The Quick Read: Use an AirDNA projection when the property has no operating history you control, and use Airbnb statements when a seasoned listing has records you can verify, because one estimates what a property could earn while the other documents what it did earn.
- AirDNA is a market-data estimate. Airbnb statements are a record of actual host earnings.
- A remote buyer cannot pull statements for a property they do not own yet. The seller holds the account.
- Short-term-rental (STR) files typically expect about 12 months of hosting history, so a projection often gets you to the purchase and your own statements support the next move.
- Lenders discount projections and test statements against deposits. The size of that adjustment varies by program.
Think of it this way. A projection is a forecast, and a statement is a receipt. Out-of-state buyers usually start with the forecast because the receipts belong to someone else. The honest answer is that neither document is better in the abstract. The better one is the one the property can actually produce, in the form the loan program wants to see.
Side-by-Side
The table shows how each document works in practice, based on published industry norms. Exact acceptance rules differ from one lender to the next, and the wholesale network behind Lendmire places files on both paths.
| Factor | AirDNA projection | Airbnb statements |
|---|---|---|
| What it measures | Projected revenue for the address | Actual past host earnings |
| Review basis | Estimated STR income | Documented trailing income |
| Documentation | Report on the subject address | Earnings CSV or PDF from the account |
| Who can produce it | Buyer, agent, or appraiser | Account holder, usually the seller |
| Property types | Any STR-eligible home, including no-history | Only homes with hosting history |
| Entity vesting | Report is not tied to an owner | Must match the account holder of record |
| Availability before offer | Yes | Depends on seller cooperation |
| Reserve expectations | Set by lender, leverage, loan size | Set by lender, leverage, loan size |
Reserves do not change with the document type. They change with the lender, the leverage, the loan size, and the transaction. Many files land around six months of PITIA (principal, interest, taxes, insurance, and association dues). Reserves can be waived only on conservative rate-term files at modest leverage with loans under $1,500,000. Loans above that size typically step up to about nine months.
Key Terms Defined
DSCR (debt service coverage ratio): Monthly rental income divided by the full monthly housing payment. A result of 1.00 means the income exactly covers the payment.
PITIA: Principal, interest, taxes, insurance, and association dues. This is the payment figure in the DSCR math.
Rentalizer: AirDNA’s address-level tool. It projects revenue for one property from comparable nearby listings.
ADR (average daily rate): The average nightly price actually earned across booked nights.
Haircut: The percentage a lender subtracts from projected or reported income before it counts toward coverage.
Trailing history: The recent past record of a property’s income, typically the last 12 months.
Two Different Kinds of Evidence
AirDNA is a data company. AirDNA’s investing tools show projected revenue for homes that are for sale. An independent review of the Rentalizer explains how it works. It picks comparable listings with a similar bedroom count, guest capacity, and property type. It then projects the address’s revenue from those comps’ ADR, occupancy, and seasonality.
So the number is about the neighborhood’s listings. It is not about the house.
An Airbnb statement is the opposite. Per Airbnb’s help center, a host can export a CSV from the Earnings page, filtered by listing, payout method, and date range. The file includes earnings, host service fees, cleaning fees if charged, gross earnings, and any taxes withheld. Hosts can also download monthly or yearly PDF reports from the same page.
Airbnb’s tax documents page adds that tax documents can reach back up to four years, depending on the hosting location and tax status. That depth can matter when a seller offers more than one season of records.
DSCR compares rent to PITIA only. Clearing 1.00 is not the same as positive cash flow. Repairs, vacancy, management, utilities, and capex sit outside that calculation, and that is truer for STRs than for long-term rentals. Both documents feed a coverage ratio. Neither one tells you what you will keep.
When AirDNA Is the Better Fit
A projection is the better tool when no usable history exists. That covers four common cases.
- A long-term rental converting to STR. The home has records, but none as a vacation rental.
- A new build. There is nothing to export.
- A seller who will not share statements. Without cooperation, you have no verified record.
- An early-stage offer. You need a number before you spend money on diligence.
Each of these cases leaves an out-of-state buyer without a record they can pull themselves. You do not hold the platform account, so you cannot generate the documents yourself. Any buyer-side figure for a home you do not own is a projection. That could be an AirDNA report or an appraiser’s STR analysis.
The tradeoff is accuracy. Independent reviewers say address-level Rentalizer estimates can miss actual performance by 15% to 30%, mostly on the high side, per VaultSTR. That review suggests underwriting the first year at 60% to 75% of the Rentalizer figure. A separate review from BNBCalc suggests discounting 15% to 25% in markets with fewer than a few hundred active listings. These are reviewers’ rules of thumb, not lender rules. They do show why an underwriter applies a haircut of their own.
