The Quick Read: As of September 28, 2026, you have more room to negotiate than the summer crowd did, and less room in your qualifying math. Freddie Mac’s 30-year average has risen four straight weekly releases. Supply is at a ten-year high by one measure, and builders are cutting prices. Leverage is real. So is the rate climb.
The school bell rang, the moving vans went quiet, and a lot of families who missed the summer window assumed they’d missed the market. They didn’t. But the market they’re walking into is different from the one they’d have faced in June, and the two forces pulling on them point in opposite directions.
Key Takeaways
- Freddie Mac’s 30-year average rose in each of the four weekly releases from September 3 through September 24, 2026, for a total move of 37 basis points.
- NAR reported August months’ supply at 4.9, which its chief economist called the highest in over ten years.
- Builders are the most motivated sellers right now: 38% cut prices in September and 66% used incentives, per figures Inman reported on September 25.
- More negotiating room does not mean falling prices. National median prices are still up from a year ago.
- Rates are the part you can’t negotiate. Plan your qualifying math around where they are today, not where they were in June.
What Changed: Four Weeks, One Direction
The rate story is the cleaner one, so start there. Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week ending September 24, up from 6.95% the week before. A year earlier it was 6.30%.
That was the fourth straight increase. The releases ran 6.71% on September 3, 6.76% on September 10, 6.95% on September 17 and 7.03% on September 24. The September 3 figure was itself up from 6.66% the week before. From that 6.66% starting point, the total move is 37 basis points. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point.
The biggest single jump came in the September 17 release: 19 basis points in one week. That is the week the Federal Reserve raised its target range by a quarter point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent on September 16. The range had been held at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent at the June and July meetings. Hold, hold, hike. That is a change in direction, and mortgage rates noticed.
One caution on what Freddie’s number means. Its survey covers conventional, conforming, fully amortizing purchase loans. That is one narrow slice of the market. It is a benchmark, not a quote. Your own numbers depend on your file, your property and the product.
Another caution on timing. Freddie’s figure is a weekly average. Mortgage News Daily’s index, a daily measure, closed at 7.45% on September 24 after 7.26% the day before, a move of 19 basis points in one day. MND also says 7% was first broken on a daily basis on September 10, and that Freddie’s weekly number lags daily conditions. Two different measures. Don’t compare them as if they were the same thing.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey tells the same story from the application side. For the week ending September 18, its 30-year contract rate for conforming balances rose to 7.12% from 6.97%. Total applications fell 1.5%. The refinance index was 62% below a year earlier. The seasonally adjusted purchase index fell 1%, and the unadjusted purchase index was 11% below a year ago.
Buyers are pulling back. That pullback is where your leverage comes from.
What Changed: The Supply Side
Now the other half. NAR’s August existing-home sales report, released September 10, showed sales at a 3.98 million annual pace. That was down 2.0% from July and 1.2% from a year earlier.
Inventory stood at 1.62 million homes, up 3.2% from July and 5.9% from a year ago. It was the first time since November 2019 that inventory topped 1.6 million. Months’ supply, the time it would take to sell every listed home at the current pace, hit 4.9. It was 4.6 in July and 4.6 a year earlier. NAR’s chief economist called it the highest in over ten years and said it gives buyers better chances to negotiate.
Say that carefully. Highest in over ten years. Not a glut. Not a crash. A 4.9-month supply is still a market that many economists would call fairly balanced. But the direction matters, and it matches what Redfin saw. In its report for the four weeks ending September 13, Redfin said pending sales fell 3.5% from the prior week to the lowest level in almost three years, while new listings ran 1.5% above a year earlier. Redfin said the softer demand gives buyers more room to negotiate.
Where Are the Price Cuts Coming From?
Builders. If you want the most motivated sellers in the country right now, look at new construction.
The Census Bureau’s new residential sales report, released September 24, showed August sales at 684,000 annualized, up 6.4% from July but 2.0% below a year earlier. Census flags both changes as within the margin of error. Read that as flat, not as a rebound. Months’ supply of new homes was 8.5, versus 9.0 in July.
