The Quick Read: As of September 28, 2026, mortgage rates have risen four straight weeks, and the Fed raised its target range on September 16. The monthly payment is now only one line on the bill. Taxes, insurance, upkeep and any floating-rate debt all need a place in the budget. One bright spot: Fannie Mae is set to follow Freddie Mac on proactive outreach to borrowers who may be able to cancel private mortgage insurance.
Eighteen years in lending taught me one habit worth passing on. When rates move, people stare at the rate. The rate is loud. The rest of the cost of owning a home is quiet, and it is where budgets break.
This column is national. It is not about any one city, and no single market’s numbers describe the country. Every figure below carries its source and date.
Key Takeaways
- Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, 2026, the fourth straight weekly increase.
- The Fed raised its target range on September 16 and set the base for floating-rate debt such as HELOCs and ARMs.
- Sales are slipping and supply is rising, which gives buyers some room to negotiate.
- Taxes, insurance and upkeep sit outside the loan payment. Budget for them before you shop.
- Fannie Mae’s PMI outreach is a start, not automatic cancellation.
What changed in September
Rates climbed every week this month. Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, up from 6.95% the week before. A year earlier the 30-year average sat noticeably lower. Freddie Mac’s survey for that same week put the 15-year at 6.42%, up from 6.26% the week before.
Line up the weekly readings from Freddie Mac’s releases. It was 6.66% on August 27, then 6.71% on September 3, 6.76% on September 10, 6.95% on September 17 and 7.03% on September 24. That is four increases in a row and about 37 basis points in total. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point.
The jump on September 17 was the big one, 19 basis points in a single week.
The Mortgage Bankers Association sees the same direction. Its weekly survey for the week ending September 18, released September 23, put its 30-year conforming contract rate at 7.12%, up from 6.97%. Total applications fell 1.5%. The Refinance Index fell 3% and sat 62% below a year earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index was 11% below a year ago.
Different surveys, different numbers. Freddie’s survey is built on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing purchase loans for borrowers with 20% down and excellent credit. The MBA measures something else. Mortgage News Daily’s index, a daily reading, showed the 30-year at 7.43% on September 25. None of these is a quote. They are three yardsticks, and you should not compare one against another. Exact terms depend on the lender’s guidelines, property type, leverage, and a full review of the borrower’s file.
Why are rates rising?
Start with the Fed, then correct a common mistake. The Federal Reserve’s statement on September 16 said the Committee voted 12–0 to raise the target range by a quarter point, to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. It also said inflation remains elevated. CNBC reported it was the first hike in more than three years, and that 16 of 18 participants expect another increase.
The Fed does not set mortgage rates. Its move hits short-term borrowing directly. Mortgage rates follow longer-term yields, and those were rising before the meeting. The MBA’s chart of the week put the 10-year Treasury near 5.2%, against about 4% in February. It blamed energy prices from the war in Iran, higher inflation, expected tighter policy, stronger growth and rising federal debt. For the official close, the Treasury’s daily yield curve page is the place to check.
What is the housing market doing?
Slowing, but not collapsing. NAR’s report on August existing-home sales, released September 10, showed sales down 2.0% from July and 1.2% from a year earlier, at an annual pace of 3.98 million. Supply rose to 4.9 months, up from 4.6 in July. The median price was $429,100, up 1.6% from a year earlier, the 38th straight annual gain.
That combination matters. Prices are still rising on a year-over-year basis. Sales and supply are moving first. Inventory rose to 1.62 million units in August from 1.54 million in July, per NAR’s July report.
Buyers are also changing products. The MBA’s economist said the adjustable-rate share of applications reached 9.8%, per the MBA Newslink summary dated September 29. The same summary said refinancing fell to its slowest pace since February 2025.
The next data point is NAR’s September report, due October 13.
What does it mean for home buyers?
The payment is only part of the bill. That is my main point this month.
A rate move changes principal and interest. It does nothing about the rest of what owning costs. Here is the list I would put in front of any buyer:
- Property taxes. They reset on the local government’s schedule, not the Fed’s.
- Homeowners insurance. It has been the fastest-growing piece of the payment. ICE’s September 2025 report, now background, said insurance rose 11.3% year over year and nearly 70% over five and a half years. Cotality projected premiums rising about 8% in 2026 and another 8% in 2027, per Fox Business in November 2025. I found no current national data for the past 45 days, so treat those as direction, not as today’s reading.
- Private mortgage insurance. Buyers with a smaller down payment usually carry it until the loan is reviewed for cancellation.
- Upkeep. Roofs, water heaters and furnaces do not care about the rate.
- Floating-rate debt. The Fed’s hike sets the base for HELOCs, ARMs and credit lines. The Fed also raised the interest rate paid on reserve balances to 3.90 percent, effective September 17, per its implementation note. Any balance that floats will feel that. I have not found a source stating the resulting HELOC or prime-rate figure, so I won’t guess one.
Home equity deserves its own line. ICE’s August Mortgage Monitor, background at this point, said mortgage-holder equity hit a record $18 trillion in the second quarter. Its June report said 54% of first-quarter equity extraction came through second liens, as owners kept their low first-mortgage rates. That strategy has a catch. A second lien that floats gets more expensive when the Fed hikes.
Is the PMI news real relief?
Real, but small and not yet dated. HousingWire reported that FHFA Director Bill Pulte said Fannie Mae will align with Freddie Mac’s policy. Lenders and servicers may contact borrowers who could qualify to cancel private mortgage insurance when values rise or balances fall. Fannie Mae said it looks forward to working with FHFA on outreach to borrowers whose homes have appreciated.
