The Quick Read: As of September 28, 2026, a budget you set in early September is probably out of date. The Fed raised its target range by a quarter point on September 16, and Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed average at 7.03% for the week of September 24. That is up 32 basis points from the early-September level. Re-run your numbers against today’s rates, and test what your monthly payment can absorb before you make an offer.
I’m writing this as of September 28, 2026, and I’ll give you the dated facts first, then my opinion, then a short list of what I’d do.
Key Takeaways
- The FOMC voted 12–0 on September 16 to raise the target range by a quarter point, to 3.75%–4.00%.
- Freddie Mac’s 30-year average has risen five weeks in a row by its published figures, and the latest print is above 7%.
- The 10-year Treasury yield, which mortgage rates follow more closely than the Fed’s rate, has climbed to levels not seen since 2007.
- Purchase demand is weaker and inventory is higher, so you may have more room to negotiate on price.
- A pre-approval is a snapshot. If it was built on early-September rates, re-test it.
What Changed
The Fed moved, and it may not be done. On September 16, the FOMC voted 12–0 to raise the target range by a quarter point, to 3¾ to 4 percent. The new range took effect September 17. CNBC described it as the first increase since July 2023. In the Fed’s projections, 16 of 18 participants expected another hike.
Mortgage rates have been rising for weeks. Here is the run of Freddie Mac’s weekly 30-year averages, from the brief’s chain of released figures:
- 6.66% on August 27.
- 6.71% for the week of September 3.
- 6.76% for September 10.
- 6.95% for September 17, the first survey after the hike, up 19 basis points.
- 7.03% for September 24, up another 8 basis points.
A year earlier the same survey read 6.30%, so the average is up 73 basis points year over year. Some coverage counted a different number of straight increases, depending on where it started the clock. Whatever the count, the direction is not in doubt.
Freddie Mac’s number is a weekly average of loan pricing from the prior Thursday through Wednesday. It lags. It also describes conventional, conforming purchase loans for borrowers with 20% down and excellent credit. It is not a personal quote. Terms vary by lender guidelines, property type, leverage, credit profile, and full file review.
A same-day index runs higher. Mortgage News Daily’s index read 7.50% for the 30-year fixed on September 28, up 0.07 from the prior day. That sits about 47 basis points above Freddie Mac’s latest print. The gap is methodology: a same-day index against a lagged weekly average. Both point the same way.
The 10-year Treasury is the real driver. On September 28, CNBC reported the 10-year yield up more than 5 basis points at 5.234% intraday. Earlier in September it traded just below 4.8%. That is a rise of roughly 40 basis points in a few weeks. CNBC’s September 25 report said the yield had touched its highest level since June 2007 the day before.
Application data confirms the squeeze. The MBA’s survey for the week ending September 18, released September 23, showed total applications down 1.5%. The unadjusted Purchase Index was 11% lower than a year earlier. The Refinance Index was 62% lower than a year earlier. The MBA’s average contract rate for 30-year conforming loans rose to 7.12% from 6.97%.
Did the Fed Set My Mortgage Rate?
No. The Fed sets a short-term target. Mortgage rates track longer-term yields, and the 10-year Treasury is the gauge to watch.
The proof is in the sequence. CNBC’s headline on the day after the decision noted that Treasury yields moved lower after the Fed started hiking. Then yields surged later in the week. A reader who assumed the Fed’s quarter point passed straight into a mortgage rate would have misread both moves.
Why does this matter for your budget? Because the Fed is not the only thing pushing your cost of borrowing. CNBC cited hawkish comments from a Fed governor, stubbornly high oil and a strong PMI report as drivers of the recent yield jump. The CME FedWatch tool showed a 64% chance of an October hike as of CNBC’s September 26 report. Markets can move on any of those, and your budget moves with them.
Analysts don’t agree on what comes next. ING strategists, per CNBC on September 25, said enough hike fears may already be priced in. They also said debt dynamics keep upward pressure on yields. I’d plan for rates to stay elevated and treat any relief as a bonus.
What It Means for Home Buyers
Your financing cost is up, but the market may give you something back. Rates are higher and purchase applications are weaker. Inventory is rising.
NAR’s August report, released September 10, showed existing-home sales down 2.0% from July and 1.2% from a year earlier. Supply stood at 4.9 months. The median existing-home price was $429,100, up 1.6% from a year earlier, the 38th straight annual gain. NAR also put the August average rate at 6.67%, up from 6.54% in July.
