The Quick Read: As of September 28, 2026, buying costs more each month than it did a month ago, but buyers hold more leverage than they have in years. Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week ending September 24, 2026, and supply is at a decade high. Rents are flat. So the answer turns on how long you will stay and how much cash cushion you keep.
I write this column for people standing at that fork. Here is what changed, what it means, and what I’d do about it.
Key Takeaways
- Mortgage rates rose four weeks in a row through Freddie Mac’s survey for the week ending September 24, 2026.
- Purchase applications are well below a year ago, per the MBA’s report on September 23, 2026.
- Supply reached 4.9 months in August, which NAR’s chief economist called the highest in more than a decade.
- Builders are using incentives and price cuts, so negotiating room is real.
- Rents are roughly flat, so waiting does not mean renting gets sharply cheaper or dearer.
- Your time horizon matters more than any single rate print.
What Changed This Month
Rates climbed, and they climbed steadily. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey ran 6.71% for the week ending September 3, 2026, then 6.76% on September 10, 6.95% on September 17, and 7.03% on September 24. That is four straight increases. From the 6.66% print before them, it adds up to 37 basis points. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point.
A year earlier, the same survey stood at 6.30%. The gap is 73 basis points.
Two cautions on those numbers. Freddie’s survey covers conventional, conforming purchase loans with 20% down and excellent credit. It is a benchmark, not a quote for anyone. It also averages the prior Wednesday through Wednesday, so it lags. Mortgage News Daily’s index read 7.45% on September 24, 2026, and MND noted Freddie’s survey trails its daily reading. Its live page on September 28 showed the average lender at 7.50%, the first time since April 30, 2024. That is a daily-change tool, not an offer of credit. Terms vary by lender guidelines, property type, leverage, credit profile, and full file review.
Why did it happen? The Fed did not set mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve’s statement on September 16, 2026 raised the short-term target range by 25 basis points to 3¾–4%, on a 12–0 vote. CNBC called it the first hike since 2023. But mortgage rates track long-term yields, and those were already rising. CNBC reported on September 26, 2026 that the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.23% on Friday, September 25, the highest since 2007, from just under 4.8% earlier in the month. The Fed chair pointed to economic strength and competition for capital. CNBC added oil, the Iran conflict and heavy bond issuance. Nobody knows yet which factor dominates.
Demand responded. In the MBA’s survey for the week ending September 18, 2026, released September 23, the purchase index fell 1% seasonally adjusted. The unadjusted index sat 11% below a year earlier. Three weeks before, for the week ending August 28, the gap was only 0.2%. The MBA’s 30-year conforming contract rate rose to 7.12% from 6.97%. Refinance applications were 62% below a year earlier. That is a big swing from 19% in the earlier report, and I’d treat the exact figure with care. The direction is not in doubt.
One more sign of stress: the adjustable-rate share of applications hit 8.5% in the week ending September 4, CNBC reported on September 9, 2026 from MBA data. That was the highest since June. Buyers are reaching for anything that eases the monthly bill.
Who Holds the Leverage Now?
Buyers do, more than at any point in years. The evidence is on the supply side. NAR’s August report, published September 10, 2026, showed sales at a 3.98 million annual rate, down 2.0% on the month. Inventory stood at 1.62 million homes. Supply reached 4.9 months, up from 4.6 in July and 4.6 a year earlier. NAR’s chief economist said that is the highest in more than a decade and gives buyers better chances to negotiate.
Builders tell the same story. The NAHB Housing Market Index fell 3 points to 32 in September, the lowest since September 2025. Per NAHB’s release in mid-September, 38% of builders cut prices, up from 35% in August, at an average cut of 6%. And 66% used incentives, the highest since December. Note the order. Incentives beat outright cuts. A builder would rather buy down your cost than post a lower sticker.
