The Quick Read: As of September 28, 2026, the best location is the one where your budget and the local market agree. Mortgage rates have climbed for several weeks, so the monthly cost now shapes the choice of place as much as the neighborhood does. Supply is the highest in years, and buyers hold real leverage in parts of the Sun Belt and in new construction. Set your budget first, then compare markets.
Key Takeaways
- Freddie Mac’s weekly 30-year average rose in each of the last three surveys through the week of September 24, 2026. That is a 32 basis point climb in three weeks.
- Existing-home supply reached 4.9 months in August, per NAR’s report released September 10. That is the highest in more than a decade.
- Redfin’s August data show sellers outnumbering buyers in a long list of Sun Belt metros. Prices there are softer than the national picture.
- Builders are cutting prices and offering incentives, per the NAHB’s September 16 survey.
- Fix your budget first. A “buyer’s market” label is a local fact, not a national one.
What Changed This Month
Rates moved up, and they moved in steps. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, as published by FRED, put the 30-year fixed at 6.71% for the week of September 3. It then read 6.76%, 6.95% and 7.03% for the weeks of September 10, 17 and 24. That is 32 basis points in three weeks. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.
The Mortgage Bankers Association saw the same thing in its own data. Its survey for the week ending September 18, released September 23, put its 30-year contract rate at 7.12%. That was the highest since May 2024. The refinance index sat well below its level a year earlier. The share of applications for adjustable-rate mortgages rose as well, a sign that some borrowers were looking for alternatives to fixed-rate pricing.
The Fed added to the mood. On September 16 the FOMC raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points, to 3.75%–4.00%. It was the first increase since 2023. The Fed’s press conference materials describe inflation as elevated. Mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield more than the Fed’s target, and much of the move came as markets priced in a hike. I’d be careful with any headline that says the Fed “caused” the jump.
Three market sources use three different yardsticks for the 30-year mortgage benchmark. Freddie Mac’s survey is a weekly average built from purchase applications. The MBA reports a contract figure from its application survey. Mortgage News Daily publishes a daily index. They run at different levels on the same day, so don’t mix them in one sentence.
Where Is Supply Growing?
Supply is the other half of the story. NAR’s existing-home sales report, released September 10, covers August. Sales fell 2.0% from July to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 3.98 million. Inventory was 1.62 million homes, a 4.9-month supply. That compares with 4.6 months a year earlier.
The median existing-home price was $429,100, up 1.6% from a year earlier. NAR counts it as the 38th straight month of annual gains. So the market is looser, but it isn’t falling apart.
That is the first thing to hold in your head. More choice does not mean falling prices everywhere.
New construction tells a sharper story. Census data for August, released September 24, put new-home sales at 684,000 at an annual rate. The median new-home price was $393,700, down 5.8% from a year earlier. Months’ supply was 8.5. Census says the monthly and annual sales changes sit within its margin of error, so I wouldn’t call it a rebound.
Builders are leaning on the buyer, too. The NAHB’s survey, published September 16, found 38% of builders cut prices in September, up from 35% in August. The average cut was 6%. Sixty-six percent used incentives, the highest share since December. The NAHB’s chairman said buyer traffic has weakened largely because of rising mortgage rates.
Which Metros Favor Buyers Right Now?
Redfin’s report on August data, published September 10, found sellers outnumbered buyers by 58% nationally. That is the widest gap in its records. Nashville led with 139% more sellers than buyers. Miami followed at 138% and Houston at 131%. A September 15 TheStreet report on the same data counted 36 of 49 large metros as buyer’s markets. The ten strongest were all in the Sun Belt, four of them in Texas.
Redfin’s monthly tracker, dated September 9, adds the price side. Nationally, 59.5% of homes sold below their original asking price in August. Here is how a few of the metros compare:
| Metro | Sellers over buyers | Sold below asking |
|---|---|---|
| Nashville | 139% | — |
| Miami | 138% | 83% |
| Houston | 131% | — |
| San Antonio | 116% | 82% |
| Austin | 115% | 82% |
| Dallas | 108% | 79% |
Read this table as a map of leverage, not a shopping list. Redfin’s “buyer’s market” is its own proprietary measure: a metro needs more than 10% more sellers than buyers. Redfin also says heavy homebuilding added the inventory in Nashville, Texas and Florida. In Miami, buyers also face insurance costs, HOA fees and climate risk. Soft prices there may reflect weak local demand as much as an oversupply of homes.
