The Quick Read: As of September 28, 2026, the old holiday-buying case has data behind it. NAR’s August report showed more inventory and more months of supply, and builders are cutting prices and offering incentives. But Freddie Mac’s weekly survey has climbed for five straight weeks, and a buyer who waits for a deeper discount may give back the leverage in financing costs. My read: leverage is real but modest, and the rate side of the trade is moving against you.
I’m writing this as of September 2026, and every figure below carries its source and date. One housekeeping note on streaks. The angle I started with said “four straight weeks.” The Freddie Mac data says five. The weekly averages have risen since the survey of August 27, and four of those increases fall inside September. I’ll use the larger count.
Key Takeaways
- NAR’s report of September 10 showed existing-home sales at a 3.98 million annual rate, with inventory at 1.62 million and supply at 4.9 months.
- Freddie Mac’s 30-year average rose to 7.03% for the week of September 24, up 38 basis points from the August 20 survey.
- Builders are the clearest source of discounts: 66% used incentives in September.
- Waiting for a deeper holiday discount is a bet on price and rate at once. Nothing I found sizes how deep any discount will get.
- Your financing structure may matter more this fall than the last few percent of price.
What Changed This Month?
Three things moved in five weeks: rates, the Fed and the supply picture. Rates rose sharply, the Fed hiked for the first time in a while, and August housing data showed buyers with more to choose from. Those forces pull in opposite directions, and that is the whole story of this column.
Start with rates. Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, 2026, up from 6.95% the week before. A year earlier the same survey averaged 6.30%. That is a gap of about 73 basis points (a basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point). The week of September 17 carried the biggest single step, a 19-basis-point jump.
The streak itself is easy to lay out. Freddie Mac reported 6.66% for the week of August 27, then 6.71% on September 3, 6.76% on September 10, 6.95% on September 17 and 7.03% on September 24. The September 24 release quoted Freddie Mac’s chief economist saying the market remains supported by a solid labor market.
The other rate measures tell the same story at different levels. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey, released September 23, put its average contract rate for 30-year conforming loans at 7.12% for the week ending September 18, up from 6.97%. The MBA’s chief economist called it the highest level since May 2024. Mortgage News Daily’s index closed at 7.43% on September 25. Those three numbers differ because they use different methods, samples and days. Don’t blend them. Freddie Mac’s figure is a national average of conventional loans, not an offered rate, and it doesn’t describe non-QM borrowers at all.
Now the Fed. The Federal Reserve’s statement of September 16 showed a unanimous 12–0 vote to raise the target range by a quarter point, to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. The statement says inflation remains elevated. The July minutes had shown the committee holding the range one step lower.
Here is a point that gets lost. Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury yield more closely than the Fed’s target. They started climbing well before September 16. CNBC reported the 10-year at 5.234% on September 28, and the MBA noted it was near 4% in February. The MBA attributes the move to higher energy prices tied to the Iran war, higher inflation, expectations of tighter policy and rising federal debt.
Where Did Buyers Gain Ground?
Buyers gained on supply, and supply is where leverage comes from. NAR’s August report, released September 10, is the best evidence for the holiday-discount story.
Existing-home sales fell from July to a 3.98 million annual rate, and they were down from a year earlier. It was the first reading below 4.0 million since June 2025. Inventory reached 1.62 million, up from August 2025, and the first time since November 2019 it topped 1.6 million. Supply stood at 4.9 months, up from 4.6 months. NAR’s chief economist said the ample supply is giving buyers better opportunities to negotiate.
Typical time on the market was 31 days in August, up from 29, per NAHB’s Eye On Housing analysis of the NAR data. First-time buyers made up 30% of August sales, up from 28% a year earlier. That is a share, not a verdict on how they’re doing. It says only that their slice edged up.
Builders are the other pressure valve. NAHB’s builder survey, released September 16, showed 66% of builders using sales incentives, up from 63% in August. The average price cut held at 6% for a sixth month. Builder confidence fell three points to 32, and NAHB’s chairman said buyer traffic has weakened across much of the country, largely because of rising mortgage rates. Builders also use rate buydowns and closing-cost help. A buydown means the builder pays to reduce the buyer’s interest rate for a period.
Census reported new-home supply at 8.5 months in August, against 4.9 months for existing homes. That gap is why builders are the ones bargaining. Realtor.com’s analysis ties into the same picture. Its Best Time to Buy report named the week of September 27 to October 3 as the most favorable balance of inventory, price and competition this year, with listings up as much as 31.9% from the start of the year. It also projects listing prices 3.5% below their seasonal peak.
How Much Leverage Is This, Really?
Less than the headlines imply. I’d call it leverage with an asterisk. Supply is better than last year, but 4.9 months sits inside what NAHB’s economists treat as a balanced range, which they put at 4.5 to 6 months.
