The Quick Read: As of September 28, 2026, buyers have more homes to pick from and more room to negotiate, but mortgage rates have risen four weeks running. That mix punishes mistakes. In this market, the right agent is the one who can read your local numbers, push on price and credits, and handle builder incentives. Finding a door to open matters much less than it did.
Key Takeaways
- Existing-home supply reached 4.9 months in August, per NAR’s report dated September 10, 2026.
- Freddie Mac’s 30-year average rose four weeks in a row, ending at 7.03% for the week of September 24.
- Builders are cutting prices and leaning on incentives, per NAHB’s September survey.
- National averages hide local differences. Test any agent on your own street, price band and builder.
- Get your financing path sorted before you negotiate. That is where the real leverage gets used or lost.
What Changed This Month
Inventory is building while borrowing costs climb. Both moves landed in September, and they pull in opposite directions for a buyer.
Start with supply. NAR’s existing-home sales report, released September 10, showed inventory at 1.62 million homes in August. That is up 5.9% from a year earlier. It was the first time since November 2019 that inventory topped 1.6 million. Supply stood at 4.9 months, up from 4.6 in July. Sales slid 2.0% to an annual pace of 3.98 million. NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, said the supply is “giving homebuyers better opportunities to negotiate.”
Now the cost of money. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, up from 6.95% the week before. Three weeks earlier, the survey showed 6.71%. That is a 32 basis point climb in that stretch. A year ago the same survey read 6.30%. One caution: Freddie Mac’s survey covers conforming purchase loans for borrowers with 20% down and excellent credit. It is a market gauge, not a quote for any one buyer. Exact terms depend on the lender’s guidelines, property type, leverage, and a full review of the borrower’s file.
The MBA tells the same story from another angle. Its survey for the week ending September 18, released September 23, showed the purchase index 11% below a year earlier, unadjusted. Its 30-year conforming contract rate rose 15 basis points from the prior week, continuing the upward direction. Different surveys measure different loans, so don’t blend them.
The Fed added pressure. On September 16, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC statement announced a quarter-point increase in the target range, to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. The vote was 12–0. The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates directly. But its path feeds into long-term borrowing costs.
Then the builders. NAHB’s September survey, published September 16, showed builder confidence down three points to 32. Some 38% of builders cut prices, up from 35% in August. The average cut held at 6% for a sixth month. And 66% used sales incentives, up from 63%. NAHB’s chairman tied weak buyer traffic largely to rising mortgage rates.
New-home supply is heavier than resale supply. Census data released September 24 showed 8.5 months of new-home supply in August, down from 9.0 in July. Sales ran at 684,000, but Census margins of error are wide. The monthly gain is not statistically distinguishable from zero. I would not call it a rebound.
Does Rising Inventory Really Help Buyers?
Yes, in pockets. The national numbers show more choice and more willingness to deal. But a national average is not your market.
Yun himself made the point in NAR’s August release: national data shows stabilization, but there are notable local variations. New-home supply of 8.5 months is a different world from resale supply of 4.9 months. And NAR’s median price of $429,100 in August is still higher than a year ago. The declines show up in listing prices and new-home medians, not in the closed-sale median.
Demand hasn’t vanished either. Weekly Realtor.com data, as reported by a trade outlet on September 21, showed typical time on market at 61 days, one day faster than a year earlier, even as rates rose. So buyer leverage is real, but it is uneven. It varies by price band, by neighborhood and by whether the seller is a builder or a homeowner.
That is why the agent question matters now. In a tight market, an agent’s best skill is finding and landing scarce listings. In this one, the skill is judgment.
What a Good Agent Does Now
The job has shifted from access to analysis. Here is what I would want from an agent in this market.
Reads your street, not the headline. Ask for active listings, recent sales and price reductions in your exact price band and area. A good agent pulls this on the spot. A weak one recites national talking points. The national price-cut share even depends on whose tracker you read, so a serious agent names the source and the metric.
Negotiates more than price. With supply rising, leverage often shows up as repairs, credits, inspection terms and timing. Ask an agent to walk you through how their last several buyers fared on those points. Vague answers are an answer.
Understands the written agreement. Agents working through the MLS now need a written buyer agreement before touring homes, and compensation is negotiable. Read the term, the fee and the exit clause before you sign. Rules and practices vary by state and brokerage, so confirm the details with the agent and your state’s real estate regulator.
Knows how builders sell. This is the biggest gap I see between agents. A builder’s on-site sales rep works for the builder. Some builders have their own rules on when an outside agent must be registered, and policies differ from one builder to the next. Ask any agent you interview how they handle this, and raise it before your first visit to a model home.
New Construction: Read the Incentive Fine Print
Builder incentives are not free money. They are offers with conditions, and the conditions matter as much as the headline.
Rate buydowns and closing-cost help are the most common tools. HousingWire reported on September 24 that builders have been buying down rates and shifting to lower price points. A buydown can help a payment-sensitive buyer. But it is usually negotiated, and it may be tied to the builder’s preferred lender or title company. Whether that condition is required, and what it costs you in flexibility, varies by builder.
