The Quick Read: As of September 28, 2026, buyers have more homes to pick from, and a sturdy patio, walkway or retaining wall can help yours stand out. Existing-home sales slid in August, supply rose, and builders are leaning on incentives. Homeowners hold record equity, but the Fed’s September 16 hike made borrowing against it more expensive, especially on variable-rate lines. My view: do the work if it fixes something buyers will notice, and price the financing before you fall in love with the plan.
Key Takeaways
- NAR’s August report, released September 10, showed existing-home sales down 2.0% on the month and months of supply at 4.9, the highest in over ten years.
- Builders are competing for the same buyers. The NAHB Housing Market Index, as reported on September 25, showed 66% of builders using incentives and 38% cutting prices.
- Record equity does not mean cheap access. Variable-rate lines follow prime, and prime moved a full quarter point after the Fed’s September 16 decision.
- I found no independent data on what hardscaping returns at resale. Treat any precise payback figure you see as marketing, not evidence.
- A HELOC (a home equity line of credit) is one way to pay for exterior work. Weigh it against what the line costs if rates keep climbing.
What Changed This Month
The housing market got more crowded. NAR’s existing-home sales report, dated September 10, put August sales at a 3.98 million annual pace. That was down 2.0% from July and 1.2% from a year earlier. Inventory stood at 1.62 million homes. Months of supply reached 4.9, the highest in over ten years, according to NAR’s chief economist. The all-types median price was $429,100, up 1.6% from a year ago.
Don’t read that as a collapse. Year to date, sales are up 1.6%. HousingWire noted it was the first month below a 4-million pace since June 2025. So the market softened. It did not fall off a cliff.
New homes add to the pressure. The Census Bureau’s new residential sales report, released September 24, put August sales at 684,000 annualized. That is up 6.4% from July and 2.0% below a year earlier, and both changes sit within the margin of error. The median new-home price was $393,700, down 5.8% from a year earlier. Months of supply came in at 8.5.
Builders keep sweetening deals. Per the NAHB Housing Market Index as reported by Inman on September 25, 38% of builders cut prices in September and 66% used incentives. In August those shares were 35% and 63%. The 66% is the highest share since December.
I’ll be precise here, because the headline version gets it wrong. “Most builders are cutting prices” is not true. Most builders are offering incentives. Price cuts are closer to four in ten.
The Fed raised rates. On September 16, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC statement announced a 12–0 vote to raise the target range by a quarter point, to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. CNBC called it the first hike in more than three years. It also reported that 16 of 18 dot-plot participants expect another increase this year. Big banks followed by raising prime, the benchmark for many variable-rate home equity lines, by the same quarter point.
Mortgage rates moved up too. Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, per Freddie Mac’s PMMS. That was up from 6.95% the week before and 6.30% a year earlier. Mortgage News Daily’s index, a daily measure, closed at 7.45% on September 24, CNBC reported. That was its highest level since April 2024.
Why two different numbers? Freddie’s survey is a weekly average. The daily index moves first and shows the latest level. Neither is a quote for you.
Why Does a Crowded Market Change the Hardscaping Question?
A crowded market makes small differences matter. When buyers have more homes to see and less urgency, they compare. Realtor.com’s economist said in a September 10 release that buyers have more choice and less urgency, but rates give little relief. A house that photographs well and looks cared for at the curb gets a second look. A house with a cracked walkway and a sinking patio gets a mental discount.
First, a plain definition. Hardscaping is the non-living part of a yard: patios, walkways, driveways, steps, retaining walls, fire pits, edging. Plants are softscape. Stone, pavers and concrete are hardscape.
Here is my opinion, stated as one. In a market with more listings, exterior work does one of two jobs. It removes an objection, or it adds a reason to stay and look. Removing an objection comes first: drainage that pools against the house, broken steps, a failing retaining wall. Buyers and inspectors notice those things, and they turn into negotiating leverage against you.
Adding appeal comes second. A clean patio or a defined entry walk gives a listing photo something to show. It can help. I can’t tell you by how much, and I’m wary of anyone who can.
That is the honest gap in the research. I searched for independent data on hardscaping’s return at resale and on whether exterior upgrades help a listing sell sooner in this market. I found none I’d stand behind. So I won’t hand you a percentage. The evidence for this angle is the market pressure, not a payback table.
