buyers
The buyer’s position is mixed. Costs are up. Leverage is also up. Both are true at once.
Demand has cooled. The MBA reported that the week ending September 18 saw purchase applications down 1% seasonally adjusted and 11% below a year earlier unadjusted, per its September 23 release. Fewer buyers are bidding. Every figure here varies by lender and program — guidelines, property type, leverage, and credit profile all apply.
Supply is growing. NAR’s report on August existing-home sales, released September 10, showed sales down 2.0% on the month to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 3.98 million. Inventory stood at 1.62 million homes, up 5.9% from a year earlier. That is a 4.9-month supply. NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, said it is the highest in over ten years. The median price was $429,100, up 1.6% from a year earlier, the 38th straight monthly year-over-year gain.
Realtor.com’s September report, summarized by WRE News on September 30, adds texture. Active listings rose 5.4% from a year ago to more than 1.16 million. Homes under contract fell 4.1%. And 20.8% of listings carried a price cut, the highest September share since 2018.
Prices and listings can tell different stories because closings lag listings. NAR measures what closed. Realtor.com measures what is on the market now. Both can be true.
So what does a buyer do with this? Negotiate, since NAR’s Yun said ample supply is giving buyers better chances to bargain. A seller who has cut the price once may cut again, or help with closing costs.
The Adjustable-Rate Question
Some buyers are shopping on the spread between fixed and adjustable loans. The MBA’s September 23 release put adjustable-rate loans at 9.8% of applications, with 5/1 adjustable rates more than a point below fixed rates. An adjustable loan carries real risk when the rate resets. It is not a free discount. If you are weighing one, ask for the reset terms in writing and compare them against how long you realistically expect to own the home.
A Quiet Change in Credit Scoring
There is a policy item buyers should know about. On September 9, the Federal Housing Finance Agency opened VantageScore 4.0 to all approved lenders for loans sold to the two big housing enterprises. On September 28, FHFA’s director said both would use a single pricing grid for Classic FICO and VantageScore 4.0, as HousingWire reported. Lenders must use the same scoring model for every borrower on a loan.
My practical read: ask which score model your lender will use. That is a fair question, and it is now a real one.
My Take
Waiting for a rate drop is a bet, not a plan. I understand the appeal. More homes are for sale, price cuts are common, and demand is soft. It feels like the market is handing buyers time.
But look at what the Fed’s own projections say. The median points to a hike this year, and per J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s read of the projections, no cuts until 2028. Sources disagree on how many officials expect one more hike, so I’d rely only on the median. The point stands either way: the projections do not promise relief.
This is a genuine toss-up for some buyers. If you have a flexible timeline and strong cash reserves, patience may cost you little, and the supply data helps you. If you have a lease ending or a job move, waiting adds risk without a clear payoff.
Where I have no doubt is the pre-approval itself. Running a refreshed one costs you an afternoon. Walking into a negotiation with a spring letter and finding out it is stale costs you leverage, and maybe the house.
Another opinion: I think the headline “rates just crossed a major milestone” misleads people. Mortgage News Daily noted that outlets saying so were relying on Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, which lags the market. The daily index had already moved past that level earlier. A buyer who waited for the headline was already behind.
What I’d Do Now
Here is the order I would work in. None of this is advice to buy or sell any particular home.
1. Redo your debt-to-income math. Add up your monthly debts: car notes, student loans, credit card minimums. Divide by your gross monthly income. Do it again with today’s market in mind, because the same loan costs more per month than it did in April. If the ratio is tighter than you expected, you now know that before you fall in love with a house.
2. Ask for a refreshed pre-approval. Not a prequalification. A prequalification is a quick estimate, often from information you state yourself. A pre-approval involves documents and a credit review. Only the second carries weight with a seller. If yours is more than a few weeks old, I would ask for a new one.
3. Understand what a pre-approval does not do. It does not lock your rate. Your rate floats until you lock it, and you generally lock after you have an accepted offer. A lock is a lender’s commitment to hold a rate for a set period. If you like the rate and the deal, lock it. Floating through a month like this is a gamble.
4. Compare quotes gathered on the same day. Rates move daily, and in September they have moved a lot. A quote from two weeks ago and a quote from today are not comparable. If you are comparing brokers or lenders, get them all in the same sitting, on the same loan, with the same assumptions.
5. Look at the full menu. Not every buyer fits a conventional loan, and some fit better elsewhere. Self-employed buyers, buyers with irregular income, and investors can qualify on different grounds, subject to lender guidelines. Our loan options page carries the current guidelines for each program. I state no figures here because that page is the source of truth.
