The Quick Read: As of September 28, 2026, buyers face more listings, more price cuts and more builder incentives than they did in April. The National Association of Realtors reported on September 10 that August existing-home sales fell 2.0% from July. Meanwhile, Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, 2026. The leverage is real but uneven, and rising rates take back part of what it gives you.
Key Takeaways
- Existing-home sales have fallen three months in a row, and months of supply reached 4.9 in August, per NAR’s September 10 report.
- Builders are the most active sellers at the table: 38% cut prices in September and 66% used incentives, per the NAHB index reported by Inman on September 25.
- Freddie Mac’s 30-year average rose four weeks in a row through September 24, and the Fed raised its target range on September 16.
- Leverage shows up as choice and negotiating room, not steep discounts. Existing-home prices are still slightly higher than a year ago.
- The price you negotiate is fixed at closing. The rate is what you have to manage, so learn how locks work before you make an offer.
What Changed Since the Spring
Start with the rate, because it drives everything else.
Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed average at 7.03% for the week of September 24, 2026, up from 6.95% the week before. A year earlier, the same survey stood at 6.30%. That is a 73 basis point climb in twelve months. (A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.)
Now the run. By my count of Freddie Mac’s weekly releases, the average rose four weeks in a row. It was 6.71% in the release for September 3. It reached 6.95% in the release for September 17, a 19 basis point jump in one week. Then it hit 7.03% a week later.
Go back further. Freddie Mac’s April 30 release showed 6.30%, and its February 19 release showed 6.01%, the low of the year so far. From that February print, the 30-year average has risen about 102 basis points.
Other gauges run higher because they measure different things. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey, released September 23, put its 30-year contract rate at 7.12%, the highest since May 2024. Mortgage News Daily’s index, which tracks lender rate sheets in real time, closed at 7.50% on September 28. MND said that was the first time the average lender had been there since April 30, 2024.
Why does the Fed matter here? It raised its target range by a quarter point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent on September 16, in a 12–0 vote. The Federal Reserve’s statement said inflation “remains elevated.” But the Fed did not set your mortgage rate that day. Mortgage rates follow longer-term yields. CNBC reported the 10-year Treasury at 5.234% on September 28, after trading just below 4.8% earlier in the month. The market was already moving before the meeting.
Where Did the Buyers Go?
Applications tell the story of the spring rush ending.
A published report for the week ending September 18 showed the seasonally adjusted purchase index down 1% on the week. The unadjusted purchase index was 11% lower than a year earlier. The refinance index was 62% lower than a year ago. That MBA survey also showed adjustable-rate loans reaching 9.8% of applications.
Compare that with early summer. The MBA’s July 1 release said purchase applications had shown year-over-year growth for almost three months. Spring was busy. Fall is not.
Closed sales followed. NAR’s August report showed existing-home sales down 2.0% from July and 1.2% from a year earlier. July had fallen 1.7% and June 2.4%, per NAR’s releases of August 11 and July 9. That is three straight monthly declines. June was still up 2.8% from a year earlier, and August is down. The year-over-year comparison flipped.
One caution. NAR’s year-to-date sales are still up 1.6% through the first eight months, so this is a fall-versus-spring story. Not a collapse.
Is the Leverage Real?
Yes, in places. Not everywhere, and not evenly.
Start with supply. HousingWire’s summary of the August data put existing inventory at 1.62 million homes, with sales running at a 3.98 million annual pace. NAR’s page put months of supply at 4.9, which is the number of months it would take to sell current inventory at the current sales pace. More supply and slower sales tilt the table toward the buyer.
Realtor.com’s weekly data, as summarized by WRE News for the week ending September 19, showed active inventory up 5.8% from a year earlier, with more than 1.17 million homes listed. The median listing price was $419,500, down 1.3% from a year earlier. That was the 36th straight week of year-over-year declines. This is a secondary summary of Realtor.com data, so check the source if you plan to quote it.
Here is the catch. That same summary showed the typical home spending 61 days on the market, one day less than a year ago. Homes are not sitting longer. So the leverage is about choice and terms more than deep discounts.
Realtor.com also flagged the week of September 27 through October 3 as a seasonal high point for choice. Its release said active listings that week run 13.3% above the average week, though still about 11% below pre-pandemic levels. Note that it is a seasonal pattern. It leaves interest rates out of the picture entirely.
Builders Are Moving First
If you want to see leverage in action, look at new construction.
