The Quick Read: Mortgage rates have risen for four straight weeks. Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed average at 7.03% for the week of September 24, 2026. The belief that more quotes always mean a better deal is the costliest myth right now. Quotes gathered on different days stop being comparable when the market moves this much. Collect a handful from reputable lenders on the same day, then lock.
This column is written as of September 28, 2026. Every market figure below carries its source and date. I have been in lending for eighteen years, and I have rarely seen a month where the old rules of thumb aged this badly.
Key Takeaways
- Freddie Mac’s 30-year average rose for four straight weeks, including a 19-basis-point jump in the week of September 17.
- Mortgage News Daily’s index, a daily series, read 7.50% on September 28, the first time since April 30, 2024.
- The Fed raised its target range on September 16 by a quarter point. Mortgage rates had already crossed 7% on daily measures before that meeting.
- Quotes taken on different days mostly differ because the market moved, not because one lender is sharper.
- Shop a few lenders on one day with one scenario. Then lock if you like the number.
What Changed This Month
Freddie Mac’s weekly average climbed every reading in September. It was 6.71% for the week of September 3, 6.76% on September 10, 6.95% on September 17, and 7.03% on September 24. The September 17 move was 19 basis points. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point, so that is nearly a fifth of a point in a single reading.
That is 37 basis points higher than the late-August reading of 6.66%, per the September 3 Freddie Mac release. A year earlier the average stood at 6.30%, according to the September 24 release. Freddie Mac’s chief economist said in that release that the housing market remains supported by a solid labor market and healthy economic growth.
The daily picture is sharper. Mortgage News Daily’s index, as CNBC reported on September 24, rose 19 basis points that day to 7.45%, from 7.26% a day earlier. The index was re-run because Treasury yields kept climbing in the afternoon. A quote can go stale within hours. By September 28 the index read 7.50%. The same CNBC piece noted the index had sunk as low as 5.99% at the end of February.
The Treasury market is driving this. CNBC reported on September 23 that the 10-year Treasury yield jumped more than 13 basis points to 5.104%, the highest since July 2007. On September 26, CNBC said it reached 5.23% on Friday after trading just below 4.8% earlier in the month. These are press-reported levels, and reports of the exact close differ slightly.
Demand is responding the way you would expect:
- Applications: The Mortgage Bankers Association’s survey for the week ending September 18, released September 23, showed total applications down 1.5%. The Refinance Index fell 3% and sat 62% below a year earlier. The Purchase Index fell 1% seasonally adjusted and was 11% below a year earlier unadjusted. The MBA’s 30-year conforming contract rate rose to 7.12% from 6.97%.
- Existing homes: NAR’s existing-home sales report, dated September 10, showed August sales down 2.0% from July and 1.2% from a year earlier. HousingWire’s summary of the same report put the annual pace at 3.98 million, with inventory at 1.62 million and 4.9 months of supply.
- Pending sales: Redfin’s report for the four weeks ending September 13 showed pending sales down 3.5% week over week to a near three-year low, with new listings up 1.5% from a year earlier.
What the Fed Did (and Didn’t) Do
The Fed raised rates on September 16. The FOMC statement lifted the target range by a quarter point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, on a 12–0 vote, and said inflation remains elevated.
CNBC’s coverage of the decision reported that 16 of 18 policymakers expected another hike this year. A follow-up CNBC piece on September 26 cited futures pricing at 64% for an October hike. Futures pricing moves daily, so treat that number as a snapshot.
Now the misreading. Many people say the Fed hike pushed mortgage rates over 7%. Mortgage News Daily’s chief operating officer told CNBC that 7% was first broken on September 10, after inflation reports raised the risk of a hike. The Fed met six days later. Mortgage rates follow the bond market, and the bond market moved first.
Which Mortgage Myths Are Costing People Money?
Seven myths deserve retirement this month. Each one sounds sensible, and each one can cost a borrower money while rates are climbing.
Myth: “More quotes always means a better deal”
More quotes help only when they describe the same moment. The September 17 jump of 19 basis points shows why. A quote from the Tuesday before that reading and a quote from the Friday after it differ by most of a fifth of a point before any lender does anything different.
Say you collect three quotes over nine days. The first lender looks best. You are really comparing Tuesday’s market with Friday’s market. You would be reading noise as a verdict.
Freddie Mac did say in its September 10 release that buyers should shop around, because multiple quotes can potentially save them thousands. I agree with that. My point is narrower: do your shopping in one sitting.
Here is what I tell people:
- Pick a handful of reputable lenders, not a dozen.
- Give each one the same scenario on the same day.
- Ask whether each quote can be locked, and for how long.