Realtor.com’s research, released September 10, 2026, calls September 27 to October 3 the best week to buy this year. It cites 31.9% more active listings than at the start of the year and listing prices about 3.5% below their seasonal peak. Treat that as a marketing frame, but the listings figure is real.
Here is the catch. Leverage does not mean prices are falling. NAR’s median price was $429,100 in August, up 1.6% on the year, the 38th straight annual gain. Secondary reporting of Realtor.com’s weekly data, dated September 19, 2026, put the median listing price at $419,500, down 1.3%. Both can be true. One measures asking prices, the other closed sales. Leverage shows up in concessions and in how long a listing sits, not necessarily in a lower median.
What Does Renting Cost Right Now?
Roughly what it cost a year ago. Apartment List’s national report, dated September 28, 2026, showed median rent down 0.1% in September, the first monthly decline since January. It was down 0.4% year over year, after bottoming at -1.6% in April. Vacancy was 7%.
Other sources disagree on direction. Apartments.com/CoStar reports average rent up 0.8% on the year, with vacancy at 7.8%. Different methods, different answers. My read: rents are flat to soft. Nobody can say renters face a fresh squeeze.
That changes the question. A year ago, the pitch was that waiting meant rising rents. Today waiting costs you little in rent, but it also means you might face a higher rate or a different market when you return.
Buy or Rent: How Long Will You Stay?
Length of stay decides this, and a single rate figure does not. Buying carries upfront costs, and you only earn them back by staying. Renting carries none of that, but it builds no equity and leaves you exposed to the landlord’s next move.
Here is how I’d sort it.
| Your situation | What leans toward |
|---|---|
| Staying several years, stable income | Buying, with a rate plan |
| Might move within a couple of years | Renting |
| Thin cash reserves after closing | Renting while you build them |
| Want to use builder incentives | Buying, if it fits the budget |
That table is a rule of thumb, not a verdict. Your file, your local market and your reserves change it.
Picture a household that plans to stay in one area for the long haul and has steady income. Higher rates hurt, but a seller or builder now willing to give something back shifts the math. Picture another household that might relocate for work. The transaction costs eat any equity gain. For them, the flat rent market says wait.
I’ll think out loud on a harder case: the buyer who has the cash but fears rates will keep climbing. Markets and the Fed’s own projections disagree on how many more hikes are coming. Some sources suggest another this year. Waiting for a dip is a bet. Buying now is also a bet. Neither is free.
My Take
Don’t time the rate. Time your life. I can’t tell you where the 10-year yield goes next, and neither can anyone quoting you a forecast. What I can say is that the people who get burned are those who buy a payment they can’t carry, or who stretch because a builder dangled a perk.
My view: this is a better market to negotiate than to celebrate. Supply is high. Sellers are flexible. Concessions are on the table. But the cost of money is the highest in years. Use the first and respect the second.
The “rent and wait” crowd has a point. Rents are flat, so patience is cheap. The “buy now, refinance later” crowd has a point too, but refinancing is weak, and there is no promise rates come back. Plan so that you could live with today’s cost of borrowing for years. If a lower rate arrives, treat it as a bonus.
Also ignore the headline that rates “just crossed” a big round-number milestone. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey lags, and Mortgage News Daily’s daily index was already running higher. The market moved before the headline did.
What I’d Do Now
Decide your horizon first. Write down how long you expect to stay. If the honest answer is short, renting is a sound choice, not a failure.
Ask for concessions, in writing. With supply at a decade high, ask what the seller or builder will give. Closing-cost help or a rate buydown from a builder may matter more than a small price cut. Compare offers on the same basis, including what the incentive requires you to do.
Understand your lock. A rate lock is an agreement that holds an interest rate for a set period while your loan is processed. Floating means leaving it unlocked and taking the market as it moves. When rates are rising four weeks running, floating is a gamble on direction. If you like the deal and the payment works, lock it. Also know that quotes gathered on different days are not comparable. A number from last Tuesday tells you little about today.
