The Quick Read: Rarely, and only through a narrow set of select lenders. On a refinance, most DSCR programs count the property’s own booking history, usually about 12 months of hosting records, because real results replace estimates. A projection from a market-data report is mainly a purchase tool. When a refinance does allow one, expect heavier discounting, adjusted leverage, and fewer lenders to choose from.
- Purchases lean on an appraiser’s short-term-rental analysis or a market-data projection, because no booking history exists yet.
- Refinances lean on actual platform payouts and bank deposits.
- Short-term-rental (STR) refinance leverage typically tops out around 70%, versus up to 75% on an STR purchase.
- Coverage starts at 1.00 on select programs, and lenders trim projected revenue before counting it.
- A seasoned Airbnb usually makes a stronger refinance file than a pro forma does.
Why Does a Refinance Treat Projections Differently Than a Purchase?
A lender on a purchase has nothing else to look at, so it accepts an estimate. A lender on a refinance can see what the property actually earned. When real numbers exist, an estimate looks weaker by comparison.
DSCR Cash-Out Calculator
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Think about the lender’s position. If the property has been booked for a year, the payout records settle the question. If it has never been booked, the lender is asked to trust a model.
That is why this question comes up mostly in two situations. One is a long-term rental that an owner converted to Airbnb. The other is a rehab finished under the BRRRR strategy (buy, rehab, rent, refinance, repeat) on a property that has never hosted a guest. Both owners hope the pro forma can carry the loan. Across the wholesale network Lendmire works with, the honest answer is that a few select lenders will review a projection on a refinance, with conditions attached. Lendmire’s piece Can a Short-Term Rental Skip 12-Month History on a DSCR Cash-Out? covers that narrow path.
What Counts as Projected Airbnb Income?
Three different things get called “projected income.” Lenders treat them very differently.
| Income basis | Who produces it | Typical lender attitude |
|---|---|---|
| Market-data projection | STR data company report | Accepted on purchases; discounted |
| Appraiser’s STR analysis | Appraiser, as a narrative addendum | Common on purchases |
| Long-term rent schedule | Appraiser, standard rent form | The fallback, often thin |
| Actual platform history | Your own payout records | The default on refinances |
The market-data projection. Tools like AirDNA’s Rentalizer pick nearby comparable listings and project revenue from their trailing performance, using average daily rate, occupancy, and seasonality, per VaultSTR’s breakdown of how Rentalizer works. Each projection also carries a Comp Set Strength score, so a reviewer can see how solid the comps are.
The appraiser’s analysis. Appraisers use a form for the standard rent estimate. They add a narrative section when nightly rental data matters. More on that below.
The long-term rent fallback. If no STR evidence exists, the appraiser’s long-term rent is the number left. It often produces thin coverage on a property priced for vacation demand.
How Do Lenders Treat a Projection When They Accept One?
They trim it first. The lender discounts gross STR revenue before counting it as income, and that haircut hits only the income side. The full monthly obligation stays whole.
Here is how that plays out. DSCR (debt service coverage ratio) is the property’s qualifying monthly income divided by PITIA. PITIA is principal, interest, taxes, insurance, and any HOA dues. If gross STR revenue covers the payment at a strong ratio, a haircut can pull that ratio down noticeably while the payment stays put.
The projection also tends to run optimistic. Independent testing summarized by VaultSTR’s AirDNA review puts property-level Rentalizer estimates 15–30% off actual results, usually on the high side. Lenders know this, which is why they discount.
A reviewer might see that and cut the number further, or decline to use it at all.
What Does the Appraisal Do for Short-Term Rental Income?
Less than most investors expect. The appraisal feeds the lender’s decision, but it does not capture nightly pricing on its own.
The standard single-family rent form, Form 1007, estimates monthly market rent for a one-unit investment property, per Fannie Mae’s appraiser guidance. Form 1025 covers 2-4 unit properties. McKissock’s appraisal education piece notes that the 1007 documents monthly rent, not nightly rent or business income, and that the lender ultimately decides what income counts. We use these forms here only for their names and purpose, because DSCR programs set their own rules.
So a 1007 figure often sits well below STR potential. Appraisers who handle STRs well add a labeled narrative addendum with nightly comps. Multi-unit STRs usually need that supplement for each unit, since the 1025 was built around monthly leases.
Which Route Fits Your Situation?