Prices are not falling nationally. Don’t let a headline talk you into thinking your budget is fine because prices are soft. The new-home picture is different. Census data released September 24 showed the median new-home price at $393,700, 5.8% below August 2025. The same release showed a sales pace of 684,000, up 6.4% from July. Inman reported that the gain was not statistically significant. It also reported that 38% of builders cut prices and 66% used incentives in September, per NAHB and a large national bank.
On the resale side, HousingWire’s data for the week ending September 18 showed 86 homes going under contract per 100 new listings, down from 96 the prior week and 97 a year earlier. It showed 42.1% of active listings with a price cut, against 41.5% a year earlier. Different outlets measure price cuts differently, so don’t compare that share to a monthly figure from another source.
Put it together. Sellers face a softer market. You face a higher financing cost. The two partly offset, which is exactly how Realtor.com framed it: buyers trading rate pain for price savings. Whether that trade works for you depends on your payment tolerance, not on a headline.
Why Your Old Pre-Approval May Be Stale
A pre-approval is a lender’s read of your file at a point in time. It reflects the rates and prices of that day. Rates have moved since.
Here’s a plain hypothetical, not a quote and not a prediction. If a rate moves from 6.7% to 7.0%, the change is 30 basis points. On the same loan size, that is a meaningfully higher monthly cost. The size of the effect depends on the loan, but the direction is fixed.
Four weeks before Freddie Mac’s September 24 print, the 30-year average was 6.66%. Today’s figure is 37 basis points higher. If your budget was built in early September, the cost of borrowing has moved under you. This is my own framing of what the data implies, not a sourced statistic.
The point is not that you can no longer buy. The point is that the number on your letter and the number you can comfortably live with are two different things.
My Take
I think the worst response to this market is to freeze. The second worst is to chase the biggest number a lender will approve.
My read: the pre-approval amount answers a question about risk. Can this file be placed? Your budget answers a different question. What payment can you carry for years if rates stay here, or go higher? Those are not the same number, and in a rising-rate month the gap between them widens.
I also think many buyers are treating the Fed hike as the event and the mortgage rate as an echo. It’s the other way around. The 10-year yield is doing the work, and it has been doing it for weeks. The Fed’s move was one input among several.
Is this a peak? Honestly, the sources split. Markets price a good chance of another hike. The Fed’s own projections lean the same way. Some strategists think much of it is already in the price. I don’t know, and nobody reliably does. That is the argument for building a budget that survives a worse month than this one.
One more opinion. Waiting for rates to fall is a bet, and it’s worth saying so plainly. Realtor.com’s report from September 10 named the week of September 27 to October 3 as the most favorable balance of inventory, prices and competition. Its Hannah Jones said rates are “still elevated” and offer little financing relief. A good week for negotiation is not a good week for rates. Know which one you’re buying.
What I’d Do Now
1. Re-run the pre-approval against today’s market. Ask for an updated review, not a reassurance. Tell the loan officer you want the budget tested against current rates, not the early-September level.
2. Set your own ceiling first. Pick the payment you can absorb with room left for repairs, insurance changes and everything else. Work backward from that. Treat the pre-approval as a cap, not a target.
3. Stress-test it. Ask what happens to your budget if rates are higher when you lock. The Fed’s projections and the October odds suggest that is a live possibility. If the answer makes you uncomfortable, adjust the price range now, not after you’ve fallen for a house.
4. Understand the mechanics of a lock. A rate lock holds your rate for a set period so a rising market can’t move it between agreement and settlement. Floating means you don’t lock and accept whatever the market does. If a payment works for you, lock it. If you need a lower payment to feel safe, locking doesn’t change the math, and you should revisit the price instead.
5. Compare quotes on the same day. A quote from last week and a quote from today are not comparable when the 10-year moved more than 5 basis points in a single session. Gather them together, same day, same assumptions.
6. Use the softer market. Higher inventory and widespread price cuts may give you negotiating room, including on price and on seller credits. NAR’s August report pointed to better opportunities to negotiate. Use that room to offset financing cost, subject to what your lender and the seller will accept.
7. Look at the full range of programs. Not every file fits a standard conforming loan. If you’re self-employed or your income is hard to document the usual way, there are programs that qualify on bank deposits, assets or other evidence of income. Our loan options page carries the current guidelines, subject to lender guidelines. If your income is hard to document, I’d also read this piece on timing an asset-depletion mortgage before you set a price range.