The price data needs care. The median new-home price fell 5.8% from a year earlier, but Census says that change is not statistically significant. The average new-home price fell 8.8%, and that one is. Reuters noted that part of the drop may reflect the mix of homes sold, since most August sales were at lower price points. A cheaper mix of homes can pull an average down without any single home getting cheaper.
The builder behavior is clearer. Inman reported on September 25 that 38% of builders cut prices in September, up from 35% in August, and that 66% used incentives, up from 63% and the highest since December. Incentives include things like paying closing costs or buying down a mortgage rate. HousingWire has said that builders spent 2026 cutting prices and buying down rates without producing a broad demand recovery.
Put those together. Builders want to move inventory. Rates make buyers hesitate. That gap is your opening.
What It Means for Home Buyers
Leverage and affordability are two different things. Rising rates squeeze affordability. Rising supply expands leverage. Both are true this month.
Here is a plain hypothetical to show the tension. If a rate moves from 6.5% to 7.0%, that half-point change lifts the cost of borrowing by an amount a seller’s price cut may or may not offset. I’m not giving you a payment number. I’m telling you to run both sides before you decide a concession is a win. A price cut lowers the balance. A rate buydown lowers the cost of carrying it. They are not interchangeable, and a smart negotiation weighs which one your budget needs.
Second point: more leverage does not mean falling prices. NAR reports the national median price up 1.6% from a year earlier. Redfin reports a 2% rise. Negotiating room and falling prices are different things. You may get a better deal on a specific house without the market itself getting cheaper.
Third point, for the payment-sensitive family. HousingWire says the pressure is most acute for first-time and payment-sensitive buyers, and that builders are aiming their price cuts and buydowns at exactly that group. If that is you, the new-construction aisle deserves a look. Read the incentive terms as carefully as you read the price.
My Take
I think the “wait for rates to fall” crowd is playing the wrong game this fall.
Nobody knows how long this climb lasts. The Fed hiked on September 16, CNBC reported the vote was 12-0, and the projections point to possible further tightening this year. Advisor Perspectives said markets were pricing one more quarter-point hike in December. That is market pricing, not Fed policy. It could be wrong in either direction.
So here is my read. Sellers cannot control rates, and neither can you. What you can control is the price, the concessions and the terms. A buyer who waits for rates to fall is betting against a Fed that just moved the other way, in a market where the leverage may fade once spring buyers return. A buyer who negotiates hard now, and locks when the numbers work, is using the one advantage the calendar actually gave them.
Is that the right call for every family? No. If the qualifying math doesn’t hold at today’s rates, no amount of negotiating fixes it. That is a real answer too, and better learned in September than in the middle of a contract.
What I’d Do Now
Start with the math, not the house. Get a clear read on what you qualify for at today’s market conditions before you tour anything. Rates moved 37 basis points in four weeks. Numbers from June are stale.
Then compare products, not just prices. The right loan depends on how you earn and document income. Salaried buyers, self-employed buyers and investors all have different paths, and our loan options page carries the current guidelines for each, subject to lender guidelines and your full file. I don’t state program figures in a column because they change.
Next, negotiate the whole package. On existing homes, ask for the price cut, the seller-paid closing costs and the repair credits, and know which one you’re trading for which. On new construction, ask what the incentive is worth and whether it comes with strings, such as using a specific lender.
Finally, understand your lock. A rate lock is an agreement that holds your quoted rate for a set period while your loan is processed. Quotes gathered on different days are not comparable, because the market moved in between. Compare quotes from the same day, and if the numbers work for your budget, lock. In a market that has risen four weeks running, floating is a bet, not a strategy.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file.
Is the Non-QM Side Moving Too?
It is, and it’s a useful signal even if you’re a conventional buyer. Optimal Blue’s August data, summarized by Stacker, showed conforming loans at 47% of rate-lock volume, no longer a majority. Non-QM was above 11%, versus 8.34% in August 2025. Investor and DSCR loans were above 35% of non-QM production, and bank-statement loans were nearly 30%.
