The Quick Read: Because leverage is a national headline but a neighborhood fact. As of September 28, 2026, resale supply is at its highest in over ten years, builders are cutting prices, and sellers are handing out concessions. Rates have climbed four weeks running. A national number cannot tell you what one street will do.
A local broker’s read on comparable sales, seller motivation and what concession works on a given block is how buyers turn that leverage into a signed contract. Without it, the leverage mostly sits unused.
Here is the case, built from the data alone.
What Changed This Month
Resale supply hit a decade high. NAR’s August existing-home sales report, released September 10, 2026, showed sales down 2.0% from July. The seasonally adjusted annual pace fell to 3.98 million, the first reading below 4.0 million since June 2025. Inventory reached 1.62 million homes, the first time it topped 1.6 million since November 2019.
Months of supply climbed to 4.9, up from 4.6 in July. NAR’s Lawrence Yun called it the highest level in over ten years and said it gives buyers better opportunities to negotiate. The median price was $429,100, up 1.6% from a year earlier.
Read that last number twice. Sales fell. Supply rose. The median price still rose. Leverage is not the same thing as falling prices.
Builders are discounting. The NAHB builder sentiment index, released September 16, 2026, fell 3 points to 32, a 12-month low. Thirty-eight percent of builders cut prices, up from 35% in August. The average cut was 6% for the sixth straight month. Sixty-six percent used incentives, up from 63%.
Sellers are conceding. Redfin’s data, reported by Fortune on September 26, 2026, showed sellers gave concessions in 44.7% of August sales. That is up 2.1 percentage points from a year earlier and the highest August share since at least 2020.
Rates moved against buyers. Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week ended September 24, 2026, up from 6.95% the prior week. A year earlier it was 6.30%. That is the fourth straight weekly rise: 5, 5, 19 and 8 basis points, from the releases dated September 3, 10, 17 and 24.
Freddie’s number lags, because it averages prior days. CNBC reported Mortgage News Daily’s daily index at 7.45% on September 24, 2026, the highest since April 2024. Two indexes, two readings, same direction.
On September 16, 2026, the Federal Reserve raised its target range by a quarter point, to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, on a 12–0 vote. The Fed sets an overnight rate. Mortgage rates follow longer-term yields. They are related, not identical.
What Does Buyer Leverage Actually Look Like?
Leverage rarely shows up as a lower sticker price. It shows up as time, credits and terms.
Redfin’s September 3, 2026 release had the median asking price down just 0.1% from a year earlier. NAR had the median sale price up. Both can be true. The concession figure above is where the action is: nearly half of sales included one.
Time matters too. On September 17, 2026, Redfin reported pending sales fell 3.5% week over week to their lowest level in nearly three years. Fewer buyers means sellers wait longer for an offer.
Then there is the buyer count. Redfin’s September 10, 2026 report found sellers outnumbered buyers by 58% in August, the widest gap in its records: about 1.53 million sellers against about 972,300 buyers. The MBA’s weekly survey, released September 23, 2026, showed purchase applications 11% below a year earlier on an unadjusted basis.
Fewer buyers, more listings, and sellers who have to pay attention. That is leverage.
Why the National Number Can’t Price Your Street
Here is where the argument turns.
Redfin counts just five seller’s markets nationally. It named Nashville, Miami and Houston as the strongest buyer’s markets, while San Francisco and New York suburbs stayed seller-friendly. NAR’s regional detail, via HousingWire on September 10, 2026, had the West flat while the Northeast, Midwest and South all fell.
Now zoom in. Inside any one metro, one school district can be flat while the next is soft. One block of condos can be full of price cuts while the single-family streets nearby hold firm. Nothing in a national release tells you which is which.
Even the supply figures disagree with each other. NAR’s 4.9 months is a decade high. Redfin’s own pages show about four months of supply, because the two firms measure it differently. Realtor.com adds a third angle: its September 10, 2026 report said active listings remain about 11% below pre-pandemic levels.
So is this a buyer’s market? The honest answer is “which one?” My view: anyone who gives you a one-word answer for the whole country is selling something.
What a Local Broker Actually Does With That Leverage
A broker who works one area every week carries information a dashboard doesn’t. Three things matter most when buyers hold the upper hand.
Pricing read. Sellers who listed at spring prices are now sitting on stale listings. A local broker can tell which asking prices are anchored to old comparable sales and which are realistic. Offer too low on the second kind and you lose the house. Offer full price on the first and you overpay.
Which concession fits. Not every ask works. Some sellers would rather cut the price. Others would rather give a credit toward closing costs or repairs, because it protects the number their neighbors see. Knowing which kind of seller you’re dealing with is local knowledge. So is knowing what similar sellers on that street accepted last month.
Reading motivation. A vacant listing, a relocating owner, a home that has sat through a price drop: these are signals. They are visible to someone who has watched the block. They are invisible in an aggregate.
I want to be careful here. I’m not claiming a broker guarantees a discount. Leverage is real, but so are the costs of misreading it. The value is in avoiding the two expensive mistakes: leaving money on the table, or losing the house by pushing too hard.
New Construction Is a Different Game
Builders have 8.5 months of supply, per the Census Bureau’s new residential sales release from about September 23, 2026. Resale supply is 4.9 months. That gap explains why incentives come from builders while resale sellers negotiate one by one.
New-home sales rose in August compared with July, according to the Census Bureau’s new residential sales report. But the report carries wide margins of error, and the July-to-August change sits inside them. I wouldn’t call it a rebound.
