The Quick Read: Less than you could a month ago, and I’d re-run your debt-to-income math before you shop another house. As of September 28, 2026, the 30-year fixed average has climbed for weeks, the Fed has hiked, and the 10-year Treasury yield sits near a 19-year high. Buyers have more room to negotiate than they’ve had in years. Higher rates cap how much of that room you can use.
Here is the column in full, dated as of September 28, 2026. Every figure below names its source and its date. I’ve left out payment dollar amounts on purpose. Your payment depends on your file, your lender and the day you lock, and no national column can tell you that.
What Changed in September
The facts, in order: the Fed hiked, yields spiked, and mortgage rates followed. The Fed raised its target range by a quarter point on September 16. Long-term yields were already rising before that meeting. Mortgage rates track long-term yields, not the Fed’s overnight rate, so the hike was more a sign of the pressure than the cause of it.
Start with the Fed. The Federal Reserve’s FOMC statement of September 16 was approved by a 12–0 vote. The Atlanta Fed’s posting of that statement shows the target range now at 3-3/4 to 4 percent. It was the Fed’s first hike since July 2023, and it followed five straight holds, per TD Economics. The same note says the median projection for 2026 points to another possible hike by year-end.
Now the bond market, which matters more for your mortgage. CNBC reported the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.041% on September 15, the highest since July 2007. CNN reported it at 5.11% on September 23, after a 15 basis point jump in a day. It started the year at 4.15%. By September 25, CNBC put it at 5.23%. (A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point. Fifteen of them in a day is a big move.)
Why are yields rising? The sources disagree on the weighting. Semafor pointed to deficits, US–Iran tensions, oil, hawkish Fed commentary and a weak note auction. CNBC’s guest argued bond issuance matters more this year than inflation. I’d call it a pile-up of reasons. Nobody can say which one breaks first.
Then the mortgage rate itself. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey is the benchmark most people quote. Its September 3 release put the 30-year fixed at 6.71%, up from 6.66%. The September 10 release showed 6.76%. Freddie Mac’s September 17 release showed 6.95%. For the week of September 24, Fox Business reported 7.03%, the first reading above 7% since January 2025.
Four straight weekly gains, then. That’s where the title’s “four weeks” comes from. The same survey showed 6.65% on August 20. That is 38 basis points in about five weeks.
One caution on which number to trust. Freddie’s survey lags the market because it averages the week ending the day before. Mortgage News Daily said as much in its September 10 newsletter, and its daily index that day read 7.07% against Freddie’s 6.76%. The daily index reads higher in a fast move. Always ask which publisher, and which day, a rate comes from.
How Is Demand Holding Up?
Demand is weakening. Buyers are applying less, and nearly everyone who was refinancing has stopped. The Mortgage Bankers Association tracks loan applications every week. Its report for the week ending September 18 gives the clearest read on how buyers are responding.
The MBA’s survey, released September 23, shows the composite index down 1.5% for the week. Refinance applications fell 3% and were 62% lower than a year earlier. Unadjusted purchase applications were 11% lower than a year earlier. The MBA put the 30-year fixed at 7.12%, the highest since May 2024. (The MBA’s figure is its own survey average, which is why it differs from Freddie’s.)
Adjustable-rate mortgages are getting more attention. The MBA’s NewsLink summary shows the ARM share of applications at 9.8%. That is a sign buyers are hunting for a lower starting payment. An adjustable loan can reset, so it carries its own risk, and I’d treat it as a tool for a specific plan, not a way around the math.
For context, the prior-month report looked different. The MBA’s September 2 release showed applications up 0.8% for the week ending August 28. Unadjusted purchase was only 0.2% below a year earlier. So the drop from roughly flat to 11% below is recent. It followed the rate move.
What Happened to Buying Power?
Rising rates shrink the loan a given income supports. Your income didn’t change, but the payment each borrowed dollar creates did. Lenders judge you partly on debt-to-income, or DTI. DTI is your monthly debt payments, including the new mortgage, divided by your gross monthly income. The mortgage payment is the biggest part of that.
Here is the plain version. If your DTI limit is fixed and the rate rises, the maximum payment you can carry stays the same. The loan that payment supports gets smaller. That’s the squeeze. A hypothetical makes it concrete: if a rate moves from 6.65% to 7.03%, the same budget supports a smaller loan. You can see it in any online calculator in a few minutes.
