The Quick Read: Yes, but unevenly, and the rate move is eating into the gain. As of September 28, 2026, supply is the highest in years, August existing-home sales fell, and sellers are conceding in a record share of deals across the Sun Belt. Against that, Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, 2026, up for a fifth straight week. Buyers have more room to negotiate. They also face a higher cost of money.
Key Takeaways
- Buyers hold more leverage than they have in years, mostly in Sun Belt metros. Midwest and Northeast markets still favor sellers.
- NAR’s August report showed 4.9 months of supply, sales down 2.0% on the month, and a median price still up 1.6% on the year. Cooling, not collapse.
- Freddie Mac’s weekly average has risen five weeks in a row, 37 basis points from August 27 to September 24, 2026.
- The Fed raised its target range on September 16, 2026, its first move up in more than three years.
- Leverage on price and concessions is real. Leverage on the monthly carry is partly gone.
What changed
Supply and sales moved first. NAR’s August report, released September 10, 2026, showed existing-home sales down 2.0% from July and 1.2% from a year earlier, at a pace of 3.98 million. Inventory stood at 1.62 million homes, or 4.9 months of supply. NAR’s existing-home sales page carries the full release, including its chief economist’s comment on months’ supply. HousingWire noted it was the first sub-4-million pace since June 2025.
Keep perspective. Sales are still up 1.6% year to date through eight months. The median sale price was $429,100, up 1.6% on the year. A cooling market, not a broken one.
Sellers are paying to get deals done. Redfin’s August data, released September 10, 2026, found Nashville had an estimated 139% more sellers than buyers. Miami ran at 138% and Houston at 131%. Nationally, Redfin puts the seller surplus near 58%, up from 52.1% in July. Redfin’s later explainer, dated September 17, says the Sun Belt holds the strongest buyer’s markets while the Midwest, Northeast and Bay Area hold the remaining seller’s markets.
Concessions tell the same story. Inman’s report on Redfin’s data, dated September 18, 2026, said sellers gave concessions in 44.7% of August sales, against 42.6% a year earlier. Atlanta led at 72.8%. Charlotte was at 67.9% and Phoenix at 67.4%. In New York the share was 5.7%. Same country, different markets.
Builders are cutting too. The Census Bureau’s August new-home report, dated September 24, 2026, showed sales at 684,000, up 6.4% from July. The median price was $393,700, 5.8% below a year earlier. Supply was 8.5 months. Inman, on September 25, reported that 38% of builders cut prices in September and 66% used incentives, the highest share since December. The monthly sales gain and the median-price change are not statistically significant, so I would not call it a recovery.
Rates climbed. Here is the Freddie Mac sequence, from its weekly releases: 6.66% on August 27, 6.71% for the week of September 3, 6.76% on September 10, 6.95% on September 17, and 7.03% on September 24. A year earlier the survey read 6.30%.
A published survey for the week ending September 18, released September 23, 2026, showed its 30-year contract rate for conforming balances moving higher for the week, a rise of roughly fifteen basis points. Purchase applications were 11% below a year earlier on an unadjusted basis. Refinance applications were 62% below a year earlier. Different methodology, same direction. Don’t mix the two measures in one sentence, and don’t read either as a non-QM benchmark. Freddie Mac says its survey covers conventional, conforming purchase loans for borrowers with 20% down and excellent credit. Exact terms depend on the lender’s guidelines, property type, leverage, and a full review of the borrower’s file.
The Fed turned. The FOMC statement of September 16, 2026 raised the target range by a quarter point, to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, on a 12–0 vote. It said inflation remains elevated. CNBC reported it as the first hike in more than three years, with another indicated.
Why aren’t buyers celebrating?
Leverage on price is not leverage on affordability. A buyer can win a concession and still face a higher monthly carry than last month. That is the tension in this market.
Run a hypothetical. If a rate moves from 6.66% to 7.03%, the difference is 37 basis points, more than a third of a full point. On a large balance that changes the monthly cost noticeably. A seller credit can absorb part of it. It can’t absorb all of it for every buyer.
The Fed hike did not cause that whole move. Fed funds moved 25 basis points. Freddie Mac’s average moved 37 over four weeks, and long-term yields did most of the work. The Fed’s own July minutes, released August 19, 2026, show yields had already repriced ahead of the hike. The MBA, on September 2, pointed to investor concerns about inflation and deficits pushing yields higher across the globe.
Sentiment is hard to read too. Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index appears to be discontinued; FRED labels the series discontinued after September 2025. I would not quote a current reading.
What it means for real estate investors
The Sun Belt is where the discounts are, and also where the rent coverage math is under the most pressure. More inventory and more concessions help you negotiate the purchase. Higher rates raise the carry on whatever you finance. Both are true at once.
Redfin attributes part of the Sun Belt glut to active homebuilding pipelines. That matters for rentals. New supply can soften rents in the same metros where sellers are conceding. I found no September data on investor purchase share or rent-coverage volume, so I won’t claim to know where the marginal investor is moving.
Here’s how I’d frame it. A rental is priced on rent coverage: the monthly rent divided by the full monthly housing cost, including principal, interest, taxes, insurance and any association dues. When the cost of money rises, the coverage number falls unless the price or the rent moves. A concession or a price cut is how the deal gets back to working. Sellers know this, which is part of why concessions are up.
For borrowers who qualify on the property’s rent rather than traditional personal-income documentation, the structure of the loan matters more in a rising-rate month. I keep the current program details on our loan options page, because guidelines move and this column should not freeze them. Eligibility is subject to lender guidelines and property review.
Leverage structure is a separate question from rates. If you are weighing a small multifamily against a single-family rental, I wrote an earlier piece explaining how a duplex can get the same leverage as a single-family rental. Read it with the current guidelines in hand.