Read the fine print. Homes.com reported that Pulte gave no implementation date and no estimate of homeowner savings. A trade write-up from WRE News says the change concerns outreach, not automatic cancellation, and that existing eligibility, payment-history and valuation rules still apply. That is a secondary source, so check your servicer’s guidance. An analyst quoted by HousingWire expects uptake to be modest.
The scale is not small, though. Yahoo Finance reported that around 800,000 borrowers used PMI to buy homes last year. If you pay PMI and your home has gained value, call your servicer now. Don’t wait for a letter.
My take
Rates are the headline. Ownership costs are the story.
My read: the market is telling buyers to slow down and do the full math. That is healthy. Supply is at 4.9 months, the highest in over ten years by NAR’s economist, though I only have that through a secondary write-up. Sellers are noticing. NAR says ample supply gives buyers better chances to negotiate, again via a secondary summary.
I would not read 7% as a permanent state. The MBA forecasts rates averaging close to 6.8% in the coming quarters. It also lowered its 2026 and 2027 origination forecasts. But the weekly figures sit above that forecast today, and I can’t tell you when the gap closes. Sixteen of 18 Fed participants expect another hike. Sources differ on timing. I’d plan for the range, not the forecast.
One more opinion. Waiting for the spring of 2021 to come back is not a plan. Buyers who move well right now price the whole house, not just the loan.
What I’d do now
None of this is advice to buy or sell. It is the checklist I’d use.
1. Budget the whole house. Ask for taxes and insurance estimates on the actual property before you fall in love with it. Add an upkeep reserve.
2. Get insurance quotes early. Insurance is the line most likely to change your math. Get quotes before you are committed.
3. Learn what floats. If you carry a HELOC or a line of credit, or you are looking at an ARM, know what it is tied to. The Fed just moved that base.
4. Compare quotes from the same day. Rates move daily. Quotes gathered a week apart are not comparable. When you have a quote you like and the deal is firm, lock it. A rate lock is a lender’s promise to hold a rate for a set period. Floating means you have not locked and accept the risk of a move.
5. Use your negotiating room. Rising supply gives you leverage on price, repairs or closing help. Use it.
6. Check your PMI. If you already pay it, ask your servicer what it would take to cancel.
Programs matter here too. Some buyers qualify on documents that fit a self-employed income, and some on rental income. The loan options page carries the current guidelines, subject to lender guidelines. If your down payment is a gift or comes from a business, the sourcing rules differ, and I’ve written about gift funds versus business funds for the self-employed. If you own a practice and are thinking about a refinance, it helps to compare a rate-and-term refinance with a cash-out refinance if your loan is a jumbo.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file.
For the end-to-end picture of how these loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is 7% the mortgage rate I’ll get?
No. The 7.03% figure is Freddie Mac’s weekly average for the week of September 24, built on borrowers with 20% down and excellent credit. Your own quote depends on your credit, down payment, loan type and the day you lock. Treat published averages as a direction gauge. Every figure here varies by lender and program — guidelines, property type, leverage, and credit profile all apply.
Did the Fed’s hike raise my fixed mortgage rate?
Not directly. A fixed rate on an existing loan does not change. The hike matters most for floating debt such as HELOCs, ARMs and credit lines. New mortgage rates follow longer-term yields, and those were already climbing before September 16.
Will home prices fall because rates rose?
Not on the latest data. NAR’s August report showed the median existing-home price at $429,100, up 1.6% from a year earlier. Sales and supply are shifting first. ICE, in its August report, said price acceleration may be limited in the second half.
Is PMI going away automatically?
No. The FHFA and Fannie Mae change concerns outreach, not automatic cancellation. Existing eligibility, payment-history and valuation rules still apply, and no implementation date has been given. If you pay PMI, ask your servicer what it takes to cancel.
Should I wait for rates to drop?
I can’t time that, and neither can anyone else. The MBA expects rates near 6.8% in coming quarters, but the weekly readings are above that today. If you buy, price the full cost of owning, and you can revisit financing later if conditions change. Waiting only makes sense if your budget still works at today’s rates.
About Lendmire
Lendmire, NMLS# 2371349, is a mortgage broker with two platforms: DSCR investor lending across 41 markets, including Washington, D.C., and consumer mortgage programs in 16 states, all arranged through wholesale lending partners. This column is written by Lendmire’s founder and reflects the market as of its publication date; program terms and availability are set by the lender on each file. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
1. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
2. Freddie Mac release, week of September 3
3. Freddie Mac release, week of September 10
4. Freddie Mac release, week of September 17
5. MBA Weekly Applications Survey, September 23, 2026
6. Federal Reserve FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
9. NAR August existing-home sales
10. NAR July existing-home sales
12. Fox Business on homeowners insurance costs
13. HousingWire on PMI outreach
14. Homes.com on Fannie Mae and PMI
15. WRE News
16. Yahoo Finance on PMI cancellation
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: How to Budget for Homeownership: Beyond the Mortgage Payment · 5 Benefits of Regular Home Maintenance · The Value Of Hardscaping At Your Home
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
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Required disclosures. Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) operates as a licensed mortgage broker, not a direct lender or depository. The discussion in this article is general in nature and should not be relied upon as financial, legal, or tax advice — every investment scenario is unique and should be reviewed by a qualified professional. Any loan inquiry is subject to lender underwriting, and this article is not a commitment to lend or a guarantee of approval. Mortgage rates, loan terms, and program guidelines vary by borrower, property, and state, and may change without notice. Equal Housing Opportunity. Verify licensure at NMLS Consumer Access.