The Quick Read: As of September 28, 2026, buyers have more room to negotiate than they have had in years. Inventory and months of supply are up, and builders are cutting prices and handing out incentives. Rates have climbed four straight weeks, though, so judge every house on the monthly payment and on what the seller will give, not on list price alone.
Key Takeaways
- NAR’s report on September 10 showed existing-home inventory at 1.62 million, with supply at 4.9 months, the highest in over ten years.
- NAHB’s September survey found 38% of builders cutting prices and 66% using incentives.
- Freddie Mac’s 30-year average rose for four straight weeks, from 6.66% to 7.03%.
- More inventory does not mean falling prices. NAR’s median is still up from a year ago.
- Compare offers by payment, seller credits and buydowns. A lower list price is only one piece.
What Changed This Month
Rates moved up, and they moved in a line. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, 2026, up from 6.95% the week before. A year earlier it averaged 6.30%. That is a gap of 73 basis points, or about three-quarters of a point.
The four-week run, from Freddie Mac’s own releases, looks like this. The average was 6.71% on September 3, up 5 basis points. It was 6.76% on September 10, up another 5. It jumped to 6.95% on September 17, up 19. Then it hit 7.03% on September 24. Cumulatively that is roughly 37 basis points in four weeks.
The Fed added to the mood. On September 16, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC statement showed a 12–0 vote to raise the target range by a quarter point, to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. The statement says inflation remains elevated.
One caution. The Fed hike did not “set” your mortgage rate. Mortgage rates track long-term bond yields more than the overnight rate. CNBC reported on September 26 that the 10-year Treasury yield surged to 5.23%, its highest level since 2007. It was just below 4.8% earlier this month. That bond move is the bigger driver.
Also, a survey is not a quote. Freddie Mac’s survey covers conventional, conforming purchase loans with 20% down and excellent credit. A published survey put its 30-year conforming contract rate at 7.12% in its release of September 23, up from 6.97%. Different surveys measure different things, so the levels differ. Mortgage News Daily’s index closed at 7.43% on September 25, a single-day snapshot. Treat all of these as market gauges, not as what any one borrower will see. Terms vary by lender guidelines, property type, leverage, credit profile, and full file review.
Inventory keeps building. NAR’s August existing-home sales report, released September 10, showed sales down 2.0% from July, at a 3.98 million annual rate. Inventory reached 1.62 million, up 5.9% from a year earlier. That is the first time since November 2019 that it topped 1.6 million.
Supply was 4.9 months, up from 4.6 in July. NAR’s chief economist called it the highest level in over ten years and said the ample supply is giving homebuyers better opportunities to negotiate. The median price was $429,100, up 1.6% from a year earlier. That is the 38th straight month of year-over-year gains.
Builders are paying to move homes. NAHB’s September survey found 38% of builders cut prices, up from 35% in August. The average cut held at 6% for a sixth straight month. Some 66% used sales incentives, up from 63% and the highest share since December. Builder sentiment fell three points to 32, the weakest reading since September 2025. NAHB’s chairman said buyer traffic has weakened across much of the country, largely because of rising mortgage rates.
The Census Bureau’s new residential sales report, dated September 24, showed supply of new homes at 8.5 months, down from 9.0 in July. The median new-home price was $393,700. Be careful with the headline swings. One analysis of the release notes the monthly sales gain and the year-over-year price decline were not statistically distinguishable from zero. Don’t read “new-home prices are falling” into that.
What Does It Mean for Home Buyers?
You have leverage, but it is uneven. Selection is better than it has been in years, and sellers and builders know rates are working against them. Buyers, though, are feeling the payment squeeze too. The MBA’s release of September 23 showed the unadjusted purchase index 11% lower than a year ago and the refinance index 62% lower.
Price and payment are two different scoreboards. A builder who offers a rate buydown or closing-cost help is changing your payment, not necessarily the sticker price. A seller who cuts the price is changing the loan balance. Both help. They are not the same help, and they don’t always stack.
Here is a simple way to see it. If a rate moves from 6.75% to 7.75%, that is a full point. A 1.3% price cut on a house won’t offset a full point on the loan. Run both effects side by side before you decide which offer is better.
That is also why the “best week” talk needs a grain of salt. Realtor.com’s release names September 27 through October 3 as the best week of 2026 to buy, and says active listings remain about 11% below pre-pandemic levels nationally. Fewer competing buyers helps you. It does not make financing cheaper.
My Take
I think the headline is right and the conclusion many people draw from it is wrong.
The headline: buyers have leverage. Supply near five months, builders cutting, listings sitting. That is a real shift from the years when buyers waived everything to win a house.
The wrong conclusion: “prices are falling, so I should wait.” NAR’s median is still rising. Realtor.com’s weekly data, as relayed by WRE News, put the median listing price at $419,500 for the week ending September 19, down 1.3% from a year earlier. Those two figures don’t match, and they don’t have to. One tracks closed sales, the other tracks asking prices. Neither says the market is collapsing.