As background only, HousingWire reported on June 30, 2026 that non-QM production was forecast at $175 billion for 2026, against $108 billion in 2025, with investor and rent-based products about half of non-QM collateral. That is a forecast, now three months old, not a September reading.
Is this a buyer’s market everywhere?
No. Redfin’s own data shows seller’s markets in the Midwest, Northeast and Bay Area. New York concessions ran 5.7% of sales in August, and San Jose 4.2%. A national headline hides a very uneven map.
Even the national measures disagree, and they measure different things. NAR’s 4.9 months of supply is the highest in over ten years, per its chief economist. Realtor.com’s August report, released September 2, 2026, put the median list price at $424,500, down 1.3% from a year earlier, the tenth straight annual decline, with 20.4% of listings carrying a price cut. Yet NAR’s median sale price is up 1.6%. List prices down, sale prices up. Different samples, different timing.
So the honest read is mixed. Scotsman Guide framed it well: more inventory gives buyers more options and, in theory, stronger negotiating leverage. “In theory” is doing work there. Leverage only counts if you are in a market where sellers have to deal.
My take
My read: this is a real shift in negotiating power, concentrated in the Sun Belt, and it is being partly taxed away by rates. I would not call it a crash, and I would not tell anyone prices are about to fall nationally. NAR’s median says otherwise.
I also think the direction of rates matters more than the level. A buyer who priced a purchase last month at 6.66% and is shopping this month at 7.03% has lost something real. A buyer who has been waiting for 2021 to come back has lost more, because the wait itself has a cost.
Thinking out loud: is August’s new-home bounce a recovery or a snapback from a weak July? July’s figure was revised up, which makes August look more like a snapback. HousingWire said the data have yet to produce a broader demand recovery. I lean toward snapback, but one more month of data decides it.
Another open question is whether the Fed hikes again. Coverage of the September 16 projections points to a possible December move, but that is a projection, not a decision. The next data points are the MBA survey on September 30, NAR’s September sales on October 13, and pending sales on October 20.
What I’d do now
Nothing here is advice to buy or sell a particular property. It is how I’d think about the month.
Ask for the concession, not just the price cut. In markets where nearly half of sales carry one, it is the normal ask. Redfin found 15.8% of August sales carried both a concession and a price cut, so asking for both is not exotic.
Compare quotes from the same day. Rates moved 19 basis points in one Freddie Mac week, from September 10 to September 17. Two quotes gathered a week apart are not comparable. If you want to compare, compare on one day, on the same loan terms.
If you like it, lock it. A rate lock is an agreement that holds a quoted rate for a set period. When the trend is up and the deal works at today’s number, floating is a bet on yields. Yields can reverse on oil, inflation data or geopolitics. They can also keep climbing. I don’t know which, and neither does anyone else.
Re-run the rent coverage at the current cost of money. If the deal worked in August, test it again. If it only works at a price the seller won’t take, walk. That is the discipline that keeps an investor out of trouble.
Don’t read the Freddie Mac number as your own. Its survey covers a specific borrower profile. Non-QM and investor loans are priced differently, and the lenders we work with set their own terms. For the wider picture on rent-based loans, see our DSCR loans guide.
Owners with equity should expect little movement. Refinance applications were 62% below a year earlier in the MBA’s September 23 release. Lock-in is holding, and I found no fresh HELOC data this month.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file. Call 828-256-2183 or request a quote.
The real test of this market is not the headline seller surplus but whether rents in the glutted Sun Belt metros hold as new supply arrives.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it a buyer’s market right now?
In parts of the country, yes. Redfin’s August data shows the Sun Belt with the strongest buyer’s markets and the Midwest, Northeast and Bay Area still favoring sellers. Nationally, the seller surplus was about 58% in Redfin’s data. NAR’s 4.9 months of supply is also the highest in over ten years.
Will home prices fall?
Nationally, the data does not show a collapse. NAR’s median sale price for August was $429,100, up 1.6% from a year earlier. Realtor.com’s median list price was down 1.3%. Leverage is showing up in concessions and price cuts more than in headline prices.
Did the Fed raise mortgage rates?
Not directly. The Fed raised its target range by a quarter point on September 16, 2026. Mortgage rates follow longer-term yields more closely. Freddie Mac’s 30-year average rose 37 basis points between August 27 and September 24, more than the Fed’s move.
Does the Freddie Mac rate apply to investor loans?
No. Investor and non-QM loans are priced by the lenders we work with, subject to their guidelines, so use the survey as a market gauge only.
About Lendmire
Lendmire, NMLS# 2371349, is a mortgage broker with two platforms: DSCR investor lending across 41 markets, including Washington, D.C., and consumer mortgage programs in 16 states, all arranged through wholesale lending partners. This column is written by Lendmire’s founder and reflects the market as of its publication date; program terms and availability are set by the lender on each file. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
1. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
3. HousingWire
4. Inman on Redfin seller concessions
5. Federal Reserve FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: September Home Inspection Checklist: Buyer Leverage As Inventory Grows · Peak Real Estate Season Is Over, And September 2026 Favors Buyers · Buying High-end Real Estate In September 2026 As Yields Near A 19-year High
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Required disclosures. Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) operates as a licensed mortgage broker, not a direct lender or depository. The discussion in this article is general in nature and should not be relied upon as financial, legal, or tax advice — every investment scenario is unique and should be reviewed by a qualified professional. Any loan inquiry is subject to lender underwriting, and this article is not a commitment to lend or a guarantee of approval. Mortgage rates, loan terms, and program guidelines vary by borrower, property, and state, and may change without notice. Equal Housing Opportunity. Verify licensure at NMLS Consumer Access.