Your property’s history decides your route. Here is how the common cases sort out.
Newly bought, no bookings yet. You probably used a projection to buy. A refinance right away faces the same evidence gap, plus seasoning, which is the waiting period a lender wants between purchase and refinance. About 6 months is the common expectation on cash-outs across most of the network, and the clock starts at the recorded deed.
Long-term rental converted to Airbnb. This is the core projected-income case. A narrow set of lenders may review a projection. The fallback is the appraiser’s long-term rent, which can leave coverage thin.
Operating, but with a short history. Some lenders accept a partial history paired with market data. Others want the full 12 months. Programs differ widely here, so asking before you order an appraisal saves money.
Fully seasoned, 12 months of bookings. This is the cleanest file. Real payouts replace the model, and more lenders will review it.
BRRRR exit. Seasoning decides whether the lender sizes the loan off appraised value or off your cost basis. If the plan is to cash out soon after the rehab, a bridge loan may carry you until the property has history.
What the Numbers Look Like Across the Network
Here is the program picture for STR files through select lenders in Lendmire’s wholesale network. These are typical ranges, not promises. Every file is underwritten individually and subject to lender guidelines.
- Leverage: an STR purchase typically goes up to 75% LTV on the strongest files. An STR cash-out or refinance goes up to about 70% LTV on short-term-rental collateral. Standard long-term rentals reach around 75% on a cash-out.
- Coverage: 1.00 is where select STR programs start, on both purchases and refinances. Stronger ratios open better pricing and leverage. Coverage below 1.00 is available through select lenders in the network, with leverage and terms adjusted.
- Credit: a 640 score is the typical STR minimum. Higher scores improve the options.
- Experience: lenders generally expect about 12 months of hosting history.
- Loan size: up to $3,000,000 on standard programs, with smaller balances routed through select lenders.
- Reserves: these vary by lender, leverage, and loan size, commonly around 6 months of PITIA.
Two tests apply at once. The coverage test and the LTV cap both have to clear, and whichever binds first sets the loan size. A bigger down payment or more equity can lift your coverage, but it never erases a credit floor, a reserve rule, or a property restriction. The complete DSCR loans guide lays out how those pieces fit together.
One more limit: manufactured homes, log homes, and barndominiums are not offered in these DSCR programs, however strong the rental income looks.
A Worked Example: One Property, Three Income Bases
Run the numbers on a single-family vacation rental with a modeled monthly payment you leave constant. These are illustrative ratios, not market data.
- Long-term rent schedule only: coverage lands near 0.90x. That sits below the 1.00 start point for most select programs.
- STR analysis with a lender haircut: coverage lifts to about 1.25x after the discount.
- Raw, untrimmed projection: coverage looks higher still, but no lender counts it at full value.
The takeaway is that the same property swings from a weak file to a workable one depending on which evidence the lender accepts. On the 0.90x version, a sub-1.00 path through select lenders may be reviewed, with lower leverage and adjusted terms. Eligibility still depends on credit approval, property review, and lender guidelines.
Substitute your own figures. The illustrative calculator on this site can help you test the ratio.
Documentation: Actuals Versus Projection
For an operating property, gather:
- Airbnb or Vrbo payout exports for the full history
- Bank statements showing the matching deposits
- A property manager’s statement, if you use one
- Records that tie payouts to deposits cleanly
For a projection, gather:
- A market-data report with its Comp Set Strength score
- An appraiser’s STR analysis or narrative addendum
- Evidence that the property can legally operate as a rental
Keep exports and deposits clean from the first booking. Messy records are the most avoidable reason a file gets discounted harder than it should.
Short-term rental rules can vary by city, county, HOA, and property type, so investors should confirm local rules before relying on projected rental income.
Where Investors Get This Wrong
Treating the projection as qualifying income. The AirDNA headline number is not what gets counted. Lenders discount it.
Assuming a purchase approach works on a refinance. The two transactions use different evidence.
Expecting the appraisal to capture nightly rates. It is a monthly-rent form unless a narrative addendum is added.
Reading 1.00 as cash flow. DSCR compares rent to PITIA only. Repairs, vacancy, management, utilities, and capex sit outside the calculation, so clearing 1.00 does not mean the property cash flows.
Calling seasoning a law. It is lender policy, which is why it differs from program to program.
