The Quick Read: As of September 28, 2026, buyers have more homes to choose from and more room to negotiate than they have had in years. NAR’s August report showed supply at its highest level in over ten years. Freddie Mac’s 30-year average has now risen four weeks in a row, so the extra time has a cost. Settle your payment math first, then tour neighborhoods.
Key Takeaways
- NAR’s report of September 10 put supply at 4.9 months and inventory at 1.62 million homes, the most in over a decade.
- About two-thirds of builders used sales incentives in September, per NAHB’s survey of September 16.
- Freddie Mac’s survey rose for a fourth straight week, to 7.03% for the week of September 24, 2026.
- Higher inventory does not mean falling prices. NAR’s median sale price is still up year over year.
- Waiting is not free. Decide your budget before you visit, not after you fall for a house.
What Changed: The Dated Facts
Existing-home sales fell again in August. NAR’s report of September 10 showed a 2.0% drop from July and a 1.2% drop from a year earlier, per NAR’s release. The pace came in at 3.98 million. Inventory stood at 1.62 million homes, and supply at 4.9 months, per NAR’s housing snapshot. NAR’s chief economist called that the highest supply in over ten years. July sales had fallen 1.7%, and June sales 2.4%. It’s a soft summer, not a one-month blip.
Builders are feeling it too. NAHB’s confidence index fell three points to 32 in the survey of September 16, per NAHB. Sixty-six percent of builders used sales incentives, up from 63% in August and the highest share since December. NAHB’s chairman said buyer traffic has weakened across much of the country, largely because of rising mortgage rates.
Census reported August new single-family sales at a 684,000 annual pace on September 24. That is 6.4% above July. Census did not treat the monthly change as statistically significant, per Inman’s report of September 25. I would not read a jump into it. Census also counted 483,000 new houses for sale at the end of August.
Now the cost side. Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, up from 6.95% the week before. A year ago it averaged 6.30%. The streak, week by week: 6.71% on September 3, 6.76% on September 10, 6.95% on September 17, 7.03% on September 24. That is four straight increases, roughly 37 basis points in total from 6.66% at the end of August.
The Fed added pressure. It raised its target range to 3-3/4 to 4 percent on September 16, per the Federal Reserve’s implementation note. The prior range was 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent.
Mortgage applications tell the same story. For the week ending September 18, the MBA’s seasonally adjusted purchase index fell 1%, per the MBA’s survey of September 23. The unadjusted purchase index was 11% below a year earlier. Refinance applications were 62% lower than a year ago.
Why Do Three Different Rate Numbers Exist?
No single number is “the” mortgage rate. Freddie Mac’s survey, the MBA’s contract rate and Mortgage News Daily’s index each use a different method and a different day. All three point the same direction this month: up.
Freddie Mac’s 7.03% comes from loan applications submitted to it, and it covers conventional, conforming, fully amortizing purchase loans. The MBA’s contract rate rose to 7.12% from 6.97% in the week ending September 18. Mortgage News Daily’s daily index showed 7.43% on September 25, down 0.02 that day.
Which one matters to you? None of them, exactly. They are benchmarks, not quotes. Your actual quote depends on your file, your loan type and the day it is priced. Use the benchmarks for direction. Use quotes for decisions.
What It Means for Home Buyers
Buyers have leverage and a clock, both at once. That is the whole story of this fall.
The leverage is real. Supply is at a ten-year high. Builders are cutting prices, and 38% did so in September, up from 35%, with the average cut holding at 6% for a sixth month, per investinglive’s summary of the NAHB data. One builder HousingWire profiled leaned on rate buydowns and closing-cost help. A buydown is a payment from the seller or builder that lowers the buyer’s interest cost for a set period or for the life of the loan. Ask for one. It costs nothing to ask.
The clock is real too. Rates rose 73 basis points in a year, per Freddie Mac’s survey. Higher borrowing costs cut what a given monthly budget can buy. That is arithmetic, not opinion. If the 30-year moves from 6.95% to 7.03%, that is 8 basis points. Over four weeks it added up to 37.
Here is the catch. Inventory is not the same as falling prices. NAR’s median existing-home price was $429,100 in August, and NAR’s median sale price is still up 1.6% from a year earlier. Asking prices and new-home averages are softening. Sale prices on existing homes have not followed yet. Regional differences are large, and NAR says so in its release. Do not assume your target area matches the national picture.
Two things can be true. Your neighborhood may have more choices than last spring. And waiting for a bigger discount may cost more than the discount saves. Nobody can tell you which one wins.
My Take
My read: this is a good fall to shop and a poor fall to drift. More inventory rewards buyers who are prepared. Rising rates punish buyers who are not.
I think many buyers are anchored to the wrong comparison. They remember 2021, or they remember last spring’s bidding wars. The right comparison is this month’s rate, this month’s inventory, and your own budget. Spring of 2021 is not coming back, and I would not plan around it.
The Fed is not the only driver, either. Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury yield more closely than the fed funds rate. Bankrate reported the 10-year yield rose above 5% on September 23, up from around 4% earlier this year. Check the exact daily level at FRED’s 10-year series before you quote it to anyone. One commentator noted that markets barely reacted to the Fed on September 16 and that rates eased the next day when oil fell. So the path from here runs through more than one door. I would not bet on direction in either way.
Honestly, this one’s a genuine toss-up on timing. The data favors negotiating room now. The trend favors moving before rates climb further. I lean toward the buyer who is ready to act on the right house, and against the buyer who waits for a perfect one.
What I’d Do Now
Do the money work first, then the neighborhood work. Buyers who tour before they know their budget fall for homes they cannot afford, or worse, stretch. Buyers who settle the numbers first tour with a clear filter.
