The Quick Read: As of September 28, 2026, the honest answer is “maybe, but recheck it.” Freddie Mac’s survey has risen four straight weeks, and the Fed raised rates on September 16. The same price now costs more each month than it did in August. Buyers do have more room to negotiate, which helps a little.
I write this column with eighteen years in lending behind it. The lesson from all of them is simple. Affordability is a moving target, and the last time you checked is not the same as today.
Key Takeaways
- Freddie Mac’s 30-year average rose for four straight weeks through September 24, 2026. That is up 37 basis points.
- The Fed raised its target range on September 16, 2026, its first hike since 2023.
- Inventory is climbing and existing-home sales are softening. That gives buyers real room to negotiate.
- Prices have not fallen nationally. Negotiating helps, but it will not erase the rate move.
- Rerun your budget at today’s market, not August’s.
What Changed
Mortgage rates climbed four weeks in a row. Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 6.66% the week before September 3. It reached 7.03% for the week of September 24. The steps were 6.71% on September 3, 6.76% on September 10, 6.95% on September 17 and 7.03% on September 24. A year earlier the average was 6.30%.
Keep that number in context. Freddie Mac’s survey covers conventional, conforming purchase loans for borrowers with 20% down and excellent credit. It is a benchmark. It is not a quote, and it is not your rate. Exact terms depend on the lender’s guidelines, property type, leverage, and a full review of the borrower’s file.
Other gauges say the same thing. The MBA’s weekly survey, released September 23, showed its 30-year contract rate at 7.12%. That is up from 6.97% the week before. Against late August, the MBA’s series is up 33 basis points. Mortgage News Daily’s index said on September 28 that the average lender sat at 7.50%, the first time since April 30, 2024. That index measures something different from Freddie Mac’s weekly average, so don’t compare the two number for number.
The Fed hiked. According to CNBC’s report on the decision, the Fed raised its benchmark by 25 basis points on September 16, 2026. The target range went to 3.75%–4%. The vote was 12–0.
Here is the catch. The Fed’s move did not set your mortgage rate. Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury yield far more closely. Freddie Mac’s average was already rising before the meeting. CNBC reported the 10-year at 5.234% intraday on September 28. Early in September it traded just below 4.8%. That is a climb of more than 40 basis points in a month. Sources disagree on the exact close for last Friday, so treat the level as approximate. The direction is not in doubt.
The housing data softened. NAR’s August report, released September 10, showed existing-home sales down 2.0% on the month. The annual pace fell to 3.98 million, below 4.0 million for the first time since June 2025. Inventory reached 1.62 million units, up 5.9% from a year earlier. Supply stood at 4.9 months, which NAR’s chief economist called the highest in over ten years.
The median existing-home price was still up 1.6% from a year earlier, at $429,100, per HousingWire’s write-up.
What Does the Rate Climb Mean for Home Buyers?
It means the same house costs more each month. Price and rate together set the payment. When the rate rises and the price holds, the payment rises. A budget built in August used August’s rate. Redo it.
A plain hypothetical shows the size of the effect. If a rate moves from 6.5% to 7.5%, that is a full percentage point. On a big balance over thirty years, that full point matters far more than most buyers expect. It is not a rounding error.
Three things I would keep straight:
1. Qualifying is not affording. A lender’s review measures whether the numbers fit its guidelines. It does not measure whether the payment fits your life.
2. The payment is more than principal and interest. Taxes, insurance and any association dues sit on top. Get local estimates for those before you fall in love with a listing.
3. Cash after closing matters. A budget that empties your savings to make the down payment is fragile, whatever the ratio says.
Buyers are pulling back, and the data shows it. The MBA reported that purchase applications, unadjusted, were 11% below a year ago. Refinance applications were 62% below. Redfin’s release of September 17 said pending sales fell 3.5% week over week to the lowest level in almost three years. Redfin also described less competition and more room to negotiate.
Is There Any Good News in the Data?
Yes: negotiating room. NAR’s chief economist said ample supply is giving buyers better opportunities to negotiate. Builders are moving too. Per Inman’s coverage of the September 25 new-home report, 38% of builders cut prices and 66% used incentives in September.
Census figures show the same softness in price. The Census new-home report of September 24 put the median new-home price at $393,700, 5.8% below August 2025. Supply was 8.5 months. I would not read too much into it. Inman reported that Census did not consider the monthly change in sales statistically significant, and the average price swings with the mix of homes sold.
Now the reality check. Prices have not broken. NAR’s median is up 1.6% and Redfin’s median sale price is up 2%. Buyers are gaining leverage. They are not seeing widespread price drops. A seller who concedes a few points helps your monthly cost. It will not undo a full point of rate.
My Take
My read: the buyers who get hurt this fall are the ones who fixed a number in August and never revisited it. I don’t think the rate story is over. Futures priced about a 64% chance of another Fed hike in October, per CNBC. That is a market estimate, not a promise. Rates could ease or climb from here.
I would not try to time it. Nobody rings a bell at the bottom, and the top is only obvious in hindsight. What you can control is your budget, your savings cushion and how much you negotiate.
