The Quick Read: On a short-term rental refinance, actual statements are usually the stronger evidence. They show income the property has already earned. A projection is a third-party estimate, so it fits best where no operating record exists, and whether a refinance program accepts one depends on the lender’s guidelines.
- Actual statements mean about 12 months of platform payouts or property-manager reports, matched to bank deposits.
- A projection is a market-data estimate, such as an AirDNA-style report, and a lender may apply a heavier discount to it.
- On a short-term rental refinance, leverage tops out around 70% LTV, with a 640 credit score and about 12 months of hosting history typical on most files, subject to lender guidelines.
- Clearing a 1.00 coverage ratio does not mean the property makes money.
- Run both numbers before applying, so you know your fallback.
The Honest Answer: Who Each Option Is For
Actual statements are for the investor who already runs the rental and can show a full year of results. Projections are for the investor with no record yet, such as a new purchase or a fresh conversion. On a refinance, most select programs we place files with lean on history. A few lenders in the network will look at a projection, but you should not count on it.
Neither option is better in the abstract. The better one is the one your property can support with clean paper. A strong operating record beats an estimate. A thin record beats nothing only if the program accepts it.
Side-by-Side
The projection column reflects published industry norms. Lendmire’s wholesale network places both kinds of files, and the guidelines of the lender reviewing your file govern.
| Factor | Actual statements | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Review basis | Income the property already earned | Estimated income from market data |
| Documentation | 12 months of platform or manager reports, matched to deposits | Third-party market report; sometimes appraiser STR analysis |
| Typical use | Refinance of an operating rental | Purchase, or no operating record |
| Refinance acceptance | Most direct evidence | Varies by program |
| Discount before the ratio | Applied to gross income | Applied; may be heavier |
| Property types | Same eligibility rules either way | Same eligibility rules either way |
| Entity vesting | LLC title, subject to program terms | LLC title, subject to program terms |
| Reserves | Vary by lender, leverage, and loan size | Vary by lender, leverage, and loan size |
| Main weakness | Thin or uneven history | Estimates can overshoot reality |
What Counts as Actual Statements?
Actual statements are the property’s own income records for the trailing 12 months. That means platform payout history or monthly reports from a property manager. The Airbnb help center explains that Airbnb generates monthly and annual earnings statements that you can download as PDFs. Those reports break out gross earnings, adjustments, the host service fee, taxes withheld, and net pay.
Underwriters then check that the paper ties together. Bank deposits should match the payouts. If deposits land in a personal account while the property sits in an LLC, expect questions. LLC title can work, subject to program eligibility, and the guaranty usually comes from the owner personally.
Gross dashboard revenue is not qualifying income. Programs apply a discount to gross STR income, because the payment formula ignores higher operating costs. Think of it as an expense factor on the top line only. The payment side of the ratio stays the same.
All twelve months matter, including the slow ones. A seasonal cabin cannot present its peak summer alone. Peak months get averaged in with the rest.
For a closer look at how the two evidence packages compare on a cash-out, see Lendmire’s piece Short-Term Rental Cash-Out Refinance: The 12-Month Rental History vs the Market Data Report.
What Counts as a Projection?
A projection estimates what a property could earn, based on comparable listings. It usually comes from a market-data service. Some programs also accept the appraiser’s short-term rental income analysis, depending on the lender. A projection is conditional (“if bookings follow the comps”), while actual statements are realized.
Do not confuse the appraisal with an income source. According to McKissock, an appraiser-education publisher, Form 1007 estimates monthly market rent for single-family and condo investment properties. The lender, not the appraiser, decides how income from all sources counts. That 1007 figure is a long-term rent opinion. It can sit well below what a good short-term rental earns, so a program that defaults to it can leave a property short on paper.
One contrast is worth knowing. Conventional agency guidance is a different world from DSCR. Fannie Mae’s appraiser update ties Form 1007 to one-unit investment properties where rental income is used to qualify. It also notes that the Selling Guide is silent on whether a short-term rental counts as rental income. DSCR programs set their own rules, so none of that binds your file. For two to four units, the matching appraisal form is the 1025, and part of the income can come from long-term leases.
Short-term rental rules can vary by city, county, HOA, and property type, so investors should confirm local rules before relying on projected rental income.