Price-cut numbers also depend on who counts them. Realtor.com’s August report put price reductions at 20.4% of active listings. Other trackers cite far higher shares on different definitions. Name the source and the metric before you repeat any of them. I’d trust the narrower, better-defined number.
The honest read is a market where sellers have lost some power but not all of it, and where financing costs are doing more damage to buyers than list prices are doing good. Rates are the swing factor. NAR’s chief economist has said the market would be thriving if rates returned near 6%. They haven’t.
One more thing on builders. Their margins are shrinking, per HousingWire’s reporting, which may limit how much further they can cut. The price of an incentive shows up somewhere. Ask what the house costs with the incentive and what it costs without it. Then ask if the incentive is tied to using a specific lender. If it is, compare that offer against outside financing before you sign.
What I’d Do Now
Start with the payment you can carry. Not the price you’d like to pay. Decide the monthly number first, then work backward. Rates moved a full 37 basis points in four weeks, so a budget built on a number from August is stale.
Ask for more than a price cut. In a market with 4.9 months of supply, sellers can afford to give on credits, repairs and timing. Builders are already offering buydowns and closing-cost help. Ask for the version that helps your payment most.
Compare quotes on the same day. A quote from Tuesday and a quote from Friday are not comparable in a week like the one that ended September 18, when the 30-year moved 19 basis points in a single survey. Get your comparisons on one day, with the same loan terms.
Know how a lock works. A rate lock is an agreement to hold a quoted rate for a set period, subject to the terms of the lock. If you like the payment and the deal is real, lock it. Floating is a bet that rates fall before you close. Given a 10-year yield at a 19-year high, I don’t like that bet for anyone whose budget is tight.
Think about whether your file fits a standard box. Self-employed buyers, investors and people with irregular income often qualify on different documents than a salaried buyer does. Our loan options page lays out the programs and carries the current guidelines, subject to lender guidelines. I don’t put program numbers in a column that gets old in a week.
Buying a second home or investing? The reserve and documentation rules can be tighter for those files. The piece on second-home bank statement loans and reserves explains why, in words, without dated figures.
Skip the timing game. Late September looks good on paper. But the Realtor.com “best week” is a national average. Your local market may not follow it. Watch the homes you actually want, not a national calendar.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file.
For the end-to-end picture of how DSCR loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are home prices falling in September 2026?
Not by the measure that matters most to closed sales. NAR’s August median was $429,100, up 1.6% from a year earlier. Asking prices tell a softer story: Realtor.com’s median listing price was down 1.3% for the week ending September 19. New-home prices look weaker, but the Census figures carry wide margins of error, so I wouldn’t read a trend into one month.
Why are mortgage rates rising when the Fed only moved a quarter point?
Mortgage rates follow long-term bond yields more than the Fed’s overnight rate. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.23% on September 26, from just below 4.8% earlier in the month. The Fed hike added to the pressure, but the bond market did most of the work.
Is a builder incentive better than a lower price?
It depends on what fits your budget. A price cut lowers the loan balance. A rate buydown or closing-cost credit lowers what you pay up front or each month. NAHB’s September survey found 66% of builders using incentives and 38% cutting prices, so many buyers can ask for both. Compare the two offers on total cost, not on the headline.
Should I wait for rates to come down before buying?
I can’t tell you where rates go, and neither can anyone else. Futures have priced more Fed hikes, per CNBC’s September 26 report. If the house works at today’s payment, buy it. If it only works at a lower rate, you are speculating. You can often revisit financing later. You can’t revisit the price you paid.
Does the Freddie Mac rate apply to self-employed buyers?
Not directly. The survey covers conventional, conforming loans with 20% down and excellent credit. Self-employed and investor borrowers often use other documentation paths, which our loan options page describes in words. Your own quote will depend on your file, subject to lender guidelines.
About Lendmire
As a mortgage broker (NMLS# 2371349), Lendmire arranges DSCR investor loans in 40 states plus Washington, D.C. — 41 markets — and, on its consumer platform, bank statement, home equity and down payment assistance financing in 16 states, through wholesale lenders. Lendmire never underwrites or funds a loan itself. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
1. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
2. Federal Reserve FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
3. NAR August existing-home sales report
4. NAHB September builder sentiment release
5. weekly data, as relayed by WRE News
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: How to Navigate the Homebuying Process: A Step-by-Step Guide for First-Time Buyers · How to Use a Mortgage Calculator to Plan Your Home Purchase · DSCR Loans in Shenandoah Valley, VA: Investor Financing for Winchester, Harrisonburg, and Front Royal STR and Long-Term Rental Markets
Brandon Miller
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Required disclosures. Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) operates as a licensed mortgage broker, not a direct lender or depository. The discussion in this article is general in nature and should not be relied upon as financial, legal, or tax advice — every investment scenario is unique and should be reviewed by a qualified professional. Any loan inquiry is subject to lender underwriting, and this article is not a commitment to lend or a guarantee of approval. Mortgage rates, loan terms, and program guidelines vary by borrower, property, and state, and may change without notice. Equal Housing Opportunity. Verify licensure at NMLS Consumer Access.