Buyers Gain Negotiating Room — The Quick Read: Yes, but only the kind you can afford to use. As of October 2, 2026, more homes sit unsold, more sellers are cutting prices, and supply is the heaviest in years. Mortgage rates rose for six straight weeks at the same time. Leverage on price and terms is real. Higher rates limit how much of it a buyer can spend.
Key Takeaways
- Supply is up. NAR counted 1.62 million homes for sale in August, the first time above 1.6 million since November 2019.
- Sellers are blinking. Realtor.com says price cuts hit 20.8% of listings in September, the highest for that month since 2018.
- Rates cut the other way. Freddie Mac’s survey for the week of October 1 put the 30-year fixed at 7.28%.
- Negotiate the whole deal, not just the price: credits, repairs, and timing all count.
- Two claims in the usual story don’t hold up. I’ll flag them below.
What changed this fall
Start with supply. NAR’s August existing-home sales report, released September 10, showed sales at a 3.98 million annual pace. That is down 2.0% on the month and the first reading under 4.0 million since June 2025. Supply stood at 4.9 months. NAR’s chief economist called that the highest in over ten years and said it gives buyers better chances to negotiate.
Months of supply is simple. It is how long today’s inventory would last at the current sales pace. More months means more choice and less urgency.
Now the listings side. Realtor.com’s September report, published September 30, counted 1,161,615 active listings, up 5.4% from a year earlier. Homes under contract fell 4.1%. Median days on market was 61. The median listing price was $419,250, down 1.4% on the year.
Sellers are responding. In the same report, price cuts reached 20.8% of listings. Redfin’s price-drop report from September 30 found 21.1% of sellers with active listings cut their price in the four weeks ending September 20. A year earlier that figure was 19.8%. Redfin is brokerage-affiliated, so read it as one view. Redfin’s release also says nearly half of buyers are getting seller concessions. That figure covers all buyers, not first-timers.
Two claims I won’t repeat
Two lines in the popular story don’t survive the data.
First, “new listings are at a post-2022 high.” Realtor.com’s September count was 394,830 new listings. That is down 0.7% from a year ago and only 0.2% above September 2022. This isn’t a flood of sellers. The supply gain comes mostly from homes that aren’t selling.
Second, “most homes sell below the original ask.” I found no source for it. The nearest figure is Redfin’s average sale-to-list ratio of 98.7% for the four weeks ending September 6. That is measured against the final list price, not the original one. In the same stretch, 25.5% of homes sold above list, per Redfin’s September 10 market update. My read is that many sellers are settling near their cut price. That is my interpretation, not a statistic.
Then there’s the “highest since 2019” line. It’s true on NAR’s count. It isn’t true on Realtor.com’s, where September active listings were still 5.2% below September 2019. Two series, two answers.
Why aren’t buyers rushing in?
Because the cost of money jumped. Freddie Mac’s survey for the week of October 1 put the 30-year fixed at 7.28%, up from 7.03% the week before and against 6.34% a year earlier. That is a 25 basis point weekly jump. Fox Business reports it is the highest since November 2023. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point.
The MBA saw the same thing in its own survey. Its 30-year contract rate rose for a sixth straight week to 7.3% for the week ending September 25. In the MBA’s September 30 release, purchase applications were 14% below a year earlier on an unadjusted basis. Refinance applications were 56% below. Both ran at their slowest weekly pace since 2025.
Don’t mix these numbers up. Freddie Mac, the MBA and Mortgage News Daily each measure rates differently. They will not match, and none of them is a quote for any borrower.
One more myth. People blame the Fed for the jump. The Federal Reserve’s September 16 statement did raise the target range a quarter point, to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, on a 12–0 vote. But Fox Business notes mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury, not the Fed’s decisions directly. The 10-year had its largest quarterly surge since 1994, per NBC on October 1. I could not pull an official Treasury print, so I won’t quote a yield.
What it means for home buyers
The leverage is real, and it is uneven. Realtor.com’s chief economist said buyers are gaining leverage, but higher rates limit how much of it they can use. I agree.
Think of it as two dials. The seller’s dial moved your way: more choice, more cuts, more concessions. The financing dial moved against you. A price cut of a few thousand dollars can be swamped by a move of a quarter point in the rate. Run both before you celebrate. Here’s a plain hypothetical: if a rate moves from 7% to 7.25%, the cost of the loan shifts every month for years. A seller credit is a one-time offset.
The sales data adds a caution. Pending sales rose 0.3% in August but fell 4.7% from a year earlier, per NAR’s September 17 report. Realtor.com’s under-contract count fell 4.1% on the year. These measure different things, but they point the same way. Demand is soft.
Investors aren’t crowding you out either. NAR put investor and second-home buyers at 15% of August transactions, down from 21% a year earlier, per its September 10 release.
New construction tells a similar story with a warning label. Census and HUD reported August new-home sales at 684,000 on September 24, with 8.5 months of supply and a median price of $393,700. The agencies say the monthly gain and the year-over-year price drop are within the margin of error. I’d treat both as noise.
