The Quick Read: As of September 28, 2026, buyers have more choices and less budget than they did a year ago. Resale supply is at its highest in over a decade, builders are discounting, and mortgage rates have climbed for four straight weeks. A quick sale now comes from pricing to today’s comparable sales and matching what the new-home builders down the road offer. Fresh paint won’t do it.
I’ve spent eighteen years in lending, and the sellers who struggle in a market like this are the ones still pricing off last spring. Here is what changed, what it means if you’re sitting on equity, and what I’d do about it.
Key takeaways
- Existing-home sales slowed in August, and months of supply rose to 4.9, per NAR’s report of September 10, 2026.
- Freddie Mac’s 30-year average rose four straight weeks, through the week of September 24, 2026.
- Builders are cutting prices and stacking incentives. Your buyer is comparing your house to theirs.
- Price to current comps and think in total buyer cost, not just the list price.
- If you plan to buy again after you sell, the financing side deserves attention before you list.
What changed?
Sales slowed and supply grew. NAR’s August existing-home sales report, released September 10, 2026, showed sales down 2.0% from July and 1.2% from a year earlier. The seasonally adjusted annual pace came in at 3.98 million.
Inventory reached 1.62 million homes, up 5.9% from August 2025. Months of supply hit 4.9, up from 4.6 in July. Months of supply is how long the current inventory would take to sell at the current sales pace. NAR’s chief economist said it was the highest in over ten years and gives buyers better chances to negotiate.
Rates did the rest. Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, 2026. That was up from 6.95% the week before and 6.30% a year earlier. Four straight weekly gains took it from 6.66% to 7.03%, about 37 basis points in a month. (A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.)
The Mortgage Bankers Association tells the same story from a different angle. Its survey for the week ending September 18, 2026, released September 23, showed purchase applications 11% below a year earlier, unadjusted. The MBA’s 30-year contract rate for that week sat above the level Freddie Mac’s survey reported, and refinance activity was 62% lower than a year ago.
Why do the rate figures differ? Different surveys, different methods. Freddie’s number is a weekly average of purchase applications. The MBA’s is its own measure. Neither is a quote. Don’t blend them.
The Fed added pressure at the margin. In its September 16 statement, the FOMC voted 12–0 to raise the target range by 25 basis points, to 3.75%–4.00%. Mortgage rates track longer-term Treasury yields more than the overnight rate, though. Yields had already pushed higher before that meeting.
Why are builders suddenly your competition?
Because they have far more inventory to move than you do. The Census Bureau’s August new-home data shows 483,000 new homes for sale, an 8.5-month supply. Resale sits at 4.9. That gap makes builders the price-setters.
NAHB’s September builder survey shows how they’re using it. The sentiment index fell 3 points to 32, a 12-month low. Some 38% of builders cut prices, up from 35% in August, with an average cut of 6%. And 66% used incentives, up from 63%.
Incentives usually mean rate buydowns and help with closing costs. A buydown is money paid up front to lower a buyer’s interest cost for a period or for the life of the loan. Most resale sellers don’t offer one.
So here is the buyer’s view. They see a new home with a price cut, a buydown and closing-cost help. Then they see your home at last spring’s price with nothing attached. Guess which one they call about.
That doesn’t mean you must match the builder dollar for dollar. You can’t, and you needn’t. It means you should know what’s on offer near you and decide deliberately what you’ll answer with.
What does it mean for homeowners with equity?
You still have the equity. That part hasn’t changed. NAR’s median existing-home price was $429,100 in August, up 1.6% from a year earlier. Prices haven’t collapsed. Softer here means slower and more negotiable.
But the sources don’t fully agree, and I’d rather say so. NAR’s median sale price is still rising year over year. Realtor.com’s list-price measure, as reported in its August report released in early September, showed the national median list price at $424,500, down 1.3% from a year earlier. That was the tenth straight month of annual declines. One measures what closed, the other what’s asked. The gap tells you sellers are trimming.
The same Realtor.com report found 20.4% of active listings carried price reductions, and delistings were down 12.6% from a year earlier. Fewer sellers are pulling their homes and waiting. More are cutting the price and staying.
Redfin’s August data, reported September 23, adds color. Seller concessions topped 50% of sales in its top ten metros, mostly in Sun Belt markets. Treat that as color, not a national norm. Your local numbers matter far more than any national one.
Many owners also hold a very low first mortgage and hate the idea of giving it up. ICE’s data, as reported by CBS News in September, shows homeowners tapping equity through second liens and HELOCs rather than selling. Second liens were 54% of first-quarter equity extraction. If you don’t need to move, that’s a real alternative worth weighing. If you do need to move, the rate you’d give up is a sunk cost, not a reason to overprice.
My take
Sellers are fighting the last war. In 2024 I’d have told you a clean listing and good photos moved a house. Today the first question a buyer asks is what the house costs all in, against the new one across town.
