The Quick Read: Usually not. On a cash-out refinance of a short-term rental you already own, most programs in Lendmire’s wholesale network want the property’s own booking record, typically about 12 months of hosting history tied to bank deposits, rather than a third-party revenue forecast. A projection helps you decide whether to pursue the deal. It rarely becomes the income figure the coverage test runs against.
- A projection is a purchase-side tool. A refinance leans on actual bookings.
- Short-term rental cash-out leverage tops out at 70% LTV on short-term-rental collateral, below the 75% ceiling on standard rentals.
- Expect a 640+ credit score and roughly 12 months of hosting experience.
- The coverage floor is 1.00 on a refinance, and that ratio compares rent to PITIA only.
- A newly bought or newly converted rental may need to season before a cash-out works. Terms vary by lender guidelines, property type, leverage, credit profile, and full file review.
Why a Projection Usually Doesn’t Carry a Refinance
A forecast is an average of other people’s results. Your listing already has its own results. That is the whole problem.
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AirDNA’s Rentalizer documentation says the tool finds comparable listings within a 10-mile radius and takes a weighted average of their historical performance. It returns a 12-month projection that assumes the property is available all 365 days. The projected revenue includes cleaning fees and leaves out host fees, other fees and taxes. So the number is gross, optimistic on availability, and built from neighbors, not from your property.
Analysts who test these tools say the same. VaultSTR reports that independent tests put Rentalizer 15–30% off actual performance, usually on the high side, and suggests underwriting a first year at 60–75% of the projection. That is a vendor’s opinion, not an audited study. Still, it matches what a broker sees across files: a deal that only works at the full projection is fragile.
Most programs in the network treat a projection as support, not proof. On a purchase with no operating history, some select lenders will accept a Rentalizer report, others want an appraiser’s short-term-rental analysis, and some want both. On a refinance, the history on the property is the stronger evidence, so that is what gets underwritten.
What the Appraisal Can and Can’t Do
The appraisal sets value, and value sets your leverage ceiling. It does not prove nightly income.
The standard one-unit rent schedule, Form 1007, was built around monthly leases. Fannie Mae’s Appraiser Update says the form was not designed for single-family properties used as short-term rentals, that it asks for monthly market rent, and that multiplying a nightly fee by 30 is incorrect. That is agency guidance, and DSCR loans are not agency products. It is useful here only to show why the form can’t price nightly stays. The 2–4 unit income report, Form 1025, has the same monthly-lease orientation.
On a short-term-rental file, an appraiser may add a separate narrative analysis or addendum. The lender, not the appraiser, makes the final income call. So your booking history carries the income case, and the appraisal carries the value case.
How the File Is Built, Step by Step
The mechanics are the same on most programs, though each lender has its own checklist.
1. Pick the income basis. A purchase with no history may use a projection or an appraiser’s analysis. A refinance or cash-out uses documented history: platform payout reports, a property-manager statement, or bank deposits.
2. Apply the haircut. Many programs count less than gross. A projection is revenue before host fees, taxes, management and other costs, so a lender may trim it before using it.
3. Run the coverage ratio. Qualifying monthly income divided by PITIA (principal, interest, taxes, insurance and any HOA dues). Taxes, insurance and HOA don’t shrink when income is trimmed, so a smaller income number cuts the supportable loan by a larger share than the haircut itself.
4. Size the cash-out. Two limits compete: value times the cash-out LTV cap, and the loan the coverage ratio supports. The lower one binds. Then payoff, closing costs and reserves come out of the proceeds.
5. Assemble the documents. Platform payout reports, bank statements showing the deposits, any property-manager statement, the AirDNA report as support, insurance written for short-term-rental use, evidence of local permit compliance, and the usual entity, title and payoff items.
Reserves vary by lender, leverage, loan size and transaction type. About 6 months of PITIA is common, and larger loans typically step up from there.
What 70% LTV and a 1.00 Floor Mean in Practice
Exact terms depend on the lender’s guidelines, property type, leverage, and a full review of the borrower’s file.
Short-term-rental cash-out leverage runs up to 70% LTV on short-term-rental collateral, with a 640+ score and roughly 12 months of hosting experience as the usual expectations. Standard long-term rentals reach about 75% on a cash-out. Short-term-rental purchase leverage tops out at 75% on the strongest files. Coverage on a refinance starts at 1.00 on these programs. Subject to lender guidelines, a separate select-lender path goes below 1.00 with leverage and terms adjusted.
Clearing 1.00 is not the same as positive cash flow. The ratio compares rent to PITIA only. Repairs, vacancy, management, utilities and capex sit outside it. A short-term rental with high turnover costs can clear the test and still run thin.
Picture a rental whose projection looks like 1.4x coverage on paper. Apply a haircut and a real-world trailing record that runs lower, and the file may land near 1.1x. Same house, same debt, a much smaller margin. That gap is why a seasoned operator plans a cash-out around the documented number.
Edge Cases That Change the Answer
Recently purchased or newly converted. Under about 12 months of hosting history means no full record. The file may fall back to an appraiser’s analysis, a long-term-rent basis, or waiting. A projection alone usually won’t carry a cash-out.
