The Quick Read: the cost of money moved up again this month, and the people who pay for that are the buyers still comparing offers. As of September 26, 2026, Freddie Mac’s survey for the week of September 24 put the 30-year fixed at 7.03%, its fourth straight weekly increase. The Fed raised its target range on September 16. Waiting is a bet that rates fall, and this month the evidence has gone the other way. My advice is to pick one broker who knows your market, get your file in order, and stop re-shopping a moving target.
Key Takeaways
- Freddie Mac’s survey has risen four weeks in a row, and the 30-year fixed crossed 7% on September 24.
- The Fed raised rates on September 16, its first hike since 2023, and markets are pricing more.
- Buyer demand is softening, and inventory is the highest in over a decade, so buyers have leverage on price even as money gets dearer.
- Quotes gathered on different days are not comparable. Endless shopping can cost you more than it saves.
- Waiting can work if rates fall. Plan as though they might not.
What Changed This Month
Rates rose every week in September, and the Fed added its own push. Freddie Mac’s survey shows a steady climb from 6.71% on September 3 to 7.03% on September 24, per Freddie Mac’s September 24 release. A year earlier the same survey read 6.30%.
Here is the run of the 30-year fixed in Freddie Mac’s weekly survey.
| Survey week | 30-year fixed | Move from prior week |
|---|---|---|
| September 3 | 6.71% | Up from 6.66% |
| September 10 | 6.76% | Up |
| September 17 | 6.95% | Up |
| September 24 | 7.03% | Up |
That is 32 basis points in three weeks, and 73 basis points above a year ago. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point. Freddie Mac’s 15-year fixed also climbed, to 6.42% from 6.26%.
The August average shows the trend too. Per NAR’s September 10 report, Freddie Mac’s August average was 6.67%, against 6.54% in July. By the September 24 reading, rates had climbed about 36 basis points from that August average.
The Fed moved, and the bond market moved first
On September 16, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 12–0 to raise the federal funds target range by a quarter point. A large national bank’s reporting called it the first increase since 2023. The Fed’s statement described economic activity as expanding at a solid pace.
Here is the part people miss. Mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield and inflation expectations, not the Fed’s target directly. The 10-year is the bond the U.S. government sells to borrow for a decade. TradingEconomics reported it at 5.17% on September 25, after a sell-off pushed it toward 5.20%. Borrowing costs there sit at 2007 highs.
The MBA’s weekly survey tells the same story. For the week ending September 11, the MBA reported its 30-year contract rate at 6.97%, the highest since May 2025. Its deputy chief economist tied that to the 10-year inching toward 5 percent.
What Does This Mean for Home Buyers?
It means the cost of waiting is now visible week to week. Demand is already cooling, so buyers have some leverage on price, but the financing side keeps moving against anyone who stalls. Both things are true at once.
Start with demand. Per the MBA’s report for the week ending September 11, the application index fell 4.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis. Refinance applications dropped 9 percent in a week and ran 65 percent below the same week a year earlier. The seasonally adjusted purchase index slipped 1 percent. Unadjusted, it ran 19 percent below a year ago.
Sales tell a similar tale. NAR’s August report, released September 10, showed existing-home sales down 2.0% from July and 1.2% from a year earlier. Inventory reached 1.62 million units, a 4.9-month supply and the highest in over a decade. NAR’s pending-home-sales report on September 17 showed contract signings up 0.3% on the month but down 4.7% from a year ago.
Prices have not cracked. TradingEconomics, citing NAR data, put the median existing-home price at $429,100, up 1.6% from last year.
So the picture is mixed. Sellers have more competition, which helps you negotiate. But the money costs more, and the market is not yet pricing relief. That is why hesitation has a cost that has nothing to do with the sticker price.
The buy-local argument, with a financial edge
The old case for buying local is about where money goes. A neighbor who earns a fee or a margin spends it nearby. Community wealth circulates closer to home. That argument has always been about values.