Here is how I would think about it. Incentives and base price are separate levers. A builder may prefer to give you credits over cutting the sticker price, because a lower sticker price can ripple through the rest of the community. So a credit and a price cut are not the same thing, even when the dollar value looks alike. An agent who has negotiated with that builder before can tell you which lever moves more.
This is also where financing and agent choice meet. If a builder’s offer depends on using its lender, you need an independent comparison to judge it. That is a job for a broker like me, not the agent. A broker can line up alternatives from several lenders so you can set them side by side. Our loan options page carries the current guidelines for the programs we place, subject to lender guidelines.
My Take
I think the buyers who win this fall are the prepared ones, not the lucky ones.
Here is my read. Buyers who waited for 2021 conditions are still waiting. The ones I’d bet on are pricing the purchase at today’s cost of borrowing and using the extra inventory to negotiate. That means an agent who will argue for credits, not just send listings.
I also think the “buyers have leverage” headline can push people into bad decisions. Leverage is not a reason to stretch. Rates have moved up roughly a third of a point in three weeks by Freddie Mac’s measure. If that pace continued, even a small move would add up across a loan’s life. I can’t tell you where rates go next. The bond market has been volatile, and the Fed has signaled it may not be done. Nobody can promise the direction.
One more opinion, and it’s a contrarian one. Don’t pick the agent with the biggest brand. Pick the one who can show you recent closed deals in your price range and explain each negotiation in plain words. Brand is noise. Recent, relevant results are signal.
What I’d Do Now
This is general guidance, not advice to buy or sell any particular home.
1. Interview at least two agents. Ask each one to pull local inventory, recent sales and price cuts for your price band, live.
2. Ask about builders by name. If you’re considering new construction, ask how they’ve dealt with that builder’s incentives and registration rules.
3. Read the buyer agreement slowly. Know the term, the fee and how you can exit.
4. Get your financing lined up before you make an offer. Compare options on the same day. Quotes gathered on different days are not comparable, because rates moved this month.
5. Understand locks. A rate lock holds your quoted terms for a set period, so a later market move doesn’t change them. If you like the deal and the payment works, lock it. Floating is a bet on the market, and this month the market moved against floaters.
6. Stress-test your budget. Run your numbers at a higher rate than today’s, not a lower one.
Investors and renters thinking about becoming owners have other paths worth considering. Renting can make you a better real estate investor, and renters can become investors themselves. Both ideas help frame the buy-or-wait decision.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file. Reach us at 828-256-2183 or request a quote.
For the end-to-end picture of how DSCR loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is this a buyer’s market right now?
Not everywhere, and not uniformly. NAR’s August report showed supply at 4.9 months, which is better for buyers than a year ago but still short of a flood. New-home supply is much heavier, at 8.5 months. Your local numbers decide how much leverage you have.
Should I wait for rates to fall before I buy?
I can’t predict rates, and neither can anyone else. Freddie Mac’s survey rose four weeks straight through September 24, and the Fed raised its target range on September 16. Waiting is a bet. A more useful question is whether the purchase works at today’s cost of borrowing with some cushion.
Does the buyer pay the agent extra on a new build?
Often the builder funds buyer-agent compensation from its sales budget, but practices vary by builder and state. Whether that shows up in the price is debated. Put the question to the agent in writing before you tour. Then read the buyer agreement carefully.
Should I use the builder’s preferred lender to get the incentive?
Sometimes the incentive is tied to that lender, and sometimes it isn’t. Ask for the terms in writing. Then compare the offer against independent options on the same day, so you can see what the incentive is actually worth.
Is the Freddie Mac rate what I will pay?
No. Freddie Mac’s survey reflects conforming loans for borrowers with 20% down and excellent credit. Your terms depend on your credit, down payment, property and loan type. The survey tells you the direction of the market, not your quote. Every figure here varies by lender and program — guidelines, property type, leverage, and credit profile all apply.
About Lendmire
Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) is a non-QM mortgage brokerage arranging DSCR investor loans in 41 markets — 40 states plus Washington, D.C. — and consumer mortgage programs, including bank statement, HELOC and down payment assistance options, in 16 states through wholesale lenders. Lendmire is the broker, never the lender; every file is underwritten by the lender under its own guidelines. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
1. NAR existing-home sales report for August, September 10, 2026
2. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
3. Federal Reserve FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: Choosing A Real Estate Agent In A September Market Tilting To Buyers · Buying A House Without An Agent In A Rising-rate September · Extras Included When You Buy Real Estate: September 2026 Buyer Leverage
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
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Disclosure information. Lendmire is a state-licensed mortgage brokerage under NMLS# 2371349. Lendmire is not a depository institution, direct lender, or financial advisor — all loans referenced are placed through wholesale lender partners and are subject to each lender's underwriting standards. This article is provided for general informational purposes and is not a commitment to lend, nor does it constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. Loan programs, terms, rates, and qualification standards change without notice and depend on borrower profile, property type, and the state in which the subject property is located. Equal Housing Opportunity provider. NMLS Consumer Access: nmlsconsumeraccess.org.