Peak-season windows. A trailing period captured in peak season is unlikely to be accepted as representative, because seasonality matters.
Projection versus actuals. When both exist, underwriters tend to rely on the lower supported figure.
Thin markets. BNBCalc’s review says estimates in thin or rural markets can land 15–30% off in either direction and that the tool uses flat expense defaults, so real costs can be understated. Fewer comparable listings means wider error.
Multi-platform listings. AirDNA’s calculator describes one blended projection per address. If bookings split across platforms, payout reports from each one belong in the file.
Local rules. Short-term rental rules can vary by city, county, HOA, and property type, so investors should confirm local rules before relying on projected rental income.
Key Terms Defined
Rentalizer projection: A forecast of a property’s revenue built from the weighted performance of nearby comparable listings.
Hosting history: The documented record of bookings and payouts on your own listing, usually about 12 months.
Seasoning: The ownership or operating period a lender wants to see before it will lend cash-out against a property.
Coverage ratio (DSCR): Qualifying monthly income divided by PITIA. It measures whether the property’s income covers its payment.
Haircut: The reduction a lender applies to gross income before it counts toward coverage.
Where Projection-Based Files Go Wrong
- Overstated income. Stacking the full projection against the full payment, with no haircut.
- Mismatched evidence. Platform reports that don’t tie to bank deposits.
- Thin history presented as full history. A few strong months do not make a trailing record.
- Ignoring the appraisal gap. Value comes in low and the leverage cap, not the coverage ratio, sets the proceeds.
- Wrong insurance. A policy written for a long-term tenant, not short-term guests.
Your Path by Situation
| Your situation | Likely path |
|---|---|
| 12+ months of clean history | Cash-out on documented bookings |
| Under 12 months | Season it, or a different income basis |
| Newly converted from long-term | Document the conversion, then season |
| No history, buying now | Purchase file with projection or appraiser analysis |
If a lender declines the projection, the realistic options are to wait and build the record, take a smaller cash-out, or use a long-term-rent basis if the property supports it. Pre-application, route payouts to one account, export platform reports monthly, and keep an entity-level bank account. Underwrite your own deal below the projection. For related paths, the complete DSCR loans guide covers program basics.
If you are buying or refinancing a rental property and want to see how the numbers work, Lendmire can help you compare DSCR loan options based on the property income, credit profile, leverage, and investor goals. Loan amounts run up to $3,000,000 on standard programs, and every file is reviewed subject to lender guidelines. This is not a commitment to lend.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can a lender use an AirDNA report at all on a cash-out?
Sometimes as support, rarely as the deciding figure. Most programs want booking history on a refinance and treat the report as a cross-check against your actuals.
How much hosting history do I need?
About 12 months is the usual expectation, along with a 640+ credit score. Payout reports and matching bank deposits make the record usable. Every figure here varies by lender and program — guidelines, property type, leverage, and credit profile all apply.
Will the appraisal count my Airbnb income?
Not directly. The standard rent schedule is built for monthly leases, so the appraiser may add a separate short-term-rental analysis, and the lender decides which income figure to use.
Is the 97.5% accuracy figure for AirDNA reliable for my property?
No. That figure circulates in investor forums and relates to supply-count capture, not revenue forecasts for one address. Treat it as unproven for underwriting.
What if my property is newly converted to short-term rental?
Expect to season. Without a full record, a projection alone usually won’t carry a cash-out, so plan the timeline before relying on proceeds.
For how equity extraction works on an investment property, see Lendmire’s guide to cash-out refinance on an investment property.
About Lendmire
Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349), a non-QM mortgage broker serving investors in 41 markets including Washington, D.C., helps structure DSCR scenarios commonly evaluated around a property’s rental income rather than personal income paperwork, subject to lender guidelines. A Scotsman Guide Top Mortgage Workplace in 2025 and 2026, Lendmire places loans through wholesale investor lenders and is not a direct lender.
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References
1. AirDNA Help: Rentalizer Revenue Calculator
2. VaultSTR: AirDNA Rentalizer Accuracy
3. Fannie Mae Appraiser Update
This article is part of Lendmire’s investment property cash-out refinance program — full qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the program page.
Related reading: Best Short-Term Rental Cash-Out Refinance Program to Go Fixed · Short-Term Rental Cash-Out Refinance Requirements to Pay for Renovations · Best Short-Term Rental Cash-Out Refinance Program to Maximize Cash Out
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
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Legal disclosures. Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) is a state-licensed mortgage brokerage that arranges financing through wholesale lender relationships. Lendmire is not a direct lender, depository institution, or registered financial advisor. The discussion above is general informational content about real estate financing — it is not financial, legal, or tax advice, and readers should consult licensed professionals for guidance on their individual circumstances. Loan inquiries are subject to lender underwriting; this article does not represent a commitment to lend. Loan terms, rates, and qualification standards vary by borrower, property, and state, and are subject to change at any time. Equal Housing Opportunity. NMLS Consumer Access: nmlsconsumeraccess.org.