The Quick Read: As of September 28, 2026, the usual holiday lull looks like a buyer’s friend. Supply is the highest in over a decade, and builders are cutting prices. But financing costs have risen four straight weeks, according to Freddie Mac. A buyer who waits for a quiet December may lose in borrowing costs what they gain in negotiating room.
Key Takeaways
- Existing-home supply reached 4.9 months in August, per NAR’s report of September 10, 2026. That is real leverage.
- Freddie Mac’s 30-year average rose four weeks in a row, ending at 7.03% for the week of September 24, 2026.
- Builders are the most motivated sellers. Price cuts and incentives are widespread, per surveys reported September 25, 2026.
- Waiting has a price. Leverage is certain today, while next month’s rates are not.
- Lock when the deal works. Don’t bet on December.
What Changed in the Last Four Weeks
Rates climbed, and the climb was not small. Freddie Mac’s survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% for the week of September 24, 2026. That was up from 6.95% the week before. A year earlier it was 6.30%.
The path matters more than the endpoint. Freddie Mac’s weekly releases show 6.71% on September 3, 6.76% on September 10, 6.95% on September 17 and 7.03% on September 24. From the August 27 reading, that is a 37 basis point move in a month. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.
The Mortgage Bankers Association saw the same thing. Its survey for the week ending September 18, released September 23, 2026, put its 30-year contract rate at 7.12%. That was up from 6.97% and, per the MBA’s chief economist, the highest since May 2024. Refinance applications ran well below a year earlier. In the same MBA survey, the share of applications for adjustable-rate loans rose to its highest level in some time.
These gauges do not match, and that is fine. Freddie Mac averages the prior week’s applications. The MBA measures contract rates on its own survey. Mortgage News Daily’s index closed at 7.43% on September 25, 2026, because it reads daily pricing. Different methods, different timing. Same direction.
One more caveat. Freddie Mac’s survey covers conventional, conforming purchase loans for borrowers with 20% down and excellent credit. It is a headline, not a quote. Your own pricing depends on your file. Exact terms depend on the lender’s guidelines, property type, leverage, and a full review of the borrower’s file.
Why they rose. The MBA’s chart of the week, published around September 25, 2026, said the 10-year Treasury yield was close to 5.2%, against about 4% in February. It pointed to energy prices tied to the Iran war, inflation, tighter-policy expectations and federal debt. The MBA also forecast rates near 6.8% in the coming quarters. A forecast is a view, not a promise.
The Fed added to the mood. On September 16, 2026, the FOMC raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3¾–4%. It was the first hike since 2023. The Fed does not set mortgage rates directly. Long-term loan costs follow Treasury yields and inflation expectations. Still, the signal is plain: policy is not easing.
Supply grew, and builders blinked. NAR’s August report, released September 10, 2026, showed existing-home sales down 2.0% from July. The annual pace was 3.98 million. Inventory was 1.62 million homes, a 4.9-month supply. NAR described that as the highest in over a decade. It was 4.6 months in July and a year earlier.
The median existing-home price was $429,100, up 1.6% from a year earlier, per HousingWire’s coverage. That was the 38th straight annual gain. So more supply has not meant falling prices in the resale market.
New construction tells a different story. Census data released September 24, 2026 showed new-home sales at a 684,000 annual rate and a median price of $393,700, down 5.8% from a year ago. The margins of error are large, so treat single-month moves with care. There were 483,000 new homes for sale, an 8.5-month supply. The builder survey reported by Inman on September 25 found 38% of builders cut prices in September. And 66% used incentives, the highest share since December. The average cut held at 6%.
What It Means for Home Buyers
Leverage is real, but it is uneven. In the resale market, buyers have more choice and more room to ask for repairs, credits or time. NAR’s chief economist said the supply is giving buyers better opportunities to negotiate. In new construction, the sellers are already cutting and buying down financing costs.
Demand has not rushed in. HousingWire reported on September 24, 2026 that builders’ efforts have not produced a broader demand recovery. Buyers are hesitating over rates, geopolitics and job worries. That hesitation is exactly why sellers are flexible.
Investor and second-home buyers made up 15% of existing-home sales in August, down from 21% a year earlier, per RealtyWire’s summary of NAR data. All-cash buyers were 27%. Fewer investors competing is part of the leverage story. Note that the leverage is for buyers who can finance at today’s costs.
Here is the tension in plain terms. The holiday lull pulls competition out of the market. Fewer showings, fewer offers, tired sellers. But rates do not take the holidays off. A buyer who waits until a December discount is hunting for a few thousand dollars of concessions while the financing cost moves on its own schedule.
A plain hypothetical shows the size of the risk. If a rate moves from 7% to 7.5%, that half point is a real change in what a loan costs over its life. A seller credit may or may not cover it. You have to run both sides of the trade, not just the one you can see.
Is This Finally a Buyer’s Market?
Partly. Supply at 4.9 months is the highest in over a decade, and that is a genuine shift. But the median resale price is still rising nationally, and inventory is not above its pre-pandemic level. National sales were also about 1.6% higher year to date. Not every market looks like the national number, and no single market’s figures describe the country.
The sharper read is by segment. New construction is a buyer’s market in spirit: price cuts, incentives, plenty of supply. Resale is a balanced market tilting toward buyers. Neither is a crash. Anyone telling you 4.9 months means prices are falling is reading the wrong table.
My Take
My read: the holiday lull is overrated as a strategy and underrated as a bonus. Plenty of articles tell buyers to wait for December because sellers are desperate. That premise is thinly sourced. The only seasonal claim in my research was one real estate executive saying fall usually brings less competition. I found no data on December price cuts or December rate behavior.
