The Quick Read: The number is set by three things: the price, the rate side of the loan, and what the seller or builder agrees to pay. As of September 28, 2026, the rate side is moving against buyers. The negotiating side is moving for them. Builders are handing out incentives at the highest share since December, and resale inventory is at a level not seen in years. My read: credits can offset part of the damage, but only if you get them in writing and understand what each one does.
Here is how the pieces fit, with dates attached to every number.
Key takeaways
- Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, 2026. That is up from 6.95% the week before.
- The Fed raised its target range by 25 basis points on September 16, 2026. Mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield more directly than the Fed’s decision.
- Builders used incentives in 66% of cases in September, per Inman citing NAHB data. Most are favoring incentives over list-price cuts.
- A credit, a rate buydown and a price cut are three different tools. They change three different parts of your cash and your loan.
- Nothing in the data tells us how large builder credits are, or whether they cover the rate increase. Treat any claim that they do as unproven.
What changed
Rates moved up again, and by a meaningful amount over the past month.
Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, 2026. The week before it was 6.95%, and a year earlier it was 6.30%. Per Freddie Mac’s archive, that is a gain of 8 basis points on the week. The 15-year averaged 6.42%, up 16 basis points.
The prior week’s move was bigger. Fox Business reported the jump to 6.95% was 19 basis points, the largest one-week move since April 2025. It also reported the 7.03% reading was the first above 7% since January 2025.
The Mortgage Bankers Association tells the same story from the application side. For the week ending September 18, its 30-year contract rate was 7.12%, the highest since May 2024. A survey a month earlier, for the week ending August 28, had it at 6.79%. By my own arithmetic from the two MBA releases, that is about 33 basis points in between. Two surveys, two methods, one direction.
Buyers noticed. In the MBA’s September 23 report, refinance applications were 62% below a year earlier. The unadjusted purchase index was 11% below a year earlier. Adjustable-rate loans also took a noticeably larger share of applications, a sign that some borrowers are reaching for a lower starting rate.
Then there is the Fed. On September 16, 2026, the FOMC raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, per the Atlanta Fed’s posting of the statement. Advisor Perspectives describes it as a 12–0 vote and the first hike since 2023.
One correction to a common misreading. The Fed does not set mortgage rates. Fox Business put the 10-year Treasury yield at about 5.1% on September 24 and called it the main driver of mortgage rates. The Fed’s move is part of the backdrop, not the price tag.
Where does the leverage sit?
On the other side of the table, the balance is shifting toward buyers.
NAR’s August report, released September 10, 2026, showed existing-home sales at a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 3.98 million. That is down 2.0% on the month and 1.2% on the year. Inventory reached 1.62 million units, up 5.9% from August 2025. It was the first time above 1.6 million since November 2019. Supply stood at 4.9 months, up from 4.6 a month earlier. NAR’s release says that supply gives buyers better chances to negotiate. NAR’s next release, for September sales, is scheduled for October 13 per its existing-home sales page.
New construction is where the concessions are heaviest. Inman, citing Census and NAHB, reported 483,000 new homes for sale at the end of August. That is 8.5 months of supply, down from 9 months in July. In September, 66% of builders used incentives, up from 63% in August and the highest since December. About 38% cut prices, up from 35%, and the average cut held at 6% for a sixth month.
Read that carefully. Most builders are leading with incentives, not price cuts. A builder would usually rather offer a credit than lower the number that sets the next buyer’s comparable sale. That tells you where to look for room.
Incentives are not new. Inman reported in May that at least 60% of builders had used them for 14 straight months. What changed is the rate backdrop they now have to work against.
What does cash to close actually include?
Cash to close is everything you wire or bring to the table at signing. The down payment is only one piece.
It also includes lender and title charges, prepaid items like the first stretch of insurance and property taxes, and any escrow deposits. Rate-side costs sit in there too, such as points if you choose to pay them. Some of those are fixed by the transaction. Others move with the rate environment and the loan you pick. Credits from a seller or builder reduce what you bring. They do not change the loan, the contract price or the rate on their own.
That last sentence matters most this month. Higher rates push two things at once. They raise the cost of any rate-side buy-down. They also raise the monthly cost of the loan, and a credit toward closing does nothing about that. A buyer who looks only at cash to close can feel relieved at the table and squeezed afterward.
A credit is not a price cut
Credits, buydowns and price reductions are three different tools. Mixing them up is the most expensive mistake available right now.
| Tool | What it reduces | What it leaves alone |
|---|---|---|
| Closing credit | Cash due at signing | Price, rate, monthly cost |
| Rate buydown | Interest cost, for a period or permanently | Price, cash to close (it can add to it) |
| Price reduction | The loan size and the price on record | Rate environment |
A closing credit helps your wallet on day one. A buydown helps your monthly carry, but a temporary one steps back up to the full rate. A price cut lowers the amount you finance and resets the comparable sale for the neighborhood. Builders prefer the first two partly because they protect the third: the price on record.
Programs also limit how much a seller or builder can contribute toward your costs. The limit depends on the loan type and how much you put down, and it is subject to lender guidelines. The credit you are promised can be bigger than the credit the loan allows. Ask that question before you sign, not at the closing table. Our loan options page carries the current program guidelines, so check there for how contributions work under each one.
One more point on structure. Some builders tie their best incentives to using a preferred lender. That is a legitimate offer and sometimes a good one. It is also a reason to compare it against other quotes before you accept it. A credit that costs you a worse loan is not a credit.