I’m not going to print a payment table. A payment depends on your price, your down payment, taxes, insurance, any HOA dues and the rate on the day you lock. National averages hide all of it. What I can tell you is the order of operations:
1. Start with the payment you’re comfortable carrying, not the price you’d like. 2. Add taxes, insurance and any HOA dues to the principal-and-interest payment. Those costs don’t fall when rates rise. 3. Check the total against your income and your other monthly debts. 4. Work backward to the loan size and price that fit.
If you ran this in July or August, the answer has moved. Run it again at today’s rates.
Do Buyers Have the Upper Hand?
Buyers have more leverage than they’ve had in a decade, but the leverage is uneven and rates limit how much of it you can use. The supply data support the first half. The rate data support the second.
NAR’s August existing-home sales report, released September 10, shows sales down 2.0% from July and 1.2% from a year earlier, at a 3.98 million annual rate. Inventory was 1.62 million homes, up 5.9% from August 2025. That’s 4.9 months of supply, the highest in more than ten years. The median price was $429,100, up 1.6% from a year earlier. NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, said ample supply gives buyers better opportunities to negotiate.
Pending sales point the same way. NAR’s pending home sales report of September 17 showed a 0.3% gain for the month but a 4.7% decline from a year earlier.
New homes tell a similar story. The Census Bureau’s new residential sales report, released September 24, shows August sales 6.4% above July and 2.0% below a year earlier. The Census detail table shows 483,000 new homes for sale, an 8.5-month supply. The median new-home price was $393,700, down 5.8% from a year earlier. The average was $478,700, down 8.8%.
Two caveats before you take that as a victory lap. First, Inman noted that Census flagged the monthly sales gain as not statistically significant. Those price swings can be noise. Second, Reuters, via a market source, reported that an NAHB survey showed builder expectations getting worse in September. Many builders were cutting prices and offering incentives.
Incentives are worth a closer look. A builder who pays toward your financing costs, or who offers a purchase-related concession, is cutting your cost of buying without cutting the sticker price. Ask what’s on the table and get it in writing. Whether any particular incentive fits your loan depends on the program and lender guidelines.
Don’t confuse falling new-home prices with falling prices everywhere. NAR’s median is still up from a year ago. The weakness shows up in new construction and in what sellers are asking. It doesn’t show up in closed sales nationally. For context, NAR’s July report put the median at $434,100, so the August figure is lower. That’s a seasonal move, not a trend.
My Take
My read: the rate move matters more than the price move, and I’d not bank on a price drop to rescue your budget.
Here’s why. Sellers are cutting asking prices at the margin, and builders are discounting. That helps. But a few percent off a price won’t offset a rate that moved this far in five weeks, because the rate applies to every borrowed dollar for decades. Negotiating power is real. It just isn’t a substitute for the payment math.
I also think too many buyers are waiting for a Fed cut. The Fed just hiked. The median projection leaves a further hike on the table. And mortgage rates follow the bond market, which is currently driven by things the Fed doesn’t control, like deficits and oil. Anyone telling you rates are about to fall is guessing.
The forecasts disagree, too. 24/7 Wall St. reported that ING sees the 10-year yield climbing noticeably higher from here, while J.P. Morgan’s Karen Ward sees it rising only modestly. That’s a wide range of outcomes, and I’d plan for it instead of for a single forecast. Plan for rates staying here. If they fall, that’s a bonus, and you can look at refinancing then.
On the other side, I’d also not panic-buy. A rushed purchase at the top of your budget, at a rate this high, leaves no cushion if your costs or income change. The honest answer is to buy what the math supports and stop there. Not ideal for anyone with a dream house out of range. Still true.
Common Misreadings
Most of the confusion this month comes from five wrong assumptions. Here they are, with the facts.
“The Fed hike raised my mortgage rate.” Not directly. Mortgage rates follow long-term yields, which were already surging before the September 16 meeting. A Fed hike can push on those yields, but it isn’t the same thing.
“Freddie’s number is the rate I’ll get.” No. Freddie’s survey covers a conforming purchase loan for a borrower with a large down payment and excellent credit, and it excludes points. Your own quote depends on your file, the program and the day.
“Buyers have the upper hand everywhere.” Not everywhere. NAR said pending sales fell from a year earlier in all four regions. Leverage depends on your local market.
“Prices are falling nationally.” Closed-sale prices aren’t. NAR’s median is still rising year over year. The declines are in list prices and new-home prices.
“The Fed is cutting, so rates will fall.” The cuts of 2025 are history. The Fed hiked this month.
What I’d Do Now
Re-run the math, check your options, and decide on a lock before you fall in love with a house. None of this is advice to buy or sell. It’s a checklist.
Re-run your DTI at today’s rates. Use a current quote, not one from the spring. If you were pre-approved weeks ago, that letter may rest on a rate that no longer exists. Ask for it to be refreshed.