What I can say is that the leverage is already here. Supply is up now. Builders are cutting now. Rates moved up 37 basis points in four weeks, and the Fed’s own projections point to a possible further hike this year, per CNBC’s report on the September 16 meeting. Markets were pricing roughly one more hike by December.
Could rates fall back? Sure. The MBA’s own forecast is lower than today’s level. The 10-year yield swings with inflation, energy and Middle East headlines. I would not bet a purchase on any of them. The honest answer is that nobody knows, and that is the point. Waiting converts a known advantage into an unknown one.
The other thing I’d flag is the buyers who read the headline price as their own. Freddie Mac’s figure is for prime conforming loans. Self-employed borrowers, investors and anyone using alternative documentation price differently. A secondary-market analytics firm noted on September 29, 2026 that full-documentation and investor loans were performing better than bank-statement paper. That is one vendor’s qualitative view, so weigh it lightly. But it is a reminder that “the rate” depends on the loan.
What I’d Do Now
Decide on the house first, then the calendar. If you’ve found a property that works at today’s financing cost, the quiet season is not a reason to hold off. Use it to negotiate. If the numbers only work at a lower rate, you are speculating on rates, and you should know it.
Some practical moves for buyers in this stretch:
- Ask for the concession that fits the seller. Builders are already buying down financing costs and cutting prices. Resale sellers may prefer repairs or credits to a price cut.
- Lock when the deal works. A rate lock is an agreement that holds your pricing for a set period while the loan is processed. If you like the deal and the loan fits, lock it. Floating means leaving the rate unlocked and hoping it falls. It is a bet, and it can lose.
- Compare quotes from the same day. Quotes gathered on different days are not comparable, especially in a month like this one. A quote from two weeks ago reflects a different market.
- Look at structure, not only price. Adjustable-rate loans are drawing more applications for a reason. They carry their own risks, and they suit some timelines better than others. Understand the adjustment rules before you choose one.
- Think about your documentation. Self-employed buyers and investors often fit programs built around bank statements or property income rather than tax-return income. Our loan options page carries the current guidelines, subject to lender guidelines and your file.
- Consider whether renting first is a plan. Some buyers are better served by waiting on purpose. I’ve written about when renting makes you a better real estate investor, and the logic applies to buyers who aren’t ready.
One timing note. NAR’s next existing-home sales report is due October 13, 2026. If supply keeps climbing there, the leverage story gets stronger. If sales slide further, expect sellers to flex more. Either way, the report is worth a look before you make a decision.
If you’re weighing a purchase or a refinance this fall, Lendmire can walk you through how the current programs fit your file.
For the end-to-end picture of how these loans work — qualification, structures, and the full process — see Lendmire’s complete DSCR loans guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will mortgage rates drop after the holidays?
Nobody can say. The MBA forecasts rates near 6.8% in the coming quarters, below its 7.12% reading for the week ending September 18, 2026. But markets were pricing another Fed hike by December, and the 10-year yield depends on inflation and energy prices. I’d plan for today’s rates and treat any decline as a bonus.
Is it smarter to wait for December to buy?
Only if the numbers work either way. Fewer buyers in December can mean more negotiating room. But rates rose four straight weeks through September 24, 2026, and I found no data showing December discounts reliably beat rate risk. Buyers who have found the right home shouldn’t hand a known advantage back to chance.
Does 4.9 months of supply mean prices are falling?
No. NAR’s median existing-home price was still up 1.6% from a year earlier in August. The price declines are in new construction, where the Census median fell 5.8% from a year ago. Supply gives buyers more choice and more room to negotiate. It has not yet turned resale prices down nationally.
Do builder incentives mean new construction is the better deal?
Often it’s worth a look, but compare carefully. About two-thirds of builders were using incentives in September, per the survey reported September 25, 2026. The best incentive depends on your file and the loan. Compare the total cost of the deal, not only the headline price cut, and check how long any financing buydown lasts.
About Lendmire
Lendmire, NMLS# 2371349, is a mortgage broker with two platforms: DSCR investor lending across 41 markets, including Washington, D.C., and consumer mortgage programs in 16 states, all arranged through wholesale lending partners. This column is written by Lendmire’s founder and reflects the market as of its publication date; program terms and availability are set by the lender on each file. Scotsman Guide named Lendmire a Top Mortgage Workplace in both 2025 and 2026.
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References
1. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
2. Federal Reserve, September 16, 2026 implementation note
3. NAR August existing-home sales
4. HousingWire, existing-home sales
6. RealtyWire, existing-home sales
This article is part of Lendmire’s Mortgage News series — every loan program’s qualification details, guidelines, and scenarios live on the loan options page.
Related reading: The Right Location To Buy A Home As Rates Climb In September 2026 · Buying A Home This Holiday Season: Buyer Leverage Grows As September Rates Climb · Buying A Home After School Starts: Four Weeks Of Rising Rates, More Leverage
Brandon Miller
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Compliance and disclosures. Lendmire (NMLS# 2371349) is a licensed mortgage broker and is not a direct lender, depository institution, financial advisor, or tax professional. Content in this article is general market analysis and educational information — not financial, legal, or tax advice for any specific situation. Lendmire does not guarantee loan approval; every transaction is subject to underwriting by the funding lender. Mortgage pricing and loan program guidelines are subject to change at any time without notice and vary by borrower characteristics, property type, and state regulations. Lendmire complies with Equal Housing Opportunity. Licensure verification: NMLS Consumer Access.