Census reported on September 24 that new-home sales rose in August from July but stayed slightly below the level of August 2025. Census flags those changes as within the margin of error. Supply stood at more than eight months at the current sales pace. The median new-home price came in below its level a year earlier, but that change is not statistically significant. The average price also fell from a year earlier, and that decline is statistically significant.
The builder survey is clearer. Inman reported on September 25 that, per the NAHB index, 38% of builders cut prices in September, up from 35%. About 66% used incentives, the highest share since December. Reuters said August sales hit an eight-month high as buyers took advantage of price cuts and other incentives, while rising rates remained a drag.
So builders are paying to move homes. They are doing it through price and through incentives. Incentives are often about the financing side, which is worth understanding before you sign.
What It Means for Home Buyers
Buyers gain three things this fall. More choice. More time. More room to ask.
More choice is easy to see in the inventory numbers. More time follows from fewer buyers in the market, which is what falling purchase applications show. More room to ask shows up in builder incentives and in listing price cuts.
But rising rates change the math on every house. A higher rate raises the monthly cost of the same price. That is the offset. It is why leverage feels smaller than the headlines suggest.
Think in a plain hypothetical. If a rate moves from 6% to 7%, the difference is a full percentage point. On a mortgage, a point is a big deal. A price cut of a couple of percent can shrink or vanish once the rate moves against you.
Who feels this most? HousingWire’s coverage of the new-home data described the pressure as most acute among first-time and affordability-driven buyers. That fits what the numbers imply. Those buyers have the least room to absorb a higher rate.
Owners with equity face a different problem. Refinancing has largely stopped, with the MBA’s refinance index 62% below a year earlier. A September commentary from MCT, a mortgage trading and advisory firm, argued that owners locked into older loans lean toward home equity lines and second liens rather than a new first mortgage. Treat that as commentary, not data.
Borrowers who are self-employed or who buy investment property sit outside Freddie Mac’s benchmark. Freddie’s survey covers conventional, conforming, fully amortizing purchase loans for borrowers with large down payments and excellent credit. Non-QM and lower-documentation borrowers price differently. I can’t give you a figure for that, and I won’t guess. What I can do is point you to our loan options page, which carries the current guidelines and shows which programs qualify on things like bank statements or rental income, subject to lender guidelines.
My Take: Leverage Is About Terms, Not Bargains
Here is my read. Fall buyers have more leverage than spring buyers did. I don’t think that leverage is a bargain sale.
Look at the price data honestly. NAR’s median existing-home price was $429,100 in August, up 1.6% from a year earlier. Listing prices are down and new-home prices are softer. Those measure different things: closed sales, asking prices and new-build mix. Anyone telling you prices are crashing is reading one gauge and ignoring the others.
So where does leverage actually show up? Three places.
First, seller credits and repairs. A seller who has watched a listing sit is more open to those than to a lower price.
Second, builder incentives. Sixty-six percent of builders are using them. Ask what they cost you and what they are tied to.
Third, time. In April, a buyer often had to decide in a day. In fall, you can take a second look, order an inspection and sleep on it.
Is waiting for lower rates smarter? Honestly, this one’s a genuine toss-up. CNBC, citing CME FedWatch, put the odds of an October hike near 64% as of September 26. The Fed’s own projections were split: eight officials pointed to another hike in 2027, six to steady and four to cuts. Nobody in that room knows the path. I don’t either.
What I do know is the asymmetry. If rates fall, buyers who waited get a better financing picture, but they also rejoin a bigger crowd. If rates keep rising, the leverage you have this month is worth more than it looks. Neither outcome is certain.
Another thing I’ll say plainly. Some buyers try to time the perfect week. I think that is a mistake. Buy because the house fits your life and the payment fits your budget. Then use the fall market to negotiate the best terms you can.
What I’d Do Now
This is general guidance, not advice about any specific home or loan.
Get your financing sorted before you tour. A pre-approval tells you what a lender may finance, subject to their guidelines. It lets you make a real offer while the seller is in a listening mood.
Understand rate locks. A lock holds a quoted rate for a set period while your purchase moves toward closing. Floating means you leave it open and accept the risk that the market moves. When yields are climbing, as they have been for four weeks, floating is a bet. If you like the house and the numbers work, lock it. That is the rule I give people.
Compare quotes on the same day. A quote from Tuesday and a quote from Friday are not comparable in a market that moved 19 basis points in one week. Line them up on one date, with the same loan structure, or you are comparing noise.
Ask for the financing side of any incentive. Builders may offer help tied to a particular loan or closing arrangement. Ask what happens to the incentive if you use a different lender, and what the total cost looks like either way.
