The Quick Read: As of September 28, 2026, more lenders are chasing investor loans while the 30-year average climbs. Your deposit is only as safe as the lender’s ability to execute. A lender that cannot deliver turns a small rate saving into a lost deposit. Shop for certainty first and price second, especially on short-term rentals.
Key Takeaways
- Freddie Mac’s survey has the 30-year fixed rising for at least four straight weeks, to its highest level since January 2025.
- DSCR and investor lock volume is up 130% since January 2022, and big lenders are moving into the product.
- No public data measures lender failures or lost deposits in DSCR. The risk I describe here is my inference, not a measured trend.
- A deposit is at risk when the lender cannot perform inside your contract deadlines. Price differences rarely justify that bet.
- Get lender capacity questions answered before you go hard on a deposit.
What Changed
Rates jumped, and they did it in steps. Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, 2026. The prior week was 6.95%. A year earlier it was 6.30%. The September path ran 6.71% on the third, 6.76% on the tenth, 6.95% on the seventeenth, and 7.03% on the twenty-fourth.
A news report on September 25 called it the fifth straight weekly increase and the highest reading since January 2025. I’ll say “at least four straight weeks” and leave the exact count to people who want to argue about start dates.
Freddie’s number is a benchmark for conventional, conforming purchase loans with 20% down and excellent credit. It is not a DSCR rate. Don’t treat it as one. Every figure here varies by lender and program — guidelines, property type, leverage, and credit profile all apply.
The daily index ran hotter. Mortgage News Daily’s index surged to 7.45% on September 24, up 19 basis points in a day. Different indexes measure different loans on different timing, so don’t compare their levels against each other.
The Fed added pressure. On September 16, the FOMC voted 12–0 to raise the target range by a quarter point, to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. The statement said inflation remains elevated. The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates. Bond markets do, and the 10-year Treasury yield moved sharply higher this month.
Demand is cooling. The MBA’s survey for the week ending September 18, released September 23, showed purchase applications 11% lower than a year ago, unadjusted. Refinance applications were 62% lower. NAR reported on September 10 that August existing-home sales fell 2.0% from July. Its chief economist said mortgage rates and home sales move in opposite directions.
The lender field is crowding. HousingWire reported on September 12 that DSCR and investor loan lock volume rose 130% between January 2022 and August 2026. It called that the primary growth engine of non-QM, the market for loans that don’t fit standard agency rules. It also said large lenders are diversifying aggressively into the product.
The same reporting noted that isolating DSCR data is tricky, because sources often fold it in with broader investor loans. So treat 130% as a direction, not a precise count.
Why Does Lender Proliferation Put a Deposit at Risk?
More lenders is good for choice. It is not automatically good for execution. Volume growth and lender capacity are different things, and the lock data says nothing about who actually gets to the closing table.
Your earnest money is the first dollar you put at risk. It sits in escrow while you run inspections, order the appraisal, and wait for the loan to come together. Your contract has deadlines. The lender has its own process. When those two clocks disagree, the deposit is what’s exposed.
I have to be straight about the evidence. I found no public data on lender failures, funding failures or lost deposits in DSCR. The thesis here comes from two facts: volume is surging, and the industry is still dealing with a Baltimore fraud case tied to dozens of private lenders, where more than half of the financed deals ultimately defaulted. That case involved private lenders. No source I found ties new entrants to closing failures.
So this is my read, labeled as my read. When a market fills with new players fast, the variance between the best and worst executors widens. A deposit is where you pay for that variance.
Why Are Short-Term Rentals the Sharpest Edge?
A short-term rental file asks the lender to do more. Income is often based on projected or trailing booking data rather than a simple lease, and the valuation work can be more involved. More judgment calls mean more places for a file to stall.
Stalls are what threaten deposits. Your contract has a financing deadline, and a lender that needs another round of documentation or a second look at income can push past it. Then you’re negotiating an extension with a seller who may have backup offers.
Some lenders are more experienced with these properties than others. That is exactly where a crowded field gets risky. A newer entrant may advertise the product without the depth to handle the exceptions. I can’t name names and I wouldn’t if I could. The point is the question to ask, which I cover below.
This applies to long-term rentals too, just with less friction. The more unusual the file, the more the lender’s track record matters.
My Take
Saving a little on rate is not worth a deposit. I think investors are about to over-shop price. Rates are up, every dollar feels heavier, and a lender with a slightly better indication looks like a bargain.
Run the hypothetical. If a rate moves from 7% to 7.25%, that quarter point is real money over time. But a forfeited deposit is gone all at once, and you also lose the deal, the inspection spend and the appraisal fee. A small monthly saving doesn’t survive that math if the lender can’t perform.
Here’s the catch. You can’t see execution risk on a rate sheet. A quote tells you price. It tells you nothing about whether the lender will meet your deadline.
Also be careful comparing quotes at all. Quotes gathered on different days aren’t comparable, and this month that matters more than usual. The 30-year average rose in every weekly survey I cited above, and the daily index moved 19 basis points in a single session. A quote from the seventeenth and a quote from the twenty-fourth describe different markets.
I’m also not saying the newest lender is the worst one. Some new entrants will be excellent. Some established names will stumble. My point is narrower: don’t let price be the only filter when the deposit is on the line.