Thin and seasonal markets deserve extra caution. The same BNBCalc review says AirDNA is stronger in mature, dense markets. A second VaultSTR review notes that blocked calendars can read as demand and inflate occupancy. An owner who blocks dates for personal use makes the market look busier than it is.
Here is a practitioner pattern worth knowing. Across STR files, the projection that looks fine on a spreadsheet often looks thinner once a lender applies its own adjustment. Buyers who run a conservative case before they offer tend to avoid surprises. A file that passes at the raw AirDNA number and fails after the haircut is common enough that you should test both versions up front.
When Airbnb Statements Are the Better Fit
Statements win when the property already has a record and the person presenting it can prove it. That usually means a seasoned STR, or a refinance on a property you have hosted yourself.
The core advantage is that statements describe this property, with this pricing and this management. A projection averages the neighbors. A statement shows what the home earned with a real host, real seasons, and real cancellations.
Three details decide whether a statement is usable.
Paid versus upcoming. Use the Paid figures for completed periods. Upcoming amounts can still change through cancellations and adjustments. Combining the two views carelessly can double-count income, as Slate Studio’s CSV walkthrough cautions.
Gross versus net of fees. Depending on which column a file uses, the number may be gross or net of Airbnb’s host fee. An underwriter has to know which one is being counted. Label it before you send it.
Single platform only. An Airbnb export captures Airbnb bookings. Vrbo stays, direct bookings, and manager payouts sit elsewhere. If the property runs on several channels, gather every channel’s statements or the property manager’s reports.
Statements are also where the loan program’s own rules show up. For most STR refinance files in the network, expect about 12 months of hosting experience and a minimum credit score around 640. Refinance leverage on STR collateral generally runs to about 70%. Cash-out on short-term-rental collateral tops out at 70%, versus about 75% on standard rentals. Coverage starts at 1.00 on STR purchases, and refinance files also start at 1.00. Stronger ratios open better terms.
Coverage below 1.00 is a separate matter. Many select programs start at 1.00, and a separate select-lender path goes below 1.00 with leverage and terms adjusted. It is not a different setting on the same program.
What If the Two Numbers Disagree?
Disagreement is normal, and the resolution depends on the program. Some lenders lean toward the lower figure, and others allow the stronger documented one. The answer is not universal, and a buyer should ask before choosing a strategy.
Questions to put to a lender or broker before you write an offer:
1. Does this program accept a projection on a purchase, an appraiser’s STR analysis, or both?
2. On a refinance, which income source controls if statements and projection differ?
3. Does the program want the platform statement, bank deposits, or both?
4. What adjustment applies to each source?
5. Is the 12-month hosting expectation met by my own history, or can a prior owner’s history count?
6. If the property is vested in an LLC, does the statement need to match the entity? This is subject to lender program eligibility.
Question five trips up many out-of-state buyers. Hosting experience tends to belong to the borrower, while the statements belong to the account holder. A seller’s history proves the property can perform. It does not always satisfy a program’s expectation about your experience.
The Out-of-State Wrinkle
Being remote changes how much weight each document deserves. Three things shift.
You cannot verify a seller’s statements yourself. Airbnb issues tax documents to the account holder, and what it issues depends on the tax information submitted, per Airbnb’s tax documents page. So a statement belongs to the seller of record. If the seller operates through an entity, the names have to line up with the statements.
Your projection needs a second opinion. Remote buyers do well to pair AirDNA with independent comps and a property manager’s pro forma. BNBCalc’s review calls the market-level data the stronger part of AirDNA. It also says Rentalizer uses flat expense defaults and leaves several line items at zero, so it understates costs. Treat it as a revenue tool. It is not a net income tool.
Local rules decide whether any income is real. Short-term rental rules can vary by city, county, HOA, and property type, so investors should confirm local rules before relying on projected rental income. No document, projected or historical, overrides that.
A realistic sequence for a remote buyer looks like this. You qualify on a projection or an appraiser’s STR analysis and buy. You host for about a year, then use your own statements to support a refinance if you want to restructure. That is a typical path, not a rule.
Tax treatment can depend on how the funds are used and how the property is held; investors should keep clear records and speak with a qualified tax professional before relying on any deduction.
Common Mistakes
- Treating the projection as net income. Rentalizer shows revenue. It is not profit.
- Treating the CSV total as what the property earned. It can mix Paid and Upcoming, and gross and net columns, and it covers one platform.
- Using one source only. A single document, projected or historical, hides its own bias. A host’s pricing and blocking choices shape statements. Comp selection shapes projections.
- Reading a market-wide accuracy claim as address-level accuracy. A strong market-level data score does not guarantee a single address. Reviewers still find address-level misses.