My take
I think this is a market where buyers who negotiate well can still do fine, and buyers who negotiate only the credit can get hurt.
The pitch is easy to like: the builder pays your closing costs. But the data say rates have risen in recent weeks by one measure. Incentives are widespread, yet I found no dated source on how big the credits are or how many get redeemed. So nobody can honestly tell you the credit offsets the rate move; it may or may not, depending on the deal. Run it on your own file.
I also think the “buyer’s market” label is too loose. Inman’s September 29 analysis put builder confidence at 32, a three-year low. It argues that new construction is pulling back, which could thin supply in 2027. Falling sales alongside shrinking new supply do not automatically favor buyers. Today’s leverage may not last.
That is my reasoning for a middle path. Use the leverage you have now on the items that matter long term. Do not lose sight of the rate you carry for years to chase a credit you spend once.
There is a real toss-up here between a temporary buydown and a plain closing credit. The buydown lowers early payments but depends on a refinance or income growth later. With refinance activity at its slowest pace since February 2025, I would not build a plan that needs a refinance to work. That is an opinion, and your file may argue the other way.
What I’d do now
Nothing here is advice to buy or sell any particular asset. These are mechanics.
Compare quotes on the same day. Rates moved enough over the past month that two quotes gathered a few days apart are not comparable. Same-day quotes, same loan type, same terms. Otherwise you are comparing the market, not the lenders.
Know what a lock does. A rate lock holds a quoted rate for a set period, subject to its terms. If the numbers work for you at today’s rate, lock it. Floating is a bet that rates fall, and this month’s data argues against making it casually. The 10-year yield is the number to watch, not the Fed’s next meeting.
Get every credit in writing. The contract should state the amount, what it can be applied to, and whether it depends on a lender choice. A verbal promise at a sales center is not a credit.
Ask what you are really buying. A credit lowers cash. A buydown lowers interest cost. A price cut lowers the loan. Decide which problem you have first. If your issue is the cash you have saved, a credit fits. If your issue is the monthly carry, ask about permanent options and weigh the up-front cost.
Check the supply you are really shopping. Resale inventory is up. New-build inventory is down from July. Look at both before deciding that a new build is where your leverage is. Resale sellers are also negotiating, and a seller concession can work like a builder credit.
If you own and have equity, the picture is different. Refinance applications are well below last year’s pace, and I found no dated home-equity-line data this month. Our column on record home equity meeting rising rates covers that side.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file.
For the end-to-end picture of how these loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Do builder credits lower my price?
No. A credit lowers the cash you bring to closing. The contract price, and so the loan amount, stays the same. A price reduction is the tool that changes those. Inman’s September 25 report shows builders leaning toward incentives over list-price cuts, so ask for each by name.
Will a builder credit cover the higher rate?
I can’t say, and neither can anyone who has not seen your numbers. The data show incentives are widespread, but I found no dated figures on credit size. Freddie Mac’s survey rose to 7.03% for the week of September 24. Whether a credit offsets that depends on its amount and your loan.
Is Freddie Mac’s 7.03% the rate I will get?
No. It is a weekly average of what lenders reported. The MBA’s contract rate was higher, at 7.12% for the week ending September 18, because it measures a different group of applications. Neither is a quote. Your own rate depends on your file and the day you lock.
Does the Fed’s hike set my mortgage rate?
Not directly. The FOMC raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, 2026, but mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury yield more closely. Fox Business reported the yield near 5.1% on September 24 and called it the main driver.
Is this a buyer’s market?
Parts of it. NAR reported 1.62 million homes for sale in August, the first time above 1.6 million since November 2019, and supply of 4.9 months. Inman argues, though, that falling sales with thinning new construction do not guarantee buyers the upper hand. Watch NAR’s September report on October 13.
About Lendmire
Lendmire — NMLS# 2371349 — is a mortgage brokerage whose founder writes this column. DSCR investor programs reach 41 markets, including Washington, D.C.; consumer programs such as bank statement, HELOC and down payment assistance loans are arranged in 16 states; every loan is placed with, and underwritten by, a wholesale lender under that lender’s guidelines. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
1. Freddie Mac, weekly 30-year average, week of September 24, 2026
3. Fox Business, mortgage rates coverage, September 24, 2026
4. MBA Weekly Applications Survey, September 23, 2026
5. Atlanta Fed, FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
7. NAR, existing-home sales page
8. Inman, new-home sales and builder incentives, September 25, 2026
9. Inman, falling pending sales and builder confidence, September 29, 2026
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: Why A Local Real Estate Broker Matters As Buyers Gain Leverage, September 2026? · September 2026: Buyers Need A Real Estate Agent As Supply Grows, Rates Climb · Listing Your Home For Sale This Fall As Inventory Climbs And Rates Rise
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
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Legal disclosures. Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) is a state-licensed mortgage brokerage that arranges financing through wholesale lender relationships. Lendmire is not a direct lender, depository institution, or registered financial advisor. The discussion above is general informational content about real estate financing — it is not financial, legal, or tax advice, and readers should consult licensed professionals for guidance on their individual circumstances. Loan inquiries are subject to lender underwriting; this article does not represent a commitment to lend. Loan terms, rates, and qualification standards vary by borrower, property, and state, and are subject to change at any time. Equal Housing Opportunity. NMLS Consumer Access: nmlsconsumeraccess.org.