There’s also a split worth keeping in mind. Realtor.com’s weekly data, relayed by WRE News on September 24, showed active inventory up 5.8% from a year earlier and median list prices down 1.3%. That was the 36th consecutive annual decline in list prices. NAR’s closed-sale median, by contrast, is up 1.6%. One measures asking prices, the other measures what closed. Both can be true at once, and sellers need to watch the first one, because that’s what buyers see when they shop.
One more caution. Listings are up, but Realtor.com’s report says active inventory is still about 11% below pre-pandemic levels. More choice than last year is not the same as a glut. Your local market may look nothing like the national one, and this column is about national numbers, not yours.
What Does It Mean for Homeowners With Equity?
You’re sitting on a lot of equity, and it costs more to borrow against than it did a month ago. ICE’s August Mortgage Monitor put mortgage-holder equity at a record $18 trillion in the second quarter. Tappable equity, meaning what owners could borrow while keeping a cushion, was $11.7 trillion across 47.5 million borrowers. That report is from early August, so treat it as background, not a live reading.
ICE’s June report added useful color. Equity withdrawals hit their highest first-quarter level since 2021, and second-lien lending had its strongest first quarter in nearly two decades. The reason is simple. Many owners hold a first mortgage they don’t want to give up, so they borrow with a second loan on top. That is the lock-in effect, and it explains why refinance activity is so weak.
How weak? The MBA’s weekly applications survey, released September 23 for the week ending September 18, showed the refinance index down 3% on the week and 62% below a year earlier. The composite index fell 1.5%. The seasonally adjusted purchase index fell 1%. The average 30-year contract rate in that survey moved up by about 15 basis points from the prior week. Final terms depend on lender guidelines, property type, leverage, and the borrower’s complete credit picture.
A month earlier the picture was calmer. The MBA’s September 2 release showed applications up 0.8% for the week ending August 28, and the contract rate at 6.79%, barely changed from 6.78%. By my arithmetic, that is about 33 basis points higher between the two releases.
Two more things to hold onto.
- Equity is not evenly spread. ICE also counts about 813,000 underwater borrowers, up 44% from a year earlier. A record total says little about your house.
- Tappable is not the same as wise to tap. The number describes what’s available, not what’s prudent.
Is a HELOC the Right Way to Pay for It?
A HELOC can fit a hardscaping project, but it is a variable-rate tool, and that’s the catch this month. A HELOC works like a credit card secured by your house. You draw what you need, up to a limit, and you pay interest on the balance. Many are tied to prime, so the cost moves when prime moves.
That is the cleanest lesson from September. The Fed raised its target range by a quarter point, and prime followed by the same amount, right away. Fixed mortgage rates did not move in lockstep. Freddie Mac’s 30-year average rose 19 basis points the week of the hike and 8 more the week after. That is a different mechanism with a different timeline.
So the misreading I’d warn you about is “the Fed hiked, so my cost is up 25 basis points.” It depends on the product. A prime-linked line repriced by the full move. A fixed-rate first mortgage you already hold did not change at all.
To see what a move means, use a plain hypothetical. If a variable rate goes from 7% to 8%, that is a full point on whatever you’ve drawn. The bigger the balance and the longer you carry it, the more that point costs. Dots from the Fed’s September projections point to more hikes. TD Economics noted the median projection for the end of 2026 rose to 4.1% from 3.8%. How long prime stays elevated, and whether it climbs again, is an open question.
If you want to see how these lines are structured, start with our HELOC programs page, which carries the current guidelines. Features vary by lender, and some programs let you fix part of a balance, subject to lender guidelines. I’m not quoting anything here, and I can’t tell you what your cost would be.
My Take
I’ll say it plainly. Hardscaping can be smart in this market, but only for specific reasons.
Fix first, decorate second. In eighteen years in lending, the pattern I’ve watched repeat is that buyers forgive a dated kitchen sooner than they forgive a problem they think will cost money. Drainage problems, failing walls and trip hazards fall in that second bucket, so address those before anything cosmetic. They protect your price whether or not they add to it.
Be skeptical of upgrades sold on a return. With no independent data on hardscaping’s resale return, anyone quoting you a neat percentage is guessing. Price the job against what it solves and what you’d enjoy if the house doesn’t sell. That framing has the added benefit of being honest.
Don’t assume the borrowing is cheap. This is where I’d slow down. Rates rose on almost every measure I track this month, and a variable-rate line reprices with prime. A project that penciled in August may look different in October. That doesn’t make a HELOC wrong. It makes the cost a moving target you have to plan for.