- Decide against the daily market, not last week’s memory.
Myth: “Freddie Mac’s number is what I’ll be quoted”
Freddie Mac’s survey is useful, but it is not a price list. By its own description it averages pricing from the prior Thursday through Wednesday, so it lags the daily market. It covers conventional, conforming, fully amortizing purchase loans for borrowers with 20% down and excellent credit. Any specific terms a borrower is offered remain subject to lender guidelines and a full review of property, leverage, and credit.
That excludes many of the people reading this. Investors, self-employed borrowers and anyone whose file sits outside the standard box are not in that sample. The gap showed up on September 24. Freddie Mac’s survey read 7.03%, while Mortgage News Daily’s index read 7.45% that day. The MBA’s series, at 7.12%, sat between them.
Use the weekly number for direction. Use the daily index to judge whether a quote has gone stale.
Myth: “just arrived”
Headlines treated 7% as a fresh milestone when Freddie Mac’s survey crossed it. On a daily basis the market got there earlier, as noted above. The weekly series reports late. If you read it as live, you will always feel a step behind.
Myth: “The Fed hike made this happen”
The timing does not fit. Mortgage rates had already moved past the 7% mark on daily measures before the meeting, and Mortgage News Daily’s index was the source for that daily reading. Mortgage News Daily’s chief operating officer also said the September 24 afternoon selloff had no obvious catalyst. Oil, inflation data, Fed comments and Treasury auction demand are all cited by different outlets. I do not think anyone can name one cause with confidence. Anyone who does is selling something.
Myth: “A jump in new-home sales means the market is healing”
Census reported that August new-home sales rose from July but remained slightly below the pace of August 2025, per its September 24 release. Inman noted that Census did not consider the monthly change statistically significant. The same piece said a meaningful share of builders offered discounts in September and a majority used incentives. Builders are working hard for each sale. That does not look like a recovery to me.
Myth: “I can refinance my way out of this”
Not at these levels, for most people. The MBA’s Refinance Index was 62% below a year earlier. Owners holding low-rate loans have no reason to move, and the data shows them staying put. That is part of why inventory is thin even as sales slow.
Myth: “Waiting will get me a better number”
Maybe. Nobody knows. It is a bet on the direction of the Treasury market and on inflation data you cannot control. If 16 of 18 policymakers expect another hike, waiting is a wager against the people setting policy. I am not telling you to buy or to refinance. I am telling you to call waiting what it is, a position, not a neutral default.
What It Means for Real Estate Investors
Investor loans price off the same Treasury market, so the direction applies to you. The level does not. The Freddie Mac survey describes a borrower with 20% down and excellent credit on a primary residence. Investor and non-QM pricing is a different animal, and no public survey tracks it the way Freddie Mac tracks conforming loans. No dated public source in my research gave a current DSCR pricing figure, so this column will not offer one. Terms vary by lender guidelines, property type, leverage, credit profile, and full file review.
That raises the stakes on comparing quotes properly. A debt service coverage loan is reviewed for a rental mostly on the property’s own income rather than the borrower’s paycheck. The ratio is monthly rent divided by the monthly payment, which covers principal, interest, taxes, insurance and any HOA dues. When rates rise, the payment rises and coverage shrinks. A rental that cleared comfortably in August can look thin in late September.
Some background from the trade press, dated more than 45 days back. Scotsman Guide reported on July 21 that 83% of surveyed lenders saw non-QM as an opportunity in the second half of 2026. Lender appetite exists. It does not tell you what any single file will be offered. Program terms, eligibility and pricing are subject to lender guidelines and change.
Two practical points for investors:
- Re-run your coverage on today’s market. Do not rely on the numbers you ran when you first made an offer.
- Compare on one day and one scenario. Same property, same credit profile, same structure, same date. If any of those differ, the comparison means nothing.
If you are curious whether using a broker adds cost to the picture, I wrote about that in “Brokers Cost More — And Other Mortgage Myths Worth Killing”. A broker’s practical value in a month like this is comparison discipline. One intake and one scenario can go to several lenders on the same day.
My Take
I think this month punishes two opposite habits. The first is endless shopping. The second is freezing because the headlines feel bad. Both are ways of avoiding a decision, and in a rising market avoidance has a price.
My read is that the rate itself matters less than consistency. A borrower who took four quotes in one afternoon and locked one can defend the choice. A borrower who took six quotes across several days and picked the lowest number has not compared anything.
I also distrust the confident predictions on every side. The sources disagree on demand. NAR’s existing-home report showed sales steady year to date. Redfin showed pending sales at a near three-year low. NAR’s own pending index rose 0.3% in August. Census showed new-home sales up, but not significantly. That is a mixed picture, and anyone who tells you it points one way is selecting.
