The Quick Read: It depends on whether the property already operates as a short-term rental. On a purchase with no hosting history, an AirDNA-style projection commonly serves as the income evidence, because no platform statements exist yet. On a refinance or an operating property, lenders usually want actual platform history, and AirDNA becomes a cross-check rather than a replacement.
- New acquisition with no history: a projection report typically carries the income.
- Seasoned STR or refinance: about 12 months of statements is the usual evidence.
- Mixed portfolio: each property is judged on its own record, so you can use both paths in one portfolio.
- Local legality is a separate gate. A strong report does not override restrictions.
- Clearing 1.00 coverage is not the same as positive cash flow.
Operators often hope one good AirDNA run can stand in for a stack of statements. Sometimes it can, but only for the right property.
Key Terms Defined
AirDNA Rentalizer: A tool that estimates a specific address’s revenue, occupancy and daily rate by drawing on comparable listings.
ADR (average daily rate): Revenue per booked night, which in AirDNA’s method includes the cleaning fee.
DSCR (debt service coverage ratio): Monthly rental income divided by the monthly obligation of principal, interest, taxes, insurance and any HOA dues (PITIA).
Haircut: A lender’s reduction to gross short-term income before the coverage ratio is calculated.
Seasoning: The waiting period or track record a lender wants before relying on a property’s income.
What Is the Difference Between a Projection and a Statement?
A projection is a modeled estimate of what a property could earn. A statement is a record of what it did earn. Lenders treat these very differently, and that single distinction explains most of the answer.
AirDNA’s help center explains that its revenue figure is built from nightly rates and cleaning fees, less service fees and discounts. Its ADR methodology adds that ADR includes the host-set cleaning fee and excludes Airbnb service fees. In its example, five nights at $250 plus a $200 cleaning fee produce an ADR of $290. So AirDNA’s daily rate is not the same as your listed nightly price.
Airbnb’s side is different. Its earnings statements show gross earnings, adjustments, the host service fee, taxes withheld and net pay. They also show nights booked and average stay. You can break them out by listing and export them as a CSV or PDF.
| Factor | AirDNA projection | Airbnb statements |
|---|---|---|
| Data type | Modeled estimate | Actual records |
| Based on | Comparable listings | Your own bookings |
| Best use | Purchase, no history | Operating STR, refinance |
| Weak spot | Can miss property quirks | Short or uneven history |
| Lender scrutiny | Comps and report quality | Reconciliation to deposits |
When Can a Projection Stand In?
A projection works best when there is nothing else to measure. That means a new purchase, a long-term rental being converted, or a property you have not yet hosted.
Across the wholesale network Lendmire works with, short-term rental purchases are reviewed on projected income from a market data report, often alongside an appraiser’s short-term rental opinion. Select programs allow purchase leverage up to 75% LTV on the strongest files, with a credit score of 640 or higher and a coverage floor of 1.00 on purchases. These are typical guideline ranges, subject to lender guidelines, and not a commitment to lend.
For an operator, this is the scaling advantage. A DSCR purchase can qualify on the property’s own projected numbers. A bank-statement approach, by contrast, says nothing about what the specific property can earn. Lendmire’s piece Market Data Report Requirements For STR Loans covers what the report usually needs to show.
Lenders do not take a projection at face value. They look at the quality of the comps, the market score and how recent the report is. They also typically apply a haircut before dividing by PITIA. That haircut varies from lender to lender, and the network does not use a single universal factor.
When Do You Need Actual Statements?
Statements are needed whenever the property already operates as a rental, and they are the norm on refinances. On most files, lenders expect about 12 months of hosting history. On the program side, STR refinances run up to around 70% LTV with a 1.00 coverage floor. STR cash-out also tops out at 70% LTV, while standard long-term rentals on a cash-out go to 75%.
Why do lenders prefer the records? Because statements are observed, and projections are modeled. MagicBnB notes that AirDNA does not see actual host payouts and instead models revenue from public listing signals. A lender underwriting a seasoned property would rather see what happened.
Statements also have blind spots: a short history, owner-use gaps, and seasonality. But they describe your property, not a neighborhood average.
What Happens When You Have Both?
When both exist and they disagree, the lender reads the gap. Some lenders reportedly use whichever figure is higher on a refinance. That is lender-specific, not a universal rule, so ask before you plan around it.
The error can run either direction. In one BiggerPockets thread, a host’s projection showed 67% occupancy and a $244 ADR, while actual results were 76% and $259. The same thread includes a lender who said they compare 12 months of actuals against AirDNA when underwriting actuals. That is one practitioner’s account, not a rule.
If your statements beat the comps, they are your stronger document. If actuals lag the projection, a projection-based path may exist only on purchase. If your revenue sits far above the submarket, expect questions. It can happen that underwriting looks harder at the file.
Be careful with AirDNA’s own accuracy claims. AirDNA reports accuracy of 95-99% when benchmarked against Airbnb aggregate totals. That is a vendor claim about market-level totals, not a promise about your single address.
How Does This Work for a Portfolio Operator?
Each property is judged on its own evidence. A portfolio is not one document. It is a set of files, and you can mix evidence types across them.
| Portfolio situation | Likely lead evidence |
|---|---|
| All properties seasoned | Statements per listing |
| All new acquisitions | Projection report per address |
| Mixed seasoned and new | Statements on old, projections on new |
| Recently converted from long-term | Projection until history builds |
| Multi-platform or manager-run | Consolidated platform and manager statements |
Airbnb’s earnings dashboard lets you run custom reports by listing and date range, back to the month hosting began. That makes per-property statements practical even with many doors. Add VRBO and property-manager statements for anything booked elsewhere.
