Spreadsheet That Is Fighting the Market — The Quick Read: Rates climbed for a fourth straight week as of September 25, 2026, and the borrowers hurting most right now are the ones who kept shopping instead of locking. The 30-year fixed averaged 7.03% for the week of September 24, per Freddie Mac’s PMMS, up from 6.95% the week before. If you’re gathering quotes across weeks while that number moves, you’re not comparing lenders. You’re comparing markets that no longer exist.
I’ve watched this happen from my desk more than once this year, and it’s worth walking through why the spreadsheet — the one with twenty or thirty lender quotes stacked in rows, collected over a month — is quietly working against the person who built it.
What Changed This Month
Rates went up four weeks running, and the climb has been steep, not gradual. Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 6.76% for the week of September 10, then 6.95% for the week of September 17, then 7.03% for the week of September 24 — a 27-basis-point move in two weeks alone, according to Freddie Mac’s PMMS. A year earlier, the same survey had the 30-year fixed at 6.30%. That’s a 73-basis-point swing over twelve months, and almost all of the damage happened recently.
The move isn’t isolated to mortgages. The Federal Reserve raised its target range a quarter point to 3.75%–4% on September 16, the first hike since 2023, according to the Federal Reserve’s FOMC statement. The 10-year Treasury yield — the benchmark that drives long-term mortgage pricing — has been climbing alongside it. Reporting on the FRED 10-Year Treasury series and other trackers put the yield at cycle highs in the 5.1%–5.2% range in the days around September 24. Nobody I know likes that trend. But you can’t argue with it, and you definitely can’t out-wait it with a spreadsheet.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey showed the same story from a different angle: applications fell 4.1% for the week ending September 11 as the average contract rate rose to 6.97%, and refinance applications were down 65% from a year earlier. Borrowers are pulling back because the cost of waiting just went up. Terms vary by lender guidelines, property type, leverage, credit profile, and full file review.
Key takeaways:
- Freddie Mac’s weekly rate rose four weeks straight, hitting 7.03% for the week of September 24, 2026.
- The 10-year Treasury sits near cycle highs, which is what’s actually pushing mortgage pricing up.
- The Fed raised rates on September 16 for the first time since 2023, and markets are pricing in at least one more move.
- A quote gathered three weeks ago describes a market that no longer exists.
- Shopping past a reasonable number of lenders costs more than it saves, in a market moving this fast.
What I’m Seeing on My Desk
I quoted a client about six months ago. He agreed the number was strong. He kept shopping anyway, hoping something better would turn up.
About three months later he came back. I quoted him again. The market had moved roughly half a point higher in that time. He kept shopping.
Another three months went by. He came back a third time. The market is now a full percentage point above where I first quoted him. He’s kicking himself for not locking the first time around.
That’s not a hypothetical. It’s a pattern the current rate environment tends to punish hardest. Once you’ve called a handful of reputable lenders, you know roughly where the market sits. Shopping past that point doesn’t get you a better deal. It gets you a worse one, because the market keeps moving while you’re still comparing rows on a sheet.
The Spreadsheet Problem, Specifically
Here’s the mechanism, plainly: we regularly see clients bring in a spreadsheet with quotes from twenty or thirty lenders, collected one lender one day, two more the next day, a couple more the day after that. Rates change daily. We’re in a rising-rate environment. Quotes gathered over two or three weeks are not measuring the same market — they’re measuring three or four different markets stitched together and mislabeled as one comparison.
I understand the instinct. Nobody wants to leave money on the table, and a spreadsheet feels like due diligence. But in a month like this one, the spreadsheet is fighting the market, and the market always wins that fight. Mortgage News Daily has made a related point about its own daily index versus Freddie Mac’s weekly survey: the weekly number is calculated from an average of rates across the prior five business days, so it’s already a blend of an older market and a newer one by the time it publishes. If a single week’s survey can blend two different rate environments, a spreadsheet built across a month is blending several.
The math on this is not subtle. Trying to save a couple hundred dollars can end up costing thousands. That’s the risk underpriced offers create when the spreadsheet lags the market by even a few days.
What It Means for Self-Employed Borrowers
Self-employed borrowers face a sharper version of this problem, because their files often take more back-and-forth to price accurately in the first place. A bank statement loan, which qualifies income from deposits rather than traditional personal-income documentation, tends to require more lender-specific underwriting judgment than a standard W-2 file — which means the quote you got from Lender An in week one and the quote you got from Lender C in week three aren’t just describing a different rate environment, they may reflect different reads on the same income documentation. Layering a moving market on top of that variability makes a thirty-lender spreadsheet even less useful as a comparison tool.