Prices tell the same story. NAR’s median existing-home price rose 1.6% from a year earlier, the 38th straight month of annual gains, at $429,100. Sales are still up 1.6% year to date through eight months, so “the market is crashing” doesn’t hold up. Inventory also remains 11.1% below typical pre-pandemic levels, according to Realtor.com data summarized by Calculated Risk.
The new-home numbers need careful reading. The Census median new-home price was $393,700, down 5.8% from a year earlier. But the agency did not find that change statistically significant. The average price fell 8.8%, and that change was significant, but it partly reflects the mix of homes sold. So when someone says builders are slashing prices, check the source. The NAHB figure is a 6% average cut, and it applies to the 38% of builders cutting at all.
And timing matters. NAR’s August data predates most of September’s rate climb. I can’t tell you whether the rate shock has cooled buyer demand, and neither can anyone else yet. The MBA’s applications survey gives a hint: the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index fell 1% for the week ending September 18, and the unadjusted index was 11% below a year earlier. NAR’s September report, due October 13, is the first real test.
Does Waiting for a Deeper Discount Pay?
It pays only if the discount grows faster than your financing cost. That is a bet on two moving pieces, and right now one of them is moving against you.
Run a hypothetical, not a forecast. If a 30-year rate moves from 6.65% to 7.03%, as Freddie Mac’s average did between August 20 and September 24, that is a 38-basis-point change on the same loan. Say a seller trims the price to offset it. The buyer has then only broken even on cost, and the seller got nothing for the wait. Now add the inventory side. NAR’s write-up of the Realtor.com report says buyers who wait longer could see greater savings but may miss out on having more options to choose from. Fewer homes, a rate that may keep rising, and a discount of unknown size. That is the trade.
Is there a case for waiting? Yes, and I’ll give it fairly. Seasonal demand does fall into November and December. Sellers who list in the holidays tend to have a reason. Days on market are already lengthening. If rates stabilize or ease, a buyer who waited could capture both a lower price and a lower rate. The Fed’s dot plot gives no comfort on that last point. I’d treat a rate decline as a hope, not a plan. The MBA’s own forecast is for rates nearer 6.8% in coming quarters, but forecasts like that have a poor record against an energy and inflation shock.
My read: the buyers best placed are the ones who can move on a home they like now, using today’s leverage, and structure the financing to give them room later. The ones in trouble are those treating the holidays as a guaranteed markdown.
What It Means for Different Buyers
The effect depends on who you are. Here’s how I’d sort it, using only what the dated data supports.
| Buyer type | What the data shows | Source date |
|---|---|---|
| New-home buyer | Most concrete leverage: incentives and buydowns | NAHB, Sept. 16 |
| Existing-home buyer | More choice, modest negotiating room | NAR, Sept. 10 |
| First-time buyer | Share of sales edged up to 30% | Eye On Housing, Sept. 2026 |
| Buyer weighing an ARM | ARM share reached 9.8% of applications | MBA, Sept. 23 |
| Refinancer | Refinance Index 62% below a year ago | MBA, Sept. 23 |
New-home buyers have the clearest upside. Builders have more supply and a stated need to move it, and the incentives are documented. That leverage often arrives as a rate buydown or closing-cost credit rather than a lower sticker price, which can suit a buyer better in a rising-rate month. I’d weigh a builder’s credit against the price cut a seller might take on an existing home. They are not the same value.
Existing-home buyers have more options and a bit more negotiating room. NAR’s own economist said as much. But price growth is still positive, so this isn’t a buyer’s market in the classic sense.
ARMs deserve a plain definition. An adjustable-rate mortgage has a rate that’s fixed for an initial period and can then change. The MBA reported ARM share at 9.8% in its September 23 release, a sign buyers are reaching for lower starting rates. That can make sense for a buyer with a short horizon, and it carries real risk for one without. I’d never pick an ARM only to hit an entry number. It needs a plan for the reset.
Refinancers have little to do. The MBA said refinancing fell to its slowest pace since February 2025. And owners who hold low first-mortgage rates have a different option, which is borrowing against equity. HousingWire, on September 14, summarized a white paper putting homeowner equity at $34.9 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, with about $11 trillion considered tappable. That is context for why so many owners are staying put, which keeps resale supply thin.
What about investors and self-employed borrowers? I found no dated public data on either group in the last 45 days, so I won’t guess at their behavior. The mechanics still matter for them. A buyer who is reviewed on business cash flow or on a rental property’s income rather than on W-2 pay may have a different path than the conventional average that Freddie Mac measures. Those programs are subject to lender guidelines, and the loan options page carries the current details.
My Take
Leverage is real this fall. Rates are working against it. Both are true, and the honest answer for most buyers is to stop waiting for a clean signal.
Here is my opinion, stated as one. The holiday discount story is a good story with a thin sizing problem. No source I reviewed projects how deep any holiday discount will get. Realtor.com says the seasonal balance peaks in the week of September 27, which is this week. That argues the favorable window is now, not December. NAR’s write-up warns that waiting trades selection for savings.