My take
This is a buyer’s opening, not a buyer’s market everywhere. I’d say that plainly. National figures blend places that feel nothing like each other. Your local months of supply and your local price cuts matter more than any headline in this column.
Prices aren’t “falling” either. NAR’s median sale price was up 1.6% on the year, while Realtor.com’s median listing price was down 1.4%. Asking prices and sold prices are different series. Sellers are trimming asks. They aren’t yet dumping homes.
And I’m wary of the price-cut story. Redfin’s cut share is only 1.3 points above last year. That is a modest change. Sellers who don’t want to cut may simply pull the listing. Realtor.com says it is watching for exactly that. If delistings climb, today’s leverage thins out.
My bottom line: the best deal this fall goes to the buyer who is financed, patient, and specific about what they ask for.
What should you negotiate besides price?
Everything the contract lets you. With homes sitting 61 days at the median, a seller has time to think about what a signed contract is worth.
- Seller credits. A credit toward closing costs can matter more than a small price cut, especially with financing costs high.
- Repairs. Ask for fixes or an allowance after the inspection, not before.
- Timing. A flexible closing date is worth something to a seller who has already bought elsewhere.
- Contingencies. In a softer market, keep your inspection and financing protections. Don’t trade them away to look strong.
Cash to close is often the real barrier, not the price. Down payment assistance programs may help some buyers bridge it, subject to lender guidelines and program eligibility. The down payment assistance programs page carries the current guidelines. I won’t quote figures here because they change.
Existing owners should think before they trade up. If you hold a mortgage you like, read why some homeowners keep the first mortgage before you assume a purchase makes sense.
What I’d do now
None of this is advice to buy or sell a particular home. Here is how I’d work the market.
1. Get your financing in order first. Know what you can carry at today’s market, not last spring’s.
2. Compare quotes from the same day. Rates move week to week. Quotes pulled on different days aren’t comparable.
3. Lock when the numbers work. A lock is a lender’s commitment to hold a rate for a set period. With rates up six straight weeks, I’m wary of floating on a hope. If you like the deal, lock it.
4. Study your own market. Check local days on market, share of listings with cuts, and how far sold prices sit from the last list price.
5. Watch the next data. NAR’s September existing-home sales are due October 13, per its statistics page.
The Fed’s median projection points to one more quarter-point hike by year-end, per Chase’s summary of the dot plot. Markets may disagree with that. Don’t build a plan that needs rates to fall.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file.
For the end-to-end picture of how these loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it a buyer’s market right now?
In many local markets, closer than it has been in years, but not everywhere. NAR’s August supply of 4.9 months is the highest in over ten years. Local conditions still vary a lot, so check your own market’s days on market and price-cut share.
Should I wait for prices to drop further?
Waiting is a bet on two things at once: prices and rates. NAR’s median sale price was still up 1.6% on the year in August. Rates rose for six straight weeks through the Freddie Mac survey on October 1. If you can afford the house on today’s terms and like it, waiting isn’t clearly the safer move.
Are sellers really offering concessions?
Many are. Redfin’s release says nearly half of buyers are getting seller concessions. That covers all buyers and isn’t specific to first-timers, so ask for what you need and see what the seller accepts.
Does the Fed’s rate hike set my mortgage rate?
Not directly. The Fed raised its target range on September 16, but mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury more closely, as Fox Business noted on October 1. The Fed’s move shapes expectations. It doesn’t set the number.
Can down payment assistance help make a purchase work?
It may, depending on the program and the borrower. Down payment assistance programs vary by location and eligibility, subject to lender guidelines. The product page above carries the current details.
About Lendmire
Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) is a non-QM mortgage brokerage arranging DSCR investor loans in 41 markets — 40 states plus Washington, D.C. — and consumer mortgage programs, including bank statement, HELOC and down payment assistance options, in 16 states through wholesale lenders. Lendmire is the broker, never the lender; every file is underwritten by the lender under its own guidelines. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
1. Redfin price-drop report, September 30, 2026
2. Redfin market update, September 10, 2026
3. Fox Business, October 1, 2026
4. MBA weekly applications survey, September 30, 2026
5. Federal Reserve FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
7. Census/HUD new residential sales, September 24, 2026
8. NAR existing-home sales page
9. Chase’s summary of the dot plot
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: Why A Local Real Estate Broker Matters As Buyers Gain Leverage, September 2026? · September 2026: Buyers Need A Real Estate Agent As Supply Grows, Rates Climb · Listing Your Home For Sale This Fall As Inventory Climbs And Rates Rise
Brandon Miller
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Compliance and disclosures. Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) is a licensed mortgage broker and is not a direct lender, depository institution, financial advisor, or tax professional. Content in this article is general market analysis and educational information — not financial, legal, or tax advice for any specific situation. Lendmire does not guarantee loan approval; every transaction is subject to underwriting by the funding lender. Mortgage pricing and loan program guidelines are subject to change at any time without notice and vary by borrower characteristics, property type, and state regulations. Lendmire complies with Equal Housing Opportunity. Licensure verification: NMLS Consumer Access.