This is exactly the population growing fastest in non-QM right now. Recent industry reporting notes that non-QM growth this year has been led by DSCR loans and bank-statement programs for self-employed borrowers — not by weaker credit profiles chasing looser guidelines. In other words, the people shopping bank statement loan programs this fall are, on average, stronger borrowers than the stereotype suggests. That makes the shopping mistake more expensive, not less, because these are often larger loan amounts with more at stake per basis point.
As a broker, we work with the majority of DSCR lenders and the majority of bank statement lenders in the market, which means we already know where pricing tends to land on a given file type before a client starts calling around. That takes most of the shopping out of the equation before it starts. It doesn’t eliminate due diligence — it front-loads it.
My Take
Here’s my opinion, plainly stated: get a reasonable number of quotes — call it a handful of reputable lenders, research them first with a tool like ChatGPT, Claude, Google, or Perplexity if you want to vet reputations quickly — and then decide. Thirty or forty or fifty quotes gets you nowhere. It just guarantees you’re comparing markets that no longer match each other.
I think the instinct to keep shopping comes from a good place. Nobody wants to feel like they left money on the table. But in a market that’s added most of a point to the 30-year fixed in a matter of weeks, per Freddie Mac’s PMMS, the risk of shopping too long is bigger than the risk of shopping too little. That’s a genuine reversal from how this worked in a flat or falling-rate market, where patience paid. Right now patience costs money, and the client I mentioned above is the proof.
What I’d Do Now
If you’re actively shopping, cap it. Call a handful of reputable lenders — not thirty — compare, and lock when you find a number you’re comfortable with. Waiting for a materially better quote to show up on its own, in a market that’s risen four weeks straight, is a bet against the trend, and the trend has been clear since early September.
If you haven’t started shopping yet, don’t spread the process across a month. Compress it into a few days so the quotes you’re comparing are actually describing the same market moment. And if your income comes from self-employment or business ownership, ask early about how a given lender treats deposits versus traditional personal-income documentation — that variable matters more than an eighth of a point in rate, and it’s easier to sort out before you’ve committed weeks to comparing numbers that were never apples-to-apples in the first place.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how current bank statement loan programs fit your file, and how DSCR options compare for anyone financing rental property — our complete DSCR loans guide breaks down how that qualification works in more detail.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is now a bad time to shop for a mortgage?
Shopping isn’t the problem — shopping too long is. Rates have risen for four straight weeks according to Freddie Mac’s survey, so a quote from three weeks ago no longer reflects today’s market. Get a handful of quotes, compare them within a short window, and decide.
Why did my rate quote go up since I first called?
The broader rate environment moved. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey shows the 30-year fixed climbing from 6.76% to 7.03% across three weeks in September, driven largely by a rising 10-year Treasury yield and a Federal Reserve that raised rates on September 16 for the first time since 2023. A quote reflects the market on the day it’s given, not the day you eventually decide.
How many lenders should I actually get quotes from?
A handful is plenty. Research reputable lenders first, gather a small set of quotes close together in time, and make a decision. Thirty or forty quotes collected over weeks doesn’t sharpen your comparison — it blurs it, because the market underneath those quotes has already moved.
Does a bank statement loan work differently than a regular mortgage in a rising-rate market? The underlying rate risk is the same, but the underwriting timeline can add variability. Bank statement loans qualify income from deposits rather than traditional personal-income documentation, and that documentation review can take lenders more time to finalize a file — which matters more when the market is moving weekly. Current bank statement loan programs carry their own guidelines, worth reviewing directly.
Should self-employed borrowers wait for rates to come back down?
That’s a bet on timing, not a strategy. Applications and refinance volume have already dropped sharply as rates climbed, which tells you most of the market isn’t waiting it out. If your file works today, waiting on a rate call carries real risk given the trend since early September.
About Lendmire
Lendmire, NMLS# 2371349, is a mortgage broker with two platforms: DSCR investor lending across 41 markets, including Washington, D.C., and consumer mortgage programs in 16 states, all arranged through wholesale lending partners. This column is written by Lendmire’s founder and reflects the market as of its publication date; program terms and availability are set by the lender on each file. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
2. Federal Reserve — FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: Execution Beats Rate When Your Short-term Rental Is On The Line · DSCR Lending Has Its Moment — And Its Crowded Field · Three Consecutive Weekly Rate Rises — What That Streak Means
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
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Required disclosures. Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) operates as a licensed mortgage broker, not a direct lender or depository. The discussion in this article is general in nature and should not be relied upon as financial, legal, or tax advice — every investment scenario is unique and should be reviewed by a qualified professional. Any loan inquiry is subject to lender underwriting, and this article is not a commitment to lend or a guarantee of approval. Mortgage rates, loan terms, and program guidelines vary by borrower, property, and state, and may change without notice. Equal Housing Opportunity. Verify licensure at NMLS Consumer Access.