Be careful with adjustable loans. The MBA reported adjustable-rate loans at 9.8% of applications in the week ending September 18, a sign that buyers are reaching for lower starting costs. An adjustable loan can make sense for some buyers. But the starting cost is lower because the future cost is less certain. Read the adjustment terms before you sign.
Consider a small multi-unit. Some buyers look at a duplex as a way to live in one unit and rent the other. A duplex can carry the same leverage as a single-family home, which is the idea behind this option. The details vary by program and lender.
Don’t wait on a fixed deadline. If a job, a lease or a school calendar sets your timeline, that timeline beats the seasonal pattern. Fall leverage is a bonus. It is not a reason to miss what you need.
Where to Go From Here
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file. We arrange loans through the lenders we work with, so we compare structures rather than sell a single product. Call 828-256-2183 or request a quote.
For the end-to-end picture of how these loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is fall really a better time to buy than spring?
For choice and negotiating room, yes, this year. NAR’s August report showed months of supply at 4.9, and the MBA’s purchase index was 11% below a year earlier, so fewer buyers are chasing more homes. The offset is financing: Freddie Mac’s 30-year average is 73 basis points above a year ago. Better negotiating room does not cancel a higher rate. It softens it.
Should I wait for rates to fall before I buy?
Only if your timeline allows it, and only knowing that nobody can promise the direction. Fed officials were split on 2027, per CNBC’s September 16 report, and futures pricing put an October hike near 64%. If you wait, you may face a lower rate and a bigger crowd, or a higher rate and less choice. If the house and the budget work today, waiting is a bet rather than a plan.
Why do Freddie Mac, the MBA and Mortgage News Daily show different rates?
They measure different things. Freddie Mac’s survey reflects conventional purchase loans for borrowers with large down payments and excellent credit. The MBA reports its own contract-rate survey. Mortgage News Daily tracks real-time lender rate sheets, so it ran higher, at 7.50% on September 28. None of them is a quote for your loan. Your own quote depends on your file, the property and the day.
Are home prices falling?
Not across the board. NAR’s median existing-home price rose 1.6% from a year earlier to $429,100 in August. Realtor.com’s median listing price was down 1.3%, and Census reported new-home median and average prices below last year. Those are different measures. Existing-home prices are still slightly higher, while asking prices and new-home prices are softer.
Does the Fed’s rate hike mean my mortgage rate goes up the same amount?
No. The Fed raised its target range by 25 basis points on September 16, but mortgage rates track longer-term yields such as the 10-year Treasury. That yield was already climbing in the weeks before the meeting. So the Fed’s move and mortgage rates are related, but they do not move one for one.
About Lendmire
As a mortgage broker (NMLS# 2371349), Lendmire arranges DSCR investor loans in 40 states plus Washington, D.C. — 41 markets — and, on its consumer platform, bank statement, home equity and down payment assistance financing in 16 states, through wholesale lenders. Lendmire never underwrites or funds a loan itself. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
1. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
2. Freddie Mac release, week of September 3, 2026
3. Freddie Mac release, week of September 17, 2026
4. Freddie Mac release, April 30, 2026
5. Freddie Mac release, February 19, 2026
6. MBA Newslink, September 23, 2026
7. Federal Reserve FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
8. CNBC, 10-year Treasury yield, September 28, 2026
9. MBA Weekly Applications Survey, September 23, 2026
10. MBA Weekly Applications Survey, July 1, 2026
11. NAR existing-home sales, July data
12. NAR existing-home sales, June data
13. HousingWire, existing-home sales, August 2026
14. WRE News
15. release
16. Inman, new-home sales and builder incentives, September 25, 2026
17. MCT market commentary, September 2026
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: Beat the Heat: Top Mortgage Tips for Buying Your Dream Home During the August Market Surge · Home Buying in 2024: 4 Items to Be Aware of · October Opportunities: How to Navigate the Mortgage Landscape for a Seamless Home Purchase Before Halloween
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
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Required disclosures. Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) operates as a licensed mortgage broker, not a direct lender or depository. The discussion in this article is general in nature and should not be relied upon as financial, legal, or tax advice — every investment scenario is unique and should be reviewed by a qualified professional. Any loan inquiry is subject to lender underwriting, and this article is not a commitment to lend or a guarantee of approval. Mortgage rates, loan terms, and program guidelines vary by borrower, property, and state, and may change without notice. Equal Housing Opportunity. Verify licensure at NMLS Consumer Access.