The same Redfin report says the seller’s-market metros saw prices up an average of 5.5%. That’s the other side of the divide.
What It Means for Home Buyers
Higher rates punish the buyer who shops for a house first and a budget second. Say you’ve found a place you love in a tight market. A rate move of a full point on that purchase adds a lot to the monthly cost, and you have no room to negotiate it away. Now say you’re looking in a market where sellers outnumber buyers. There, a price cut or a seller credit can absorb part of the same increase.
That is the case for letting location do some of the work. In a soft market, buyers can ask for things that don’t exist in a tight one: a lower price, closing help, a repair credit, time to decide.
New construction deserves a look for the same reason. A builder offering an incentive is spending its own margin to move a house. The incentive can be a price cut, a closing-cost credit or a rate buydown. Which one you get depends on the builder and the lender, subject to lender guidelines. Compare the whole package, not the sticker price.
But incentives are not a cure-all. A HousingWire report on September 16 says discounts are not unlocking new-home demand. The builder index sat at 32, its lowest since September 2025. Builders are discounting because demand is weak, and weak demand can mean softer resale values later.
The buyers I’d worry about most are the ones who need to qualify on something other than a paycheck. Self-employed borrowers can use programs that read bank deposits instead of traditional personal-income documentation, subject to lender guidelines. If that’s you, my bank-statement first-home piece walks through how it works. The current guidelines live on our loan options page.
My Take
Here’s my read. The question isn’t “where is the best city?” The data can’t answer that, and I’d distrust anyone who claims it can. The data answers a different question: where does a buyer hold leverage, and what is that leverage worth against a higher rate?
In the Sun Belt buyer’s markets, the leverage looks real. Sellers are cutting, supply is high, and the share of homes selling under asking is large. But those same markets carry risks the headline hides. Insurance, HOA dues and climate exposure sit on top of the purchase price. (Redfin itself flags them for Miami.) A cheap house with a heavy carrying cost is not a cheap house.
The tighter markets are for a reason. Prices there are still rising. A buyer who waits for a rate drop might get the lower rate and pay a higher price. Nobody can time both.
And the rate? I wouldn’t bet on a quick reversal. The Fed has raised once, and CNBC’s September 16 coverage says the committee signaled another hike may come. The MBA’s September 25 chart note lowered its 2026 and 2027 origination forecasts. That doesn’t say rates will keep rising. It says the people who watch this closest are planning for a slow market.
So I’d plan for today’s rate and treat any decline as a bonus. A deal that only works if rates fall is a bet, not a plan.
Is It Really a Buyer’s Market?
Both answers are partly right. Redfin says yes, and its numbers back it up. NAR’s 4.9 months is the highest in over ten years, but it’s still short of what the industry once called a glut. And NAR’s median price is still rising.
Here is how I’d square it. The national numbers blend very different places. Texas and Florida metros are soft. Others are not. The MBA’s September 2 release noted that in many local markets buyers have plenty of homes to choose from. “Many local markets” is the honest phrase. It is not “all.”
So check your own market. Look at how long homes sit, how many sell below asking, and how many sellers are cutting. If those readings are soft, you have leverage. If they aren’t, you have a rate problem and no offsetting discount.
What I’d Do Now
None of this is advice to buy or sell a specific asset. It’s the order I’d work in.
1. Fix the budget first. Decide what monthly cost you can carry at today’s rate, then work backward to a price. Don’t build the budget on a rate you hope to see.
2. Compare two or three markets, not one. If you have flexibility on where you live, line up the leverage, the carrying costs and the price trend side by side. Treat insurance and HOA dues as part of the price.
3. Ask for the concession. In a soft market, a seller credit or price cut is realistic. In new construction, ask what the builder will put in writing.