I might be overcautious. Some owners will reasonably say the equity is there, the work is modest, and they’ll pay the line down within the year. That’s a fair plan. The question to ask is whether you can carry the balance if prime rises again, not just at today’s level.
This market is not a panic. Sales are up year to date. The median price is still up. Builders are leaning on incentives, not cutting deeply. A sensible seller spends on what buyers notice and does not overcorrect.
What I’d Do Now
This is general guidance, not advice to buy or sell any particular asset.
1. Walk the exterior like a stranger. Look at the drive, the entry walk, the steps, the patio and any walls. List what’s broken or unsafe. Put that list ahead of anything decorative.
2. Get a scope and a price before you touch equity. Know the number for the work itself. Then decide how to pay for it.
3. Compare funding options side by side, on the same day. Quotes gathered on different days aren’t comparable, because the market moved between them. If you’re comparing a HELOC with a cash-out refinance or simply paying from savings, line them up at one time.
4. Understand the lock. A rate lock holds a quoted rate for a set period, and it only helps after you’ve decided to proceed. If you like the terms and you’re ready, lock it. If you’re still deciding, floating means the cost can change while you wait.
5. Stress-test a variable line. Take the balance you’d carry and ask how you’d feel if prime rose again. The Fed’s own projections suggest that’s not a far-fetched scenario.
6. Keep it modest if you might sell soon. If listing is a real possibility, favor repairs and simple curb appeal over a large build-out. With more competing listings and buyers shopping slowly, a big project has more time to lose its edge.
7. Think about the other side if you own rentals. I found no rental data for this column, so I won’t guess at rent trends. If you hold investment property and want to understand how investor financing works, our complete DSCR loans guide explains how lenders look at rental income instead of personal income.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does hardscaping increase my home’s value?
It can help a listing stand out, but I can’t give you a reliable percentage. I found no independent data on resale return for this column. Judge the work by what it fixes, what buyers will notice and what you’d enjoy if you stay.
Should I use a HELOC to pay for it?
Maybe, but price it carefully. Many lines follow prime, and prime rose by a quarter point after the Fed’s September 16 hike. If you’d struggle to carry the balance after another increase, consider a smaller project or another funding source.
Did mortgage rates jump by the same amount as the Fed’s hike?
No. Freddie Mac’s survey showed the 30-year fixed up 19 basis points the week of September 17 and 8 more for the week of September 24. Prime-linked lines moved by the full quarter point. Fixed mortgages follow the bond market, not the Fed’s rate directly.
Is the housing market collapsing because sales fell?
No. NAR reported August sales down 2.0% from July, but year-to-date sales are up 1.6% and the median price is up 1.6% from a year ago. Supply is higher and buyers have more choice. That’s a softer market, not a crash.
Can I borrow against all my record equity?
No. Totals from ICE’s August report say a lot of equity exists, but it’s unevenly spread, and lenders set their own limits, subject to lender guidelines. The same report counts roughly 813,000 underwater borrowers. Your own balance, value and credit decide what’s available.
About Lendmire
Lendmire — NMLS# 2371349 — is a mortgage brokerage whose founder writes this column. DSCR investor programs reach 41 markets, including Washington, D.C.; consumer programs such as bank statement, HELOC and down payment assistance loans are arranged in 16 states; every loan is placed with, and underwritten by, a wholesale lender under that lender’s guidelines. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
1. NAR existing-home sales page
2. HousingWire, August existing-home sales
3. Census Bureau, new residential sales
4. Inman, August new-home sales and builder incentives
5. Federal Reserve FOMC statement
7. CNBC, 30-year rate report citing Mortgage News Daily
10. MBA Weekly Applications Survey
11. MBA Weekly Applications Survey
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: Why A Local Real Estate Broker Matters As Buyers Gain Leverage, September 2026? · September 2026: Buyers Need A Real Estate Agent As Supply Grows, Rates Climb · Listing Your Home For Sale This Fall As Inventory Climbs And Rates Rise
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
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Disclosures. The information presented in this article is general market commentary, not financial, legal, or tax advice. Lendmire is a mortgage brokerage (NMLS# 2371349) — not a direct lender or depository institution — and loan placement is subject to lender underwriting. Nothing in this content represents a commitment to lend. Loan terms, pricing, and program availability vary based on borrower qualifications, property characteristics, and state of subject property, and are subject to change at any time. Lendmire complies with Equal Housing Opportunity requirements. Consumer access: nmlsconsumeraccess.org.