- Ignoring reserves. A strong coverage ratio does not waive reserve rules. Reserves vary by lender, leverage, loan size, and transaction.
- Assuming leverage and coverage trade off freely. A larger down payment can lift the DSCR, but it does not erase leverage caps, credit floors, or property eligibility. The strongest files clear both tests, enough equity and enough rental coverage.
- Overlooking ineligible property types. Manufactured homes, log homes, and barndominiums are not offered under these DSCR programs, however strong the STR numbers look.
The Balanced Verdict
If the property has no history, or you are buying from far away, an AirDNA projection or an appraiser’s STR analysis is usually where you start. Discount it, cross-check it, and never read it as profit.
If the property has history you can verify, statements carry more weight, because they describe the home itself. They take work: matching the account holder, separating gross from net, and collecting every channel.
For purchases on the strongest files, STR leverage tops out at 75% LTV, with a 640 minimum score and a 1.00 coverage floor on select programs. Everything is subject to lender guidelines, credit approval, and property review. For the full picture of how these loans fit together, see the complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can an out-of-state buyer use Airbnb statements on a purchase?
Only if the seller shares them. The buyer cannot generate statements for an account they do not control, so seller cooperation decides it. Even then, the history proves the property’s performance, not your hosting experience. Ask the lender how it treats a prior owner’s records.
Is AirDNA accepted as income documentation for an STR purchase?
On many STR purchases, a projection or an appraiser’s STR analysis fills the gap when no history exists. Programs differ on which one they take and how much they discount it. Confirm the specific program before you rely on a figure.
Which document is more accurate, AirDNA or Airbnb statements?
Statements describe actual earnings on one platform, so they are more accurate for a seasoned property. AirDNA is stronger at the market level than the address level. Independent reviewers report address-level estimates can drift 15% to 30%, per VaultSTR.
Does clearing 1.00 coverage mean the STR cash-flows?
No. DSCR compares rent to PITIA only. Repairs, vacancy, management, utilities, and capex sit outside it. Run your own operating budget on top of the lender’s coverage number.
What if the property is in an LLC?
The statements need to match the account holder of record, and the entity’s eligibility is subject to lender program eligibility. Clarify this before you request documents from a seller.
Next Step
If you are buying or refinancing a rental property and want to see how the numbers work, Lendmire can help you compare DSCR loan options based on the property income, credit profile, leverage, and investor goals. Lendmire is a mortgage broker arranging financing through select lenders across 41 markets, including Washington, D.C. You can reach the team at 828-256-2183.
About Lendmire
As a non-QM mortgage broker (NMLS# 2371349), Lendmire facilitates DSCR investor loans across 41 markets, including Washington, D.C. DSCR eligibility is generally reviewed around property-level rental income instead of personal income documentation, subject to lender guidelines, serving LLC-structured portfolios and self-employed borrowers who don’t fit conventional boxes. A two-time Scotsman Guide Top Mortgage Workplace (2025, 2026).
Get Started
Ready to find the right loan for you?
In about 30 seconds you can review financing options available for your investment property. No commitment required.
Informational only. Not a Loan Estimate, approval, or commitment to lend. Program availability and eligibility are subject to lender guidelines, credit approval, property review, and underwriting.
References
1. AirDNA: STR investing tools
2. VaultSTR: AirDNA Rentalizer review
3. Airbnb Help: Download your earnings
4. Airbnb Help: Tax docs and earnings summary
7. Slate Studio’s CSV walkthrough
This article is part of Lendmire’s short-term rental loan program — full qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the program page.
Related reading: Can You Get a DSCR Loan for an Airbnb in Washington, DC? · Can a First-Time STR Buyer Finance a Condo Airbnb With HOA Caps? · Can a First-Time STR Buyer Get a DSCR Loan on a Low-Value Cabin?
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
- Mortgage Loan Originator · NMLS# 1129696 · Verify on NMLS Consumer Access
- North Carolina Real Estate Broker · License# 343312 · Verify on NCREC
- North Carolina Insurance Producer · License# 19053198 · Property, Casualty, Life, Health · Verify on NAIC SBS
- Lendmire LLC · Firm NMLS# 2371349 · Verify firm licensure
Disclosure information. Lendmire is a state-licensed mortgage brokerage under NMLS# 2371349. Lendmire is not a depository institution, direct lender, or financial advisor — all loans referenced are placed through wholesale lender partners and are subject to each lender's underwriting standards. This article is provided for general informational purposes and is not a commitment to lend, nor does it constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. Loan programs, terms, rates, and qualification standards change without notice and depend on borrower profile, property type, and the state in which the subject property is located. Equal Housing Opportunity provider. NMLS Consumer Access: nmlsconsumeraccess.org.