4. Know what a lock is. A rate lock holds a quoted rate for a set period while the loan moves forward. If you like the deal and the payment fits your budget, lock it. Floating means leaving the rate unlocked and accepting whatever the market does next. In a market where rates have risen for weeks, floating is a bet.
5. Don’t compare quotes from different days. A quote on Monday and a quote on Thursday reflect different markets. Gather them together, or the comparison tells you nothing.
6. Look at the structure, not just the rate. Some borrowers consider adjustable-rate loans. The MBA’s survey for the week ending September 25, released September 30, reported applications down 6%. Haver Analytics reports the ARM share rose to 10.3%. An adjustable loan resets, so it only fits a buyer who understands the reset and can handle it. Exact terms depend on the lender’s guidelines, property type, leverage, and a full review of the borrower’s file.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file.
For the end-to-end picture of how DSCR loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Should I wait for rates to come down before I buy?
Only if waiting costs you nothing. Rates have climbed for weeks, and the Fed has signaled it may not be done. NAR shows prices still rising year over year, so waiting can raise the price you pay. Buy when the monthly cost fits your budget and the house fits your life. If rates fall later, a refinance may be an option, subject to lender guidelines.
Is my local market a buyer’s market?
Check three things. Look at how many homes in your area sell below the asking price, how many listings are sitting, and whether sellers are cutting prices. Redfin’s August data put a long list of Sun Belt metros well into buyer’s territory. Many other places aren’t. A national headline can’t answer this for you.
Does a buyer’s market mean prices are falling?
Not necessarily. NAR’s median existing-home price was up 1.6% from a year earlier in August. A buyer’s market means more bargaining room, not a universal price drop. In a few places the room is large. In many places it’s thin.
Are new-construction incentives better than buying a resale home?
They can be, but compare the full package. The NAHB found 66% of builders used incentives in September. Builders are offering them because demand is weak. Ask what the incentive is, whether it’s in writing, and how the builder’s price compares with similar resale homes nearby.
I’m self-employed. Can I still buy this fall?
You may be able to, depending on the program and your documentation. Some programs qualify borrowers on bank deposits instead of traditional personal-income documentation, subject to lender guidelines. Our loan options page carries the current guidelines, and a broker can compare how different lenders treat your income.
About Lendmire
Lendmire, NMLS# 2371349, is a mortgage broker with two platforms: DSCR investor lending across 41 markets, including Washington, D.C., and consumer mortgage programs in 16 states, all arranged through wholesale lending partners. This column is written by Lendmire’s founder and reflects the market as of its publication date; program terms and availability are set by the lender on each file. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
1. MBA Weekly Applications Survey, week ending September 18 (released September 23, 2026)
2. Federal Reserve, September 16, 2026 press conference materials
3. NAR existing-home sales report, August data (released September 10, 2026)
4. Census/HUD new residential sales, August data (released September 24, 2026)
5. NAHB builder sentiment release, September 16, 2026
6. PR Newswire — Its Now the Strongest Buyers Market on Record Driven by the Sun Belt
7. September 15 TheStreet report
8. Redfin monthly market tracker, September 9, 2026
9. HousingWire, builder discounts and new-home demand, September 16, 2026
10. CNBC, Fed rate decision, September 16, 2026
11. MBA Weekly Applications Survey, week ending August 28 (released September 2, 2026)
12. MBA Weekly Applications Survey, week ending September 25 (released September 30, 2026)
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: Why A Local Real Estate Broker Matters As Buyers Gain Leverage, September 2026? · September 2026: Buyers Need A Real Estate Agent As Supply Grows, Rates Climb · Listing Your Home For Sale This Fall As Inventory Climbs And Rates Rise
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
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Disclosures. The information presented in this article is general market commentary, not financial, legal, or tax advice. Lendmire is a mortgage brokerage (NMLS# 2371349) — not a direct lender or depository institution — and loan placement is subject to lender underwriting. Nothing in this content represents a commitment to lend. Loan terms, pricing, and program availability vary based on borrower qualifications, property characteristics, and state of subject property, and are subject to change at any time. Lendmire complies with Equal Housing Opportunity requirements. Consumer access: nmlsconsumeraccess.org.