Market context for non-traditional borrowers: Optimal Blue lock data, relayed by Stacker on September 28, shows conforming loans held 47% of rate-lock volume in August. That is the largest category, but no longer a majority. The mix of loan types is fragmenting. That’s a data point, not advice to choose any one product.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file.
Is a Refinance or a HELOC Worth Considering?
Probably not as a rate play. The MBA’s Refinance Index was 62% lower than a year earlier for the week ending September 18. Rate-and-term refinance demand has largely dried up, and that makes sense with the 30-year average at 7.03%.
Home equity lines are a different animal. They are tied to prime, and big banks raised prime from 6.75% to 7% after the Fed’s move, as reported around September 17. A variable line follows that. If you’re carrying a balance, a hike in prime shows up in your cost. The CFPB’s HELOC page explains how these lines work in plain terms.
For the end-to-end picture of how these loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is my pre-approval still good after the Fed hike?
It may still be valid on paper, but it may not match today’s market. Rates have risen since early September, so ask your loan officer to re-test your file against current conditions. Then decide whether the budget on the letter is still the budget you want.
Is 7.03% the rate I’ll get?
No. Freddie Mac’s 7.03% for the week of September 24 describes conventional, conforming purchase loans for borrowers with 20% down and excellent credit. The MBA’s contract rate was 7.12% for the week ending September 18. Mortgage News Daily’s index read 7.50% on September 28. Individual quotes vary with the borrower, the property and the loan. Exact terms depend on the lender’s guidelines, property type, leverage, and a full review of the borrower’s file.
Should I wait for rates to come down?
That is a bet, not a plan. Markets priced a 64% chance of an October hike as of CNBC’s September 26 report, and strategists disagree on whether it’s priced in. If you can carry the payment at today’s level and the house fits, waiting adds risk. If you can’t, adjust the price range instead of hoping.
Are home prices falling?
Not nationally. NAR’s median existing-home price was $429,100 in August, up 1.6% from a year earlier, the 38th straight annual gain. New-home prices are down, with price cuts and incentives common among builders. Weak resale demand has given buyers more negotiating room, but it hasn’t produced a national price decline.
When does the next existing-home sales report come out?
NAR’s September report is due October 13, 2026. It will show whether the August dip in sales was a blip or the start of a trend. Check it before you read too much into any one month.
About Lendmire
As a mortgage broker (NMLS# 2371349), Lendmire arranges DSCR investor loans in 40 states plus Washington, D.C. — 41 markets — and, on its consumer platform, bank statement, home equity and down payment assistance financing in 16 states, through wholesale lenders. Lendmire never underwrites or funds a loan itself. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
Get Started
Ready to find the right loan for you?
In about 30 seconds you can review financing options available for your home or investment property. No commitment required.
Informational only. Not a Loan Estimate, approval, or commitment to lend. Program availability and eligibility are subject to lender guidelines, credit approval, property review, and underwriting.
References
1. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
2. Federal Reserve FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
3. CNBC, Fed decision, September 16, 2026
4. Freddie Mac release, September 17, 2026
5. CNBC, Treasury yields, September 28, 2026
6. MBA Weekly Applications Survey, September 23, 2026
7. NAR August existing-home sales, September 10, 2026
8. Inman, new-home sales, September 25, 2026
9. Stacker via KEYT, Optimal Blue lock data, September 28, 2026
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: Financial Prep For Homebuying After The Fed’s September Rate Hike · Building Your Credit While The Fed Hikes And Mortgage Rates Climb: September 2026 · How Long It Takes To Buy A House While Rates Rise Through September?
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
- Mortgage Loan Originator · NMLS# 1129696 · Verify on NMLS Consumer Access
- North Carolina Real Estate Broker · License# 343312 · Verify on NCREC
- North Carolina Insurance Producer · License# 19053198 · Property, Casualty, Life, Health · Verify on NAIC SBS
- Lendmire LLC · Firm NMLS# 2371349 · Verify firm licensure
Compliance and disclosures. Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) is a licensed mortgage broker and is not a direct lender, depository institution, financial advisor, or tax professional. Content in this article is general market analysis and educational information — not financial, legal, or tax advice for any specific situation. Lendmire does not guarantee loan approval; every transaction is subject to underwriting by the funding lender. Mortgage pricing and loan program guidelines are subject to change at any time without notice and vary by borrower characteristics, property type, and state regulations. Lendmire complies with Equal Housing Opportunity. Licensure verification: NMLS Consumer Access.