The practical pattern is simple. Buy on projections, season the property, then refinance on statements. Operators who keep clean per-listing records get to use both tools in sequence. For the broader picture, see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
One practitioner-level pattern: in files where an operator holds both seasoned and brand-new STRs, the new purchases often go through smoothly on projections, while the refinances stall over messy records. The fix is mostly bookkeeping. Reconcile each report total to bank deposits before the file goes to a lender.
How Do You Read the Coverage Math?
The ratio is the income figure, divided by 12, usually reduced by a lender factor, then divided by PITIA. No dollars are needed to see the shape.
Say a purchase projection, after the lender’s haircut, comes out at around 1.15x coverage. That clears the 1.00 floor on a purchase program, subject to lender guidelines. Now say the same property’s statements, after the same treatment, come in near 1.30x. Those statements are the stronger file, and they may open better pricing and leverage.
Now flip it. A projection that lands near 0.95x is below the 1.00 floor of most standard short-term programs. Coverage below 1.00 is available through select lenders in the network, with leverage and terms adjusted. Qualification stays subject to lender guidelines, credit approval and property review.
One caution matters more than any ratio. DSCR compares income to PITIA only. Cleaning, management, supplies, platform fees, utilities, vacancy and capex sit outside it. Clearing 1.00 does not mean the property cash flows.
The cleaning-fee trap is real too. A BiggerPockets discussion notes that AirDNA revenue includes cleaning fees while PriceLabs excludes them. Mixing the two tools misstates returns.
What Should You Assemble Before You Apply?
For an operating property:
- Airbnb earnings reports per listing, exported as PDF or CSV.
- VRBO and property-manager statements for the same period.
- Bank deposits reconciled to payouts. Report totals should tie to deposits, give or take transfer timing.
- Watch for double-counting when you combine reports.
For a new purchase:
- A published report for the specific address, showing revenue, occupancy and ADR.
- A report date reasonably close to the transaction.
- Enough comparable listings to make the estimate meaningful.
- Proof that short-term use is allowed there.
Short-term rental rules can vary by city, county, HOA, and property type, so investors should confirm local rules before relying on projected rental income. Legal operation is checked separately from the revenue math. A strong projection does not rescue a restricted property.
Ownership structure matters too. LLC-held properties can be eligible, subject to program terms.
Common Mistakes
Treating the projection as actual income. It is a model built from comps. It cannot see off-platform bookings, and BiggerPockets members note that direct bookings are not captured, which can skew occupancy.
Ignoring blocked dates and long stays. A winter booked by a single guest at a discounted nightly price may not register as booked in the model.
Assuming revenue is net income. AirDNA revenue is gross, before operating expenses.
Skipping the legality check. A great report does not override local rules.
Expecting one run to be the lender’s number. It is an input. Lenders review it and decide.
Tax treatment can depend on how the funds are used and how the property is held; investors should keep clear records and speak with a qualified tax professional before relying on any deduction.
Frequently Asked Questions
Do I need both AirDNA and Airbnb statements?
Not always. On a new purchase, the projection usually carries the file. On an operating property or a refinance, statements lead, and a projection is a useful cross-check. Having both gives the lender two angles and lets you see early whether the numbers agree.
Does an AirDNA projection work on a refinance?
Usually not as the primary evidence. On most files, refinances of operating STRs rely on about 12 months of actual history. STR refinance leverage runs up to around 70% LTV, subject to lender guidelines. Some lenders may weigh both sources, but that is lender-specific.
What if my statements are lower than the projection?
Expect the lender to lean on the statements, since they are actual results. A lower record can reduce the income used and the resulting coverage ratio. A larger down payment can lift coverage, but it does not erase leverage caps, credit floors or reserve rules.
Can I use AirDNA if I have no hosting experience?
It depends on the program. STR programs commonly expect about 12 months of hosting experience, with a credit score of 640 or higher. Operators with a track record on other properties are generally in a stronger position than first-time hosts.
Does a strong AirDNA report override local STR rules?
No. Legality is checked separately from the revenue math. Confirm local rules before relying on projected income.
If you are buying or refinancing a rental property and want to see how the numbers work, Lendmire can help you compare DSCR loan options based on the property income, credit profile, leverage, and investor goals.
Investors focused on short-term rentals can review DSCR loans for Airbnb and short-term rentals.
About Lendmire
Lendmire is a DSCR-focused mortgage brokerage, NMLS# 2371349, placing investor loans across 41 markets, including Washington, D.C. DSCR eligibility is generally reviewed by the lender around a property’s rental income rather than personal income documentation, which fits LLC-held rentals, self-employed investors, and portfolios scaling past conventional financed-property limits. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
1. AirDNA Help: How does AirDNA calculate ADR
3. MagicBnB
4. BiggerPockets: How accurate is AirDNA for STR revenue projection
6. Airbnb Resource Center: earnings dashboard
This article is part of Lendmire’s short-term rental loan program — full qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the program page.
Related reading: How the DSCR Airbnb Income Haircut Works for Out-of-State STR Buyers · Can You Get an Airbnb Loan With One Year of Bookings? · How Airbnb DSCR Income Haircut Rules Work for STR Portfolio Operators
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
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Compliance and disclosures. Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) is a licensed mortgage broker and is not a direct lender, depository institution, financial advisor, or tax professional. Content in this article is general market analysis and educational information — not financial, legal, or tax advice for any specific situation. Lendmire does not guarantee loan approval; every transaction is subject to underwriting by the funding lender. Mortgage pricing and loan program guidelines are subject to change at any time without notice and vary by borrower characteristics, property type, and state regulations. Lendmire complies with Equal Housing Opportunity. Licensure verification: NMLS Consumer Access.