HousingWire reported on September 17, 2026 that builders are leaning on rate buydowns and closing-cost help, and that one public builder’s margin fell from 23.2% to 17.6% as incentives grew. NAHB’s Bill Owens said buyer traffic has weakened largely because of rising mortgage rates.
The lesson for buyers: a builder’s advertised incentive is the opening position, not the floor. And the incentive is usually tied to the builder’s own financing choices. Comparing that package against outside financing is the kind of side-by-side a broker, on the mortgage or the real estate side, can lay out for you. Our loan options page carries the current guidelines for the programs we broker, subject to lender guidelines.
My Take
Leverage is real, but it is thin and uneven.
Prices are not collapsing. Supply is up, sellers are conceding, and rates are punishing buyers at the same time. That mix means the affordability gain from a concession can be wiped out by a rate move. If a 30-year rate moves from 6.75% to 7.75%, the change is a full point, and no seller credit on a typical file makes that up on its own. That is a hypothetical, not a quote.
There is one more twist. NAR’s Housing Affordability Index was 104.7 in August, up from 101.2 a year earlier, per the September 11, 2026 report relayed by Mortgage News Daily. It moved opposite to rates, likely because incomes and modest price gains offset the rate rise. Affordability is not simply “rates up, everything worse.”
My read: this is a negotiating market, not a bargain market. Negotiating markets reward the buyer with the best information and the calmest head. Bargain markets reward anyone with a pulse.
Also, don’t over-read the calendar. Realtor.com’s report named September 27 to October 3 as the best week to buy this year, projecting listing prices 3.5% below their seasonal peak. Those are seasonal projections from historical patterns, not measurements. Treat the week as a hint, not a deadline.
What I’d Do Now
None of this is advice to buy or sell any particular home. It is how I’d approach the decision if I were the buyer.
1. Get the local read before you tour. Ask for recent sold prices on the specific streets you like, not the metro median. Ask how many listings there have cut their price and by how much.
2. Decide which concession you want. A price cut, a closing-cost credit and a rate buydown are different tools. Pick before you negotiate, not during.
3. Talk to a mortgage broker early. Rate moves are the biggest swing factor in this market. A broker can compare programs from different lenders on the same day, which matters because quotes gathered on different days are not comparable when rates are moving this fast.
4. Know what a lock does. A rate lock holds a quoted rate for a set period while your purchase moves forward. If rates keep rising and the deal works, waiting to lock is a bet. If you like the deal, lock it.
5. Don’t confuse the headline with your file. Freddie Mac’s survey covers conventional, conforming purchase loans for borrowers with 20% down and excellent credit, per its September 17, 2026 release. Self-employed borrowers and investors are often not that borrower. Programs built for them qualify on different documentation, and the related DSCR article on first-time Airbnb buyers shows how terms can differ by borrower type.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file.
For the end-to-end picture of how these loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it a buyer’s market right now?
In many places, yes, but not everywhere. NAR’s August report shows 4.9 months of supply, the highest in over ten years. Redfin counts only five seller’s markets nationally, and San Francisco and New York suburbs are among them. The answer depends on the neighborhood.
Do falling home sales mean prices are falling?
Not so far. NAR reported August sales down 2.0% from July, yet the median price rose 1.6% from a year earlier. Redfin’s median asking price was down 0.1% in early September. Leverage is showing up more in concessions and time on market than in headline prices.
Why did mortgage rates keep rising if the Fed only moved a quarter point?
The Fed sets a short-term overnight target. Mortgage rates track longer-term yields and bond market spreads, which can move faster. Freddie Mac’s survey rose four straight weeks through September 24, 2026, and daily indexes ran higher than the weekly average.
Should I wait for a better week to buy?
Realtor.com’s best-week claim rests on historical seasonal patterns, not a guarantee. Rates, inventory and your own finances matter more than a calendar date. If a home works and the numbers hold, waiting only adds rate risk.
Are builder incentives a better deal than negotiating on a resale home?
It depends on the incentive and the alternative. NAHB reported 66% of builders using incentives in September 2026, and new-home supply is 8.5 months against 4.9 for resale. Compare a builder’s package against outside financing before you accept it.
About Lendmire
As a mortgage broker (NMLS# 2371349), Lendmire arranges DSCR investor loans in 40 states plus Washington, D.C. — 41 markets — and, on its consumer platform, bank statement, home equity and down payment assistance financing in 16 states, through wholesale lenders. Lendmire never underwrites or funds a loan itself. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
1. NAR August 2026 existing-home sales report
2. NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, September 2026
3. Fortune
4. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
5. Federal Reserve FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
6. MBA Weekly Applications Survey
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: Buying & Selling High-End Real Estate · What Should I Do First: Sell My Home or Buy a New Home? · DSCR Cash Out Refinance Laredo Texas
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
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Disclosure information. Lendmire is a state-licensed mortgage brokerage under NMLS# 2371349. Lendmire is not a depository institution, direct lender, or financial advisor — all loans referenced are placed through wholesale lender partners and are subject to each lender's underwriting standards. This article is provided for general informational purposes and is not a commitment to lend, nor does it constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. Loan programs, terms, rates, and qualification standards change without notice and depend on borrower profile, property type, and the state in which the subject property is located. Equal Housing Opportunity provider. NMLS Consumer Access: nmlsconsumeraccess.org.