Second, I think buyers overweight price and underweight financing structure. A seller’s concession or a builder’s buydown can be worth as much as a price cut, and sometimes more when rates are rising. Ask what the whole deal costs, not only what the listing says.
Third, I’d be careful about reading “rates up” as “rates will keep going up.” Five straight weekly gains is momentum, not destiny. The Fed could hold, energy prices could ease, and the 10-year could retreat. It could also go the other way. Thinking out loud, the most I can say with confidence is that a buyer who needs to be in a home by year-end should plan for today’s environment, not for one that may not arrive.
What I’d Do Now
This is practical, not advice to buy or sell any particular home. These steps hold up whichever way rates go.
Get your financing in order before you shop. A preapproval from a lender shows a seller you are serious, and it tells you what you can borrow before you fall for a house. Gather documents early, because the holiday calendar shortens everyone’s hours.
Understand lock mechanics. A rate lock is an agreement that holds an interest rate for a set period while your loan is processed. Floating means you haven’t locked and the rate can move. In a month when the survey has risen five weeks running, floating is a wager. My rule of thumb: if the deal works at today’s number and you like the home, lock. A lock doesn’t predict anything. It removes one variable.
Compare quotes from the same day. Quotes gathered on different days are not comparable, because the market moved between them. If you’re shopping lenders or brokers, collect them together and ask each to put the same loan type and the same assumptions on paper.
Negotiate the package. With supply up, ask for closing-cost help, repairs or a builder buydown rather than only a lower price. On new construction, ask what incentive is on offer and what it’s worth. On resales, days on market (31 in August, per NAR data) is a fair clue about a seller’s patience.
Match the loan to the borrower. If your income is irregular, or you’re buying a rental, a conventional checklist may not fit. A broker can compare programs from several lenders at once, which is what I’d want in a rising-rate month. If you’re weighing a second home as well, our pieces on a vacation home in Wolfeboro and on buying a vacation home in Windermere cover how those purchases are financed.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file.
For the end-to-end picture of how these loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is now a good time to buy a home?
It’s a better time than last spring for negotiating and a worse time for financing. NAR’s August data shows supply at 4.9 months and inventory at a level not seen since November 2019, while Freddie Mac’s average sits at 7.03% for the week of September 24. Whether that nets out for you depends on how long you plan to stay and how much payment room you have.
Will mortgage rates fall before the holidays?
Nobody can say, and I won’t pretend to. The MBA’s forecast is for rates near 6.8% in coming quarters, but the Fed just raised its target range and called inflation elevated. The 10-year Treasury yield, which mortgage rates follow most closely, rose again on September 28. Plan for today’s environment.
Should I wait for a bigger holiday discount?
Only if you can afford to lose both selection and rate. NAR’s write-up of the Realtor.com analysis says waiting may bring greater savings but fewer options. No source I reviewed sizes the extra discount. If you find a home that fits, the certainty may be worth more than a hoped-for markdown.
Why do Freddie Mac, the MBA and Mortgage News Daily show different benchmarks?
They measure different things on different days. Freddie Mac reports a weekly national average drawn from conventional loans. The MBA reports an average contract figure from its applications survey. Mortgage News Daily publishes a daily index. Compare a source against its own past readings, not against the others.
Are builders really cutting prices?
Some are, and more are offering incentives. NAHB’s September 16 survey found 38% of builders cutting prices, with an average cut of 6%, and 66% using incentives. Census data on the median new-home price, down 5.8% from a year ago, was not statistically significant, so don’t over-read it. Ask any builder what the incentive is worth to you.
About Lendmire
Lendmire, NMLS# 2371349, is a mortgage broker with two platforms: DSCR investor lending across 41 markets, including Washington, D.C., and consumer mortgage programs in 16 states, all arranged through wholesale lending partners. This column is written by Lendmire’s founder and reflects the market as of its publication date; program terms and availability are set by the lender on each file. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
1. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
2. Federal Reserve FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
3. NAR existing-home sales report, August 2026
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: Why A Local Real Estate Broker Matters As Buyers Gain Leverage, September 2026? · September 2026: Buyers Need A Real Estate Agent As Supply Grows, Rates Climb · Listing Your Home For Sale This Fall As Inventory Climbs And Rates Rise
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Compliance and disclosures. Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) is a licensed mortgage broker and is not a direct lender, depository institution, financial advisor, or tax professional. Content in this article is general market analysis and educational information — not financial, legal, or tax advice for any specific situation. Lendmire does not guarantee loan approval; every transaction is subject to underwriting by the funding lender. Mortgage pricing and loan program guidelines are subject to change at any time without notice and vary by borrower characteristics, property type, and state regulations. Lendmire complies with Equal Housing Opportunity. Licensure verification: NMLS Consumer Access.