When Actual Statements Are the Better Fit
Choose actual statements when the property has run as a short-term rental for about 12 months. This is the normal refinance case. A lender releasing equity against nightly income wants proof the income is real, not just estimated.
Actual statements fit best when:
- You have a full year of history. Most short-term rental programs expect about 12 months of hosting experience, and a 640 credit score is a typical floor.
- You want cash out. Cash-out on short-term-rental collateral generally tops out around 70% LTV. Documented income gives the file its strongest footing.
- The property performs above the long-term rent opinion. Records prove what an appraiser’s rent schedule cannot.
- Your records are clean. Payouts, deposits, and entity all line up.
Preparation matters here. Missing even one core document is a common reason a submission stalls. Thin history is another common reason a cash-out gets sent back. For how the refinance side works in general, see Lendmire’s piece DSCR Refinance For Short-term Rental Investors.
When a Projection Is the Better Fit
Choose a projection when there is no operating record to show. That is the typical purchase case. On a short-term rental purchase, leverage can reach 75% LTV, and the coverage floor is 1.00, subject to lender guidelines. A market-data report stands in for the history you do not have yet.
A projection also helps in a few edge cases:
- A recent conversion. Only the months since conversion count as short-term income. A rental switched from long-term last quarter has a short clock, whatever the purchase date says. Conversion files usually run through one of three paths: an in-place lease or appraiser rent, booking history to date, or a third-party projection.
- A change of operator or platform. The record may be broken even though the property is established.
- A first-time investor. Some programs restrict projected income for first-time investors, so check before you plan around it.
Be realistic about refinances. Some lenders accept projections and some do not. A projection on a refinance is a program-by-program question, not a right. If your file leans on one, ask early which lenders in the network will look at it.
Same Property, Both Ways
Here is a modeled example. Every figure below is an illustrative assumption, not a market fact or a program term. We use ratios only.
Say the property’s gross short-term income covers the full monthly obligation (principal, interest, taxes, insurance, and HOA, called PITIA) at 1.50x. On actual statements, a 20% factor is applied to the top line. That gives 1.50 × 0.80 = 1.20x.
Now say a market-data report projects gross income that would cover the obligation at 1.90x. A projection may take a heavier factor, so assume 25%. That gives 1.90 × 0.75, or about 1.43x.
The projection looks better on paper. That is common when a listing is new, or when the owner blocks dates for personal use. It does not mean the lender will use the higher number. When both figures exist, a lender may rely on the more conservative supported one, and the rule varies by program. Do not assume you can pick.
The reverse also happens. Strong actuals can beat a modest projection. In a weak short-term market, the long-term rent figure may be the number that clears.
What If the Two Numbers Disagree?
Work through it in this order:
1. Actuals are lower than the projection. Plan on the actuals. Find out why they lag, such as a slow ramp-up or blocked dates, and ask whether a later refinance would look better.
2. Actuals are higher than the projection. Lead with the actuals, and keep your records spotless.
3. You have partial history. With six to nine months, ask which lenders in the network will review it. Some will not.
4. You converted recently. Count only the short-term months, and compare that clock against the other income paths.
5. Both numbers are weak. Run the supported long-term rent figure. A 1.00 coverage ratio is where many select programs start. A separate select-lender path takes coverage below 1.00, with leverage and terms adjusted.
Also run the long-term fallback before you apply. Knowing that number shows how much room the short-term evidence has to miss.
A ratio is not profit. DSCR compares rent to PITIA only. Repairs, vacancy, management, utilities, and capital spending all sit outside the calculation, so clearing 1.00 does not mean the property makes money.
Tax treatment can depend on how the funds are used and how the property is held; investors should keep clear records and speak with a qualified tax professional before relying on any deduction.
Wait or Refinance Now?
If you are a few months short of a full year, the cost of waiting is usually small next to the cost of a stalled file. A full year captures one complete seasonal cycle, including the slow months. It also lifts you over the typical hosting-history expectation.
Refinancing sooner on a fallback can make sense if the long-term rent figure clears on its own. Leverage and terms may be less favorable, though. Weigh the equity you want to reach against the stronger file you could present later.