Step one: get real quotes. Ask for quotes on the same day, so they are comparable. A quote from Tuesday and a quote from Friday in a month like this one are not the same product. Freddie Mac’s chief economist said in the September 10 release that shopping around and getting multiple quotes can potentially save thousands. I agree. A broker can compare several lenders’ offers side by side. Our loan options page describes what each program is reviewed on and links to the current guidelines, which are subject to lender guidelines and change.
Step two: set a ceiling, not a target. Pick the highest monthly budget you would be comfortable holding if rates rose again. Then shop below it. A buyer who plans for the next increase is not surprised by it.
Step three: know how a lock works. A rate lock is an agreement that holds a quoted rate for a set period while your loan is processed. If you are not locked, you are floating, which means your rate can move with the market until you lock. Floating is a bet. This month it has been a losing one. If you like the house and the numbers work, lock it. If a lock covers only part of your timeline, ask about that before you choose.
Step four: tour with a scorecard. Now the fun part. Visit each neighborhood at least twice, once on a weekday morning and once on a weekend afternoon. Rank these, in your own order:
- Commute, tested at the hour you would actually drive it.
- Daily errands: grocery, pharmacy, school drop-off.
- Noise and traffic at different times of day.
- How long comparable homes in that neighborhood have sat listed.
- Whether new construction is nearby, and what builders there are offering.
- What the seller or builder will put toward closing costs or a buydown.
Step five: use the leverage on the right target. Builders are the most motivated party right now, with about two-thirds using incentives. Resale sellers in high-supply pockets may be next. Ask for the concession that helps you most, whether that is a price cut, closing help or a buydown. They are not the same thing, and the right one depends on how long you plan to stay.
Step six: keep your file clean. Do not open new credit, move money around or change jobs mid-search without talking to your loan officer first. In this market, a clean file is one less variable.
One more note on self-employed buyers and investors. Some borrowers do not fit a standard file. Non-QM loans qualify on alternatives such as bank statements or, for investors, property income. Depending on program guidelines, those options may fit. The same product page covers them.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file.
Common Misreadings This Month
“The benchmark rate is my rate.” No. Headline benchmarks are weekly readings for conforming purchase loans, and a DSCR quote is priced off your own file rather than off that number. Your quote depends on your file.
“The Fed sets mortgage rates.” It does not. Mortgage rates follow longer-term yields, and the Fed moves the short end.
“Inventory is up, so prices are falling.” Not in the NAR median, which is still up 1.6% year over year. Asking prices and new-home averages are the softer pieces.
“New-home sales jumped 6.4%.” Census did not call that change statistically significant. Treat it as noise until the next report.
“Waiting is free.” Four straight weekly increases say otherwise. The direction is not guaranteed. The last four weeks have still been up.
For the end-to-end picture of how these loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is fall a good time to buy a home in 2026?
It is a better time to negotiate than any point in the last several years. NAR’s report of September 10 showed supply at its highest in over ten years, and about two-thirds of builders were using incentives in NAHB’s September survey. The cost is rates: Freddie Mac’s survey rose for a fourth week to 7.03%. Good for choice, tougher on budget.
Should I wait for rates to come down before I buy?
Nobody can promise rates will fall. The past four weeks have gone the other way, and Freddie Mac’s survey is up 73 basis points from a year ago. If the house and the budget both work today, waiting for a lower rate is a bet. If you do wait, know that you may pay more later. You can also refinance later if rates fall, but that is never certain.
Does more inventory mean prices are dropping?
Not for existing homes, at least not yet nationally. NAR’s median sale price was still up modestly from a year earlier as of the September 10 report. What is falling is builder pricing: a sizable share of builders cut prices in September. Local markets differ a lot, so check recent sold prices in your target neighborhood.
How do I compare mortgage quotes fairly?
Get them on the same day, for the same loan type and the same lock period. Rates moved 19 basis points in a single week this month, so quotes from different days are not comparable. Ask a broker to gather several offers at once. That is the cleanest way to see the differences.
Why do Freddie Mac, the MBA and Mortgage News Daily show different rates?
They measure different things on different days. Freddie Mac’s 30-year averaged 7.03% for the week of September 24. The MBA’s contract rate was 7.12% for the week ending September 18. Mortgage News Daily’s index showed 7.43% on September 25. Treat them as direction signals, not quotes.
Investors who want the broader program framework can review how DSCR loans work.
About Lendmire
Lendmire, NMLS# 2371349, is a mortgage broker with two platforms: DSCR investor lending across 41 markets, including Washington, D.C., and consumer mortgage programs in 16 states, all arranged through wholesale lending partners. This column is written by Lendmire’s founder and reflects the market as of its publication date; program terms and availability are set by the lender on each file. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
2. NAHB builder sentiment, September 16, 2026
4. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, September 24, 2026
5. Federal Reserve implementation note, September 16, 2026
6. MBA Weekly Applications Survey, September 23, 2026
7. investinglive’s summary of the NAHB data
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: Buying Local In September 2026 Costs More If You Wait
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
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Disclosure information. Lendmire is a state-licensed mortgage brokerage under NMLS# 2371349. Lendmire is not a depository institution, direct lender, or financial advisor — all loans referenced are placed through wholesale lender partners and are subject to each lender's underwriting standards. This article is provided for general informational purposes and is not a commitment to lend, nor does it constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. Loan programs, terms, rates, and qualification standards change without notice and depend on borrower profile, property type, and the state in which the subject property is located. Equal Housing Opportunity provider. NMLS Consumer Access: nmlsconsumeraccess.org.