What It Means for Real Estate Investors
Investors are buying against higher headline prices and a cooler market. NAR put August’s annual sales pace at 3.98 million, with inventory at 1.62 million units and 4.9 months of supply. More supply gives buyers leverage on terms, and terms are where you protect a deposit.
Census data showed August new-home sales rising from July, though the Bureau did not consider that change statistically significant, so I wouldn’t read it as a rebound. Builders are increasing incentives, which is another sign buyers have room to negotiate.
What that means in practice: you may not need to put down a large deposit as quickly as a hot market demands. Sellers facing more inventory often accept longer financing windows, so use that flexibility to line up your financing without rushing.
If you’re shopping DSCR loan programs, remember these loans qualify a property mainly on its rental income rather than on your personal income. That’s why they fit investors who can’t or don’t want to document income the conventional way. Eligibility and terms are subject to lender guidelines, and the product page carries the current details.
What I’d Do Now
Ask capacity questions before you commit a deposit. These are practical and they cost nothing:
- Has this lender handled my exact property type, including short-term rentals, before?
- Who reviews the file, and what happens if they need something new late in the process?
- How does the lender handle a valuation that comes in short?
- Can they work inside my contract’s financing deadline, in writing?
A broker earns the fee here. Our job is to compare lenders and place a file where it fits, not to hand you the lowest quote. If a lender answers vaguely, that tells you something.
Protect the contract. Keep your financing contingency as long as the market lets you. Negotiate deadlines that match the lender’s process, not the seller’s wish list. If you waive protections to win a deal, you’ve made the lender’s performance your personal risk.
Stage your deposit. Where your contract allows, put down the smaller amount first and move to the larger one only after key milestones clear. I’d rather concede a day of goodwill than hand over the full deposit before the lender has shown capacity.
Lock when you like the deal. A rate lock is an agreement that holds a quoted rate for a set period. With the market drifting up, waiting for a dip is a bet, and MND’s own commentary said there was “no obvious catalyst” for the September 24 selloff. Nobody knows the direction from here. If the deal works at today’s numbers, lock it. If it only works at lower ones, it may not be your deal.
Don’t chase the thinnest quote. I’m not telling anyone to buy or sell a particular property. I’m saying that when you weigh two lenders, weigh the chance each one performs, not only the price.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file. Call 828-256-2183 or request a quote.
For background on how other financing sources compare when a conventional or DSCR path stalls, see this look at private money lenders. Treat it as a fallback to understand, not a plan.
For the end-to-end picture of how these loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can I lose my earnest money if my DSCR lender can’t close?
It depends on your contract. If you kept a financing contingency and met its deadlines, the deposit is generally protected. If you waived it, or the lender’s delay pushed you past the deadline, the seller may have a claim. Read the contingency language and the dates before you sign.
Are more DSCR lenders good or bad for investors?
It can cut both ways. More lenders means more choice and more pressure on terms. It also means wider differences in how well each one executes. I found no public data showing new entrants fail more often, so this is a caution, not a finding.
Is the Freddie Mac rate what a DSCR investor pays?
No. Freddie Mac’s survey covers conventional, conforming purchase loans with 20% down and excellent credit. A DSCR loan is priced differently, and the terms depend on the borrower, the property and the lender. Final terms depend on lender guidelines, property type, leverage, and the borrower’s complete credit picture.
Should I wait for rates to fall before making an offer?
I can’t tell you where rates go. Mortgage News Daily said the September 24 jump had no obvious catalyst, and the Fed’s own pricing points to possible further hikes. Base the decision on whether the property works at today’s cost of money, and lock if it does.
What should I ask a lender before I put down a deposit?
Ask whether they’ve handled your property type, how they handle a short valuation, and whether they can work inside your contract deadline in writing. Short-term rentals deserve extra scrutiny. A clear, specific answer is a good sign.
About Lendmire
Lendmire — NMLS# 2371349 — is a mortgage brokerage whose founder writes this column. DSCR investor programs reach 41 markets, including Washington, D.C.; consumer programs such as bank statement, HELOC and down payment assistance loans are arranged in 16 states; every loan is placed with, and underwritten by, a wholesale lender under that lender’s guidelines. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
1. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
2. CNBC, citing Mortgage News Daily, September 24, 2026
3. Federal Reserve FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
4. MBA Weekly Applications Survey, September 23, 2026
This article is part of Lendmire’s DSCR loan program — full qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the program page.
Related reading: If You Like It, Lock It: October Home Purchases In A Rising-rate Market · How Much House Do You Need As September Rates Climb And Inventory Builds? · How Does Escrow Work After Four Straight Weekly Rate Increases?
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
- Mortgage Loan Originator · NMLS# 1129696 · Verify on NMLS Consumer Access
- North Carolina Real Estate Broker · License# 343312 · Verify on NCREC
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- Lendmire LLC · Firm NMLS# 2371349 · Verify firm licensure
Legal disclosures. Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) is a state-licensed mortgage brokerage that arranges financing through wholesale lender relationships. Lendmire is not a direct lender, depository institution, or registered financial advisor. The discussion above is general informational content about real estate financing — it is not financial, legal, or tax advice, and readers should consult licensed professionals for guidance on their individual circumstances. Loan inquiries are subject to lender underwriting; this article does not represent a commitment to lend. Loan terms, rates, and qualification standards vary by borrower, property, and state, and are subject to change at any time. Equal Housing Opportunity. NMLS Consumer Access: nmlsconsumeraccess.org.