Key Terms Defined
Trailing 12 months (TTM): the most recent twelve months of income for the property, taken from its own records.
Projection: a market-data estimate of what a short-term rental could earn, used mainly where no operating record exists.
PITIA: principal, interest, taxes, insurance, and HOA dues, the full monthly obligation that rent is measured against.
Haircut (expense factor): a percentage taken off gross short-term income before the ratio is run, because the payment formula ignores operating costs.
Form 1007: the appraiser’s rent schedule, a long-term market rent opinion for single-family and condo properties.
The Verdict
Pick actual statements if you have a full, clean year of results and want the strongest refinance file. Pick a projection if you have no record and the program accepts it. In between, run both numbers, expect the lender to favor the more conservative supported figure, and fix your paperwork before you apply.
A larger down payment or more equity can lower the payment and lift the coverage ratio. It will not erase leverage caps, credit floors, reserve rules, or property eligibility. The strongest files clear both tests: enough equity and enough rental coverage. Reserves vary by lender, leverage, and loan size. Around six months of PITIA is common, and larger loans typically step up. Standard programs go up to $3,000,000, and every file is reviewed individually. For the full picture, read Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will a lender use a projection on a refinance?
Sometimes, but not on most files. Programs vary, and some select lenders in the network will review one while others will not. Actual hosting history of about 12 months is the typical expectation on a short-term rental refinance. A projection is mainly built for properties with no operating record.
What if I have less than a year of history?
Only the short-term months count, so a recent conversion may fall short of the usual expectation. You can compare the income paths: an in-place lease or appraiser rent, booking history so far, or a projection. Which of them works depends on the program. Waiting to complete a full year often produces a stronger file.
Can I use whichever number is higher?
Not reliably. When both figures exist, a lender may rely on the more conservative supported one. That is a program-level rule, so ask before you assume the higher number will count.
Do bank deposits need to match platform statements?
Yes, on most files they should tie out. Underwriters compare payouts to deposits, and mismatches invite questions. Deposits landing in a personal account while the property is held in an LLC are a common flag. Keep the platform, the deposits, and the vesting entity consistent.
Does the answer change for cash-out?
Yes, in emphasis. On a cash-out against short-term-rental collateral, which generally tops out around 70% LTV, lenders want proof the income is real. Documented actuals carry the most weight there. The 1.00 coverage floor and the credit and reserve expectations still apply, subject to lender guidelines.
Next Steps
If you are buying or refinancing a rental property and want to see how the numbers work, Lendmire can help you compare DSCR loan options based on the property income, credit profile, leverage, and investor goals. As a broker arranging financing through select lenders across 41 markets, including Washington, D.C., it can show how your statements and a projection would each look to a reviewer. Every program is subject to lender guidelines, and none of this is a commitment to lend.
About Lendmire
As a DSCR and non-QM mortgage broker, Lendmire — NMLS# 2371349 — connects investors with wholesale lending channels across 41 markets, including Washington, D.C. The property’s rental income, not the borrower’s tax returns, is central to lender review, which works for self-employed operators and portfolios beyond four financed properties. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
Investors focused on short-term rentals can review DSCR loans for Airbnb and short-term rentals.
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References
1. Airbnb generates monthly and annual earnings statements
2. McKissock – Form 1007 and Short-Term Rental Appraisals
3. Fannie Mae – Appraiser Update, June 2024
This article is part of Lendmire’s short-term rental loan program — full qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the program page.
Related reading: How to Qualify a Suburban Texas Short-Term Rental on a DSCR Loan · How to Qualify an LTR Conversion for a Short-Term Rental DSCR Loan · How Much You Can Borrow for a Rate-and-Term Investment Refinance for Business Owners
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
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Required disclosures. Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) operates as a licensed mortgage broker, not a direct lender or depository. The discussion in this article is general in nature and should not be relied upon as financial, legal, or tax advice — every investment scenario is unique and should be reviewed by a qualified professional. Any loan inquiry is subject to lender underwriting, and this article is not a commitment to lend or a guarantee of approval. Mortgage rates, loan terms, and program guidelines vary by borrower, property, and state, and may change without notice. Equal Housing Opportunity. Verify licensure at NMLS Consumer Access.