This one’s a genuine toss-up for buyers who could wait. Waiting might bring lower rates, but it might not. Meanwhile, more inventory and more negotiating room exist right now. A patient buyer with a stable budget is in a better position this fall than a buyer who stretched. That is my opinion, and it is worth more than any headline price.
One more point on the numbers. Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said the housing market remains supported by a solid labor market and an economy growing at a healthy rate. That supports demand. It is also part of why rates are not falling.
What I’d Do Now
Rerun the math at today’s market, and stress it. Here is the order I would work in.
Step one: reset your ceiling. Set a monthly housing number you can carry comfortably, not the maximum a lender might review. Work backward to a price. If the price you get is lower than in August, that is the honest answer.
Step two: stress test a higher rate. Ask what happens if rates rise another half point before you buy. If the budget breaks, you have your answer before the market gives it to you.
Step three: use the leverage. More supply means you can ask for price reductions, seller credits or repairs. Builders are offering incentives. Ask about them. Every dollar of concession helps.
Step four: understand locks. A rate lock holds a quoted rate for a set period while your loan moves along. Floating means you leave it unlocked and take the market’s moves, up or down. If you have a home under contract and the payment works, my advice is plain: if you like it, lock it. Floating is a bet. Also remember that quotes gathered on different days are not comparable. A quote from last Tuesday and one from today reflect different markets.
Step five: look at the full menu. Conventional is not the only path. Some borrowers, including self-employed buyers and investors, qualify on different documentation. Our loan options page carries the current guidelines, subject to lender guidelines, and it is the place to start. Investors who use interest-only structures should also read how an interest-only period changes coverage math on a DSCR loan.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file.
For the end-to-end picture of how these loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the Fed’s rate hike mean my mortgage rate is going up by the same amount?
No. The Fed sets an overnight target. Mortgage rates follow longer-term yields, mainly the 10-year Treasury. The Fed raised its target by 25 basis points on September 16, 2026. Mortgage benchmarks had already been climbing for weeks before that.
Is Freddie Mac’s 7.03% what I will pay?
Not necessarily. Freddie Mac’s survey for the week of September 24, 2026 covers conventional, conforming purchase loans for borrowers with 20% down and excellent credit. Your rate depends on your credit, your down payment, your property and the day you lock. Treat the survey as a direction gauge, not a quote. Every figure here varies by lender and program — guidelines, property type, leverage, and credit profile all apply.
Should I wait for rates to come back down?
It depends on your situation, and nobody knows the path. The MBA’s data shows buyers pulling back, and inventory is at its highest supply level in over ten years. If your budget works today and you found a home you like, waiting is a bet. If your budget only worked in August, waiting or adjusting your target price may make sense.
Are home prices falling?
Not nationally. NAR’s median existing-home price was $429,100 in August, up 1.6% from a year earlier. Redfin’s median sale price was up 2%. New-home prices are down, but that figure swings with the mix of homes sold. Discounts come mostly through negotiation and builder incentives.
If I’m self-employed, can I still buy this fall?
Often yes, through programs that qualify on documentation other than standard tax-return income. Those programs vary, and lender guidelines apply. The loan options page has the current details. Credit availability may also be tightening at the margin, so build your file early and expect questions.
About Lendmire
As a mortgage broker (NMLS# 2371349), Lendmire arranges DSCR investor loans in 40 states plus Washington, D.C. — 41 markets — and, on its consumer platform, bank statement, home equity and down payment assistance financing in 16 states, through wholesale lenders. Lendmire never underwrites or funds a loan itself. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
1. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
2. MBA Weekly Applications Survey, September 23, 2026
3. CNBC: Fed rate decision, September 16, 2026
4. CNBC: 10-year Treasury yield, September 28, 2026
5. NAR: August existing-home sales
6. HousingWire: August existing-home sales
7. Inman: August new-home sales
8. Census/HUD New Residential Sales
9. CNBC: 10-year yield explainer, September 26, 2026
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: Understanding the Cost of Waiting to Buy a Home · Are There Any Extras Included when I Buy Real Estate? · Should You Make Extra Mortgage Payments? What to Know
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
- Mortgage Loan Originator · NMLS# 1129696 · Verify on NMLS Consumer Access
- North Carolina Real Estate Broker · License# 343312 · Verify on NCREC
- North Carolina Insurance Producer · License# 19053198 · Property, Casualty, Life, Health · Verify on NAIC SBS
- Lendmire LLC · Firm NMLS# 2371349 · Verify firm licensure
Disclosure information. Lendmire is a state-licensed mortgage brokerage under NMLS# 2371349. Lendmire is not a depository institution, direct lender, or financial advisor — all loans referenced are placed through wholesale lender partners and are subject to each lender's underwriting standards. This article is provided for general informational purposes and is not a commitment to lend, nor does it constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. Loan programs, terms, rates, and qualification standards change without notice and depend on borrower profile, property type, and the state in which the subject property is located. Equal Housing Opportunity provider. NMLS Consumer Access: nmlsconsumeraccess.org.