This fall it has a hard financial edge. A buyer who spends a month running the same file past a dozen national online lenders is not standing still. The market is moving under that file. Each new quote is stamped with a different day’s market. By the time you finish comparing, the first quote is stale.
I’m not saying online lenders are bad, and I’m not saying any single broker is right for you. My point is narrower. Comparison shopping only works if you compare like with like, on the same day. After that, someone has to own the file, and that person is easier to reach when they work near you.
Why Quotes From Different Days Don’t Compare
A quote is a snapshot. It reflects one day’s market and one set of facts about you and the property. A quote from September 3 and a quote from September 24 are not two prices for the same loan. They are prices for different markets.
Suppose a borrower got one number at the start of this month and another at the end. If the rate moved from 6.71% to 7.03%, that is a third of a point. That is the market moving, not one lender being cheaper. This is a plain hypothetical built from the survey dates above, not a quote from anyone.
Here is how I’d handle shopping in a rising market:
1. Gather quotes within a narrow window. Same day if you can.
2. Compare the same loan type and the same facts. Different assumptions make a number meaningless.
3. Ask how and when the rate gets locked. A lock is an agreement that holds a rate for a set period, subject to its terms.
4. Decide before the next Fed meeting, not after. Float only if you can absorb a move against you.
If you like a number, lock it. Floating is a bet that the market improves before you finish. This month, that bet lost.
My Take
I think the “rates will fall, so I’ll wait” story is weaker than it was in August. Two things drive that view, and both come from the record.
First, the Fed moved the wrong way for waiting buyers. TD Economics noted that the median projection for the 2026 federal funds rate rose to 4.1% from 3.8%, which leaves room for another hike by year-end. TradingEconomics cited roughly a 67% probability of an October hike as of September 25. Other reporting points to December. Sources disagree on timing. They agree on direction.
Second, the relief story is fragile. Bond yields eased on September 25 after signs that U.S. and Iranian negotiators may be exploring a phased agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and oil fell. That is a real possibility. It is also one headline. I would not plan a purchase around it.
The honest toss-up is this. Inventory is high and sales are soft, so a buyer who waits may find a seller more willing to deal. The other side is that financing costs have moved more than prices have this month. I lean toward acting on a home you can afford at today’s cost of money, and negotiating hard on price, since the price is the part you control. A buyer who needs next spring’s rates to make the math work is buying a forecast, not a house.
And no, the Fed’s hike is not the only reason rates rose. Mortgage rates started climbing before the September 16 meeting, because the 10-year was already moving. The Fed made it official.
Equity, Investors, and Who Else Feels This
Current owners are in a different spot. ICE Mortgage Technology’s August Mortgage Monitor put U.S. home equity at a record $18 trillion in the second quarter of 2026. About $11.7 trillion of that is tappable, spread across 47.5 million mortgage holders. But the same report counted roughly 813,000 borrowers who owe more than their homes are worth, up 44% from a year earlier. Equity is not evenly spread. Don’t assume yours is large.
Owners who locked a lower rate years ago have little reason to refinance. The MBA’s refinance numbers show that. That keeps inventory tight at the bottom and supports prices.
Investors and self-employed borrowers are a growing share of the market. Optimal Blue estimates put DSCR and investor loans at 35% of non-QM production in August 2026, up from 28% a year earlier. A DSCR loan is reviewed mainly on the rent a property produces rather than the borrower’s paycheck. Non-QM means the loan sits outside standard agency rules. For a plain-English walkthrough, see our complete DSCR loans guide. A major bank’s analysts expect non-QM originations of $175 billion in 2026. Delinquencies on 2022–2024 loans have crept up, so lenders are watching credit closely.
What I’d Do Now
This is practical, not advice to buy or sell any specific asset.