Compare quotes taken on the same day. Rates move daily right now. Two quotes pulled a week apart are not comparable. One of them is simply stale. Gather them together or the comparison means nothing.
Understand the lock. A rate lock holds a quoted rate for a set period while your purchase moves forward. If you like the number and the payment fits, lock it. Floating means leaving the rate unlocked and betting it falls. In a market where yields have been making new highs, floating is a bet, not a plan. Talk to your loan officer about what a lock does and doesn’t cover.
Use the leverage you have. Ask for seller credits, price reductions and builder incentives. Supply is at a ten-year high, so you’re negotiating from a better position than last year.
Look at your program options, not just the rate. Different programs qualify borrowers in different ways. A salaried buyer, a self-employed buyer and an investor may be looking at different products. Our loan options page describes what each program reviews the file on, and carries the current guidelines, which are subject to lender guidelines and change. HousingWire reports that non-QM growth is led by DSCR and bank-statement programs for self-employed borrowers, not weaker credit profiles. That’s useful context if your income doesn’t fit a W-2 box.
If you own a home, think about equity before you borrow against it. Higher rates change the calculus for cash-out and equity borrowing. I covered how record home equity is meeting rising rates in an earlier piece.
Watch two things. One is the weekly Freddie Mac survey. The other is the 10-year yield. If you see the yield fall for several days, rate quotes tend to follow. If it keeps climbing, they tend to as well. It’s not a precise science.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file. Call 828-256-2183 or request a quote.
For the end-to-end picture of how these loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much did mortgage rates actually rise after the Fed hike?
Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 6.76% for the week of September 10, 6.95% for September 17 and 7.03% for September 24. That’s 27 basis points in two weeks. The Fed hike came on September 16, but yields were already rising before it, so the hike alone didn’t cause the move.
Does the Fed’s rate hike change my fixed-rate mortgage?
No. A fixed-rate mortgage you already have keeps its rate. The hike affects new loans and variable-rate products. Home equity lines of credit and adjustable-rate mortgages tend to adjust. Check your loan documents or call your servicer to see when yours resets.
Should I wait for rates to come down before buying?
I wouldn’t base a purchase on that bet. The Fed’s median projection leaves room for another hike, and forecasts for the 10-year yield range widely. If the payment fits your budget today with some cushion, buying is a reasonable choice. If it only fits on a good day, waiting is reasonable too. You can look at refinancing later if rates fall.
Why do the rate numbers I see online differ so much?
Different publishers measure different things on different days. Freddie Mac averages a week of loan applications from before the date of release. The MBA runs its own weekly survey, and Mortgage News Daily publishes a daily index. In a fast-moving market, the daily index reads higher than the weekly average. Your own quote will differ again, because it depends on your file.
Are home prices actually falling?
Not in closed sales nationally. NAR’s median price in August was $429,100, up 1.6% from a year earlier. What’s falling is list prices and new-home prices. Census reported the new-home median down 5.8% from a year earlier, though it cautioned that some of those changes aren’t statistically significant.
About Lendmire
Lendmire — NMLS# 2371349 — is a mortgage brokerage whose founder writes this column. DSCR investor programs reach 41 markets, including Washington, D.C.; consumer programs such as bank statement, HELOC and down payment assistance loans are arranged in 16 states; every loan is placed with, and underwritten by, a wholesale lender under that lender’s guidelines. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
1. Federal Reserve FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
2. Atlanta Fed, FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
3. TD Economics, FOMC statement note
5. CNN reported
7. Semafor
9. MBA Weekly Applications Survey, September 23, 2026
10. NewsLink summary
12. Census Bureau new residential sales, September 24, 2026
13. Inman noted
15. 24/7 Wall St. — The 10 Year Yield Is 2 Basis Points
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: Why A Local Real Estate Broker Matters As Buyers Gain Leverage, September 2026? · September 2026: Buyers Need A Real Estate Agent As Supply Grows, Rates Climb · Listing Your Home For Sale This Fall As Inventory Climbs And Rates Rise
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
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Disclosure information. Lendmire is a state-licensed mortgage brokerage under NMLS# 2371349. Lendmire is not a depository institution, direct lender, or financial advisor — all loans referenced are placed through wholesale lender partners and are subject to each lender's underwriting standards. This article is provided for general informational purposes and is not a commitment to lend, nor does it constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. Loan programs, terms, rates, and qualification standards change without notice and depend on borrower profile, property type, and the state in which the subject property is located. Equal Housing Opportunity provider. NMLS Consumer Access: nmlsconsumeraccess.org.