Tax treatment can depend on how the funds are used and how the property is held; investors should keep clear records and speak with a qualified tax professional before relying on any deduction.
If the Numbers Don’t Work
You have four moves, each with a tradeoff.
1. Wait and build history. Run the property as an STR for a full year. The refinance gets cheaper and the lender set widens. This costs time.
2. Take a smaller loan. Lower leverage lifts coverage. You pull out less cash.
3. File on long-term rent. This works if the rent schedule clears coverage. It often undersells a vacation property.
4. Use a select-lender projection path. It exists, with heavier discounting, adjusted leverage, and a narrow lender list.
The stronger play is often the first one, though an investor with a tight bridge window could reasonably argue for the fourth. It is a genuine tradeoff between speed of access to capital and cost.
A practitioner note: across files like these, the ones that stall are rarely about the projection itself. They stall because the owner can’t show clean payout-to-deposit records, or because the 1007 came back far below the STR analysis and nobody planned for the gap. Ask a broker which evidence a lender will accept before you pay for an appraisal.
Key Terms Defined
DSCR: the property’s qualifying monthly income divided by its monthly PITIA.
PITIA: principal, interest, taxes, insurance, and any HOA dues.
LTV: loan-to-value, the loan balance as a percentage of the property’s value.
Seasoning: the waiting period a lender wants between an event, such as a purchase, and a refinance.
Haircut: the discount a lender applies to gross rental revenue before counting it as income.
Form 1007 / Form 1025: appraisal forms that estimate monthly market rent for one-unit and 2-4 unit properties.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can I refinance an Airbnb that has no booking history?
Only through a narrow set of select lenders, and with a discount. Most programs want about 12 months of hosting records. If you can’t wait, expect lower leverage, a heavier haircut, and possibly a fallback to the appraiser’s long-term rent.
Is a purchase easier than a refinance for projected income?
Yes, on this point. A purchase has no operating history, so lenders accept an appraiser’s STR analysis or a market-data report. A refinance can use real results, so the projection is the exception.
Does the AirDNA number count in full?
No. Lenders trim projected revenue before counting it, and independent testing finds property-level estimates run 15–30% off actuals, usually high, per VaultSTR. Treat it as a starting point.
What leverage can I expect on an STR refinance?
Typically up to about 70% LTV on an STR cash-out or refinance, subject to lender guidelines. An STR purchase can reach 75% on the strongest files. Credit, reserves, and coverage all affect where a file lands.
Does a DSCR above 1.00 mean the property cash flows?
No. The ratio compares rent to PITIA only. Vacancy, repairs, management, and capex sit outside it, so run your own full budget.
What to Do Next
If you are buying or refinancing a rental property and want to see how the numbers work, Lendmire can help you compare DSCR loan options based on the property income, credit profile, leverage, and investor goals. Reach the team at 828-256-2183 or request a quote.
A property that has hosted guests for a full year argues its own case, and a pro forma never will.
For current guidelines and terms, see Lendmire’s DSCR loan programs page.
About Lendmire
Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) is a mortgage brokerage focused on DSCR investor financing, helping arrange programs through wholesale and investor-lending channels in 41 markets, including Washington, D.C. DSCR loans are evaluated by the lender on property cash flow rather than personal income, subject to lender guidelines, supporting LLC closings and accommodating investors with four or more financed properties. Scotsman Guide Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
1. VaultSTR: How AirDNA Rentalizer Builds Projections
3. Fannie Mae Appraiser Update
4. McKissock: Form 1007 and Short-Term Rental Appraisals
This article is part of Lendmire’s short-term rental loan program — full qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the program page.
Related reading: Projected vs History Income for a DSCR Loan on a New Condotel STR · Preemption States vs Enforcement States for a DSCR Airbnb Loan · How to Document Seasonal Airbnb Income With No Operating History
Brandon Miller
Founder & CEO, Mortgage Loan Originator, Lendmire LLC
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Disclosures. The information presented in this article is general market commentary, not financial, legal, or tax advice. Lendmire is a mortgage brokerage (NMLS# 2371349) — not a direct lender or depository institution — and loan placement is subject to lender underwriting. Nothing in this content represents a commitment to lend. Loan terms, pricing, and program availability vary based on borrower qualifications, property characteristics, and state of subject property, and are subject to change at any time. Lendmire complies with Equal Housing Opportunity requirements. Consumer access: nmlsconsumeraccess.org.