Here is my read, and it is only my read. Pricing does most of the work in this market, and cosmetics account for the rest. A fresh coat of paint on a house priced above the current rent and sale comps sits longer than a scuffed house priced right. Buyers can’t negotiate around a number that ignores the market.
I also think many sellers are waiting for a rate drop that the current data doesn’t promise. Yields have been climbing and the Fed just raised. Markets may price further moves. I don’t know where rates go from here, and neither does anyone else. If your plan needs rates to fall, that isn’t a plan.
Thinking out loud on one point: is it smarter to cut the price or offer a concession? It’s close to a toss-up. A price cut is clean and shows up in every search filter. A concession, like help with closing costs, costs you less on paper and can matter more to a stretched buyer. Which one wins depends on your local buyer pool. Your listing agent can tell you what’s closing near you.
What I’d do now
Price to the comps that closed, not the ones you wish had. Look at homes sold in the past few weeks, in your neighborhood, with similar condition. Give the newest sales the most weight. Older sales reflect a market that no longer exists.
Look up the builders near you. Check which ones have finished homes ready to move into. Find their current offers. You’re competing with those, whether you like it or not.
Decide what you’ll offer before the first showing. Do you want to hold price and give a concession, or cut price and skip the concession? Pick a plan. Sellers who decide under pressure after weeks on the market usually give up more.
Fix what an inspector will flag, skip what they won’t. Condition matters when buyers have a nearby alternative that is brand new. Deferred maintenance gives them a reason to ask for a bigger discount. Cosmetic upgrades rarely return what they cost right now.
Think about the buy side before you list. Many sellers are also buyers. If you’re moving, your next financing matters as much as your sale. Buyers also come in different shapes: some are salaried, some self-employed, some investors. Programs differ on what they qualify a borrower on, and the loan options page carries the current guidelines, subject to lender guidelines. It’s worth understanding the fit before you’re under contract, not after.
If you like a quote, lock it. A rate lock holds a quoted rate for a set period while your loan is processed. Floating means leaving it unlocked and taking whatever the market does. With yields rising four weeks running, floating is a bet, and it’s your call to make. And keep in mind that quotes gathered on different days aren’t comparable. The market moved between them.
It’s a different decision, with its own risks.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file.
For the end-to-end picture of how DSCR loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is now a bad time to sell my house?
Not automatically. It’s a harder time to sell at an ambitious price. NAR’s August report shows the median existing-home price still up 1.6% from a year earlier, so equity is intact. But months of supply is 4.9, and buyers have more choices. Sell now if you need to, and price for the market you have.
Should I match what the builders are offering?
Match the value, not the dollars. Builders can afford rate buydowns and closing-cost help on a large volume of homes. You may not have that room. A price cut, a closing-cost credit, or both can put you in the same conversation. Start by learning what the builders near you are doing.
Will mortgage rates fall if I wait until spring?
Nobody can say. Freddie Mac’s survey rose four straight weeks through September 24, 2026, and the Fed raised its target range on September 16. Markets could shift either way. Waiting for a lower rate is a gamble on something outside your control.
Why did existing-home sales slow if prices are still rising?
Because the price NAR reports reflects homes that closed at earlier agreed prices, and because higher-priced sales weigh on the median. Sales volume reacts faster to rates and budgets than prices do. A published report is due October 13, 2026, and will show whether the slowdown continued.
Is a HELOC a smarter move than selling?
It depends on why you’re considering a move. If you love the house and your first mortgage is low, borrowing against equity can make sense. If you need a different home, a HELOC doesn’t solve that. It also adds a payment, so weigh it carefully with a professional.
About Lendmire
Lendmire, NMLS# 2371349, is a mortgage broker with two platforms: DSCR investor lending across 41 markets, including Washington, D.C., and consumer mortgage programs in 16 states, all arranged through wholesale lending partners. This column is written by Lendmire’s founder and reflects the market as of its publication date; program terms and availability are set by the lender on each file. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
1. NAR, August existing-home sales
2. Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey
3. Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
4. NAHB, September builder sentiment
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: Preparing Your Home for A Successful Sale · Using Technology to Market Your Home · Is Spring the Right Time to List Your Home? Here’s What to Consider
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
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Compliance and disclosures. Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) is a licensed mortgage broker and is not a direct lender, depository institution, financial advisor, or tax professional. Content in this article is general market analysis and educational information — not financial, legal, or tax advice for any specific situation. Lendmire does not guarantee loan approval; every transaction is subject to underwriting by the funding lender. Mortgage pricing and loan program guidelines are subject to change at any time without notice and vary by borrower characteristics, property type, and state regulations. Lendmire complies with Equal Housing Opportunity. Licensure verification: NMLS Consumer Access.