Non-QM means a loan that doesn’t fit the standard agency box, often because of how income is documented. A DSCR loan is reviewed mainly on a rental property’s income. A bank-statement loan uses deposits instead of traditional personal-income documentation. I’d read those numbers as a sign that more borrowers don’t fit the standard template. Self-employed buyers especially should know the option exists. If you own rentals or want to buy one, our piece on “Does Rising Rent Unlock More Leverage On A DSCR Portfolio Refinance?” walks through the logic. One caution from the same reporting: Cotality says fraud-risk indicators on investor loans are rising, though it notes its data doesn’t measure confirmed fraud. Expect more verification.
For the end-to-end picture of how these loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did mortgage rates really rise four weeks in a row?
Yes. Freddie Mac’s 30-year average rose in each weekly release from September 3 through September 24, 2026. It went from 6.71% to 6.76% to 6.95% to 7.03%. The starting point was 6.66% the week before, so the total climb is 37 basis points.
Is 7.03% the rate I’ll get?
No. Freddie’s figure is a weekly average for conventional, conforming, fully amortizing purchase loans. Your quote depends on your credit profile, property, loan type and the day you lock. Daily indexes such as Mortgage News Daily’s ran higher than the weekly figure during the same stretch.
Are home prices falling, so I should wait?
Not nationally. NAR reported the median existing-home price up 1.6% from a year earlier, and Redfin reported a 2% rise. What has changed is negotiating room, driven by higher supply and builder incentives. Waiting adds rate risk, and rates just moved the other way.
Is a fall purchase better than a summer one?
For leverage, this year, it looks that way. NAR put months’ supply at 4.9, its highest in over ten years, and Redfin said softer demand gives buyers more room to negotiate. For affordability, it’s harder, since rates rose. Only your own numbers decide which effect wins.
Should I lock my rate or float?
If the numbers work for your budget, lock. A lock holds your quoted rate while the loan is processed. After four straight weekly increases and a Fed hike on September 16, floating is a bet on direction. Nobody, including me, can call it.
About Lendmire
As a mortgage broker (NMLS# 2371349), Lendmire arranges DSCR investor loans in 40 states plus Washington, D.C. — 41 markets — and, on its consumer platform, bank statement, home equity and down payment assistance financing in 16 states, through wholesale lenders. Lendmire never underwrites or funds a loan itself. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
Get Started
Ready to find the right loan for you?
In about 30 seconds you can review financing options available for your home or investment property. No commitment required.
Informational only. Not a Loan Estimate, approval, or commitment to lend. Program availability and eligibility are subject to lender guidelines, credit approval, property review, and underwriting.
References
1. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
2. Federal Reserve implementation note, September 16, 2026
3. MBA Weekly Applications Survey, September 23, 2026
4. NAR August existing-home sales report
5. Inman, new-home sales, September 25, 2026
6. CNBC, Fed rate decision, September 16, 2026
7. krdo.com — Conforming Mortgages Just Lost Their Majority Non QM Is Helping Drive the Shift
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: Why A Local Real Estate Broker Matters As Buyers Gain Leverage, September 2026? · September 2026: Buyers Need A Real Estate Agent As Supply Grows, Rates Climb · Listing Your Home For Sale This Fall As Inventory Climbs And Rates Rise
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
- Mortgage Loan Originator · NMLS# 1129696 · Verify on NMLS Consumer Access
- North Carolina Real Estate Broker · License# 343312 · Verify on NCREC
- North Carolina Insurance Producer · License# 19053198 · Property, Casualty, Life, Health · Verify on NAIC SBS
- Lendmire LLC · Firm NMLS# 2371349 · Verify firm licensure
Compliance and disclosures. Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) is a licensed mortgage broker and is not a direct lender, depository institution, financial advisor, or tax professional. Content in this article is general market analysis and educational information — not financial, legal, or tax advice for any specific situation. Lendmire does not guarantee loan approval; every transaction is subject to underwriting by the funding lender. Mortgage pricing and loan program guidelines are subject to change at any time without notice and vary by borrower characteristics, property type, and state regulations. Lendmire complies with Equal Housing Opportunity. Licensure verification: NMLS Consumer Access.