The Quick Read: As of September 28, 2026, borrowing costs are climbing and the Fed has raised its target range for the first time in more than three years. A new owner’s payment is hard to trim, but the utility bill is still yours to manage. Builders are cutting prices and offering incentives, so a new-home buyer has room to negotiate for efficiency features and other concessions.
Key Takeaways
- Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, 2026, up from 6.95% the week before.
- The Fed raised its target range by 25 basis points on September 16, 2026. Borrowing costs are unlikely to fall soon on their own.
- Builders are leaning on price cuts and incentives, per the National Association of Home Builders’ September survey, so a new-home buyer has leverage.
- Once you own the house, the utility bill is one of the few housing costs you control. Residential electricity prices are rising.
- Ask for efficiency features in the contract, not after closing.
What Changed This Month
Rates moved up, and they moved in steps. Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, 2026. That was up 8 basis points from the week before and 73 basis points above a year earlier. Freddie’s survey covers conventional, conforming purchase loans. Not every borrower looks like that.
Three weeks earlier, the survey for the week of September 3 showed 6.71%. Early in the year was much lower. In February, Freddie recorded a low of 6.01%. So the latest reading sits about a full point above that low.
Different publishers show different numbers. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey for the week ending September 18 put its 30-year contract rate at 7.12%, up from 6.97%. Its chief economist called that the highest since May 2024. Mortgage News Daily’s index, which tracks the market day by day, read 7.45% on September 24. It argues that Freddie’s weekly average lags because it averages the prior week.
Nobody is wrong here. The methods differ. That’s also why quotes gathered on different days aren’t comparable.
The Fed did its part. On September 16, 2026, the FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the target range by 25 basis points to 3¾–4%. The statement says inflation remains elevated. CNBC called it the first hike in more than three years and reported that officials split on 2027: eight pointed to another hike, six to holding, four to cuts.
One correction to a common misreading. The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates. The 10-year Treasury yield is the bigger driver. The MBA’s chart of the week put it close to 5.2%, versus about 4% in February, and said the 30-year rate was up 30 basis points over the past month. That yield figure is the MBA’s characterization, not a Treasury print.
The demand side shows the strain. A published survey for the week ending September 18, released September 23, showed its Refinance Index down 3% on the week and 62% below a year earlier. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index slipped 1%. In that same MBA survey, the share of applications for adjustable-rate mortgages climbed to its highest level in recent weeks, a sign that rate-sensitive buyers are looking at other structures. Terms vary by lender guidelines, property type, leverage, credit profile, and full file review.
What Rising Rates Mean for New-Home Buyers
Builders are absorbing part of the pain. The NAHB’s September survey, published September 16, showed builder sentiment down 3 points to 32. Thirty-eight percent of builders cut prices, up from 35% in August. The average cut was 6%, the sixth straight month at that level. Sixty-six percent used incentives, the highest since December. NAHB’s chairman blamed rising rates for weaker buyer traffic.
A published report, released September 24, adds the supply side. Inventory of new homes for sale was sizable, equal to roughly an 8.5-month supply at the current sales pace. Sales rose from July but remained slightly below their level a year earlier, and the median price was also lower than it was a year ago.
Don’t over-read it. Inman noted on September 25 that Census margins of error are large, and only the 8.8% drop in the average price was statistically significant. And July’s figure was revised up, so August’s gain is a snapback, not a proven trend.
Here’s the point. A large inventory plus builders who want to move homes means negotiating room. Existing owners with low-rate mortgages remain reluctant to sell, which keeps resale supply tight in many places. New construction is where sellers are actively bargaining.
An incentive isn’t automatically a lower price. It may be a rate buydown, a closing credit or an upgrade package. I found no dated source that quantifies which type is most common. So read the contract, not the headline.
Why the Utility Bill Matters More Now
A higher borrowing cost is locked into the loan once you close. The utility bill isn’t. It moves with how you build, equip and run the house.
The trend is not helpful. The Energy Information Administration’s July 2026 data, updated August 26, showed the average residential electricity price up 4.9% from July 2025. Residential retail sales rose 1.0%.
That’s the national average. Your own utility may differ. But the direction is clear: power is getting more expensive while borrowing costs rise. If you can’t easily cut the loan cost, cut what you can.
I found no dated source on what builders charge for efficiency upgrades, or on the status of tax credits. So I won’t put numbers on either. What I can say is structural, and it’s an opinion: a feature built in during construction is almost always cheaper to add than one retrofitted later.
My Take
Buyers waiting for spring 2021 to return are going to wait a long time. The Fed just hiked. Its own projections show the median 2026 dot rising to 4.1%, per TD Economics’ read of the September projections, which implies another hike by year-end. Futures pricing differs by source on how many more.
Nobody knows where rates land. The MBA’s forecast averages near 6.8% in coming quarters, below today’s readings. That’s a forecast, not a promise. I wouldn’t plan a purchase around it.