Investors have a related path. If you are buying a rental, our guide to investment property pre-approval explains how that process differs. Data from Optimal Blue, syndicated by ABC17 on September 28, shows conforming loans fell below half of rate-lock volume this year. It also shows investor and DSCR loans made up more than 35% of non-QM production in August.
6. Use the seasonal window if it fits. Realtor.com’s seasonal analysis points to September 27 through October 3 as a favorable week to buy. Its publication date was unclear in the copy I found, so treat that as a soft signal. It is one more reason to be ready, not a reason to rush.
What About Refinancing?
If you own a home and were hoping to refinance, the market has turned against you for now. The MBA’s September 23 release put refinance applications 62% below a year earlier. The MBA also says rates above 6.5% have shut off a large part of refinancing since May. I found no sourced data on home-equity lines this month, so I will not guess.
Questions Still Open
A few things I cannot tell you, because the data does not say.
- How many more hikes? The median points to one. The vote count behind it differs by source.
- Is 7.03% or 7.5% the right level? Freddie lags and covers prime borrowers. Mortgage News Daily is daily and reflects points. They measure different things.
- Are new homes turning? August new-home sales rose 6.4% to an annual pace of 684,000, per Census figures reported by Inman. Census did not consider the change statistically significant, and it takes about four months to establish a trend.
- What does buyer sentiment say? I found no current reading, so I won’t invent one.
The next hard data arrives October 13, when NAR releases September existing-home sales.
Where This Leaves You
If you are weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file. Call 828-256-2183, or request a quote. We arrange loans through the lenders we work with. They review eligibility and make the credit decision.
For the end-to-end picture of how these loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does my pre-approval protect me if rates keep rising?
No. A pre-approval estimates what you can borrow. It does not lock a rate. Your rate floats until you lock it, and that usually happens once you have an accepted offer. Until then, a rising market can shrink what you qualify for.
How old is too old for a pre-approval?
There is no universal answer, and lenders set their own validity windows. But a letter run before the September rate jump was built on a cheaper market. Freddie Mac’s average is up 73 basis points from its April 30 reading. If your letter predates that, ask for a refresh before you bid.
Should I wait for rates to come back down?
It is a bet, and the Fed’s own projections do not point to near-term relief. The median shows another hike this year. Rising inventory and price cuts give you negotiating room now, which is a real benefit. Waiting only makes sense if your timeline is truly flexible.
Why do the headline figures in the news not match each other?
They measure different things. Freddie Mac publishes a weekly average for prime borrowers. Mortgage News Daily publishes a daily index. The MBA reports contract figures drawn from applications. Same market, different yardsticks and different timing. Treat each as a direction, not a quote.
Does the credit-score change affect me?
It might, depending on your lender and the type of loan. Since September 9, VantageScore 4.0 has been open to all approved lenders for loans sold to the two housing enterprises. Ask which score model your lender will use. Lenders must apply the same model to every borrower on a loan, subject to lender guidelines.
About Lendmire
Lendmire, NMLS# 2371349, is a mortgage broker with two platforms: DSCR investor lending across 41 markets, including Washington, D.C., and consumer mortgage programs in 16 states, all arranged through wholesale lending partners. This column is written by Lendmire’s founder and reflects the market as of its publication date; program terms and availability are set by the lender on each file. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
1. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
2. Fox Business, Freddie Mac coverage, September 24, 2026
3. HousingWire, MBA weekly applications, September 30, 2026
4. Federal Reserve implementation note, September 16, 2026
5. Advisor Perspectives, Fed decision, September 16, 2026
6. TD Economics, FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
7. Freddie Mac release, March 19, 2026
8. Freddie Mac release, April 30, 2026
9. MBA weekly survey, September 23, 2026
10. NAR existing-home sales, August, released September 10, 2026
11. summarized by WRE News on September 30
12. HousingWire, FHFA single pricing grid, September 29, 2026
13. J.P. Morgan Asset Management, FOMC note, September 17, 2026
14. Optimal Blue data via ABC17/Stacker, September 28, 2026
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: Why A Local Real Estate Broker Matters As Buyers Gain Leverage, September 2026? · September 2026: Buyers Need A Real Estate Agent As Supply Grows, Rates Climb · Listing Your Home For Sale This Fall As Inventory Climbs And Rates Rise
Brandon Miller
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Required disclosures. Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) operates as a licensed mortgage broker, not a direct lender or depository. The discussion in this article is general in nature and should not be relied upon as financial, legal, or tax advice — every investment scenario is unique and should be reviewed by a qualified professional. Any loan inquiry is subject to lender underwriting, and this article is not a commitment to lend or a guarantee of approval. Mortgage rates, loan terms, and program guidelines vary by borrower, property, and state, and may change without notice. Equal Housing Opportunity. Verify licensure at NMLS Consumer Access.