Shop the structure, not just the number. Borrowers with nontraditional income, such as the self-employed or investors, have options beyond the conforming benchmark. Our loan options page carries the current guidelines, subject to lender guidelines and your file. Non-QM, meaning loans outside standard agency rules, is having a record year. National Mortgage News, dated September 14, 2026, reported that issuance through September 11 was $83 billion.
Consider equity if you already own. If you hold a home and are eyeing a second property, this piece on using home equity lays out the tradeoffs.
Keep a cushion. Buying when the monthly cost is heavy only works if an emergency doesn’t sink you. Reserves matter more now than they did when rates were lower.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file.
What Is Still Unclear?
Three things. First, the rate path. Sources differ on how many more hikes to expect, and the next NAR report lands October 13, 2026. Second, why yields jumped. Strength, oil, geopolitics and bond supply all get mentioned. Third, whether leverage will show up in closed prices. Growth in NAR’s median slowed to 1.6% in August from 2.0% in July. Slowing is not reversing.
I’d watch three dated reads in October: the weekly Freddie Mac survey, the MBA’s Wednesday applications report, and NAR’s next release.
For the end-to-end picture of how DSCR loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it cheaper to rent than buy right now?
Month to month, usually yes, because rents are flat and borrowing costs are high. Apartment List’s September 28, 2026 data showed rents down 0.4% on the year. But over a long stay, buying builds equity that renting does not. The answer depends on your horizon and your local prices, which this national column cannot settle.
Should I wait for rates to fall before buying?
Only if waiting costs you little and you can live with being wrong. Sources disagree on the path, and the Fed just raised its target range. If the house fits your budget at today’s cost of money, waiting is a bet on direction. If it doesn’t fit, waiting is the right call regardless of the rate.
What does a rate lock actually do?
It holds an interest rate for a set period while your loan moves toward closing. It protects you if the market rises after you lock. It also means you won’t benefit if rates fall, unless your lender offers a float-down. Rising rates four weeks running are a reason to know your options before you pick.
Does a higher supply of homes mean prices are dropping?
Not yet, at least not in the headline numbers. NAR’s median price still rose year over year in August, extending a long streak of annual gains, even as supply climbed to 4.9 months. The leverage shows up as concessions and longer negotiations. Asking prices are softer, per Realtor.com’s weekly data, but closed-sale medians move more slowly.
Are builder incentives better than price cuts?
Often they are a bigger lever. NAHB’s September data showed 66% of builders using incentives against 38% cutting prices. An incentive can reduce your upfront or ongoing cost without changing the sticker price the builder shows to comps. Read what the incentive requires before you sign.
About Lendmire
As a mortgage broker (NMLS# 2371349), Lendmire arranges DSCR investor loans in 40 states plus Washington, D.C. — 41 markets — and, on its consumer platform, bank statement, home equity and down payment assistance financing in 16 states, through wholesale lenders. Lendmire never underwrites or funds a loan itself. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
1. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
2. Federal Reserve FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
4. CNBC on the 10-year Treasury yield, September 26, 2026
5. MBA Weekly Applications Survey, September 23, 2026
7. NAR August existing-home sales report, September 10, 2026
8. NAHB builder sentiment release, September 2026
9. Apartment List national rent report
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: Why A Local Real Estate Broker Matters As Buyers Gain Leverage, September 2026? · September 2026: Buyers Need A Real Estate Agent As Supply Grows, Rates Climb · Listing Your Home For Sale This Fall As Inventory Climbs And Rates Rise
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
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Important disclosures. Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) is a licensed mortgage brokerage. Lendmire is not a direct lender, depository institution, or financial advisor. All loan inquiries are subject to lender underwriting; this article does not constitute a commitment to lend. Rates, terms, and program guidelines are subject to change without notice and vary by borrower profile, property type, and state. Information in this article is general in nature and is not financial, legal, or tax advice. Equal Housing Opportunity. NMLS Consumer Access: nmlsconsumeraccess.org.