My read: the smart new-home buyer this fall treats the contract as the place to win. You can’t negotiate the market’s rate. You can negotiate the builder’s side of the deal.
That includes efficiency. Builders cutting prices 6% on average are already conceding something. Asking for better insulation, a better HVAC system, efficient windows or a heat-pump water heater is a reasonable ask. Some builders will say yes. Some will say no and offer a closing credit instead. Either answer tells you something.
Thinking out loud for a moment: is a bigger credit better than better equipment? Often the equipment wins, because a credit is spent once while the efficiency pays back every month. But a credit is flexible, and some buyers need the cash. It’s a genuine toss-up, and it depends on your budget and the builder’s offer.
What I’d Do Now
Shop the contract, not just the rate. Ask each builder what incentives are on the table and which are negotiable. Get them in writing. Ask whether the incentive is a buydown, a credit, a price cut or upgrades.
Ask for the efficiency spec sheet. Insulation, windows, heating and cooling equipment, water heater and air sealing. Compare across builders. Two houses at the same price can have very different running costs.
Get a third-party inspection. Brand-new does not mean flawless. Air leaks and poor duct work show up in new builds too. Catch them before closing, when the builder still has to fix them.
Understand your loan options early. Different borrowers qualify differently. A salaried buyer, a self-employed buyer and someone buying a rental all go through different programs. Our loan options page carries the current guidelines, subject to lender guidelines and your file. I’m not stating any program figures in this column.
If you like a quote, lock it. A rate lock is an agreement that holds a quoted rate for a set period while your loan moves forward. Floating means you haven’t locked and the rate can move either way. In a market that rose four weeks out of the last several, floating is a bet. Only you can decide whether you can absorb being wrong. And remember that quotes from different days aren’t comparable, because the market moved between them.
Consider structure, but read the fine print. ARM share hit 9.8% in the MBA’s survey for a reason. An adjustable loan can lower the starting cost, but it can reset later. If you’re weighing one, understand the adjustment rules before you sign.
Run your own numbers. Plan for taxes, insurance and utilities, which all vary by location. A cheaper house with expensive utilities can cost more to run than a pricier efficient one.
If you already own and you’re thinking about equity, see record home equity meets rising rates for how that squeeze works.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file. Call 828-256-2183.
For the end-to-end picture of how these loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did mortgage rates move above a key threshold this month, and does it depend on the source?
Yes, by some measures. Mortgage News Daily said its daily index first broke 7% on September 10. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey reached 7.03% only for the week of September 24, because it averages the prior week. Both can be true at once.
Why do the readings from Freddie Mac, the MBA and Mortgage News Daily all come out different?
Each measures something different. Freddie Mac averages conventional, conforming purchase loans. The MBA uses its own contract-rate survey. Mortgage News Daily tracks the market daily. Expect gaps of several tenths of a point. None of them is your personal quote.
Are new-home prices falling?
Some measures say so. Census reported the August median at $393,700, down 5.8% from a year earlier, but that change wasn’t statistically significant. The average price fell 8.8%, which was. Meanwhile, NAR reported the existing-home median up 1.6% from a year earlier for August. The picture is mixed.
Does a builder incentive lower my purchase price?
Not necessarily. It could be a rate buydown, a closing credit or an upgrade package instead. Ask for the terms in writing and compare them as a package. I found no dated source that measures which type is most common right now.
Will the Fed raise rates again?
It’s unclear. In the September projections, eight officials pointed to another hike in 2027, six to holding and four to cuts. Futures pricing also differs by source. I wouldn’t build a purchase plan on a forecast.
About Lendmire
Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) is a non-QM mortgage brokerage arranging DSCR investor loans in 41 markets — 40 states plus Washington, D.C. — and consumer mortgage programs, including bank statement, HELOC and down payment assistance options, in 16 states through wholesale lenders. Lendmire is the broker, never the lender; every file is underwritten by the lender under its own guidelines. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
1. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
2. Federal Reserve FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
4. NAHB, builder sentiment, September 2026
5. Inman, August new-home sales
6. TD Economics, FOMC statement
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: Why A Local Real Estate Broker Matters As Buyers Gain Leverage, September 2026? · September 2026: Buyers Need A Real Estate Agent As Supply Grows, Rates Climb · Listing Your Home For Sale This Fall As Inventory Climbs And Rates Rise
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
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Important disclosures. Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) is a licensed mortgage brokerage. Lendmire is not a direct lender, depository institution, or financial advisor. All loan inquiries are subject to lender underwriting; this article does not constitute a commitment to lend. Rates, terms, and program guidelines are subject to change without notice and vary by borrower profile, property type, and state. Information in this article is general in nature and is not financial, legal, or tax advice. Equal Housing Opportunity. NMLS Consumer Access: nmlsconsumeraccess.org.