Here is where I land. I would not try to call the top. The Treasury market could reverse or keep climbing. A lock takes that question off your list.
What I’d Do Now
Treat this as a process problem, not a prediction problem. These steps work whatever rates do next.
1. Decide whether you are a buyer, a refinancer or an investor with an existing contract. The moves differ. Refinancers should check whether the math still works at all given the index readings above.
2. Choose your lenders once. A handful of reputable ones is enough. Ask each for the same scenario on the same day.
3. Check each quote against the daily index. Mortgage News Daily’s series reflects real-time lender rate sheets. If a quote is far from the day’s market, ask why.
4. Ask about lock terms before price. A lock fixes your rate for a stated period. Ask how long it runs and what happens if you need an extension.
5. If you like the number, lock it. Floating means accepting the risk that the market moves against you before you commit. Some borrowers can carry that risk. Know which kind you are.
6. Run investor coverage on the locked terms. If a rental no longer clears, look at structure options before you look at the offer price. Our loan options page carries the current guidelines for the programs we arrange, subject to lender guidelines.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file.
For the end-to-end picture of how these loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Should I wait for rates to drop before buying?
Nobody can tell you rates will drop, and the dated sources lean the other way right now. The Fed raised its target range on September 16, and CNBC reported that 16 of 18 policymakers expected another hike this year. If the purchase makes sense for your budget and timeline, waiting is a bet, not a safe default. Decide based on your own numbers.
How many quotes should I get?
A handful from reputable lenders is enough. Freddie Mac said on September 10 that multiple quotes can potentially save buyers thousands. The value comes from comparing them on the same day with the same scenario. More quotes across more days adds market noise without adding information.
Is the Freddie Mac rate what I will actually pay?
Probably not. The survey averages conventional, conforming purchase loans for borrowers with 20% down and excellent credit, and it lags the daily market. For the week of September 24, 2026, it read 7.03%, while Mortgage News Daily’s index read 7.45% on September 24. Your own terms depend on your file, the property, the lender and the day. Exact terms depend on the lender’s guidelines, property type, leverage, and a full review of the borrower’s file.
Does a rate lock protect me if rates keep climbing?
Yes, for the period the lock covers. A lock fixes the quoted rate for a stated period, so a later market jump does not change your number. Ask about the lock’s length and what happens if you need more time. Also ask how it works if rates fall.
Why are refinance applications so weak?
Most owners hold loans with rates below today’s market. The MBA’s Refinance Index for the week ending September 18 was 62% below a year earlier. When the new rate is higher than the old one, a refinance rarely helps unless you need cash or a different structure for another reason.
About Lendmire
Lendmire, NMLS# 2371349, is a mortgage broker with two platforms: DSCR investor lending across 41 markets, including Washington, D.C., and consumer mortgage programs in 16 states, all arranged through wholesale lending partners. This column is written by Lendmire’s founder and reflects the market as of its publication date; program terms and availability are set by the lender on each file. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
Scotsman Guide’s Top Mortgage Workplace list for 2026 documents Lendmire’s recognition.
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References
1. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
2. Freddie Mac release, week of September 3, 2026
3. CNBC on the Mortgage News Daily index, September 24, 2026
4. CNBC on the 10-year Treasury yield, September 23, 2026
5. CNBC on the 10-year Treasury yield, September 26, 2026
6. Mortgage Bankers Association weekly survey, September 23, 2026
8. HousingWire on August existing-home sales, September 10, 2026
9. PR Newswire — Redfin Reports Pending Home Sales Dip to Lowest Level in Nearly 3 Years
10. Federal Reserve FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
11. CNBC on the Fed decision, September 16, 2026
12. Freddie Mac release, week of September 10, 2026
13. Inman on new-home sales, September 25, 2026
14. Scotsman Guide on lender outlook, July 21, 2026
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: Why A Local Real Estate Broker Matters As Buyers Gain Leverage, September 2026? · September 2026: Buyers Need A Real Estate Agent As Supply Grows, Rates Climb · Listing Your Home For Sale This Fall As Inventory Climbs And Rates Rise
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
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Disclosures. The information presented in this article is general market commentary, not financial, legal, or tax advice. Lendmire is a mortgage brokerage (NMLS# 2371349) — not a direct lender or depository institution — and loan placement is subject to lender underwriting. Nothing in this content represents a commitment to lend. Loan terms, pricing, and program availability vary based on borrower qualifications, property characteristics, and state of subject property, and are subject to change at any time. Lendmire complies with Equal Housing Opportunity requirements. Consumer access: nmlsconsumeraccess.org.