If you’re buying soon: Get your documents in order first. Pay stubs, traditional personal-income documentation, bank statements, and for self-employed borrowers, whatever your program uses to show income. Then compare your loan options in one sitting, not across a month. Program details change, and eligibility is subject to lender guidelines, so confirm what currently applies.
If you’re self-employed or an investor: Ask what income the program reviews the file on. Some non-QM programs use bank deposits or rental income instead of traditional personal-income documentation. They fit some files and not others, and pricing and terms differ from agency loans.
If you’re refinancing: The MBA data shows most owners are sitting still. If you need cash, look at whether a second lien or home equity line preserves a first mortgage you already like. Compare it against your actual goal.
If you’re undecided: Pick a date. Write down what rate and price you’d need to buy. Check them against the survey each Thursday. If the market won’t deliver that, change the plan, not the calendar.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will mortgage rates keep rising after September 2026?
Nobody knows, and the sources disagree on timing. As of September 25, TradingEconomics cited roughly a 67% chance of another Fed hike in October. The Fed’s own median projection for 2026 moved up to 4.1%. Oil and bond-market headlines could ease pressure, though. Plan for a range, not a point.
Is 7% a record high for mortgage rates?
No. Freddie Mac’s survey read 7.03% for the week of September 24, but that is a one-year high for this run, not a record. The MBA said its 30-year contract rate for the week ending September 11 was the highest since May 2025. Rates sat far higher in earlier decades.
Does the Fed set my mortgage rate?
No. The Fed sets a short-term target. Mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield and inflation expectations. They often move together with the Fed, but not always. This month the 10-year climbed toward 5.20%, and mortgage rates rose with it.
Should I wait for prices to fall instead?
Maybe, but the data is mixed. NAR reported inventory at its highest in over a decade, yet the median price still rose 1.6% from a year earlier. Sales are also up 1.6% year to date. Waiting for a price drop is a bet on your local market, and a national average can’t tell you how yours will behave.
How many lenders should I compare?
Enough to see the range, not so many that your quotes go stale. Gather them in one window, on the same loan type, with the same facts about you and the property. A broker can compare options on your behalf, but the comparison only helps if the numbers are from the same day.
About Lendmire
Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) is a non-QM mortgage brokerage arranging DSCR investor loans in 41 markets — 40 states plus Washington, D.C. — and consumer mortgage programs, including bank statement, HELOC and down payment assistance options, in 16 states through wholesale lenders. Lendmire is the broker, never the lender; every file is underwritten by the lender under its own guidelines. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
1. Freddie Mac — Primary Mortgage Market Survey
2. Freddie Mac — mortgage rates news release, September 24, 2026
3. Federal Reserve — FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
4. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey, week ending September 11, 2026
5. NAR — Existing-Home Sales report for August
6. TD Economics
7. 2025
8. 2026
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: Why A Local Real Estate Broker Matters As Buyers Gain Leverage, September 2026? · September 2026: Buyers Need A Real Estate Agent As Supply Grows, Rates Climb · Listing Your Home For Sale This Fall As Inventory Climbs And Rates Rise
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
- Mortgage Loan Originator · NMLS# 1129696 · Verify on NMLS Consumer Access
- North Carolina Real Estate Broker · License# 343312 · Verify on NCREC
- North Carolina Insurance Producer · License# 19053198 · Property, Casualty, Life, Health · Verify on NAIC SBS
- Lendmire LLC · Firm NMLS# 2371349 · Verify firm licensure
Disclosures. The information presented in this article is general market commentary, not financial, legal, or tax advice. Lendmire is a mortgage brokerage (NMLS# 2371349) — not a direct lender or depository institution — and loan placement is subject to lender underwriting. Nothing in this content represents a commitment to lend. Loan terms, pricing, and program availability vary based on borrower qualifications, property characteristics, and state of subject property, and are subject to change at any time. Lendmire complies with Equal Housing Opportunity requirements. Consumer access: nmlsconsumeraccess.org.